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  • #5,521
  • Feb 20, 2013 12:51pm Feb 20, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting fxglider
The number of cz's per week.
No. The indi gives you that value. The one I'm looking for takes a little more work than that. Feel free to try again...
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #5,522
  • Feb 20, 2013 12:52pm Feb 20, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting Jayf19
The indie/dashboard is there to help us locate the very best CZ's possible....
Yes, but that does not account for the breakout which follows. See post above...
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #5,523
  • Feb 20, 2013 12:55pm Feb 20, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting Jayf19
....Guess I got lost along the way.
You had a perfect breakout that went into profit by over 50 pips, and you didn't even set a BE stop, because 50p wasn't good enough and 100p was what you were really after. What were you thinking??? Consider yourself long distance b-slapped! (LOL)
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #5,524
  • Feb 20, 2013 1:08pm Feb 20, 2013 1:08pm
Quoting forexhard
You had a perfect breakout that went into profit by over 50 pips, and you didn't even set a BE stop, because 50p wasn't good enough and 100p was what you were really after. What were you thinking??? Consider yourself long distance b-slapped! (LOL)
LOL

I absolutely agree that that one was far fetched... But then again, I was merely forward testing my settings, which as long as they win over 50 % of the time, I end up profitable. I hadn't yet decided upon my final approach in terms of MM, but i had the intention to consider using BE+ and trailing stops, but if my starting idea does not respect the system guidelines, I'll just have to start over and look up at a way to make it work for the time that I can invest into following and monitoring the CZs.

I know that my targets are a bit "extreme", or so to speak, but I'm having a hard time understanding how, at least for this pair (G/J), my settings don't follow the system.

Slap me silly if need be.
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  • #5,525
  • Feb 20, 2013 1:11pm Feb 20, 2013 1:11pm
The one thing you said that had the biggest impact on my trading success is this:

"The underlying concept behind SSBO is so simple it's hard: Wait until the market is doing "nothing" (relatively speaking) before setting out your plan of action. In other words: 1) When the market is active we do nothing; 2) When the market does nothing, this is when we plan for our next trade."

If a trader can understand this then you don't need the indicator...... but I like it so I use it :-)
  • #5,526
  • Feb 20, 2013 1:14pm Feb 20, 2013 1:14pm
Quoting fxglider
The one thing you said that had the biggest impact on my trading success is this:

"The underlying concept behind SSBO is so simple it's hard: Wait until the market is doing "nothing" (relatively speaking) before setting out your plan of action. In other words: 1) When the market is active we do nothing; 2) When the market does nothing, this is when we plan for our next trade."

If a trader can understand this then you don't need the indicator...... but I like it so I use it :-)
Somewhere, angels are weeping happy tears.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #5,527
  • Feb 20, 2013 1:57pm Feb 20, 2013 1:57pm
50 pips target on cable today was lovely....must say with the inclusion of SSBO in my trading carrier, there's been confidence in my trading....Thanks you fxh and xux...infact thanks to all in this thread...i love you guys
emotions when not properly managed acts as bariers
  • #5,528
  • Edited 2:17pm Feb 20, 2013 2:03pm | Edited 2:17pm
Quoting Jayf19
CHFJPY15M : S/L hit @ 25.6 pips (R:R was set to 1 : 3.125) In retrospect, I could have gone out with a 1:2 even though my settings were aiming for an 80 pips; or at the very least, once the 1:2 had been reached I could have brought the S/L to BE+. Anyhow, it can't be all winners so I'm not giving much more than this into it .
Do Not....under any circumstances....give this man another drink!

If you are going to be so bold, why not just close at +50 and enter again?

Edit: just read your testing post......im sure u wouldnt do that with real cash

I don't have the indi, but I would say its purpose is to locate areas of "inactivity"...
  • #5,529
  • Feb 20, 2013 2:27pm Feb 20, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting RideWinners
I don't have the indi, but I would say its purpose is to locate areas of "inactivity"...
Same answer I told Jay: Yes, but that does not account for the breakout which follows.

Trading, by necessity, means actively taking a position. Looking for CZ's is only the beginning of this process, and it's not the answer to the question.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #5,530
  • Feb 20, 2013 2:27pm Feb 20, 2013 2:27pm
Let me throw my 2 cents in - this is a breakout system. When price breaks out of a cz it does 3 things, runs, stalls, or retraces - the fundamental concept is to eliminate as many variables as possible. At the core of ssbo is the zen like "do nothingness". Either it is a cz or its not.

What I am seeing and doing is a lot of indicator management instead of trade management.

What do I mean: say from my journal I see that price will most often move 14 pips on a breakout before retracing. Why in the world would I have a tp at 30 and not do anything until price reaches 30? Because that's what gives me the highest pip total on the indicator? Trade management is about managing the trade - take a partial profit, move my stop whatever. whats important is at 14 pips - I have to make a choice and live with it. That is trade management.

This win to loss ratio is a handcuff - I can't do what I know I have to do because price hasn't moved where I say it has too because that's what I programmed into the indicator. That thinking is a trap and keeps me at the mercy of the market because now I am imposing a rule on myself that the market doesn't know exists.

What the indicator is really good at is showing me the probabilities based on market activity. This gives me a place to create a plan but in the end, I still have to manage the trade instead of the indicator to be successful.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #5,531
  • Edited 2:50pm Feb 20, 2013 2:36pm | Edited 2:50pm
Quoting forexhard
Same answer I told Jay: Yes, but that does not account for the breakout which follows.

Trading, by necessity, means actively taking a position. Looking for CZ's is only the beginning of this process, and it's not the answer to the question.
Understood........Isnt it true that we dont need to account for the breakout?

My new answer is this then: The indi gives a signal to take action......make the trade

Edit: I like sedonas answer......I vote for him
  • #5,532
  • Edited 3:15pm Feb 20, 2013 3:04pm | Edited 3:15pm
OK, I'll give it a shot.

CZs define areas of indecision or probably better to say, equilibrium. Some would call it supply balancing demand, others might describe it as price being constrained between support and resistance levels. We don't care - all that matters is that sooner or later the balance will tip in one direction or the other - and that my friends is a trade.

EDIT: I should just add, because it's quite important, that CZs are levels which price moves away from but also usually tends to return to ... but I assume most of you have seen that already ....
  • #5,533
  • Feb 20, 2013 3:19pm Feb 20, 2013 3:19pm
Quoting SedonaPipper
Let me throw my 2 cents in - this is a breakout system. When price breaks out of a cz it does 3 things, runs, stalls, or retraces - the fundamental concept is to eliminate as many variables as possible. At the core of ssbo is the zen like "do nothingness". Either it is a cz or its not.

What I am seeing and doing is a lot of indicator management instead of trade management.

What do I mean: say from my journal I see that price will most often move 14 pips on a breakout before retracing. Why in the world would I have a tp at 30 and not...
This is pretty much what I do actually... which is why I'm a bit confused. Let me elaborate on my thought process and the way I approach things in order that I do it :

First and most importantly : I value the length of the CZ most. Under EVERY pair, not a single one is based on less than 30 bars on the 15M, and 8-10 bars on the H1 (32-40).

Second : If my CZ/week is too high, I fiddle around with the width of the bars until I'm in the 2-3 CZ per week range. Higher quality CZ is what we are after, right?

Third : Since I am focusing solely on the initial breakout and no recovery trades, my thinking was that I should be looking at reducing my risk exposure by having it balanced with a proper reward. From here I compared my pairs with 1:1, 1:5, etc. Until i find something that suits my taste, on to the next step.

Fourth : Once I find a sweet spot, such as the one shown in my latest CHFJPY chart, I compare the total amounts of CZ based on different QTP. The reasonning behind that is that I want to get an idea of how many actual CZ are in the 100 days following my B x P. This is a way for me to confirm that my QTP wasn't randomly selected and carved to fit that particular 100 days back tested. I want to confirm that my high QTP isn't "hiding" a bunch of other "possible" CZs. And so I compare, how many CZ's are their with 40 pips, 60 pips, 80 pips. To give you an idea, the CHFJPY settings I have give me 41 CZ with 40 pips give me 25/16 (W/L), 60 pips give me 19/17 and 80 pips give me 18/15. This means that from 40 pips to 80 pips, the lingering effect of a higher TP "hides" 8 CZ.

From here, if I notice a major divergence in the number of CZs I get, I then prioritize my R:R approach (and here is where I consider that my reasoning might be flawed). I compare different settings in the 2-3 CZ / week range based on different R:R settings (still using a sensible length to ensure they are in fact CZs) and chose something that suits my style.

Fifth : I then go on and watch each and every past CZ to determine the plausibility of the results. This is more of a "personal analysis" without any numbers to support it. I just want to see if they're are "anomalies" or if the "breakouts" we're lingering and stalling to hit TP, or if they were fast to reach it.

Sixth : MM. I haven't had a chance to fully explore this area using my approach, but I already had planned into looking at multiple baskets to exit some lots earlier and moving a T/S along the way. If I can determine that out of my 55 % winners in CHF/JPY, X% of them make it to 1:1, or even a predetermined X amount of pips, that could limit my total exposure as well and do some trade management, as SP described.

PLEASE STOP ME if I am in the wrong direction!!
  • #5,534
  • Feb 20, 2013 3:33pm Feb 20, 2013 3:33pm
I am posting this because the currency charts have already been posted today...

Another shot of the Mini Russell.....I have to trade this a little differently than the currencies given the pip value, I set my stop at 10 with 3 contracts, has been very good lately....

Thinking about moving stop up to 15, 20 is probably optimal.....
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  • #5,535
  • Feb 20, 2013 3:50pm Feb 20, 2013 3:50pm
Jay, it sure does seem like you are doing your homework.......I prefer the "Trading for Dummies" approach, which this system is for me.

I would be interested to see the results of your analysis of the big breakouts. Do most go straight to your big profit goal or do they retrace, I assume from your trade earlier that u have determined many dont have a big retrace. I still think you should move the stop and trail regardless, if most dont retrace you will hit your big goal anyway...if they come back you make profit.....sure u miss a big one which eventually reverses again, but I dont think its a wise approach.

Please keep us updated tho, interesting stuff
  • #5,536
  • Feb 20, 2013 3:54pm Feb 20, 2013 3:54pm
Quoting RideWinners
Jay, it sure does seem like you are doing your homework.......I prefer the "Trading for Dummies" approach, which this system is for me.

I would be interested to see the results of your analysis of the big breakouts. Do most go straight to your big profit goal or do they retrace, I assume from your trade earlier that u have determined many dont have a big retrace. I still think you should move the stop and trail regardless, if most dont retrace you will hit your big goal anyway...if they come back you make profit.....sure u miss a big one...
But at the same time, I don't want to be misguiding anyone, if this is not how FXH envisions his approach.
  • #5,537
  • Edited 4:10pm Feb 20, 2013 3:58pm | Edited 4:10pm
Quoting Jayf19
....Third : Since I am focusing solely on the initial breakout and no recovery trades, my thinking was that I should be looking at reducing my risk exposure by having it balanced with a proper reward. From here I compared my pairs with 1:1, 1:5, etc. Until i find something that suits my taste, on to the next step.

Fourth : Once I find a sweet spot, such as the one shown in my latest CHFJPY chart, I compare the total amounts of CZ based on different QTP. The reasonning behind that is that I want to get an idea of how many actual CZ...
Quick Take Profit was the answer I was looking for. You didn't pick it out directly, but I have to give you credit at least for being the first person to mention it by name. For me, the QTP is the one vital piece of information that I look for first (and some times only.)

There are many peripherals in the dashboard that can easily cause a distraction, as we have just seen today. You can, as Jay has just demonstrated, spend entire days tweaking and curve-fitting, and still seem like the end is no where in sight.

Personally, I prefer a much simpler and more direct approach. First, I only treat the peripherals as peripherals. I try never to give them more attention than they deserve. The extra stats can be handy under the right conditions (or else why did I have them coded in the first place, right?), but they can also be easily misused. (My gut instinct tells me that the guys who do so are not entirely confident in their trading style, and go looking for crutches.)

So back to the QTP. How do I pick mine out? Well, once again it's so simple it's hard. I simply go to the Long/Short breakout stats and then pick a QTP range that seems to fit with the chart I am looking at. (The stats highlighted here are poorly titled. It says All Longs, etc., but it really stands for just the first trade of a set -- the breakout trade. It's going to be changed for the next version, so look for it.) But think about it for a second, let this sink in: If the average breakout is shown as 65p, why in the world would I then expect to have an 80p trade coming up? What would that be based on except my wild imagination? I'm not going to give away my private formula for figuring out my precise QTP based on these figures, but at the very least I have put a few more feet back on firm ground where they belong. Aiming for an 80-100p QTP when the averages are far less is suicidal imho.

And btw, this whole discussion ties back directly to the baseball parable that was brought back up a few days ago! Breakout averages... trades reversing... ball coming back after only going out halfway to the target... QTP... it all fits together like a perfect puzzle if you give it time to sink in.
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #5,538
  • Feb 20, 2013 4:22pm Feb 20, 2013 4:22pm
[quote=Jayf19;6462008]But at the same time, I don't want to be misguiding anyone, if this is not how FXH envisions his approach.[/


Take a week and do all trades without your indi.......I bet you will get better results and it will be easier to trade...Just an opinion of course.


I have been looking at CZ's for about a year and a half and understood what they were sitting there by themselves, they are pretty simple to spot.

The revelation was in stepping back and looking at the big picture, how they seem to have a personality that is fairly "predictable".....meaning how the price seems to breakout one way or another, then comes back at some point, consolidates again and the process starts all over is truly amazing.

This is what I feel Forexhard's message is.

While we have no idea what will happen at any one point in time, we do have a reasonable idea of what might occur in relation to a CZ and its subsequent breakout, this is the edge and I use it to manage the trade. I have been doing this without the indicator. While the indi is obviously full of info, there is no way to measure how it may negatively affect your brain when you are making trading decisions.

In my very humble opinion, the indicator should only be used by a very experienced trader. Your detailed analysis seems to prove this, its diverting your attention.


Edit: I was wondering when Forexhard would answer my parable question,,,,,,Thank you sir!!! Makes perfect sense, as usual!
  • #5,539
  • Feb 20, 2013 6:38pm Feb 20, 2013 6:38pm
Quoting forexhard
And btw, this whole discussion ties back directly to the baseball parable that was brought back up a few days ago! Breakout averages... trades reversing... ball coming back after only going out halfway to the target... QTP... it all fits together like a perfect puzzle if you give it time to sink in.
Thanks for taking the time to step in, much appreciated.

I feel like I just got a strike out, I get your baseball analogy
  • #5,540
  • Feb 20, 2013 8:58pm Feb 20, 2013 8:58pm
Just finished transferring my settings onto the new indicator and just have a question regarding the shadow grid. From what I have read the shadow grid is suppose to be based on your default settings and show a shadow box based on that. Why is it so large for the one in the EU chart then?

The GU one i can understand that there is potentially another zone forming within the first one. The EU one I still can not figure out. I notice that it goes to the swing highs and lows of the zone.
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