All Majors and Gold

as long as the price is reasonable, u can't go wrong with commodities. however some may argue, the price that we paid for some commodities such as gold already in premium which mean that the price are at premium level. The price is far above its fair value and it will always above its fair value. Coz if the price moving below their values, there will be a large number buyers will be willing to pay for the gold to adjust the price at least to their fair value.

But what is fair value for the gold? The cost to produce 1 ounce of gold approximately around US$600 at the moment. of course miners companies or individuals need sum amount of profits, and of course you have to consider Demand of the Real Buyer who will use gold for production or consumption such as jewellers etc. You have to exclude Gold traders. Since 2008 the price of gold is driven by traders who put their money into gold as a safe heaven investment which already put the price of gold to a new record high around US$1900. If we imagine that there is no such economy downturn during 2008 until now, how much is the price of the gold should be at the moment?

My opinion the fair value of the gold at the moment should be around US$ 1.200 per troy ounce if there is no such traders. so if the price of gold around US$1.600 there is a US$300 price premium above its fair value. and as long as you trade the market premium, there is still some risks that you will loose your money. however, since the fair value of gold is always increasing from time to time, may be if you go into long position and the price going downward, may be somewhere in the future you might close your position into profit. but how long? nobody's know.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/3obzDtSw/

keeing SL so near will always get it hit......it is next to impossible to time the market with so much perfection even if you are right about the overall direction.....that is why i trade with small lots when i am not so sure and keep sl outside the range ...even if i go wrong i can use bigger lots to cover in the same or opposite direction

Thats true, but in this case I went against myself. I was expecting price to get to 70 but then at 72 It seemed like it would start reversing and I jusmped the gun. If I had waited for the original 70 level to go long then 4points stop would be enough buuuuuuut i didnt.

Conclusion is - stick to the plan

If we go past 1588 then I see big upside potential.

Intersting PA, looks like it will break out on the new in 25min one way or the other

looking at 72-75 area for any potential reverse of this down move...at the moment only small signs.

gold plan for today

current 1575
sell 1574
sl open
tp open

short opened and now waiting for lots of profit........

Let me help you by going long here ))

Hahahaha

potentially stopping volumes here but can still get overwhelmed by sellers.

If we can get to 78 would be positive for bulls imho.

i think will down till market close....lol

http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-technical

http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-d...ndex-technical

wouldn't be surprised...

set my limit buy at 71, stop at 65.

Given the balance sheet expansion of central banks and the real demand from Asia then JPM must be printing their own money to keep gold as low as possible. How on earth would this otherwise be possible.

They basically have a free line or credit from the FED, the gov't doesn't want high gold unless it is bankrupt and must liquidate its gold to pay off debt. That is the point that they let the hedge go and we fly up, but might not be for a while yet.

But JPM/HSBC et al basically can put on an almost unlimited sized short position if they want. They will short until all paper traders are hit with SL or MC... the real demand buyers pose a problem because if they do sell to a buyer on the futures exchange that wants physical delivery then they will not want to let them get in at that price as that means they will have to give up some physical gold to someone else.

You have to get an idea of where the physical demand area is... forget thepaper supports, because they will surely be manipulated. Once there is physical demand on the futures market then you want to get in there. The game is rigged. CME also wants to know before you even put up margin if you want your commodity physically delivered, this is to give a clue to the manipulators as to what the limits of the selling can be.

What a bunch of bullshit is this ...

What happened?

you posting ... lol