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MPB Journal

Quoting Olu
You are right MPB. It didnt stand up to the scrutiny. I always like the daily candle to close even if it means I might lose out on a better entry or something profitable. The 'H&S' structure is not out of the picture as price might be really be carving our a higher right shoulder. The strength of the candle is worrying though.

BTW your calls are good. We think alike in many ways. Keep on doing what you do. Anyone who decides to fade your calls do so at their own peril.

Olu
I agree with Olu, your calls are good Mike, imho sometimes entering at source can give better RR trades, though maybe less percentage winners ?, swings and roundabouts..

Ja,
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
Wheat

Price paid for the early entry....1R loss
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AUD/JPY

Daily swing low made at 0.95, previous resistance appears to have now become support.
Stop raised to 94.95.
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Olu and Ja,
Thanks for you supportive comments......sometimes its hard not to take things a little personally.....who said this is not a mental game!!
Mike
Quoting mypipbull
Soybeans

Testing times ahead too. I still hold my bias but not where this position is at for the moment. Will honour the stop none the less.
Stopped out today for 1R Loss.
Still like it from the long side but will wait for new signal despite the pin bar that dropped today.
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Quoting mypipbull
Stopped out today for 1R Loss.
Still like it from the long side but will wait for new signal despite the pin bar that dropped today.
Hi MPB

Shame about the trade. I like grains from the long side too but I will wait. Pins can be negated if the strength of the pullback is very strong. Do you trade the meats?. Can I point you and the thread readers to feeder cattle and lean hogs - they are tanking at the moment and imho they are not done yet.
Find a trend and milk it for all it is worth. That's how to be profitable
Quoting Olu
Hi MPB

Shame about the trade. I like grains from the long side too but I will wait. Pins can be negated if the strength of the pullback is very strong. Do you trade the meats?. Can I point you and the thread readers to feeder cattle and lean hogs - they are tanking at the moment and imho they are not done yet.
Olu,

Thanks Olu, I see it like this:

The Wheat trade was a bad trade that ended bad.
The Beans trade was a good trade that ended bad.

These things happen and its part of this business. It's unfortunate because I could/should have avoided the Wheat loss.

At the moment I do not trade meats. I am looking at a new broker who offers livestock but will probably be a bit late for this trade.
I did look at the feeders and that is an ill looking market, hope you profit well from it.

Thanks for the comments Olu, always valuable.

MPB
AUD

AUD/JPY - No changes to stop position over the weekend. There were a number of bullish signal bars on Fridays close across the XXX/JPY crosses. This is like the good old carry trade when it started back in 2000. It also started off with a parabolic move (not as extreme as this one mind you) and then just ground higher for years.......'free money' anyone?

AUD/USD - Stop moved to break even. PA turned back down from my entry area. Also looking back it is a previous support area that's looks to have become resistance in the near term anyway. My bearish AUD bias continues.
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Precious Metals

I have had bearish bias on PL and PA for some time. They have now hit resistance are look to be pulling back (or reversing....unconfirmed at this stage).

I have a bullish Gold trigger now too. This is amidst Gold taking a bit of a beating over the last week (along with Silver).

I am bearish AUD (correlated to Gold obviously) and the trend is down by my reckoning (I am short).

So what does all this mean?

I'm thinking Bear (for the time being). Gold and Silver have broken a nice uptrend lines extending back to mid last year. The Bullish COT data on Gold is merely confirming that the trend is pretty strongly down at the moment. So should be looking for shorts.

Permabulls will be rubbing their hands seeing nothing but value right now, they are also probably right in the long run, but that does not mean that there is not an opportunity here and now for shorts.

As a trader I think the best opportunity is to look for shorts in the paper market and possibly be a buyer in the physicals.

I'm looking for a signal that screams 'Sell Me!'
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Quoting mypipbull
Gold

Long orders cancelled as we have now broken strongly down through the trendline. This market may present a sell signal soon and I would consider fading my bullish bias if that is the case. I would expect support or a battle at least at 1630 but below that 1530 looks like the next ultimate target.
Further to this I have placed sell orders. We could go a little higher before breaking down but I like the PA presenting here.

Bar1 - Very convincing bear action closing below Jan 4th Low.
Bar2 - Inside Bar (not surprising given the size of the preceding bar) but showing a pause and a HL
Bar3 - Mid sized Bear creating a LL.

I have Sell orders below the low of Bar1 and Stop Orders above the high of Bar2.
If Bar2 high taken out before short position opened then the orders will be cancelled.

[email protected] [email protected]
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Gold

Short orders filled last night. Big moves in the PM's.

[email protected] [email protected]

PL and PA got hammered as well.....there could be a hefty move underway......will probably be a volatile one.
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EUR/USD

I have a Short COT setup for the Euro and that trend looks like it got broken last night with a large bearish outside day.
Orders placed about Bar1. [email protected] [email protected]
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Sell Watchlist

Crude

I got my first Sell signal given last night. I am going to wait for the next one as I want to see a little more proof that we are done here. The trend line got some respect last night. If I get another sell signal below this line I will be short.

NZD/USD

Getting pretty close here too. Once these trend lines are broken we have a long way we could correct. I am surprised that the NZD has held up so well given the AUD is under attack.
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Quoting mypipbull
EUR/USD

I have a Short COT setup for the Euro and that trend looks like it got broken last night with a large bearish outside day.
Orders placed about Bar1. [email protected] [email protected]
Short opened last night.
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Quoting mypipbull
Sell Watchlist

Crude

I got my first Sell signal given last night. I am going to wait for the next one as I want to see a little more proof that we are done here. The trend line got some respect last night. If I get another sell signal below this line I will be short.
Trend broken......looking to sell a rally.
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Hi MPB

Good thread!
Clean and clear!
Hope one day I can trade in naked / pure PA without indy.

Pls. post more so that junior traders like me can learn you trading method.

How do you do MM (SL, TP etc.)?

Any comments on yen, euro vs gbp?

My recent trades survive so far.

Have a nice weekend.
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T-Bonds

Interesting setup here.
From a fundamental view point the COT (Legacy Report) shows the Comm Index as follows:
1 year = 94
2 year = 86
These are bullish readings. Also the Specs at are extremely short. When the Comms and Specs have been at these levels previously rallies have occurred.

Technically I like the area we are in also 142 - 143 was major swing level back in late 2008. Although this level has been traded through since, but this level jumps out on the charts.

Looking at the weekly price action I see a bullish bias:

Bar1 - Strong Bullish bar that rejects lower prices
Bar2 - An inside bar that formed a pin bar
Bar3 - A bullish pin bar that formed a HL and a HH.

I do not see confirmation of an uptrend on the Daily yet but once confirmed (if it does) I will be looking for longs.
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Quoting mypipbull
T-Bonds

..... I do not see confirmation of an uptrend on the Daily yet but once confirmed (if it does) I will be looking for longs.
After a volatile session last night TBonds was up strongly. The problem with the PA like last night (across most markets) is that it was too volatile to gauge real sentiment. We want bars to be not too big and not too small. Last night may have triggerd the start of an uptrend again but will wait to see what PA follows this. On the whole imo this is positive for the bulls here.
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AUD/JPY - Closed

Stop orders hit during the wild goings on last night for +0.6R.
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Gold closed out for 1R loss
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