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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #1,181
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:12pm Feb 27, 2013 11:12pm
Quoting albchr
Hey buddy, While I'm not saying the dragon will fly, I had to reply to you comment about bullish PA on the daily. To me, this shows some pretty strong buying going on around a good SR area. As I said in a previous post, for me the last daily needed to close above the 50% (I actually said 140ish as that would have been better...lol) but it did.

Take a look. Your thoughts on this chart?
This 139.20"ish" area has definitely held nicely on a daily close 3 days in a row. I'm just not totally convinced that we have seen the bottom when it comes to a weekly perspective just yet. Also, considering that retail longs have been steadily on the rise as of late makes me a little worried.

2nd thing is the amount of selling volume which was seen on 2-25! There was more volume on that day then there was on ANY day of the entire past 12 months. Take a look a the Black candle on 2-25.

Colors:
Red = Heavy buying
Black = Heavy selling
Green = Heavy buying and selling
Grey = normal volume
Yellow = low volume

*I definitely could be wrong though in my assumptions and my account will pay for it if I am.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_-_Daily_Volume_(2-28).png Size: 90 KB
  • #1,182
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:19pm Feb 27, 2013 11:19pm
Quoting Iwc
Well I know you aren't addressing me, but I will say after looking at my own charts and yours that this pair looks bearish to me, like I said in my earlier post I believe shorting until 3921 is the smart move here. Buying seems a bit dangerous just going on what I have learned as a trader, such a big move up on the DOW today, will likely not repeat itself; but more instead see us down a bit the next day. There is no catalyst that should reverse the current short term down trend at least in the coming day unless it is a suprise.
Not sure who your talking to here but....your chart please? It would be nice to "see" your view

But to address your point above in bold, I should have added this to my daily chart post. The indexes are showing a rejection at resistance for the YEN and showing signs of weakness again at this point. The GBP is under resistance but a look at the daily candles shows me a potential turn. Just my take and of course, nothing is for sure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LFXJPY_GBPLFX_DAILY.PNG Size: 61 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,183
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:21pm Feb 27, 2013 11:21pm
100 pips a day

When the red and blue ema are practically touching, or even once they cross, it will be the perfect time to buy

That will take another couple daily closes to achieve the EMAs that close
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,184
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:23pm Feb 27, 2013 11:23pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
This 139.20"ish" area has definitely held nicely on a daily close 3 days in a row. I'm just not totally convinced that we have seen the bottom when it comes to a weekly perspective just yet. Also, considering that retail longs have been steadily on the rise as of late makes me a little worried.

2nd thing is the amount of selling volume which was seen on 2-25! There was more volume on that day then there was on ANY day of the entire past 12 months. Take a look a the Black candle on 2-25.

Colors:
Red = Heavy buying
Black = Heavy selling
Green...
Ahhh...I see. I'm not much with volume (never learned it) but what you're saying is, that heavy selling met with, and has absorbed the demand below (cause of the rise) and still has enough to keep pushing it down?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,185
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:28pm Feb 27, 2013 11:28pm
Nice cloud cover. Maybe will engulf.

Took some profits @10. Will re enter after some consolidation, maybe at the handle

Feels like today will be nothing but rangebound.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: beastnakedchart3.jpg Size: 287 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,186
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:31pm Feb 27, 2013 11:31pm
Quoting albchr
Aww heck, I can't sleep...LOL

The 55ema is right at 139.70 now and is "usually" a good bounce marker on the 1H. Hasn't quite touched yet but we'll see. Bullish certainly isn't clear on lower TF's (4H and below) but I'm sticking to my plan. Going to reply to Terry (100pips) on the daily next.
Actually, I take back the 4H comment above (still having coffee...lol) Another look and I can't help but see bullish on it as well. Spinning top and two dojis before the thrust? Hmmmm.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_4h.gif Size: 21 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,187
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:31pm Feb 27, 2013 11:31pm
It seems like a lot of bears suddenly cropped up out of nowhere here. Coming from someone who was bearish earlier today and is now bullish... I just don't get it.

The signs cannot be clearer that the correction has at least a very good chance of being over. Sure, this means there's a chance we continue further down, but remember... the overall trend is up. Live in the correction while you can and take what you can get. There's no way that this correction is a reversal.

PA is telling us that there's a high probability that the correction is over... why fight it.

I could post a lot of charts to support this, but I don't think it'd matter. If you can't step back and see the big picture, my current charts aren't going to help anymore than my previous ones.

Best of luck to everyone, I'm sure we'll know more into Europe.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,188
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:33pm Feb 27, 2013 11:33pm
Good point Geppy. No way its reversing. Time to scale in longs at the very least.

If you were referring to me, I was only bearish off the first test of major resistance (140.50)

I still think it will consolidate for the rest of the week then take off next week. A weekly close with a wick would be nice.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,189
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:36pm Feb 27, 2013 11:36pm
Quoting Geppy
It seems like a lot of bears suddenly cropped up out of nowhere here. Coming from someone who was bearish earlier today and is now bullish... I just don't get it.

The signs cannot be clearer that the correction has at least a very good chance of being over. Sure, this means there's a chance we continue further down, but remember... the overall trend is up. Live in the correction while you can and take what you can get. There's no way that this correction is a reversal.

PA is telling us that there's a high probability that the correction is over... why fight it.

I could post a lot of charts to support this, but I don't think it'd matter. If you can't step back and see the big picture, my current charts aren't going to help anymore than my previous ones.

Best of luck to everyone, I'm sure we'll know more into Europe.


But I'm always interested in your charts bro.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,190
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:38pm Feb 27, 2013 11:38pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Good point Geppy. No way its reversing. Time to scale in longs at the very least.

If you were referring to me, I was only bearish off the first test of major resistance (140.50)

I still think it will consolidate for the rest of the week then take off next week. A weekly close with a wick would be nice.

I wasn't
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,191
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:39pm Feb 27, 2013 11:39pm
Quoting albchr


But I'm always interested in your charts bro.
Thanks bro, no more tonight coming from me... only had about 3 hours of sleep last night and I'm starting to feel it. Tomorrow for sure though!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,192
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:43pm Feb 27, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting Geppy
Thanks bro, no more tonight coming from me... only had about 3 hours of sleep last night and I'm starting to feel it. Tomorrow for sure though!
I know what you mean man. Had a couple hours, tried for more and just can't tonight.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,193
  • Feb 27, 2013 11:55pm Feb 27, 2013 11:55pm
I see why people are bearish.
Monthly chart shows more down possible.
But there should be a weekly bull first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: beastnakedchart4.jpg Size: 274 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,194
  • Feb 28, 2013 1:09am Feb 28, 2013 1:09am
Closed the longs and now short from 4020

H4 needs down. Today will likely just consolidate through 3960/4050 (well thats just my guess anyway)


Then tomorrow a retest of 3900 ish and a much larger bounce to close the week with a nice wick.



Then hopefully next week we see real big up move.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,195
  • Edited 1:38am Feb 28, 2013 1:22am | Edited 1:38am
out of short..

flat

maybe will hold a baby long that i dont mind if it goes 300 pips against me. im looking for a strong long entry at a better price


guess its going to retest 4050 first, or just break through it, lol


just seems quite unlikely it will break without a drop first
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,196
  • Feb 28, 2013 1:42am Feb 28, 2013 1:42am
For me the Test is not done, we need to touch 117.9 first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_month_28.02.13.jpg Size: 83 KB
lieber aufrecht sterben als kniend leben
  • #1,197
  • Feb 28, 2013 1:53am Feb 28, 2013 1:53am
Quoting 2+2ex
For me the Test is not done, we need to touch 117.9 first.
wrong thread, bro.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,198
  • Feb 28, 2013 1:56am Feb 28, 2013 1:56am
sorry

Quoting Geppy
wrong thread, bro.
lieber aufrecht sterben als kniend leben
  • #1,199
  • Feb 28, 2013 3:32am Feb 28, 2013 3:32am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Price still being contained by the 20 EMA on the H4 chart.

Also, price is well below the 20 and 50 EMA on the Daily chart so I will not look to get long until I see some Bullish Price Action on the D1 chart.

2nd Target of 132.75 is still in effect in order to form new "higher lows" on the Weekly chart. I will keep an eye on Price Action at that time though regardless of the 20 EMA and 50 EMA
20 EMA held VERY nicely on the H4 chart

Price has moved down about 60 pips so far this hour and looks as though we may have formed a BEEB (bearish engulfing bar) on the H1 chart. Looking to make new lows this week with ALL JPY cross pairs.
  • #1,200
  • Feb 28, 2013 3:54am Feb 28, 2013 3:54am
Quoting 100PipsADay
20 EMA held VERY nicely on the H4 chart

Price has moved down about 60 pips so far this hour and looks as though we may have formed a BEEB (bearish engulfing bar) on the H1 chart. Looking to make new lows this week with ALL JPY cross pairs.
Make that a 90 pip drop in the past hour!
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