What are the market turning points? | Forex Factory

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What are the market turning points?

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 14, 2015 6:38pm Aug 14, 2015 6:38pm
Sometimes I see a perfectly trending pair, whatever and then I remember this chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 147 KB


For 10 years was a nice trending, except a few months.
It is just trade blind: open a long position and when you have enough floating profit open another one.... and you become billionaire, well in 10 years.
Then something happent.
The chart is for Gold / USD.

Bitcoin too: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bits...zm1g10zm2g25zv
3 years up, then down

- and many many. Even the most popular EUR/USD: from 2001 to 2008 up ( 7 years) then down, then ranging down.


Are the the FOCM statements?
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #2
  • Aug 15, 2015 12:18am Aug 15, 2015 12:18am
Gold strategy was 'Buy and Hold' many years then things changed after the financial crisis in 2008
  • #3
  • Aug 16, 2015 11:01pm Aug 16, 2015 11:01pm
GBP/NZD weekly chart

It seems to be a possibility to came down, because has issues to go up more

What are the fundamentals?

GBP - the low unemployment?
NZD - ? Weak JPY, CNY, http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar...5#detail=55114 CashRate shouldn't affect so much
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gpbnzd_weekly.png Size: 111 KB
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #4
  • Aug 17, 2015 12:53am Aug 17, 2015 12:53am
Well, if we only knew
Unfortunately the game is about guessing and probabilities
Using the RobotFX EAs for a while https://www.robotfx.org/
  • #5
  • Aug 17, 2015 2:19am Aug 17, 2015 2:19am
Quoting wattaman
Well, if we only knew Unfortunately the game is about guessing and probabilities
We will get to know about the trading levels which are safe for us only after we have done some practice and also know about the markets in depth. This is how we are going to place such trades that are profitable.

Because it will only come to us with some experience
Trading in Forex since 8 years
  • #6
  • Aug 17, 2015 2:39am Aug 17, 2015 2:39am
Quoting matheszabi
What are the fundamentals?
I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second.
~ Paul Tudor Jones

Alex
  • #7
  • Aug 17, 2015 2:55am Aug 17, 2015 2:55am
Quoting wattaman
Well, if we only knew Unfortunately the game is about guessing and probabilities
Well, the game is not about guessing because you will be right if you say "each one of us can see an uptrend or a downtrend looking at the same chart" but even in a subjective world you can conclude to an objective perspective. This game is not about knowing what other people see, this game is about eliminating your subjective point of view.

Alex
  • #8
  • Aug 17, 2015 10:00am Aug 17, 2015 10:00am
trade your reality
Closer To Dream
  • #9
  • Aug 17, 2015 1:21pm Aug 17, 2015 1:21pm
No "information" in this post: this is purely a second-hand impression, albeit from a good source. I know nothing about this GBP/NZD pair, myself; but I was reading about it elsewhere, and a very successful hedge-fund trader, whose opinions are quite good, has just told me that if he had to take a view on it, he'd guess that when its current range breaks, there's about a 65% chance that it will be upwards, through all the resistance just above, and that if he "had to take a longer-term position on it" (which he doesn't, and won't, himself) he'd therefore "rather be long than short".
  • #10
  • Aug 18, 2015 4:55am Aug 18, 2015 4:55am
Quoting alexx90
{quote} Well, the game is not about guessing because you will be right if you say "each one of us can see an uptrend or a downtrend looking at the same chart" but even in a subjective world you can conclude to an objective perspective. This game is not about knowing what other people see, this game is about eliminating your subjective point of view. Alex
Well then... If not probabilities and guesses, what is the answer to the question "What are the market turning points?"
Using the RobotFX EAs for a while https://www.robotfx.org/
  • #11
  • Aug 18, 2015 5:25am Aug 18, 2015 5:25am
Quoting wattaman
{quote} Well then... If not probabilities and guesses, what is the answer to the question "What are the market turning points?"
Your question is biased, it seems you would know market turning points in order to anticipate them and make a profit. Your way of thinking is safer it's less stressful for your mind, and that is the way mind works, it's a way to protect itself but in this case it's bringing you away from the point of interest.
Ask yourself:
- Why do I want to know what are market turning points? Create an hypotetical situation (in your mind) where you've found the answer to market turning points and then ask how do I feel?
-Do I really need to predict the future (that is uncertain) in order to profit from market?"
Oh the idea of future related with human emotions it's an extended argument.
Have you ever poured water inside a cup? I think yes. Do you think that water need to know where are corners inside the cup in order to fit with it? Answer is no. Water simply flow.

Alex
  • #12
  • Aug 18, 2015 6:09am Aug 18, 2015 6:09am
Quoting alexx90
{quote} Your question is biased, it seems you would know market turning points in order to anticipate them and make a profit. Your way of thinking is safer it's less stressful for your mind, and that is the way mind works, it's a way to protect itself but in this case it's bringing you away from the point of interest. Ask yourself: - Why do I want to know what are market turning points? Create an hypotetical situation (in your mind) where you've found the answer to market turning points and then ask how do I feel? -Do I really need to predict the...
Not mine, I was just trying to answer matheszabi's question as simple as I could, so he can understand it. It's in the title.
On the other hand - no offense intended - I have no idea what you're saying .. a psychological approach to trading, maybe?!
But yes, I'd like to predict the market, the future, everything. Doesn't everyone?

Anyway, matheszabi, when you'll find the method to predict the turning points, please share it
Bafta
Using the RobotFX EAs for a while https://www.robotfx.org/
  • #13
  • Edited 1:11pm Aug 18, 2015 9:32am | Edited 1:11pm
Quoting matheszabi
What are the fundamentals? GBP - the low unemployment? NZD - ? Weak JPY, CNY, http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar...5#detail=55114 CashRate shouldn't affect so much
Probable reasons for recent rise in GBPNZD ---

Market sees GBP as stable:
 Interest rate hike anticipated in first half of 2016
 Positive comments from BOE about UK economy
 Inflation and employment numbers continue to be stable
 Positive election result back in May

NZD is considered highly bearish:
 Two recent 25bps interest rate cuts, with the possibility of more to come
 Large fall in dairy prices (NZ's major export)
 RBNZ indicated that NZD was overvalued, wanted to see NZDUSD at ~ 0.65
 Fall across the board of commodity currencies (NZD/AUD/CAD)

Or if you prefer TA, the same is reflected in the attached strength plots.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PPI 283.png Size: 169 KB
  • #14
  • Aug 18, 2015 6:40pm Aug 18, 2015 6:40pm
Inserted Video

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=553808
http://www.infowars.com/economic-cri...-buys-up-gold/

So it will come the end of the Currency?
Maybe is the perfect time to buy Gold, bitcoin, real estate?
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #15
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:40am Aug 19, 2015 5:40am
Quoting matheszabi
Maybe is the perfect time to buy Gold, bitcoin, real estate?

Well, maybe not bitcoin, just at the moment, after yesterday's news? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-33974826
  • #16
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:14am Aug 21, 2015 2:14am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Probable reasons for recent rise in GBPNZD --- Market sees GBP as stable:  Interest rate hike anticipated in first half of 2016  Positive comments from BOE about UK economy  Inflation and employment numbers continue to be stable  Positive election result back in May NZD is considered highly bearish:  Two recent 25bps interest rate cuts, with the possibility of more to come  Large fall in dairy prices (NZ's major export)  RBNZ indicated that NZD was overvalued, wanted to see NZDUSD at...
David - which currency strength indicator is that, please ? I see you've written and linked to quite a few, some of which may no longer work in current builds of MT4...

Edit : think I've found the components and I see you are no longer coding for MT4, so please ignore. So sorry !
  • #17
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:18am Aug 21, 2015 3:18am
Quoting jtrade
{quote} David - which currency strength indicator is that, please ? I see you've written and linked to quite a few, some of which may no longer work in current builds of MT4... Edit : think I've found the components and I see you are no longer coding for MT4, so please ignore. So sorry !
J,

The line-based one is 'Recent Strength', the histogram is 'CSM original'. More info here, and the latest .ex4 files exist in the 'indicators etc.zip' file attached to that post. These .ex4s run on the latest MT4 versions (hence I was able to produce the screenshot), but their .mq4s (if/where available) would need to be compiled using the build 509 compiler.

David
  • #18
  • Aug 21, 2015 5:57pm Aug 21, 2015 5:57pm
HI
the most important feature for me is high, low, low high ,H.L. TO GIVE BULLISH SIGN
IF 1=2 THEN MOST PROBPLEY IT IS A RETRACE
all have a nice week end
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #19
  • Aug 21, 2015 6:32pm Aug 21, 2015 6:32pm
Quoting orabi
HI the most important feature for me is high, low, low high ,H.L. TO GIVE BULLISH SIGN IF 1=2 THEN MOST PROBPLEY IT IS A RETRACE all have a nice week end
​
let me explain in details please
if H.1+L.2=h2 then we look for l.2 and h3 it is in this shape look at this letter w please 1 + 2 =3
all have a nice weekend.
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #20
  • Aug 21, 2015 6:35pm Aug 21, 2015 6:35pm
Vv is bullish sign

W , war which leads to retrace

that's all
focus while relaxed to see better
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