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  • #5,481
  • Feb 19, 2013 2:59am Feb 19, 2013 2:59am
Quoting Number 47
Stop it now! You just gave my sinuses a coffee enema.
Well lets just hope there's no more silly questions today.... For your sinuses sake!
  • #5,482
  • Feb 19, 2013 3:06am Feb 19, 2013 3:06am
Quoting Princeton
PROPOSITION #3 - One Should Pick the Settings that Suit Him
Wrong. EVERYBODY, regardless of its risk-aversion, should necessarily pick THE best combination of return versus risk. The rest is merely a question of money management. For every given instrument, time frame and data sample, there is one and only one set of parameters that is uniformly superior to all others. Not choosing it over the others has nothing to see with risk aversion or personal liking, but rather with flawed logic.
Very insightful. But I'd stress the importance of data sample. Retail brokers have different data feeds (and spreads), so we are back to square one when migrating our SSBO settings from one to the other.
  • #5,483
  • Feb 19, 2013 3:14am Feb 19, 2013 3:14am
Quoting Belmont
Very insightful. But I'd stress the importance of data sample. Retail brokers have different data feeds (and spreads), so we are back to square one when migrating our SSBO settings from one to the other.


Actually Princeton's point here adds nothing and is not very insightful, except maybe for complete beginners who have no clue. When we say one should pick the best settings that suit him/her, well of course those settings should be at a setting that has appropriate R:R - of course everyone is a little different in the R:R they are willing to accept, hence it should be tailored individually.
  • #5,484
  • Feb 19, 2013 3:48am Feb 19, 2013 3:48am
cable has a cz goıng at the moment ıs anyone else watchıng thıs?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,485
  • Feb 19, 2013 4:05am Feb 19, 2013 4:05am
Quoting Princeton
Good day everyone,

I have been a regularreader of this thread for a while now. I do not trade optimized systems as arule. However, I have been interested in the fact that this modified volatilityexpansion strategy (which I can testify is a sound trading concept) may alsoreach some kind of long-term profitability using optimization. etc....

Princeton

I'm not yet the whole way through your post but a couple of things spring to mind thus far

1. As my mate reminds me every now and again 'measure twice, cut once' (he owns a construction firm so the saying has nowt to do with FX) where does it say anywhere in the thread that a 'taller' CZ is more desireable? I think if you 'measure' a second time you will see that it's 'tighter' cz's we're looking for not taller ones. This I think will render the yellow box irrelevant.

2. I think you need to replace the spacebar on your keyboard

3. Can we dispense with the Cambridge university textbook speak and have the simplified language version instead. I have enough trouble wading through many thousands of pages of such in my day job (many many many volumes of tax compliance manuals and finance/companies acts) and I dont want to have to face it in my spare time as well.
  • #5,486
  • Feb 19, 2013 4:26am Feb 19, 2013 4:26am
Quoting hxtrader
I'm not yet the whole way through your post but a couple of things spring to mind thus far


2. I think you need to replace the spacebar on your keyboard

3. Can we dispense with the Cambridge university textbook speak and have the simplified language version instead. I have enough trouble wading through many thousands of pages of such in my day job (many many many volumes of tax compliance manuals and finance/companies acts) and I dont want to have to face it in my spare time as well.

Hey Hxtrader,


I don't think criticisms like no.2 are helpful, it makes people who follow this system seem like they are sensitive to criticism so they respond in a nit picking way.

Even criticism no. 3 is not so good. It's great for people to analyse this system in an indepth and critical way. But as fxhard said, Princeton shows the difference between book smart and street smart.

I think his observations were useful, it shows how a good system can be misinterpreted and overcomplicated. Princeton's comments for me just reinforced how everyone is overemphasising the settings on the indi, looking for a one size fits all model, instead of focusing on just finding good CZ's and trading off them in an a discretionary manner.


Cheers,

Ben
  • #5,487
  • Feb 19, 2013 4:46am Feb 19, 2013 4:46am
What I woke up to

EJ15M = +62.5
EA15M = +80.0

Oh and I also have 2 opened positions currently at +40 + each. Will post when they close.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EA15m.png Size: 50 KB
  • #5,488
  • Feb 19, 2013 6:09am Feb 19, 2013 6:09am
Quoting Princeton
Below I usedBloomberg to quickly perform spectrum optimization over 400 days for a giventime frame and a given pair, collecting at least 250 trades for each one of the750 iterations that I investigated. The parameter combinations explored fit theaverage range over which contributors to this thread have focused on over time.The table shows each Gross Pip count.

Attachment
...
Interesting, would you care to share how you made this sweet spot graph finder?
  • #5,489
  • Edited 6:35am Feb 19, 2013 6:13am | Edited 6:35am
Ok guys,

First try at attaching a pic......tried to resize, have no clue if it i was successful

This is my oil chart from this morning, just showing that ssbo definitely works across all instruments......am working on oil and cable exclusively....need to tweek entry in oil given its volatility.....probably enter after a one candle close.

Can anyone advise how to simply paste this chart vs attaching it? I tried but after copying i dont get a paste option?

Thanks

PS It worked, guess only have to attach

Edit Sorry for the bad cropping...didnt mean to take time line out, white line is date change from last night, will get it right next time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Oil CZ.png Size: 132 KB
  • #5,490
  • Feb 19, 2013 6:42am Feb 19, 2013 6:42am
Good morning everyone. I've made some edits to this post from yesterday...:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6455522#post6455522
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #5,491
  • Feb 19, 2013 6:53am Feb 19, 2013 6:53am
Quoting oztrader79
Hey Hxtrader,


I don't think criticisms like no.2 are helpful, it makes people who follow this system seem like they are sensitive to criticism so they respond in a nit picking way.

Even criticism no. 3 is not so good. It's great for people to analyse this system in an indepth and critical way. But as fxhard said, Princeton shows the difference between book smart and street smart.

I think his observations were useful, it shows how a good system can be misinterpreted and overcomplicated. Princeton's comments for me just reinforced how everyone...
Hi Ben, numbers 2 & 3 are just pet hates of mine, and yes i should have kept them to myself. I think it was posted out of frustration at trying to decipher the meaning. I don't allow 'management speak' in my business and I brought my work home with me.

Princeton does make some interesting points and another couple of read through's will probably clarify them further for me.
  • #5,492
  • Feb 19, 2013 8:03am Feb 19, 2013 8:03am
Quoting fexitrade
cable has a cz goıng at the moment ıs anyone else watchıng thıs?
I do not see that as a CZ.......box is too high for my taste and i see no real consolidation.......a tad later tho one is forming......


This one looks excellent to me.....need some more bars of course
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable CZ.png Size: 31 KB
  • #5,493
  • Feb 19, 2013 8:50am Feb 19, 2013 8:50am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,494
  • Feb 19, 2013 8:52am Feb 19, 2013 8:52am
Still not sure? OK then, how about just ditching the indis all together and go back to drawing the boxes by hand? SSBO is still a naked trading system at heart, and the custom indis are just a free added extra. What part of "free" are you guys not getting? If you can use it and trust it (like I do), then great! If not, then stop busting my balls. All of you could also get together and cough up 5K to help compensate Xux99 for all his time and trouble -- imagine that!

Lots of choices above to pick from -- pick one and go with it...[/quote]

I for one am so glad I dont have the metatrader platform, At first I thought having Ninjatrader would be a hindrance in trying to learn the system.

After 5000 posts I realize there really is no need for the indi. It seems as though the last 1000 posts or so were focused on folks adjusting and readjusting their indi and I feel like they are in fact wasting alot of time.

It would be nice if the more experienced folks would get back to commenting on their specific strategies as it relates to SSBO and not so much on what settings they need for their indi.

Of course if anyone would like to code the indi for me that would be fine as well...
  • #5,495
  • Feb 19, 2013 8:54am Feb 19, 2013 8:54am
Quoting oztrader79
Hey Hxtrader,


I don't think criticisms like no.2 are helpful, it makes people who follow this system seem like they are sensitive to criticism so they respond in a nit picking way.

Even criticism no. 3 is not so good. It's great for people to analyse this system in an indepth and critical way. But as fxhard said, Princeton shows the difference between book smart and street smart.

I think his observations were useful, it shows how a good system can be misinterpreted and overcomplicated. Princeton's comments for me just reinforced how everyone...


Hi All,

I can see both sides of the commentary here. My personal view is that curve-fitting (ie: over-optimising the settings) can leave you susceptible to normal changes in market conditions. Please understand that I'm in no way having a go at SSBO as it's a very close fit to my method of using inside bars and there is considerable overlap (hence my interest in this thread).

It's my understanding of curve-fitting that a symptom of this is the focus on winning percentage (ie: number (%) of winning trades vs losing trades). The understanding that I've arrived at personally is that in order to make a method/system/approach (call it what you will) profitable in the real world we need to make it more robust and able to cope with real conditions.

In order to do this I feel that the focus is more appropriately placed on the R:R and trying to maximise this and work out how to have a profitable approach with a winning % below 50%. If you can be profitable with a winning % less than 50% I would be inclined to consider that approach more likely to cope with day to day market conditions.

The difficulty with doing this is that in order to leave your trades open for longer you start realising that daily trend becomes more important. The next factor then becomes taking only long or only short breakouts of SSBO in the direction of a trend. This allows you to leave a trade open for longer but places an additional burden on you to figure out elements of a different approach (ie trend trading).

I'm not going to speak further about any approaches that are not SSBO as I don't want to upset anyone here, but I'm sure that given enough time the frustrations of results from live trading (or forward testing on demo) not matching up to the results from the settings that produce high winning percentages will give some of you pause for thought (hope this makes sense to you).

I personally enjoy this thread and hope to see it continue and produce many successful live traders.

Kind regards,
Steve.
  • #5,496
  • Feb 19, 2013 9:09am Feb 19, 2013 9:09am
Quoting RideWinners
Still not sure? OK then, how about just ditching the indis all together and go back to drawing the boxes by hand? SSBO is still a naked trading system at heart, and the custom indis are just a free added extra. What part of "free" are you guys not getting? If you can use it and trust it (like I do), then great! If not, then stop busting my balls. All of you could also get together and cough up 5K to help compensate Xux99 for all his time and trouble -- imagine that!

Lots of choices above to pick from -- pick one...
I for one am so glad I dont have the metatrader platform, At first I thought having Ninjatrader would be a hindrance in trying to learn the system.

After 5000 posts I realize there really is no need for the indi. It seems as though the last 1000 posts or so were focused on folks adjusting and readjusting their indi and I feel like they are in fact wasting alot of time.

It would be nice if the more experienced folks would get back to commenting on their specific strategies as it relates to SSBO and not so much on what settings they need for their indi.

Of course if anyone would like to code the indi for me that would be fine as well...[/quote]


I agree I thınk the ındı could be usefull but really mısses the mark of learnıng thıs system

By the way whos ın cable at the moment - I am!
  • #5,497
  • Feb 19, 2013 9:14am Feb 19, 2013 9:14am
and the chart of course.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: assdf.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #5,498
  • Feb 19, 2013 9:39am Feb 19, 2013 9:39am
Quoting fexitrade
and the chart of course.....
I think you need to go back to posts 1-10, my friend.
  • #5,499
  • Edited 9:50am Feb 19, 2013 9:39am | Edited 9:50am
Quoting fexitrade
and the chart of course.....
I understand of course that some folks require the indi if they arent able to be around the computer.....just too much info for me right now..

Saw that cable if you see my chart from earlier, hope you were able to get in on it....

My buddy uses breakouts to trade the mini-russell...........He had his chart on a range...I suggested he switch to a 15M and he was amazed! He caught this beauty for 60 pips or so...a quick $600......SSBO truly is an effective tool for many markets.....

Thanks again to Forexhard!

PS I agree with Jay that your chart doesnt look like a very good CZ by the way,even my earlier chart, where my potential CZ starts much later than your example, shows an early break which continued and negated my potential CZ

Here is the Russell chart.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,500
  • Feb 19, 2013 10:12am Feb 19, 2013 10:12am
Quoting steveukrm
In order to do this I feel that the focus is more appropriately placed on the R:R and trying to maximise this and work out how to have a profitable approach with a winning % below 50%. If you can be profitable with a winning % less than 50% I would be inclined to consider that approach more likely to cope with day to day market conditions.

The difficulty with doing this is that in order to leave your trades open for longer you start realising that daily trend becomes more important. The next factor then becomes taking only long or only short...

I agree with the first paragraph, but this ultimately comes down to personal preference. Some people are satisfied with 1:1 and even a bit less, specially if they intend to use MGale further down the road or even simply base on recovery trades. I'm now forward testing, as I've mentioned a few times in the last couple of page, a more R:R based approach focusing solely on the breakout trade.

I'm not too fond about the second paragraph; FXH showed us a system that we as a community proved works. It's not just his sayings, there's tons of sucessful live examples throughout the thread. None of these trades used any trend following aspect. I'm sure some systems work using trend analysis among other things; after all, all roads lead to Rome. FXH showed us a path, and it works.

Here's a recent post I made a few weeks ago specifically talking about trend systems. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6413553#post6413553
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