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  • #28,441
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:40pm Mar 4, 2013 9:40pm
can someone please fill me in from a fundamental side of the story?

not that i really care much, but it is good to know.
  • #28,442
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:42pm Mar 4, 2013 9:42pm
Quoting arcticwolf
Well I hope the aussie heads back towards 1.01 as I had a short in and my power shut down at 29mins past and I was off line now I am on the wrong side of the ledger
i had a short in for 4 months at 1.016.... just got it out last night!
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #28,443
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:45pm Mar 4, 2013 9:45pm
Quoting arcticwolf
Well I hope the aussie heads back towards 1.01 as I had a short in and my power shut down at 29mins past and I was off line now I am on the wrong side of the ledger
next time be more wary of fundamental events like this, and always use a stop loss or close position before such news. Then re-use a good buy at range low, or buy stop above. or sell support in range low if its meant to go down to prevent getting caught. Alot of traders are in a position before a heavy fundamental, if lucky. poor liquidity might retrace back, but if not it can stubbornly consolidated above high, and just leap more higher and say goodbye for those bearish takers, which is what the market analyst want people to be caught in. The bull and the bear side, which is funny as if as normal traders like most of us, our objective is just to be in the green side of the market in the right trend. For eg, if one have spotted the hourly range support at 1.0191. and rate is still at 3%, a buy there at low with stop after is always a good call, by then already break even? or trail? even if sell, cut it once it cross the high, and go with buy or pull back if a prevailing trend is up.

still i don't like such movements in asia, if it doesn't shoot up or down within the first 5 minutes, its going to look boring.

Not a fan of short aud unless in 1.04-1.05 or using sell stops with tight stop loss. Don't forget when AUD start to move higher than 100-150 from its low with a good base support. It can rally for weeks and month in a upper range, and short can be killed by swaps if without stop loss or proper management.

AUD/USD Buy 1.02181.02327 min ago2.50.7%S$42614 . Try to use only pre-order in such events. to have more probability of being right in the market most of the time. My demo attached on TE only uses pre-order set up, if interested study it .
  • #28,444
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:45pm Mar 4, 2013 9:45pm
Yes I have 4 buy orders in a fair way up the road that I am waiting out,this one was only supposed to be a quick scalp but I got caught
Quoting John Gray
i had a short in for 4 months at 1.016.... just got it out last night!
  • #28,445
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:47pm Mar 4, 2013 9:47pm
DB,
my pouch shrink..
  • #28,446
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:47pm Mar 4, 2013 9:47pm
That is fine when you have power!!!
Quoting 5percent
next time be more wary of fundamental events like this, and always use a stop loss or close position before such news. Then re-use a good buy at range low, or buy stop above. or sell support in range low if its meant to go down to prevent getting caught. Alot of traders are in a position before a heavy fundamental, if lucky. poor liquidity might retrace back, but if not it can stubbornly consolidated above high, and just leap more higher and say goodbye for those bearish takers, which is what the market analyst want people to be caught in. The bull...
  • #28,447
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:48pm Mar 4, 2013 9:48pm
Quoting arcticwolf
Yes I have 4 buy orders in a fair way up the road that I am waiting out,this one was only supposed to be a quick scalp but I got caught
Quick Scalp should have 15 pip SL or less....................Been there Done That..............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #28,448
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:48pm Mar 4, 2013 9:48pm
Quoting HelloOz
DB,
my pouch shrink..
Bummer ......you still short........?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #28,449
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:50pm Mar 4, 2013 9:50pm
look for shorts near 1.03

However, the rate of expansion eased from January and was modest overall. The HSBC China Composite Output Index posted 51.4 in February, down from January’s two-year high of 53.5.

china is slowing. bad for AUD
  • #28,450
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:51pm Mar 4, 2013 9:51pm
yer -10 pips now..


Quoting forexalien
Bummer ......you still short........?
  • #28,451
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:51pm Mar 4, 2013 9:51pm
Quoting John Gray
i had a short in for 4 months at 1.016.... just got it out last night!
you are lucky that aud attempts to often visit low at least 1-2 a year so far from its season or heavy risk sentiment period. Holding position can be detrimental to new position or bias-ness of market outlook. But as long good rm and mm is watched, holding position in aud is still generally fine as long leverage is low to last months. If one hold positions like gbp or eur or jpy pairs, one can look to suicide .
  • #28,452
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:56pm Mar 4, 2013 9:56pm
Quoting 5percent
you are lucky that aud attempts to often visit low at least 1-2 a year so far from its season or heavy risk sentiment period. Holding position can be detrimental to new position or bias-ness of market outlook. But as long good rm and mm is watched, holding position in aud is still generally fine as long leverage is low to last months. If one hold positions like gbp or eur or jpy pairs, one can look to suicide .
Hi there, nice to see you again,

yes it was a very small position, but the principal is still there, the lesson to be learnt is carry trading can be dangerous!

could see 1.06 by end of march if USD index reversal occurs.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #28,453
  • Mar 4, 2013 9:59pm Mar 4, 2013 9:59pm
Quoting pkimnyc
can someone please fill me in from a fundamental side of the story?

not that i really care much, but it is good to know.
i guess no one... uh well...
  • #28,454
  • Mar 4, 2013 10:08pm Mar 4, 2013 10:08pm
Quoting HelloOz
DB,
my pouch shrink..
Take it easy! You can always fill up your pouch with some rocks.
daddybearforex. com
  • #28,455
  • Mar 4, 2013 10:12pm Mar 4, 2013 10:12pm
Quoting John Gray
i had a short in for 4 months at 1.016.... just got it out last night!

Didn't the swap kill you!?
  • #28,456
  • Mar 4, 2013 10:26pm Mar 4, 2013 10:26pm
Im about to go on a month long holiday but just wanted to add my 2 cents.

If you are thinking of shorting this pair, my indicator hasn't given me a signal yet but I also think we may have changed sides for now.
Looking to the short side would only be a retrace as we have entered a new bullish trend (as of yet still unconfirmed but looking more likely)

If you are looking at going long on this pair let the dust settle after this week. My buy signal happened last night but I was sleeping at the time, would have been nice to just trail the stop from now and enjoy the swaps

Unless something drastic happens I think the Aussie is in for a steady climb haven't got targets as of yet.

Keep an eye on Eur/AUD as if what everyone is spooking to be right in the Eurozone that would only give another prop to the AUD slowly? edging higher until we see some of that volatility kick in (I don't expect much volatility in the AU until at least after ANZAC day)

My 2 cents worth take it or leave it
  • #28,457
  • Mar 4, 2013 10:53pm Mar 4, 2013 10:53pm
Quoting whyphi
Im about to go on a month long holiday but just wanted to add my 2 cents.

If you are thinking of shorting this pair, my indicator hasn't given me a signal yet but I also think we may have changed sides for now.
Looking to the short side would only be a retrace as we have entered a new bullish trend (as of yet still unconfirmed but looking more likely)
it is only a bull trend if u look at the lower timeframe. but on higher time frames this is a downtrend, with fundamentals nothing going for it(e.g. eurozone, china slowing).

it hit its lowest point for nearly 1 year, so its just going up on short covering. when that finishes, down it goes again, possible turning point at 1.03 or higher like 1.0450 depending on how many shorts have to cover.
  • #28,458
  • Mar 4, 2013 11:23pm Mar 4, 2013 11:23pm
Quoting Halba
it is only a bull trend if u look at the lower timeframe. but on higher time frames this is a downtrend, with fundamentals nothing going for it(e.g. eurozone, china slowing).

it hit its lowest point for nearly 1 year, so its just going up on short covering. when that finishes, down it goes again, possible turning point at 1.03 or higher like 1.0450 depending on how many shorts have to cover.
i don't quite understand how you are calling it a down trend in higher time frame...
  • #28,459
  • Mar 4, 2013 11:33pm Mar 4, 2013 11:33pm
I'm bullish on this pair. However, the only thing that doesn't look so good to me at the moment is the daily and weekly stochastic. So if it were to go bull-bull, I think a test of 1.018-1.02 (if not lower) would happen soon.
  • #28,460
  • Mar 4, 2013 11:45pm Mar 4, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting HelloOz
DB,
my pouch shrink..
Maybe you're ovulating??
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