Turning Points

Dear Davit, it shouldn't be puzzling to you. Everyone makes mistakes on their journey to becoming a successful trader and I am far from perfect as well. You can be sure that I have learned from this mistake and that these I have a very stringent approach to risk management and would never let a 300 pip trade hit breakeven.

Hello all,

I was away for the weekend on business and missed some wild action on the E/J. This would have been a great setup:



Let's see what this week brings. Good luck to all!

There isn't much motivation to trade with the price action so slow however this is a decent R/R trade as the upside seems to be capped by this trendline and we have triple bearish divergence on the stochs on the 1hr chart.

I am live for a small position short.

The situation with GBP is looking increasingly bearish

Hi Marquis, I am reading your thread since you started. I am really impressed that you have a very good knowledge of actions of indicators like divergence and wick formation on the candles. But I doubt the way your thread is going it will soon dry up because the trades you are taking, its probability will be 50:50. The reason, its based solely on indicators and price action. The most important part in your strategy is missing and i read in your first reply that you don't like patterns. I understand these patterns most of the times gives you the misleading information or the information that is not correlated to your trading style. But if you keep a basic formation of the chart in your mind the results will be far better. And the most important thing is "Bigger is the better", mean watching these formations on bigger time frame will improve the results drastically. These basic formations are M & W formations and Peaks and Trough. Let me post one chart of EURJPY 4hr, there is a W formation that is not yet complete so I ll wait till it mature to form W then watch out divergence for fruitful results.

Hi Drone, welcome to my thread and thanks for your comments. I realize that sometimes my trades are 50/50 - especially on days like today given the lack of action in the markets and lack of compelling momentum which is why I limit my positions to a fraction of the size I would normally trade. I always keep in mind the larger time-frames and try to trade in the direction of the trend, but the caveat is that I try to catch the 'turning point' of the trend - i.e. my philosophy is "the trend is your friend unless the trend is about to end" - I find higher risk/reward scenarios trading from a contrarian perspective and currently I am bearish on EUR/USD (due to bearish engulfing candle on weekly chart and daily chart on 4th Feb). The JPY story is interesting and hence EUR/JPY has come a long way up which means it should have some nice swings down as people start taking profits. I realize I am tinkering on the edge however I do operate with tight stoplosses and when the trade finally does swing in my way there will be exciting profits and pips to make. In terms of patterns, I cannot focus on everything otherwise I tend to lose focus - as such I focus on breakouts, divergences, 13 counts and candlestick formations which have served me well in the past.

I do welcome alternative points of view of course and am interested in learning new things about how you trade and how you view markets

out at +3. This is what I am keeping an eye on for tomorrow:

Analysis was correct yesterday in that price was heading down. No matter still got something out of it.

hey,
this is what i was talking about, very clear in usdcad 4hr.

hey I agree with your analysis - from my analysis I see the same potential (using different indicators):

Hi marquis,
i m expecting bullish scenario in eurusd, what's your opinion?

Hey there, I am bearish medium-long term EUR/USD due to bearish engulfing candle on 4th February and engulfing candle on the weekly chart as well. I haven't been trading it as it has generally been range-bound. It is however possible that the pop-upwards today might show some continuation of a rally but I wouldn't personally trade it as the R/R isn't appealing enough to me.

yes u r right, but weekly candle trying to turn previous candle as hanging man and more over daily candle closed above second last weekly closing price as well.

I'm short

Stoploss set to breakeven

I think cable has bottomed.. if I were a betting man I think the downside is exhausted. Let's see how today closes before I establish any more positions. If we see more bullish intraday action the candle could close as a bullish piercing pattern indicating upside.