No Free Lunch but all the Free Coffee you can drink

Just wanted to say this thread is still being read!

I am sure I was on the other side of some of Peter Crown's DM trades n the 80's as I was learning....

...and from me to you PC, a big hat tip for teaching me something new, with humility, generocity and amazing patience.

Respect.

Petercrowns a.k.a Therealthing fooled y'all.

Very serious statement there Pemully. Got anything to back it up?

I remember Petercrowns writing that way back he learnt DIBs from TRT and that he will be forever grateful. What are the odds? back patting?
TRT started a blog posting some crazy returns which could not be verified,plus a dude in FF traced him to be an 'online marketer'.It doesn't add up.

Then gather up the evidence, copy/paste it and email the whole thing to Twee to get both people tossed out on their ear!

Hello

Once in trade: How to manage DIBS (free trade)

Anybody could pin point links related to how to manage a trade once the first target as been reached and we got a free trade.. I'm looking trough the thread, but did not found the info yet.

I understand this is a personal choice, so I'm open to different opinion.

Martin

Excuse my English

Interesting information if one takes the time to research who people are that post in forums. What I have found is weird in regards to "TRT" Joel Rensink. I don't think it was a "serious statement" made earlier by pemully, though I am not sure I agree with it. Also, I am not sure posting personal information about someone on an open forum is necessary and isn't good taste, so I will leave people to do their own due diligence. It does amaze me how forum users tend to hold faith in just anyone at times.

The guy was online 2 days back, after so long ....on March 15th, 2013.
http://www.forexfactory.com/petercrowns

Dang, i missed something ...something related .
Peter..... if u read here again, kindly just email me Forex.Saint <AT> MailNull.com.
I have something interesting(for me & prolly for u) to discuss. Just a ping is enough.
Regards

TMI dude...

JK!

hi, thakyou for your sharing, now i have to match it with my timezone.
and hey i think i need alot of coffee because it will be midnight in my place.

Threads like this and guys like Peter are why I still love the internet

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Really? So this elegant writing comes from the same 'dude' we see on YouTube talking about his thrift shop purchases??

Hello Peter,
I was about to send you a personal message but thought it would be better to post it in public so that others can see how your guidance helped a lot of guys.

I have been reading your material for more than 4 months now and truly impressed with the simplicity of your method. I have tested it quite a times and it makes sense. I am indebted to you for sharing this information.

I would also like to know If you offer any sort of paid help to mongers like me? Please don't take me wrong but the title of the post says it all I have had the coffee and now I want to have a lunch, If you consider me worthy enough.


Thanks again for your advice that has changed lives of many. Loved it when you said "Wish you luck but you won't need it anymore!"

Entry.

In regards to the 1hr chart inside bar. Is the entry based on x amount of pips + spread above/below the inside bar? Or do you wait for a 1hr close above/below?

Has anyone looked at a 5 min close above below etc.?

By the way this thread is gold.

Thanks Peter.

Hi SufiFx,
I think you should have a look at this: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=86766&page=2

Here the Jaroo has summarized and explained things in detail. If you would like to discuss more let me know and we can skype. FYI, I have been reading this thread for more than 6 months now and honestly this seems to be a simple strategy but takes time to master.

Thanks!

I undersand the logic of the "open candle", ending of the asian session , coming into the opening of Europe.

Hardly any trade happens right on the first hour, and the highest volatility is usually in the beginning of London, and again in the beginning of N York.

Peter also mentioned people being successfull trading the asian hours, with their respective currencies: usd jpy , aussies , Nzd...

It´s just common sense..

what a great thread ! I stumbled upon by accident and it turned out the best thing thats happened to me as far as fx goes.
"trading doesn't have to be difficult or complex in fact it may seem too easy, but that makes up for the times where you had small losses" well said the true vet !

Hello everyone!
Encountered this thread occasionally and it looks really interesting! Of course I would like to thank Peter Crowns for interesting insights! It looks as really interesting basis for the trading strategy.
I've read thru the whole thread and decided to made some backtesting based on info provided here. Actually what I would like to discuss is some mixed results I've got - I've backtested for years 2008 to 2014.
Here is the EA I've made to backtest the strategy - you are welcome to use it.



EA Description
The strategy is fairly simple and implements Peter Crowns methodology - we are identifying the close price of the previews day and if inside bar was formed between the trading hours (for example 6 GMT and 22 GMT) placing stop orders above and/or below it. All orders which are not hit expire at the end of the trading interval (i.e. at 22 GMT).
Inside bar definition (BTW this is one of the section which is under the question for me):
- "child" bar min > "parent" bar min, "child" bar max < "parent" bar max
- "child" bar body < "parent" bar body
- "parent" candle is bearish and "child" is bullish and opposite

Pending orders are placed on min and max of the "child" candle + spread.

If I understood Peter's original idea the stops should be placed on opposite side of the child candle. Here is another part I've a question about (and open to discuss): my experiments show that because we are not controlling the side of the candles the stops could be too tight - i.e. the trade doesn't have place to breath. So this part was slightly changed - I'm using % of the account to risk for each trade here.

Main Parameters:
DayStart - hour when trading starts broker time (my broker is +2 GMT) - i.e. when specified 8 it means that trades could be placed only after 8:00
DayEnd - hour when trading ends - i.e. when set to 22 means that all pending orders will expire after this time - 23:00
RiskRatio = % of account to risk on each trade - i.e. 0.08 means that we are risking with 8% of our balance per trade
TrailStopIntervalMins - time interval to trail stops - i.e. when set to 30 it will be trailing the stops each 30 minutes after order open time
TrailStop - flag to set trailing stop on/off (always set to ON)

Additional parameters:
SkipMonths - ";"-separated list of numbers of months when not to trade (not used yet)
SkipHours - ";"-separated list of numbers of hours when not to trade (not used yet)
Slippage - used to set slippage (set to 5 by default)
LotsPer100 - this EA uses dynamic position size and here we can specify how many lots to set per each $100 of balance (set to 0.02 by default)
TimeFrame - timeframe we are using to trade (curently its set to H1)
TimeFrameLong - longer timeframe to identify day-end close price (set to D1) - this one is used to identify day-end price

Methodology
To understand how the strategy behaves I'm performing the following operation. For each year from 2008 to 2014 I'm trying to find combination of parameters DayStart, DayEnd, RiskRatio and TrailStopIntervalMins which gives the best results and see what are these results - i.e. profit, drawdown and number of trades.
Ranges for the parameters:
DayStart - 4 to 8, step 1 hour
DayEnd - 21 to 23, step 1 hour
RiskRatio - 0.05 to 0.1, step 0.01 (i.e. we are risking in range of 5% to 10% of account per trade - where 10% is actually pretty insane )
TrailStopIntervalMins - 5 to 60, step 5 mins

Initial account balance - $3 000
Pair - EURUSD

Results
Below are the results. Please note that these results are with different values for each of these four parameters
2008/1/1 - 2009/1/1


2009/1/1 - 2010/1/1
No successful results here - i.e. strategy blows it with any combination of parameter
Note. I would say that 2009 is not a "typical" year due to the crisis and the stuff. But still it will be good to have the strategy which would skip such unpleasant periods because usually we know that this is the "bad" year only once it's already passed or we are in the vey middle of it and blew our account already

2010/1/1 - 2011/1/1


2011/1/1 - 2012/1/1


2012/1/1 - 2013/1/1
No successful results

2013/1/1 - 2014/1/1


2014/1/1 - 2015/1/1


So here is the questions I would like to discuss:
1. First of all we can see that even with optimized parameters the results vary pretty significantly - i.e. one year you can make 10x or even more of initial balance, but on other years it completely blows or makes somthing like +50% to 100%. How we can make it more stable - i.e. let's say have just 2x-3-x of account per year will be ok but we should have more or less stable results in the long run.
2. Also you can notice the drawdowns - and they are big! How to stabilize it? I would say that for me personnaly 35%-40% drawdown is ok in case if I can double in the long run each year.
3. Because the market is changing from year to year - what process should we use to select always the parameters close to optimal ones? The only data we have is the past - which methodologies we can use to find the parameters which at least will not destroy our account?

Feel free to express your ideas/criticism/suggestions

(TO BE CONTINUED...)

(CONTINUE)
Ok, so yesterday I've continued my analysis and figured out how to handle the failed years - 2009 and 2012. I've made the LotsPer100 also variable and starts finding "perfect" value for each period - so as the result we have five optimization parameters:
DayStart - 4 to 8, step 1 hour
DayEnd - 21 to 23, step 1 hour
RiskRatio - 0.05 to 0.1, step 0.01
TrailStopIntervalMins - 5 to 60, step 5 mins
LotsPer100 - 0.01 to 0.05, step 0.01

Now when optimizing this strategy for each of these years we can easiliy see how the parameters are changing with the market. Also I've noticed that what really affects the strategy is two parameters - its RiskRatio and LotsPer100. It seems like it somehow depends on the bars range (ATR?) - I haven't figured out how to express it mathematically yet....
So actually there are four variations of these parameters which really affects the results:
1. RiskRatio = max, LotsPer100 = max
2. RiskRatio = min, LotsPer100 = max
3. RiskRatio = max, LotsPer100 = min
4. RiskRatio = min, LotsPer100 = min

So again, here the challenge I'm facing: IF SOMEHOW it will be possible based on the previous/current market state to identify whether RiskRatio and LotsPer100 should be increased/decreased we could get the strategy adjustable to the market changes. I've got a gut feeling that somehow it could be deducted from the market fluctuations we are facing in the current period of time - for example, the rule should be something like "if ATR for last N bars go up then we need RiskRatio up andLotsPer100 down" etc... Or it could be somehow based on bigger timeframes - for example whether daily bars get bigger so market starts doing bigger swings...

So guys I really appreciate any help! From my side I can implement and share the code for the EA based on the results of our "collective mind" so everyone could test his ideas and share it here.