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  • #821
  • Feb 19, 2013 8:13am Feb 19, 2013 8:13am
Quoting stevexyg
Hey 60,

yes I see that completely, a very valuable safety net for certain trades but remember what we are playing here - intraday position on DO. Past two days (fri/mon) you have according to SP's rules two good trades on EU. Drawn down fri 5pips, max profit 40pips. Drawn down mon 10pips, max profit 47pips.
yeah the 2 good trades in the h4 range are when we have spiked out to daily s/r... daily highs
tradewith60
  • #822
  • Feb 19, 2013 8:32am Feb 19, 2013 8:32am
Quoting 60minuteman
yeah the 2 good trades in the h4 range are when we have spiked out to daily s/r... daily highs
Yes interestingly they have both created the daily highs.

Just looking at the theoretical trade I posted above (short at 3350) - I'm guessing anyone taking that would likely have targeted either yesterdays low 3320 or more conservatively the S/R just below (which is strong in this range) of around 3335.

To keep R/R at 3:1 you would have had 10pip SL for larger target (daily low) or 5pips for smaller target (support level).

Either way you would be out now. It was perhaps the fifth time today price had moved back to that level (from below or above) so probably it was invalidated as any big players with positions/orders in the area has had plenty of opportunity to resolve them leaving price free to go elsewhere.

Does any of that that make any sense? SP?
  • #823
  • Edited 11:26am Feb 19, 2013 9:33am | Edited 11:26am
Lots of questions guys. I will answer them all in full a little later. I am busy with some outside business.

This is what I did last night.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The EU has been textbook the last two days on levels. The ranges so far this week have been abysmal so I look a little better taking the quickie profits.

I don't look at the four hour range as a problem. There is plenty of room in there to get profits. Eu daily open and weekly close/open trades the last two days have been nice trades and all happening within the boundarys of that range. I said earlier in the thread my method works in trend and range. As Stevy said it is an intraday method looking for thirty to eighty pips(or the next big level).

California, I generally scale in when two big levels are stacked close together. I want the piece of a position if the price never reaches the second deeper level. The two M15 bar separation is only for the daily open setup. I just use it to avoid chop around the daily open price in fact three bars is better than two and four is better than three etc. Once the first trade has been entered I will take the trades as necessary. I was not in EJ last night but I do want to point out that the first trade triggered was the Weekly close/yesterday low. I would have longed there with a 40pip stop and would be holding that trade right now. This is a trade I might have tried to hold for a larger gain as it is off a weekly level and is not negative carry.

Guys if I missed any questions I will get back later. Off to the plumbing supply store.

EDIT: I have updated the chart to after London close. We are potentially breaking out of the range that we were speaking about earlier. For those of you that bought at the weekly open and are still long bravo. I was asleep and only got the TP at the level. One day I am going to get back to staying awake but simply too much going on right now.
  • #824
  • Feb 19, 2013 10:15am Feb 19, 2013 10:15am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I said earlier in the thread my method works in trend and range. As Stevy said it is an intraday method looking for thirty to eighty pips(or the next big level).
I also noticed that. These two days on EU haven't been easy but a good lesson i got from it is that the method works if you place reasonable targets and stops. A TP of at least 20 pips is not always bad for me. When i get it, i wait for a moment and look at the target levels.
But the game theory is clear, “as long as you have an edge you should continue to bet”.
  • #825
  • Feb 19, 2013 11:10am Feb 19, 2013 11:10am
Quoting stevexyg
Yes interestingly they have both created the daily highs.

Just looking at the theoretical trade I posted above (short at 3350) - I'm guessing anyone taking that would likely have targeted either yesterdays low 3320 or more conservatively the S/R just below (which is strong in this range) of around 3335.

To keep R/R at 3:1 you would have had 10pip SL for larger target (daily low) or 5pips for smaller target (support level).

Either way you would be out now. It was perhaps the fifth time today price had moved back to that level (from below...
Here's why I would not have shorted there. If you take a look at the chart we had chopped around the daily open level all morning. We had a winning short off last weeks close and price had gone down and rejected the weekly open. As the weekly open is a stronger level than the daily and price had already chopped around the daily level several times there was no reason to think it would hold for any meaningful gain. As there is almost always some type of reaction at these levels it could be had for a scalp but there is no real gain in that in my opinion. I would much rather wait to see if last weeks close gets taken out and get long off that level (this happened quite nicely later). I would not short last week's close again as I had already played it short early during European trading and since we had such a nice move up off the weekly open I want to be long until a new entry changes that.
  • #826
  • Feb 19, 2013 11:16am Feb 19, 2013 11:16am
Quoting forexalien
Anyone jump into the http://www.surefiretradingchallenge.com/

Trading challenge last week? Coming up on the 5th day of 60 days, ranging has slowed me , but this is what I have so far......
The participants in these trading challenges generally use super dangerous money management to win. You have to have crazy account growth in a short time to win because someone will always hit a lucky streak going all in. If they ever devise a trading challenge over five years I might consider entering. That would weed out all the plungers over time and leave only the good traders at the end. For now since these trading challenges are all short term and gambling in nature I don't bother.
  • #827
  • Feb 19, 2013 11:19am Feb 19, 2013 11:19am
Quoting lemna
Seneca, thank you for a great thread and for sharing.

What you have said about taking losses is something that tends to be ignored. I would say the hardest skill for most to develop as a trader is the ability to watch paper profits turn into losses without deviating or letting it impact your trading or your life. It is essential for success.

I have looked at the levels you use for EU over some historical data and one thing that stands out is how on some days when several of the levels bunch together they really point the way to the line of least...
Yes the more levels that stack up in an area the better the trade will generally turn out. Daily highs and lows are my favorite. They often have little drawdown and go for nice gains.
  • #828
  • Feb 19, 2013 6:09pm Feb 19, 2013 6:09pm
One thing I've noticed is that the yen pairs tend to respect the levels of the daily close at 12am london time. While the USD pairs will respect the levels of the daily close at 12am NYC time.

GJ, and EJ (london)..... and GU, EU (nyc) were the pairs I used when researching this so I can't comment on any others.... Anyone else done any back testing on this? I'd like to hear some other opinions. I could very well be wrong.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #829
  • Feb 19, 2013 7:17pm Feb 19, 2013 7:17pm
Quoting Xhale12
One thing I've noticed is that the yen pairs tend to respect the levels of the daily close at 12am london time. While the USD pairs will respect the levels of the daily close at 12am NYC time.

GJ, and EJ (london)..... and GU, EU (nyc) were the pairs I used when researching this so I can't comment on any others.... Anyone else done any back testing on this? I'd like to hear some other opinions. I could very well be wrong.
I spent a lot of time looking at this. The answer isn't easy. Both levels work to an extent. Over time it pretty much evens out. Sometimes price will bounce off one then go to the other then go back through the first. Many times the two prices will be very close to each other. These usually are the best trades. If you did a thorough study you would probably find that the win ratios would be very close together. The reason for this is that (these are made up percentages) about 40% of days will have the two prices be nearly the same, 30% the GMT price will be the winner, and 30% the Eastern price will be the winner. I stick with the Midnight eastern price but I do encourage everyone to test and decide for themselves.

Xhale you are doing the right things and will probably succeed because you are putting in the work to come to your own conclusions. Well done, the more you dig the more you will learn.
  • #830
  • Feb 19, 2013 9:12pm Feb 19, 2013 9:12pm
A nice 60+ pip rejection of Monday high and stalling just 1 pip above today open.
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  • #831
  • Feb 19, 2013 9:30pm Feb 19, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting hubby7
A nice 60+ pip rejection of Monday high and stalling just 1 pip above today open.

Nice trade if you caught it. Not a time that I trade. What are you using for your daily open?
  • #832
  • Feb 20, 2013 5:23am Feb 20, 2013 5:23am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Nice trade if you caught it. Not a time that I trade. What are you using for your daily open?
Im from gmt+8 .I use 6am my time as the market open following my broker price reset of the daily H/L.I normally trade the early Tokyo session and before London
open I normally already close shop.
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  • #833
  • Feb 20, 2013 5:37am Feb 20, 2013 5:37am
Could have made quite a bit just playing the rejections off the daily/weekly open, and yesterdays open..... I only took one short and was stopped out on 2 other positions at BE (held for a break). Will take the break of either direction.
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What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #834
  • Feb 20, 2013 7:07am Feb 20, 2013 7:07am
Quoting hubby7
Im from gmt+8 .I use 6am my time as the market open following my broker price reset of the daily H/L.I normally trade the early Tokyo session and before London
open I normally already close shop.
Nice time zone you live in. I could start trading my times at 1PM your time. A chance to sleep in would be nice.
  • #835
  • Feb 20, 2013 7:14am Feb 20, 2013 7:14am
Quoting Xhale12
Could have made quite a bit just playing the rejections off the daily/weekly open, and yesterdays open..... I only took one short and was stopped out on 2 other positions at BE (held for a break). Will take the break of either direction.
It seems its stuck between last week's close and this week's open. When it breaks out could be for the rest of the week. Could be the trade of the week.
  • #836
  • Feb 20, 2013 7:18am Feb 20, 2013 7:18am
This is all I did last night. It looked like such a good entry at the daily low but could not reach even the daily open so out with a crappy 18.2 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Meanwhile GU did this. Time to start watching the dollar pairs again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hope everyone had a good trading day today.
  • #837
  • Feb 20, 2013 8:22am Feb 20, 2013 8:22am
Hey, SC.

Wanted to drop in and thank you. You are without question one of the best people I have had the pleasure of meeting.

On top of that, you also have a very good trading method and teach it well. I came out of my trade with profit in the end. (a rather nice profit).

My broker lost their feed and I was dead in the water but it all worked out. Going broker hunting today I think.

Again, thanks.

Mike
  • #838
  • Feb 20, 2013 8:56am Feb 20, 2013 8:56am
Quoting tubguy
Hey, SC.

Wanted to drop in and thank you. You are without question one of the best people I have had the pleasure of meeting.

On top of that, you also have a very good trading method and teach it well. I came out of my trade with profit in the end. (a rather nice profit).

My broker lost their feed and I was dead in the water but it all worked out. Going broker hunting today I think.

Again, thanks.

Mike
I'm glad it worked out. I replied to your PM just now.
  • #839
  • Feb 20, 2013 9:32am Feb 20, 2013 9:32am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I'm glad it worked out. I replied to your PM just now.
thanks. I'm off broker hunting today. Good luck to all.
  • #840
  • Feb 20, 2013 9:34am Feb 20, 2013 9:34am
Trade of the week?

Time will tell.
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