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  • #361
  • Feb 26, 2013 9:18pm Feb 26, 2013 9:18pm
GBP

A couple for short possabilities exist on the Pound.

GBP/USD
We have clearly broken below a firmly held support level on the weekly chart.
Looks like we have had a pullback and now rejection of this area.
Selling a break of the pinbar with no profit target set.

GBP/CHF
Much the same story as above, selling a break of the pinbar. However, I have set a take profit limit @1.3810 just in front of the next potential support level.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130226_GBPUSD_W.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130226_GBPUSD_D.png Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130226_GBPCHF_W.png Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130226_GBPCHF_D.png Size: 10 KB
  • #362
  • Feb 28, 2013 4:33am Feb 28, 2013 4:33am
Quoting mypipbull
GBP

A couple for short possabilities exist on the Pound.

GBP/USD
We have clearly broken below a firmly held support level on the weekly chart.
Looks like we have had a pullback and now rejection of this area.
Selling a break of the pinbar with no profit target set.

GBP/CHF
Much the same story as above, selling a break of the pinbar. However, I have set a take profit limit @1.3810 just in front of the next potential support level.
I am now short both of these.
Whilst the GU close does not look too good, both pairs had lower daily lows, so at least that's a bit more positive.
Attached Images
  • #363
  • Feb 28, 2013 4:44am Feb 28, 2013 4:44am
Quoting mypipbull
After a volatile session last night TBonds was up strongly. The problem with the PA like last night (across most markets) is that it was too volatile to gauge real sentiment. We want bars to be not too big and not too small. Last night may have triggerd the start of an uptrend again but will wait to see what PA follows this. On the whole imo this is positive for the bulls here.
This now looks pretty interesting.
Two consecutive Pinbars at previous resistance. We might have a bear trap set here. If we can get above the highs of the last two days again there could be a lot of stops hit (buying) and this could send us up pretty rapidly. I have orders as follows:

[email protected], [email protected].

If we do break lower I will re-evaluate and be looking for longs providing 141 remains intact.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130227_TBond_D.png Size: 11 KB
  • #364
  • Feb 28, 2013 4:50am Feb 28, 2013 4:50am
AUD/USD

Still short and I'm sure the longer term traders are looking at yesterdays pin (at support) as a nice long entry.....

Same story as the T-Bonds if price can test that low again there could be more downside follow-through with long covering......maybe....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130227_AUDUSD_D.png Size: 12 KB
  • #365
  • Feb 28, 2013 5:25am Feb 28, 2013 5:25am
NZD/USD

Price is testing the low (and Daily trendline) it broke below.
A pinbar or other PA in this location would have me short.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130227_nzdusd_d.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130227_nzdusd_4h.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #366
  • Feb 28, 2013 5:47am Feb 28, 2013 5:47am
Quoting mypipbull
NZD/USD

Price is testing the low (and Daily trendline) it broke below.
A pinbar or other PA in this location would have me short.

I have been watching this one as well. By the way audnzd is struggling with resistance ...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #367
  • Feb 28, 2013 8:25pm Feb 28, 2013 8:25pm
Quoting Olu
I have been watching this one as well. By the way audnzd is struggling with resistance ...

Olu
You are right I just had a bit of a look then.

The PA last night looks, a pin bar and rejection of that previous support. This is a complete COT Sell setup for me.

I have sell orders on this one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130228_NZDUSD_D.png Size: 12 KB
  • #368
  • Mar 1, 2013 7:06pm Mar 1, 2013 7:06pm
T-Bonds

Looking at the current COT chart we can see that the participants positioning has moved away from the extremes and price has followed.
We are now at a pretty obvious resistance area and price is just chopping around here.
As mentioned earlier I can see sellers liking this area to short but I still think the repositioning is still playing out here and if we get above 145 we could go a fair bit higher. I also notice that the Large Specs have not yet got on the buying bandwagon and their repositioning is still in the early stages. My orders still stand.

[email protected], [email protected].
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130301_TBonds_COT.png Size: 66 KB
  • #369
  • Mar 1, 2013 7:21pm Mar 1, 2013 7:21pm
AUD/USD

Still short here. COT repositioning is playing out in a typical fashion at the moment.
We have entered a bit of a battleground here at the 1.02 level. This will be critical to the short term future of the Aussie.
I have moved my stop down to 1.0310 Just above the continuation short pin bar of 28th Feb.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130301_AUDUSD_COT.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130301_AUDUSD_D.png Size: 11 KB
  • #370
  • Mar 1, 2013 7:22pm Mar 1, 2013 7:22pm
Quoting mypipbull
I am now short both of these.
Whilst the GU close does not look too good, both pairs had lower daily lows, so at least that's a bit more positive.
Mmmm.....no positive news here. Both stopped out for 1R losses.
Interesting now though the GBP may have a bullish COT setup in play.
Will post shortly.
  • #371
  • Mar 1, 2013 7:35pm Mar 1, 2013 7:35pm
EUR/USD

Still short here also. In this case the COT repositioning looks like its still in its infancy despite a pretty good move down in price itself. There could still be plenty of room here for a sizeable move lower.

We may see a scuffle at 1.3 but if this gives way....look out.

Stop lowered to 1.3170 my EOD chart not updated yet but we have broken below 1.3115 so we now have a LL situation.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130301_EURUSD_COT.png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130301_EURUSD_D.png Size: 11 KB
  • #372
  • Mar 1, 2013 11:19pm Mar 1, 2013 11:19pm
GBP/USD

GBP 2y COT index is at 85% this week so is triggered as a Bull warning.

Looking at the COT chart you can see the net positioning has been strong and consistant and is not showing any signs yet of slowing. This means shorting is still the best option. I attempted a short earlier in the week and my stop got tapped by a few pips and position was closed out. Looking at what happend later that day it ended up closing on its low and forming a new pinbar, then friday made a LL. My fault on bad stop locating of the SL.

The 1.5250 looks like a pretty major area. I am mindful of the bull warning but with price still firmly down and staying below this key level this means shorts only for the time being.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130301_GBPUSD_COT.png Size: 86 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130301_gbpusd_d.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #373
  • Mar 2, 2013 6:52pm Mar 2, 2013 6:52pm
Crude Oil

I have been watching this market for a while now. We had a Bear setup in COT and this is playing out now. There could be more to come too.
I am looking for shorts below the trendline (90ish)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130301_Crude_COT.png Size: 64 KB
  • #374
  • Mar 3, 2013 4:09am Mar 3, 2013 4:09am
Quoting mypipbull
Crude Oil

I have been watching this market for a while now. We had a Bear setup in COT and this is playing out now. There could be more to come too.
I am looking for shorts below the trendline (90ish)
Amazing MPB. I am looking at this as well. the daily chart seems stretched downwards a bit but the weekly chart looks like the downmove is still in its early stages

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #375
  • Mar 4, 2013 8:13pm Mar 4, 2013 8:13pm
AUD/USD & NZD/USD

Both pairs found plenty of buyers at support last night and printed glorious pinbars.

This is going to test the bears over the next little while. If the bears can push price below yesterdays low there could be a lot of long covering which could initiate a serious down move imo.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130304_AUDUSD_D.png Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130304_NZDUSD_D.png Size: 12 KB
  • #376
  • Mar 6, 2013 7:47pm Mar 6, 2013 7:47pm
T-Bonds

Orders cancelled now. The US stock market is looking mighty bullish at the moment (new highs) hence Bonds down.
  • #377
  • Mar 6, 2013 7:49pm Mar 6, 2013 7:49pm
NZD/USD

I like the PA today here today. The Bullish pin the other day did get some traction but looks to have met some selling now and reversed.
Sell orders placed about today's pinbar:

[email protected] [email protected]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130306_NZDUSD_D.png Size: 12 KB
  • #378
  • Mar 6, 2013 7:50pm Mar 6, 2013 7:50pm
Crude (May)

Still bearish despite another failed attempt below 90 and the trend line.
I have placed sell orders in this market now:
[email protected] [email protected]
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130306_CrudeMay_D.png Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130306_Crude_D.png Size: 11 KB
  • #379
  • Mar 6, 2013 7:51pm Mar 6, 2013 7:51pm
NZD/CAD Short

This is a swing trade I am taking here. I like it for a few reasons.
1) Its inline with my NZD bearish bias (COT)
2) The price tested a previous resistance level and failed, printing a classic pinbar.

Something that is on my mind with this trade is that it's kind of a pro-oil type trade (CAD).
Given I am bearish Crude it does not quite fit. In saying that Crude is at a level where it could get a bid and bounce, which could correspond to a down move in this pair which would be suit me.

Sometimes it's better not to over think trades and just 'trade what you see' and for me this chart wants to be sold. Orders as follows:

[email protected] [email protected] (intraday stop)

I will add an intraday chart to this post after work showing the reasoning behind this tight stop. The intraday stop is something I have been looking at for a while and I will explain later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130306_NZDCAD_D.png Size: 11 KB
  • #380
  • Mar 7, 2013 7:19pm Mar 7, 2013 7:19pm
Quoting mypipbull
NZD/USD

I like the PA today here today. The Bullish pin the other day did get some traction but looks to have met some selling now and reversed.
Sell orders placed about today's pinbar:

[email protected] [email protected]
Inside day yesterday. Orders remain.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130307_NZDUSD_D.png Size: 12 KB
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