Do you have the balls to Lose, But not the balls to Win? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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Do you have the balls to Lose, But not the balls to Win?

  • #21
  • Mar 5, 2013 8:54am Mar 5, 2013 8:54am
Episode 129: Probabilities, Uncertainties and The Truth About Trading

http://traderspodcast.com/episode129/
tradewith60
  • #22
  • Mar 5, 2013 8:56am Mar 5, 2013 8:56am
Quoting 60minuteman
Episode 129: Probabilities, Uncertainties and The Truth About Trading

http://traderspodcast.com/episode129/
Hey got your live curve on display, nice work. Is your system mechanical?

Could you program it?
Time hides Nothing
  • #23
  • Mar 5, 2013 9:07am Mar 5, 2013 9:07am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey got your live curve on display, nice work. Is your system mechanical?

Could you program it?
You could program it, would be pretty complicated to do it well though...
tradewith60
  • #24
  • Mar 5, 2013 7:32pm Mar 5, 2013 7:32pm
Interesting question Cindy. I think confidence comes before discipline, but discipline is required for proper execution of trading strategy. You need confidence in your trading abilities, where you can pick good trading opportunities, are aware of risks, can pick a good entry, can actually understand where the targets are (might be), can pick up on the signals that your trade is over, etc. You get this confidence by watching the market do what your strategy said it would do, and developing an understanding of what it looks like when your strategy is not going to deliver expected/anticipate results. Discipline gets you to the next step, and without it your stategy will never pay off. Proper money management is perhaps the glue that holds it all together. Start the trade off with a small opening position, knowing that your strategy is to add to the trade as it develops. Once you start adding to winning positions and hold to targets, the 20 to 30 pip loss at the front end of the trade becomes insignificant. And yes, it sucks to have a trade that was once up 60 pips come back to break even, but you probably missed the opportunity to take some profits as it pulled back. Yep, good question. It takes balls to enter the trade that loses 20 pips, but it takes bigger balls to get 500 due to the nature of forex PA.
  • #25
  • Mar 5, 2013 10:41pm Mar 5, 2013 10:41pm
very nice question / thread cindy...im looking for what you have to say about that...and of course what everyone else have to say

"In other words, you have the balls to Lose (by trading more aggressively after taking some losses) but not the balls to win (maybe you make a small win and call it a day because you don't want to be greedy (but really it is that you fear giving back what you've made)."

i`m in this place for over 1y now (after 3 succesfull years) and from my point of view i`ve tried all i can thnk of (reduce risk to almost 0.2% acc/trade, read psichology books...etc)

to cut it short: i`ll be following this thread
  • #26
  • Mar 5, 2013 11:38pm Mar 5, 2013 11:38pm
Quoting CindyXXXX

In other words, you have the balls to Lose (by trading more aggressively after taking some losses) but not the balls to win (maybe you make a small win and call it a day because you don't want to be greedy (but really it is that you fear giving back what you've made).

G/L
Great food for thought Cindy, and I have previously thought about this in depth. My take on it is pretty much exactly what BBCMicro was referring to by relating this situation to the casino.

I have since decided because of exactly what I quoted you on up there^, that I will never stop trading because I am satisfied with today's gains. I will stop trading when there are no opportunities, I'm tired, somewhere to be, etc... but never because I'm in the green. Theoretically, like BBCMicro was mentioning, the more time you put in trading (the more bets the casino has against them), the more profitable you will be over time. So if I'm at +$1,000 on the day and keep trading, although I might screw up and turn that into $600 today, over enough amount of time doing this I will add to my profits by not stopping at that +$1,000. This is of course depending on the fact you are a consistent trader.

My take on it.
  • #27
  • Mar 6, 2013 1:41am Mar 6, 2013 1:41am
GREED IS GOOD.. remember that!!.. greed is good in all its shapes and forms.. greed for money, greed for life...

..to have the balls to win you'll need to be greedy as a trader.. greed will will you to accept risk and riskier.. if we can't cope with that, you and I better look for something else pal.
  • #28
  • Mar 6, 2013 2:04am Mar 6, 2013 2:04am
Quoting CindyXXXX
So what about the 10 trades that were up 30 - 60 pips that stopped you out at B/E before you hit your 10R?

Again though, the focus of this thread is on your actions and reactions to win streaks and loss streaks and how they affect your work rate. Not talking about trades specifically.
After analysing large number of my trades, simple system take 10R and move stop up bit by bit produces best equity with smallest drawdown. Easy to comprehend but hard to do. You need conviction in your system to be able to do that.


this is hard part :
-----------------
You can get conviction with proving to yourself beyond a doubt, that it is real edge what you use and not just some random pattern that lasts couple of months.
-------------------

then get fukin RICH !!!
  • #29
  • Mar 6, 2013 2:44am Mar 6, 2013 2:44am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Sit down Fancis
Stop or target...
  • #30
  • Mar 6, 2013 2:47am Mar 6, 2013 2:47am
Quoting MoralAtheist
I understand our little banter in the TAF thread last night got you randy but I feel it my moral duty to inform you I'm not a chick.

No religious speak in here either thank you.


Cheers for all the replies, still soaking them in...
Time hides Nothing
  • #31
  • Edited 7:03am Mar 6, 2013 2:49am | Edited 7:03am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I understand our little banter in the TAF thread last night got you randy but I feel it my moral duty to inform you I'm not a chick.

No religious speak in here either thank you.


Cheers for all the replies, still soaking them in...

Of course no! I was goaded into that whole thing...

Oh by the way I never thought you were a chick, you don't write like one for starters... and for the record I live in Odessa Ukraine, I do not need to get hot and sweaty in front of my computer
Stop or target...
  • #32
  • Mar 6, 2013 3:01am Mar 6, 2013 3:01am
Quoting BBCMicro
This type of situation happens all the time.

Its basically the fallacy of being in control and that you are some how responsible for the outcome of a trade.

A profitable trade can only occur by the actions of other traders. Not your actions.

If we agree that a profitable trade can only occur by the actions of other traders (you buy and then AFTER you trade other traders also buy putting your position into profit) then we can see that we totally depend on other traders for profit. As we cannot control or predict what other traders will...
Cool post... Absolutely agree, it's just like a roulette wheel that the casino is running they don't know what each spin will result in, but they know exactly they edge they have against the punters on each spin, roulette from memory is about 3%, so for every $100 wagered the casino in the long term will average $3 per spin..

Same with a trading strategy, if you know your win/loss ratio, then you can calculate your edge over the market over the long term.. If you can find a positive edge and you then use sensible money management (to avoid what is called gamblers ruin) you in principal just need to keep spinning the wheel as it were.
Stop or target...
  • #33
  • Mar 8, 2013 2:18pm Mar 8, 2013 2:18pm
This thread hits the point by asking the right question. I am surprise not to see more posts here.
I am sure anyone who's been trading for over two years and having a good method or two, is going through this issue.

So when to have the "balls to win" a lot more? That is the question, isn't it?

The key is: Recognizing in what conditions one can make a lot more money, and when the conditions are ripe to loose money.

-There is a lot more money can be made in sessions with high liquidity and big moves.
-If a trader tries hard in choppy market conditions, it will be very easy to loose money.
-When there is a true breakout and/or market has a defined direction, a lot more than usual can be earned.
-Trading substatial ranges, level to level, (in a range type day) also works well once you have defined s/r's.
Never Trade without a defined risk, never, never, never.
  • #34
  • Mar 8, 2013 2:30pm Mar 8, 2013 2:30pm
Quoting seaman2
increase your targets to 10R. This will make you trade less and more profitable and you wont have to fight 'i am good' disease.


Chances are you will loose more than 10 R trying to hit a 10 R trade...
  • #35
  • Edited 2:12am Mar 9, 2013 12:58am | Edited 2:12am
Quoting cuchuflito


Chances are you will loose more than 10 R trying to hit a 10 R trade...
Seems to me, starting from any given price with an equal stop and target ratio, the win/loss ratio is 1:1 IE 50/50 or expected value =0 minus, and this is important, minus the spread! So over the long term with equal stop and target you will lose on average the spread per trade... Changing the target to 2x or 3x or 10x will make no difference because you just get more losers for each win, the net result will still be over the long term a loss equal to the spread per trade..

Does this make any sense to anyone?, finding it difficult to put into words this morning..

So unless you truly have an edge on likely price direction at the time of entry, you are destined to lose the spread per trade on average, then if you compound that by exiting winning trades early but fly losers into the ground as we have all done, you are to use the French expression, totally f*cked!

Think of this, if you went through a load of coin toss data, plotted them on a chart added a bunch of moving averages and other indicators, I bet your brain could spot some patterns and from those patterns you could deduce that you had a system to predict the sequence of coin tosses.. Think again, it's 1:1 ratio every time, even if you've just had ten heads in a row, the next toss is still 50/50 for heads or tails.... Or to put it another way, for any set of data you can find some patterns that look like they re-occur and help predict the future, because of the way we back test is by looking for patterns that work within a fixed set of data... We're all doomed

I found this interesting :-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checkin...a_coin_is_fair

To determine whether a coin is fair IE 50% heads 50% tails, to get 95% certainty you need to toss that coin 10,000 times to smooth out all of the statistical variance.. My guess is that most people are trading using strategies that have been tested on at most a few hundred signals, and thus their strategies are based on insufficient data to effectively iron out the statistical variance...
Stop or target...
  • #36
  • Edited 3:20am Mar 9, 2013 3:08am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I understand our little banter in the TAF thread last night got you randy but I feel it my moral duty to inform you I'm not a chick.

No religious speak in here either thank you.


Cheers for all the replies, still soaking them in...
Lol..

Hey Sim.

We need to analyse our weakness...right ? Discretionary filtered entries....Automated, set and forget exits. Rational behaviour before exposure, irrational behavior after..

works for me..

Hope your golf went well..

Ja.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #37
  • Mar 9, 2013 10:19pm Mar 9, 2013 10:19pm
Quoting j4d
Rational behaviour before exposure, irrational behavior after.
Fantastic logic thank you Sir.
Kinda like putting on an emotion proof vest you are sprayed by the markets AK throughout your trade.
Provided you are well prepared to accept whatever result you are given.

Good stuff.
Time hides Nothing
  • #38
  • Mar 10, 2013 8:26am Mar 10, 2013 8:26am
Quoting P.Dean
GREED IS GOOD.. remember that!!.. greed is good in all its shapes and forms.. greed for money, greed for life...

..to have the balls to win you'll need to be greedy as a trader.. greed will will you to accept risk and riskier.. if we can't cope with that, you and I better look for something else pal.

I agree with you

Greed is Good if you know how to deal with FX ! Greed is good is not for everyone
“If you’re not getting rewarded for the risk, why take it?”
  • #39
  • Mar 10, 2013 9:18pm Mar 10, 2013 9:18pm
Do you have the balls to Lose, But not the balls to Win?

I have both
but these two of my balls,,likely be happy when being served with soft and gently
Do not chafe ,,,just kidding,,,

salaam
  • #40
  • Mar 11, 2013 10:54am Mar 11, 2013 10:54am
Quoting mr.kho
Do you have the balls to Lose, But not the balls to Win?

I have both
but these two of my balls,,likely be happy when being served with soft and gently
Do not chafe ,,,just kidding,,,

salaam
too much information, Mr. kho

Can the moderators change the title to include something about lady balls... Sorry ladies, you must be sitting there like "ghehh... men".

Anyway moderators I'll leave it with you, get creative if you must... I won't be held liable.
Time hides Nothing
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