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NZD/USD

  • #1,141
  • Feb 14, 2013 1:12am Feb 14, 2013 1:12am
Up to where this pair is going???
  • #1,142
  • Feb 14, 2013 8:53am Feb 14, 2013 8:53am
Quoting abuhashim
Up to where this pair is going???
nobody knows.You are not asking the right question.Right question would be "what is the probability this pair going lot higher like 100-400pips.
I think very small.If you zoom out on your chart and look at it weekly and monthly you'll see only time it reached 88 was in july 2011 and after that for 2yrs this pair has been ranging.
So I went short because probability of this pair going down to 84 and below is greater then it going up 88.This could be another instance of this pair going up to 88 and in markets nothing is 100% so as traders there is no "safe" order hence risk is part of the game.
No risk no gain.Usually pairs don't go up,up,up,up,up,up starting from 4th day pressure is building for retrace at 7th day almost guaranteed.
This is an exhaustion point.
50% retrace is 84 .618 8379 these 2 numbers are important.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu.gif Size: 28 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,143
  • Feb 14, 2013 9:20am Feb 14, 2013 9:20am
Quoting Mr. Scott
Nice idea.
added another short total 4
I will hold until hit target.Great trading to you
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,144
  • Feb 14, 2013 9:22am Feb 14, 2013 9:22am
imho

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1360813977
not euphoria follower
  • #1,145
  • Feb 14, 2013 9:39am Feb 14, 2013 9:39am
Quoting iqyu5an
imho
I think so unless you want to hold for months.Negative interest on this pair is expansive so holding shorts too long not profitable.
I have reasonable target 8370 area.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,146
  • Edited 11:46pm Feb 14, 2013 3:09pm | Edited 11:46pm
totally agree mate....

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360914120
Quoting iqyu5an
8250-8275 ?

iqyu5an : any drop further.. 8350an ... should provide support down there......bounce and drop
13-02-2013 12:21:44
however...bear still faces strong bull with their green grass aniway .


Quoting Davit
I think so unless you want to hold for months.Negative interest on this pair is expansive so holding shorts too long not profitable.
I have reasonable target 8370 area.
not euphoria follower
  • #1,147
  • Feb 15, 2013 9:02am Feb 15, 2013 9:02am
Quoting Davit
nobody knows.You are not asking the right question.Right question would be "what is the probability this pair going lot higher like 100-400pips.
I think very small.If you zoom out on your chart and look at it weekly and monthly you'll see only time it reached 88 was in july 2011 and after that for 2yrs this pair has been ranging.
So I went short because probability of this pair going down to 84 and below is greater then it going up 88.This could be another instance of this pair going up to 88 and in markets nothing is 100% so as traders there is...
A fantastic post, and shows that we have a very similar approach to markets and trading. Finding points where the odds are stacked against a currency going in a given direction accounts for 95% of my trading, and the fact is, NZD is at a point where there is a lot stacked against it going TOO far above this point.

At present, NZD broke through that resistance line of 8470-8480 only to be rejected fairly quickly. To me its an encouraging sign for NZD bears.
  • #1,148
  • Feb 15, 2013 10:08am Feb 15, 2013 10:08am
Quoting feelmypecs
A fantastic post, and shows that we have a very similar approach to markets and trading. Finding points where the odds are stacked against a currency going in a given direction accounts for 95% of my trading, and the fact is, NZD is at a point where there is a lot stacked against it going TOO far above this point.

At present, NZD broke through that resistance line of 8470-8480 only to be rejected fairly quickly. To me its an encouraging sign for NZD bears.
Thanks for nice comment brother.

Closed all my shorts.+48pips.I don't like to have orders open in weekends
good trading to all
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,149
  • Feb 15, 2013 12:19pm Feb 15, 2013 12:19pm
Quoting Davit
nobody knows.You are not asking the right question.Right question would be "what is the probability this pair going lot higher like 100-400pips.
I think very small.If you zoom out on your chart and look at it weekly and monthly you'll see only time it reached 88 was in july 2011 and after that for 2yrs this pair has been ranging.
So I went short because probability of this pair going down to 84 and below is greater then it going up 88.This could be another instance of this pair going up to 88 and in markets nothing is 100% so as traders there...
You are totally right, thanks a lot for your inputs.
  • #1,150
  • Feb 17, 2013 8:55am Feb 17, 2013 8:55am
went long on friday without looking up the higher timeframe, expected it to go higher due to good news of thursday, will have a nice headache healing the position Have to work on entries more
  • #1,151
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:43am Feb 17, 2013 10:43am
Gidday from NZ

I always short this pair,I shorted 85.4.

Yes it could go higher,the exporters moan,they will sell some bonds,

I did take a long 84.9 on the good news an it dropped.

It took a week 85.4 to come out.

In that week 20 shorts to one long

See what happens this week
  • #1,152
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:52am Feb 17, 2013 10:52am
I am still short biased.If it hits 85 I will continue to hammer shorts.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,153
  • Feb 18, 2013 6:10pm Feb 18, 2013 6:10pm
+60pips
placed limit sell at 8440 8480 8520 again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu.gif Size: 22 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,154
  • Feb 18, 2013 6:13pm Feb 18, 2013 6:13pm
damn stil hold multiple short at 853x ..... damnnnnnn

Quoting Davit
+60pips
placed limit sell at 8440 8480 8520 again
not euphoria follower
  • #1,155
  • Feb 18, 2013 6:14pm Feb 18, 2013 6:14pm
Quoting iqyu5an
damn stil hold multiple short at 853x ..... damnnnnnn
Yes lets spank this baby
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,156
  • Feb 18, 2013 6:16pm Feb 18, 2013 6:16pm
yea mate.. let's do it

maybe kiwi doesn't have driving license so they don't know how to drive wkwkkwkw


Quoting Davit
Yes lets spank this baby
not euphoria follower
  • #1,157
  • Feb 18, 2013 8:15pm Feb 18, 2013 8:15pm
entered shorts again.I am looking at least 618 retrace on h4 at 8386 zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu.gif Size: 26 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,158
  • Feb 19, 2013 2:35am Feb 19, 2013 2:35am
successfully got out, dont want to deal with it anytime soon, phew
  • #1,159
  • Feb 19, 2013 2:47pm Feb 19, 2013 2:47pm
Did anybody's positions also closed because of the spike in the FXCM's platform? My long positions are closed at 0.83712 although the lowest price of the spike was 0.84145! I think this is a technical problem with their liquidity, because other platform do not even have a spike.
  • #1,160
  • Feb 19, 2013 2:57pm Feb 19, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting Lanes110
Did anybody's positions also closed because of the spike in the FXCM's platform? My long positions are closed at 0.83712 although the lowest price of the spike was 0.84145! I think this is a technical problem with their liquidity, because other platform do not even have a spike.
sure did - I was long from ..84350 and got stopped out at ..84650
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