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  • #3,101
  • Feb 21, 2013 5:33pm Feb 21, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting Sakujun
Hello People !
(sorry for my bad English)
I'm new here. I'm following this thread and this is really fantastic. I was reading a lot of threads on this forum and tried to earn money on demo, but I couldn't. I think that this thread, Mr.Pip and you will help me to understand what is important to market and how to start earn money in this machine. I'm on page 140 now, I wish I read this thread this week. I see that Mr.Pip do not post for three days, I'm awaiting for more live examples from Mr.Pip's trading - this will help to understand his system...
welcome! to this wonderful journey, i assure you it will be fascinating and in the end very profitable
  • #3,102
  • Feb 21, 2013 5:46pm Feb 21, 2013 5:46pm
75 Trades for February in the books.

I analyze the trades here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6465330#post6465330)but the key take away as related
to Mr. Pip and his teachings is:

>80% of perspective aggressive C that hit 78.6% fail and fully
retrace back to the A level. Only 9 of 54 trades hit 78.6% only
to return to the B level.

There is more in my journal, but it was cool to see that the
rules of engagement presented by Mr. Pip and generally used
by harmonic traders were borne out in forward-looking demo
testing.

My results today only help to confirm as 4 out of 5 completed
trades hit 78.6% followed by full 100% to A level.

Nice

Keep watching as I am looking >100 trades before changing
anything.
  • #3,103
  • Feb 21, 2013 6:01pm Feb 21, 2013 6:01pm
Quoting CNTrader
This is what I see. These 2 areas are of interest to me. Plus I see possible 5 wave completion with nice divergence on AO. Time will tell but I think the bear gets back on the ski lift soon as well
Target 1 attained on first pattern.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: !hr audusd.jpg Size: 174 KB
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #3,104
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:03pm Feb 21, 2013 7:03pm
Quoting BroncoCap
75 Trades for February in the books.

I analyze the trades here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6465330#post6465330)but the key take away as related
to Mr. Pip and his teachings is:

>80% of perspective aggressive C that hit 78.6% fail and fully
retrace back to the A level. Only 9 of 54 trades hit 78.6% only
to return to the B level.

There is more in my journal, but it was cool to see that the
rules of engagement presented by Mr. Pip and generally used
by harmonic traders were borne out in forward-looking...
Excellent work.

Is your conclusion regarding the failure of 78.6% retracements common across the time frames you have tested?

For example, I have noted that significantly more patterns fail on M1 than M15. However, I don't have your empirical evidence to collaborate my suppositions.

Again, great work
  • #3,105
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:21pm Feb 21, 2013 7:21pm
Quoting dibo90
Hey Normadic,
this is not a Gartley nor an ABCD per Mr. Pip rules. The close above 78,6 of AB retracement invalidates the pattern, not 88,6. It is just a double top
Actually if you take a look again it does match the criteria.

XA leg identified. Then...

Criteria 1: Leg B = market forms retracement of at least 61.8 of XA leg, but does not come close to or touch 78.6%. CHECK
Criteria 2: Leg c = at least a 61.8% retracement of AB and there is not a candle close at or beyond the 88.6% retracement of AB. As I stated before, it's one pip over 88.6% but very close. CHECK
Criteria 3: Led D = fulfilling a 127.2% extension of AB. That is the point at which I entered the trade. CHECK

Ultimately the pattern was eventually 'invalid' with 20/20 hindsight because D extended beyond X... but that was impossible to know at time of entry. I follow as per rules and thats all I can do.

Target 1 has now been met and stops moved to break even.
  • #3,106
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:27pm Feb 21, 2013 7:27pm
Quoting nomadic123
Actually if you take a look again it does match the criteria.

XA leg identified. Then...

Criteria 1: Leg B = market forms retracement of at least 61.8 of XA leg, but does not come close to or touch 78.6%. CHECK
Criteria 2: Leg c = at least a 61.8% retracement of AB and there is not a candle close at or beyond the 88.6% retracement of AB. As I stated before, it's one pip over 88.6% but very close. CHECK
Criteria 3: Led D = fulfilling a 127.2% extension of AB. That is the point at which I entered the trade. CHECK

Ultimately...
I think I know the source of the confusion... Mr. Pip had previously confirmed that "88.6" was a misprint in Criteria 2 of his ROE, and it should read 78.6%.

Here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6378360#post6378360) is the link to the post
  • #3,107
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:39pm Feb 21, 2013 7:39pm
Quoting BroncoCap
75 Trades for February in the books.

I analyze the trades here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6465330#post6465330)but the key take away as related
to Mr. Pip and his teachings is:

>80% of perspective aggressive C that hit 78.6% fail and fully
retrace back to the A level. Only 9 of 54 trades hit 78.6% only
to return to the B level.

There is more in my journal, but it was cool to see that the
rules of engagement presented by Mr. Pip and generally used
by harmonic traders were borne out in forward-looking...
Nice analysis.
  • #3,108
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:42pm Feb 21, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting itinerant
I think I know the source of the confusion... Mr. Pip had previously confirmed that "88.6" was a misprint in Criteria 2 of his ROE, and it should read 78.6%.

Here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6378360#post6378360) is the link to the post
Well there you have it! Thanks for clearing that up.
  • #3,109
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:46pm Feb 21, 2013 7:46pm
Quoting itinerant
Today was a fresh demo account, and overall the markets were kinder to me than yesterday and Monday:

Total for day = 68 pips (2% account growth)

EURUSD (+40 pips)
Buy (0)
Sell (+40)
Sell (0)
Sell (-10)
Sell (+10)

AUDUSD (-1 pip)
Buy (-13)
Sell (+22)
Sell (-10)

USDJPY (+29)
Sell (+29)
Nice work.
  • #3,110
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:16pm Feb 21, 2013 9:16pm
Quoting CNTrader
Also like this setup as well. Have a great night and may we all make bank!!
Update: Target 1 attained on NU as well Have a fantastic evening everyone!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu 15m.jpg Size: 158 KB
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  • #3,111
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:18pm Feb 21, 2013 10:18pm
Quoting CNTrader
Target 1 attained on first pattern.
Target 2 attained on Aud/Usd for 70 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: !hr audusd.jpg Size: 163 KB
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  • #3,112
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:20pm Feb 21, 2013 10:20pm
Quoting Starry
I dont know, ive seen price enter the PRZ and then slightly gap up, and then drop like a rock, a fair number of times. Ive also seen the opposite (but it doesnt shoot up, just slowly goes up, it is a prz) .... i dont think gaps are very significant ...
Starry, I guessing Mr Scot got those criteria from a book.

And those gaps mentioned in the book is based on longer time, so those price gaps are bigger gaps in prices which are significant, especially in other instruments (not much on Forex) where gaps may happened more often like stocks.

I also noticed what you mean for Gaps in Ticks Charts, gaps are less significant in short Tick Charts, sometimes the hint in Tick Charts is the gap is about to do the opposite.
  • #3,113
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:34pm Feb 21, 2013 10:34pm
Quoting BroncoCap
75 Trades for February in the books.

I analyze the trades here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6465330#post6465330)but the key take away as related
to Mr. Pip and his teachings is:

>80% of perspective aggressive C that hit 78.6% fail and fully
retrace back to the A level. Only 9 of 54 trades hit 78.6% only
to return to the B level.

There is more in my journal, but it was cool to see that the
rules of engagement presented by Mr. Pip and generally used
by harmonic traders were borne out in forward-looking...
BroncoCap, I just went through all the 3 pages and charts in your journal.
It is terrific that you are doing a journal and posting those charts.

Are you drawing those fib manually or via the EA?

I noticed basically for majority of your charts that if I was to draw the fib lines, it would not be the lines you have drawn.
My fib lines may be:
- Longer lines than what you have
- in the opposite direction to what you have
- in a swing earlier on

Basically that could be the difference between using your eyes to draw the fib lines versus EA if you are using an EA to draw those lines.

The other thing is time frame, seem like you are doing more on M1.
On longer time frames(eg. M15, H1), you may see it better.

Also whether is 62% or 78%( or any other ratio 38%, 50%, etc)is still a matter of judgement when doing it manually monitoring price action.
Don't expect ALL prices to retrace to 62% or ALL prices to retrace to 78%.

If you are using an EA to take profit, perhaps you may want to consider taking earlier profit such as at 38% or 23% and then put the second position in breakeven with a different profit target, and see how that will affect the overall performance.

You may want to consider going back to all those charts you mentioned in your journal, and re-draw the fib lines again manually with what I mentioned above about how I may draw the fib lines, and then you can observe how different the results may be.
  • #3,114
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:48pm Feb 21, 2013 10:48pm
Quoting foxybunny
Starry, I guessing Mr Scot got those criteria from a book.

And those gaps mentioned in the book is based on longer time, so those price gaps are bigger gaps in prices which are significant, especially in other instruments (not much on Forex) where gaps may happened more often like stocks.

I also noticed what you mean for Gaps in Ticks Charts, gaps are less significant in short Tick Charts, sometimes the hint in Tick Charts is the gap is about to do the opposite.
Yes, books and manuals that are in my mind now. Just trying to give some guide lines to watch for as warning signs often exhibit themselves if a pattern is more likely to fail.

You will find gaps in fx, depends upon which tf you use. Yes, they are more often found in stock market as they close, but fx does have gaps, especially on smaller tf's. Some were exhibited tonight on GBP which would was a sign of strength. But if I see strength, I often will not take the trade or wait for some type of confirmation.

Since I am at home now, I have access to my library.

Scott Carney: Harmonic Trading

"It is common for price action to exhibit extreme signs warning in invalid harmonic patterns. In many situations, as the price action enters into a PRZ, price gaps and extreme extension moves can be the trigger of failed setups. Although valid patterns may possess price action that is extreme, warning signs like these must be considered when assessing the validity of a PRZ. I refer to these situations as "blowouts", since warning signs can frequently trigger blatant and convincing price behaviors that invalidates the projected completion of a harmonic pattern." p.190

Definitely, read the book as there is quite a lot more detail regarding pa as it enters the PRZ.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #3,115
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:56pm Feb 21, 2013 10:56pm
Quoting itinerant
Excellent work.

Is your conclusion regarding the failure of 78.6% retracements common across the time frames you have tested?

For example, I have noted that significantly more patterns fail on M1 than M15. However, I don't have your empirical evidence to collaborate my suppositions.

Again, great work
More coming, building a system is like wining a dining a future wife. Start with the basics, make sure she is not psycho, then start to gauge her more subtle qualities!

So far I do not think ABCD's are psycho, they are wild (I like that), but they will not leave me pennyless and emotionally battered. Now I just have to see what makes them tick, what pushes buttons and what gets rewards.

75 trades is still not enough to start making concrete plans. For example, there is a subset of the 75 where a certain pattern of market action leads to 100% win rate. But it is only 5 instances. Think I am going build a system around that--heck no, but I may track it and see after 200 trades if it continues.

As I say, more to come, but check the journal, I do not wish to overtake Mr. Pip's thread. I will also open my journal up for questions and comments after 100 trades are done and an updates system is presented.

Cheers!
  • #3,116
  • Feb 21, 2013 11:02pm Feb 21, 2013 11:02pm
Quoting foxybunny
BroncoCap, I just went through all the 3 pages and charts in your journal.
It is terrific that you are doing a journal and posting those charts.

Are you drawing those fib manually or via the EA?

I noticed basically for majority of your charts that if I was to draw the fib lines, it would not be the lines you have drawn.
My fib lines may be:
- Longer lines than what you have
- in the opposite direction to what you have
- in a swing earlier on

Basically that could be the difference between using your eyes to draw the fib lines versus...
Foxy,
Very, very good points. These are manually drawn and you can see many are opposing trades, aka I get one wave, enter at 61.8AB, then when it moves 61.8 from entry (aka 61.8BC) then I put on the opposite directional trade. I also have a few examples where a major trend forms and I draw fibs from each significant retracement (even if it does not go 61.8AB). In essence, I am was just getting as many trades as I could. These were not cherry picked, they were with trend, counter-trend, in chop, ranging days, trending days. Just any "well-formed" wave over ~15pips.

Also, I trade roughly 8-9AM EST to 4AM EST. I miss the European session when the EURUSD really moves, I also miss some of the early east coast news releases. But again, I am approximating reality the best I can. I used to start trading 7AM EST (5AM for me) and was killing myself. No more, I need to see if I can log in at any time, identify a wave or two (only in EURUSD), and profit.

As for timeframe, yes I generally stick to 1min, but do go as far as 15min. Given my initial test account balance, I can only trade waves smaller than 250 pips and more importantly, the larger the wave, the worse my money management gets as I cannot go smaller than micro-lots. OANDA type any size orders would be sweet and really help. But for now, yes 1min and 5min, generally.

Give me another week of trades and after I reach 100, I will update the system, start another 100 trade test, and open my journal for questions and comments.

Cheers!
  • #3,117
  • Feb 21, 2013 11:06pm Feb 21, 2013 11:06pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Yes, books and manuals that are in my mind now. Just trying to give some guide lines to watch for as warning signs often exhibit themselves if a pattern is more likely to fail.

You will find gaps in fx, depends upon which tf you use. Yes, they are more often found in stock market as they close, but fx does have gaps, especially on smaller tf's. Some were exhibited tonight on GBP which would was a sign of strength. But if I see strength, I often will not take the trade or wait for some type of confirmation.

Since I am at home now, I have...

Yes to good books.

Access to my library also.

Larry Pesavento ( and Leslie Jouflas) : "Trade What You See".

Page 151-152, and all over the book.

Warning Signs:
These are the primary warning signs that we use to either prevent us from entering a trade or alert us to wait for signs that the momentum has slowed enough to enter the trade:

- Gaps in the CD leg.
- Long, wide range bars at or toward the completion point.
- Tail closes at or near the pattern completion point.
- Very steep CD leg as compared to the AB leg.


Confirmation Signs:
Use confirmation techniques to enter the trade at a low-risk point. The primary confirmation signs we use are:

- Tweezer bottom or top.
- Gap in the direction of the trade.
- Tail closes or long, wide range bars in the direction of the trade.
- Confirmation bar, meaning waiting one time bar before entering the trade.
  • #3,118
  • Feb 21, 2013 11:14pm Feb 21, 2013 11:14pm
Quoting foxybunny
Yes to good books.

Access to my library also.

Larry Pesavento ( and Leslie Jouflas) : "Trade What You See".

Page 151-152, and all over the book.

Warning Signs:
These are the primary warning signs that we use to either prevent us from entering a trade or alert us to wait for signs that the momentum has slowed enough to enter the trade:

- Gaps in the CD leg.
- Long, wide range bars at or toward the completion point.
- Tail closes at or near the pattern completion point.
- Very steep CD leg as compared to the AB leg.


[b]Confirmation...
Nice, I think that will be helpful for those having trouble with failure of harmonic patters. That is the one that is more in my head, I used Scott Carney as I believe that Mr. Pip suggested that book for this thread(I try to stop by and help out, but do not follow that closely.)
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #3,119
  • Feb 21, 2013 11:33pm Feb 21, 2013 11:33pm
Quoting BroncoCap
Foxy,
Very, very good points. These are manually drawn and you can see many are opposing trades, aka I get one wave, enter at 61.8AB, then when it moves 61.8 from entry (aka 61.8BC) then I put on the opposite directional trade. I also have a few examples where a major trend forms and I draw fibs from each significant retracement (even if it does not go 61.8AB). In essence, I am was just getting as many trades as I could. These were not cherry picked, they were with trend, counter-trend, in chop, ranging days, trending days. Just any "well-formed"...
BroncoCap, unsure when is 8-9AM EST.
Assuming it is near end of London session or after the London session ??

Agreed you need to find a trading session time that is suitable for you, and also find a currency that move a bit more during your trading time.

EUR/USD seem to move best in the European session and between both LON/USA crossover, and less during only USA session except for big news days like FOMC that is late news.

You may want to consider testing other currencies such as EUR/JPY or USD/JPY to see if it moves more during your trading session as EUR/JPY seem to be moving much more in recent months.
Other testing you may consider could be AUD/USD or USD/CAD as that is within USA sessions.

Since you mentioned you draw those lines manually, then go back and re-draw those lines again using the "Main Swing" idea.

I am not expecting you to trade wave of 250-pips or more.

Look at my earlier post on AUD/USD that was on a H1 chart, and you noticed that the 62% was around 1.0336, 78% was around 1.0353, and the 100% was around 1.0374.
Even on a larger 1-hour time frame, the stop loss here is only around 20-30-pips if you can enter exactly at 78%, and around 30-40-pips if you can enter exactly at 62%.

My meaning here is that more important on having a stop loss within your affordability regardless of the actual swing previously or after been huge.

Even using micro-lots for demo, try to see if you can open with at least 2 positions each time.
1 take profit early, 1 take profit later.

Not using tick charts, I still find M15 (rather than M5 or M1) gives the better swings that is easier to look for "Main Swing" idea.

OK, you keep going.
Looking forward to see the clear Charts for your next 100-trades.
  • #3,120
  • Feb 22, 2013 4:59am Feb 22, 2013 4:59am
Hello Foxy, what does "TWEEZER botoom or top" means? thx
Quoting foxybunny
Yes to good books.

Access to my library also.

Larry Pesavento ( and Leslie Jouflas) : "Trade What You See".

Page 151-152, and all over the book.

Warning Signs:
These are the primary warning signs that we use to either prevent us from entering a trade or alert us to wait for signs that the momentum has slowed enough to enter the trade:

- Gaps in the CD leg.
- Long, wide range bars at or toward the completion point.
- Tail closes at or near the pattern completion point.
- Very steep CD leg as compared to the AB leg.


[b]Confirmation...
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