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AUD/USD - is it still risk adverse?

  • #81
  • Mar 3, 2013 8:23pm Mar 3, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting John Gray
closed short, entered 1 long @ 1.01656 TP 1.022
SL hit................................................
  • #82
  • Mar 3, 2013 8:25pm Mar 3, 2013 8:25pm
AUDUSD break 1.0130. Where we should open long?
  • #83
  • Mar 3, 2013 8:44pm Mar 3, 2013 8:44pm
Quoting Qayas
AUDUSD break 1.0130. Where we should open long?
I would above 1.01
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #84
  • Mar 3, 2013 8:44pm Mar 3, 2013 8:44pm
Quoting John Gray
I would above 1.01
wait for reversal
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #85
  • Mar 3, 2013 8:57pm Mar 3, 2013 8:57pm
Why open long when the big pivot point has been hit ?

Its broken through this major support for a reason.

The only position is short with a stop above 1.0180..

Schoolboy error is -... its must be ranging therefore i will buy ..

Thats why are our friends over in Dlr/JPY land have sore botties.. not seeing the trend and always thinking its ranging
  • #86
  • Mar 3, 2013 9:08pm Mar 3, 2013 9:08pm
Quoting lasty
Why open long when the big pivot point has been hit ?

Its broken through this major support for a reason.

The only position is short with a stop above 1.0180..

Schoolboy error is -... its must be ranging therefore i will buy ..

Thats why are our friends over in Dlr/JPY land have sore botties.. not seeing the trend and always thinking its ranging
I've had enough selling at lows and buying at highs. I think there's a good risk/reward here for going long. Plus you have swaps so you can just hedge it.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #87
  • Mar 3, 2013 9:14pm Mar 3, 2013 9:14pm
Quoting lasty
Why open long when the big pivot point has been hit ?

Its broken through this major support for a reason.

The only position is short with a stop above 1.0180..

Schoolboy error is -... its must be ranging therefore i will buy ..

Thats why are our friends over in Dlr/JPY land have sore botties.. not seeing the trend and always thinking its ranging
I understand, everyone is learning, especially me I am 19.

could see 98 post pic soon
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #88
  • Edited 10:02pm Mar 3, 2013 9:27pm | Edited 10:02pm
Quoting John Gray
I understand, everyone is learning, especially me I am 19.

could see 98 post pic soon
Attached Image


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 999.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #89
  • Mar 4, 2013 12:14am Mar 4, 2013 12:14am
Quoting khol_hands
Attachment

Attachment
That's an awfully skewed harmonic, We'll see how the support acts
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #90
  • Mar 4, 2013 12:24am Mar 4, 2013 12:24am
Quoting John Gray
I understand, everyone is learning, especially me I am 19.

could see 98 post pic soon
This triangle is actually a triangle, bullish breakout could occur in the coming weeks. Yes maybe it has to go to 98 to go to 1.12
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Triangle.PNG Size: 60 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUS Triangle Bullish Continuation.PNG Size: 92 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #91
  • Mar 4, 2013 12:58am Mar 4, 2013 12:58am
Quoting John Gray
This triangle is actually a triangle, bullish breakout could occur in the coming weeks. Yes maybe it has to go to 98 to go to 1.12
this is what i'm looking at with au

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post6475864

Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #92
  • Mar 4, 2013 1:30am Mar 4, 2013 1:30am
Quoting gnomoneey
this is what i'm looking at with au

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post6475864

Copy the post please
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #93
  • Mar 4, 2013 1:53am Mar 4, 2013 1:53am
Quoting John Gray
Copy the post please
here's my view on au monthly

-white upward tl broken support
-looking for support at 0.987x
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361902590
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #94
  • Mar 4, 2013 2:39am Mar 4, 2013 2:39am
Quoting gnomoneey
here's my view on au monthly

-white upward tl broken support
-looking for support at 0.987x
Sounds good, so no consideration for parity?
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #95
  • Mar 4, 2013 2:32pm Mar 4, 2013 2:32pm
Quoting aeternum
I've had enough selling at lows and buying at highs. I think there's a good risk/reward here for going long. Plus you have swaps so you can just hedge it.
You win
  • #96
  • Mar 4, 2013 4:36pm Mar 4, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting lasty
You win
It's going up to where I wanted but apparently I closed it too early because I didn't have confidence in the slow movement. Guess I should have trusted myself more
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #97
  • Mar 4, 2013 5:19pm Mar 4, 2013 5:19pm
Quoting lasty
Why open long when the big pivot point has been hit ?

Its broken through this major support for a reason.

The only position is short with a stop above 1.0180..

Schoolboy error is -... its must be ranging therefore i will buy ..

Thats why are our friends over in Dlr/JPY land have sore botties.. not seeing the trend and always thinking its ranging
I think you and Aeternum both have valid points. Apologies also that I'm a bit late on adding my two bobs worth. Fibs from daily chart from 1.06 to 1.0115 suggest 23% retracement point is around 1.023 and 38% around 1.03 so would need to be very careful with stops on shorts around 1.018 (retail sales result a case in point). Whilst it's good to trade the trend (currently down on daily & 4hr timeframes) there are always opportunities the other way, they just need to be evaluated on a risk reward basis as opposed to trying to open something for long term hold. Looking at 4 or 5 hr chart also shows that there's been several retracements during the down trend, eg of 140, 120 & 100 pips + 110 pips on current retracement. Each of these was an opportunity to have some good risk reward longs. We never know in advance when it's a retracement compared to reversal but we can always open good risk reward trades eg long around 1.012 (supported by lows 7/5/12 and 12/7/12) or short around 1.0220 or 1.029 with limit above the recent low.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #98
  • Mar 4, 2013 6:14pm Mar 4, 2013 6:14pm
Quoting dab
I think you and Aeternum both have valid points. Apologies also that I'm a bit late on adding my two bobs worth. Fibs from daily chart from 1.06 to 1.0115 suggest 23% retracement point is around 1.023 and 38% around 1.03 so would need to be very careful with stops on shorts around 1.018 (retail sales result a case in point). Whilst it's good to trade the trend (currently down on daily & 4hr timeframes) there are always opportunities the other way, they just need to be evaluated on a risk reward basis as opposed to trying to open something for long...
Possible 1.03 target, dependant on reversal on the USD Index, bearish movement needed in the USD rather than the strengthening AUD.

Of course we need to consider that this could be a pull back before further continuation down to parity, possible 0.98 target trading triangle as in Chart 2. PS: Chart2 is a little out of date, doesnt show pullback, but is still valid.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Fibonacci Retracement 1.03 Target1.PNG Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Triangle.PNG Size: 60 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #99
  • Mar 5, 2013 2:15am Mar 5, 2013 2:15am
Got some form of pullback which was nice, especially since I closed my shorts down at 1.016, currently sitting at 1.023, we are at the critical point of the H4 downwards channel, signals downward continuation below 1.01, ideally channel will break and further continuation up to 1.03 will occur
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 Downward Channel.PNG Size: 56 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #100
  • Mar 5, 2013 2:21am Mar 5, 2013 2:21am
Quoting John Gray
Got some form of pullback which was nice, especially since I closed my shorts down at 1.016, currently sitting at 1.023, we are at the critical point of the H4 downwards channel, signals downward continuation below 1.01, ideally channel will break and further continuation up to 1.03 will occur
Looks like shorting would be ideal since its in a bearish trend though.
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