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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #781
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:52pm Feb 17, 2013 10:52pm
Quoting stevexyg
As you say hanover cherry picked but it does show what is theoretically possible. Crucially you've not mentioned an exit strategy, just an exit on the best price as observed with hindsight! If only. So to target 8:1 on every trade might not work in the long run. You may only hit target 1 out of 12 trades. But combine the entry criteria with an exit based also on candle patterns or a pullback to an ma/channel line/S/R and you might have a goer.
Steve,

My point is this: no matter what exit point is arbitrarily chosen, S/R based trades invariably deliver better RR than the price-action-bar method that I used in my example. The 8:1 vs 1:1 applies to that example only; obviously each individual scenario will be different.

I'm not discussing a specific strategy here. Should I choose to do so, I'll start my own thread.

David
  • #782
  • Feb 18, 2013 1:08am Feb 18, 2013 1:08am
Quoting Seneca pilot
People often speak of confirmation as if it somehow reduces risk in trading. It is actually the opposite. I am a touch trader. Once I place a level on a chart I will trade it if it is the first level hit for the day. This reduces my risk to the lowest level possible. I can have a much smaller stop than the trader who waits for "confirmation". The toughest task for most when learning to trade is to be accepting of losses. Waiting for confirmation is just another way for our subconcious mind to attempt to protect us from a losing trade. I have said...
Agreed that the "touch" on a price level can reduce the risks, the big IF here is the confidence a person has with their price levels.
For you are already confident with your price levels as been good support/resistance levels, that helps to be a "touch" trader on those levels.

As you are a "touch" trader on Entries, why do you not apply the same logic for your Exits; and "touch" your Exits on the opposite price levels ??
  • #783
  • Feb 18, 2013 1:58am Feb 18, 2013 1:58am
Quoting foxybunny
Agreed that the "touch" on a price level can reduce the risks, the big IF here is the confidence a person has with their price levels.
For you are already confident with your price levels as been good support/resistance levels, that helps to be a "touch" trader on those levels.

As you are a "touch" trader on Entries, why do you not apply the same logic for your Exits; and "touch" your Exits on the opposite price levels ??
I often do.
  • #784
  • Feb 18, 2013 2:25am Feb 18, 2013 2:25am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I often do.

You often do?

Based on your previous posts it seem you mentioned you take Earlier Exits rather than waiting for price levels to exit.

Good if you also exit on touch of price level.
  • #785
  • Feb 18, 2013 3:03am Feb 18, 2013 3:03am
Quoting Seneca pilot
First truth.


The trader must learn to take losses.

If you as a trader are unwilling to take a loss you will eventually take the mother of all losses. If the trader is unwilling to take a loss he or she will be forever closing trades with tiny gains that will never overcome their losses.

This was my hardest lesson. I consider myself a pretty smart person but this one was EXTREMELY hard for me. The natural tendency for me was to move the stop to breakeven as soon as the trade was into a decent profit. Of course the market will often...
I've only just found this thread, so have only read this first page. I wanted to say however, before i post anything else, that I couldn't agree more with this first truth, and you are absolutely right to place it at the head of the thread. For me, it has also been my biggest bogey, the one area I have constantly struggled with, and one that still sees me missing many good trading opportunities, though I have improved of late. I have been trading for four years, and now trade full time, but this was the one area that has held me back the most. My cure has been to convince myself that I was losing far more with this fear of loss than than I would ever gain, but this also took time. If anyone is interested to know how one does this, well, I can only say that it must come from somewhere, it doesn't just happen, and results from a changed mindset, which then has to become habit, so that you no longer think of losing when about to place a trade, you just do it, automatically, rather like the changing of gears in your car. For me, changing my approach to trading, and actually to life in general, was paramount in importance, and having read books on trading and listened to thought power cds, I found what helped me most was reading books written by and about WW2 fighter pilots, the most successful of which, i discovered, showed exactly those same character traits and thought processes that are needed if one is ever going to really succeed as a trader. This is why I have placed a pilot's book in my profile as my favourite trading book, because it did more to help me than all the books on trading put together.

I shall be viewing this excellent looking thread regularly from now on, and shall endeavor to post fro time to time.
  • #786
  • Feb 18, 2013 4:13am Feb 18, 2013 4:13am
Quoting hanover
Steve,

My point is this: no matter what exit point is arbitrarily chosen, S/R based trades invariably deliver better RR than the price-action-bar method that I used in my example. The 8:1 vs 1:1 applies to that example only; obviously each individual scenario will be different.

I'm not discussing a specific strategy here. Should I choose to do so, I'll start my own thread.

David
Hi David,

sorry for any confusion I was not criticising your post in any way just trying to elaborate on the implications of your example. Trading is not just about entries so I think you need to judge entry systems in combination with their exit strategies to get a fair comparison.
Having the better entry means nothing if you hold the trade too long for example. Ill say again - better R:R means nothing without a good exit strategy.

I would also say you can't just say s/r entries are better than candle pattern, it depends on the validity of the s/r. Your example saw a good bounce but price may not have cleared the top of the spike candle and then proceeded further south meaning a stop out for the touch trader but no trade and no loss for the candle pattern trader waiting for his confirmation. if you took s/r trades like this on a 5m chart on a strongly trending day you would get looser after looser.
  • #787
  • Feb 18, 2013 4:22am Feb 18, 2013 4:22am
Quoting tubguy
Thanks for the apology. Although it was not necessary. I seriously doubt that I have any wisdom that you lack.

Just enjoying the thread and increasing my wisdom. Look forward to talking with you.
Thanks again Tubguy.
  • #788
  • Feb 18, 2013 4:25am Feb 18, 2013 4:25am
Quoting kokopelli
On top of...
Good memory gene
Asshole gene
Hypocrite gene

You forgot to mention...
Holier than thou (condescending) gene - Napoleonic Complex-ed much???
Like to listen to own voice gene

Love,

K

PS. The writing is long-winded but nonetheless entertaining (however, not necessarily beneficial) to read. My compliments to your phrasage skills.
Hi K,

You are right about those things. I am very sorry.
  • #789
  • Feb 18, 2013 4:31am Feb 18, 2013 4:31am
Quoting stevexyg
sorry for any confusion I was not criticising your post in any way just trying to elaborate on the implications of your example.......
No problem. Everybody sees different things on the same chart; after all, one trader buys while another sells. Let's just agree to differ.
  • #790
  • Feb 18, 2013 7:51am Feb 18, 2013 7:51am
Quoting foxybunny
You often do?

Based on your previous posts it seem you mentioned you take Earlier Exits rather than waiting for price levels to exit.

Good if you also exit on touch of price level.
I do want to hold for larger gains. Typically I take profit at 2/1-3/1 RR or at the next level. I would say that maybe a third of the exits I have shown here have been at a level the rest at a RR that I like. I have a rather large history to show me that in the long run I am probably better off to take the exits I do. The markets have been good and trending lately but a more typical market climate would not be so kind to holding for bigger moves. Remember I am trading intraday, I do not want to hold a position through the rollover. Interest can hurt me with my position sizes. My struggle of late has been trying to get a little more out of the intraday trades. An example would be today. You can see from the charts below my entries are good and I am relatively confident that these trades would have reached last weeks close by end of day. Life gets in the way though. I have to run errands for the new house, one of my sons has a doctor appointment, and as this is my income I don't like to leave the positions, I prefer to manage them so I closed for a threeish percent gain.
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  • #791
  • Feb 18, 2013 7:54am Feb 18, 2013 7:54am
As a side note GJ had a really small range today and EU made a nice daily open trade so the yen dominance may be lessening. Something to keep an eye on because I want to be back to trading the dollar pairs when they reasssert themselves.
  • #792
  • Feb 18, 2013 8:00am Feb 18, 2013 8:00am
Hi scotty haven't seen you for a while. Are you taking flying lessons yet?
  • #793
  • Feb 18, 2013 8:08am Feb 18, 2013 8:08am
What do we do with weekend trading with respect to daily highs and lows?

For my trading I take weekend trades as an extension of Friday. For me its like Friday never stopped and the weekend trading continues into midnight Sunday night. If the weekend trading extends above or below Friday's trade then those are the boundarys I use for the daily high and low trades. If the weekend trading is all contained inside the Friday range then obviously I use the Friday highs and lows for the Monday trade. Right or wrong this is how I do it.
  • #794
  • Feb 18, 2013 8:09am Feb 18, 2013 8:09am
See you guys later got to go.
  • #795
  • Feb 18, 2013 8:14am Feb 18, 2013 8:14am
Quoting Seneca pilot
What do we do with weekend trading with respect to daily highs and lows?

For my trading I take weekend trades as an extension of Friday. For me its like Friday never stopped and the weekend trading continues into midnight Sunday night. If the weekend trading extends above or below Friday's trade then those are the boundarys I use for the daily high and low trades. If the weekend trading is all contained inside the Friday range then obviously I use the Friday highs and lows for the Monday trade. Right or wrong this is how I do it.
Makes perfect sense. I wasn't seeing it that way. I would take the daily highs and lows to be those of Friday.
  • #796
  • Feb 18, 2013 8:15am Feb 18, 2013 8:15am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Hi scotty haven't seen you for a while. Are you taking flying lessons yet?
Hey Seneca! No, not taking flying lessons yet. I've got a couple of friends who are certified instructors, so I'm all set when I finally decide to take the plunge. Have you been out flying recently?
  • #797
  • Edited 12:31pm Feb 18, 2013 9:00am | Edited 12:31pm
Quoting scottymoll
Hey Seneca! No, not taking flying lessons yet. I've got a couple of friends who are certified instructors, so I'm all set when I finally decide to take the plunge. Have you been out flying recently?
Unfortunately not I have been so busy lately that I can't afford time for any recreation.
  • #798
  • Feb 18, 2013 9:43am Feb 18, 2013 9:43am
Bank holiday in the US, if you are not done trading you can be fairly sure price is done moving.
  • #799
  • Feb 18, 2013 11:34am Feb 18, 2013 11:34am
Yes, very slow due to US bank holiday.
Quite happy with my small win of 1.0R considering the fact that I do not trade fulltime (yet).
  • #800
  • Feb 18, 2013 12:33pm Feb 18, 2013 12:33pm
Quoting Olarion1975
Yes, very slow due to US bank holiday.
Quite happy with my small win of 1.0R considering the fact that I do not trade fulltime (yet).
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