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  • #341
  • Feb 15, 2013 12:13pm Feb 15, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting Geppy
Well, so far so good... however, it's far too early to determine if it is an excellent trade yet. I won't know until sometime next week.

I'm no longer in front of my charts, but I'd be curious to see the fib retracement levels (on a 4h chart) of this most recent move down. Anyone wanna post that for me?
The big green H4 bar closed at 50% almost exactly.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #342
  • Feb 15, 2013 12:56pm Feb 15, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting whatever007
The big green H4 bar closed at 50% almost exactly.
Ahhh... good enough. Thanks, my man!
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  • #343
  • Feb 15, 2013 12:58pm Feb 15, 2013 12:58pm
Also, I want you guys to look back almost exactly a month ago (I'm looking at the charts on my phone).

We saw 3 days of falling prices from Jan 14-16th then a big green day. After that there were 4 consecutive days of falling prices again before we went back up, consolidated for a few days, and finally made new highs.

I would not be surprised to see a similar situation play out next week.
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  • #344
  • Feb 15, 2013 1:18pm Feb 15, 2013 1:18pm
My take is a bit different:

G7 and G20 have fundamentally impacted the trend - this week. For the G7, it had a positive impact in terms of going long when there was no critisicm of the BoJ's monetary policy. When it was rumored that there might be, we saw the pull-back. When there wasn't it resumed.

Fastforward to the G20. On the rumor that the BoJ was going to be the target of negative criticism, prices fell. This was seen in the Yen on all pairs.

When an early press release was given stating to the contrary, we see today's spike in the original direction of the trend. Why? Because nothing will be changing. The Yen will continue to be eased. The volatility this week was due to the G7 and G20, but the larger trend will continue.

My take. Long next week, resuming trend. 148 by Tuesday, NY Session.
  • #345
  • Feb 15, 2013 1:32pm Feb 15, 2013 1:32pm
Quoting tourderob
My take is a bit different:

G7 and G20 have fundamentally impacted the trend - this week. For the G7, it had a positive impact in terms of going long when there was no critisicm of the BoJ's monetary policy. When it was rumored that there might be, we saw the pull-back. When there wasn't it resumed.

Fastforward to the G20. On the rumor that the BoJ was going to be the target of negative criticism, prices fell. This was seen in the Yen on all pairs.

When an early press release was given stating to the contrary, we see today's spike in...
I agree that "nothing has changed", but all trends need pullbacks and consolidation. The truth is, we really haven't seen a healthy one.

You did a good job of outlining the news related moves, but you didn't mention what happened when there was blatant support of what Japan is doing. The other day (I forget who), but someone backed up Japan saying that the US supports what they are doing (or at least have no beef with them), that's when we saw the big, quick, late-day rally that took us nearly over 148.00

What happened after that? The next 12 hours saw us spew all those gains back and head lower.

My point is, even with support for devaluing the Yen this week, we weren't able to rally to new highs. That's a huge red flag in my mind.

I agree, the main trend is intact, Japan will most likely continue devaluing, and we'll see USD/JPY and the crosses appreciate. However, there are simply too many people that are long right now. There needs to be a better distribution and I'm not convinced this latest pullback was deep enough to equalize things.

Time will tell, and that time should come next week

I appreciate the post and point of view!
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  • #346
  • Feb 15, 2013 1:40pm Feb 15, 2013 1:40pm
Quoting Geppy
I agree that "nothing has changed", but all trends need pullbacks and consolidation. The truth is, we really haven't seen a healthy one.

My point is, even with support for devaluing the Yen this week, we weren't able to rally to new highs. That's a huge red flag in my mind.

Time will tell, and that time should come next week

I appreciate the post and point of view!
Actually, the understanding and reason for the decline this week was due to the understanding that G7 and the G20 were going to come out critically regarding the Yen's weakness. During these times the pull backs have corresponded.

When the contrary happened, the large rebound north happened.

  • #347
  • Feb 15, 2013 1:41pm Feb 15, 2013 1:41pm
I agree that a pullback is coming but the big question that I think that all traders always want to know is --- when?

So often we think that a correction is coming only to see the big money come in and cause massive moves.

Let's be honest most technical analysis is totally subjective --- a trader can say the glass is half full or half empty with the same technical tools.

I still remember when the BoJ announced that they would make unlimited asset purchases and then JPY pairs fell hard only to surge back up when almost nobody expected them to.

It seems like Mr. Market likes to do things when nobody expects it ---

I would not be surprised either if we saw a huge rally next week come out of nowhere.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #348
  • Feb 15, 2013 1:46pm Feb 15, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting tourderob
Actually, the understanding and reason for the decline this week was due to the understanding that G7 and the G20 were going to come out critically regarding the Yen's weakness. During these times the pull backs have corresponded.

When the contrary happened, the large rebound north happened.

I think the main point Geppy is making is that even with the rumor being debunked ALL JPY cros pairs failed to make new highs except for I think NZD/JPY, however, even N/J is back down to where it was the entire week.

Price Action is telling me that the Sellers are currently over powering the buyers. Just look at this week's and last week's candle for GBP/JPY... When no one is left to buy price profits will be taken and price will drop in order to attract new buyers hence a "healthy" correction for ALL JPY pairs.

The above is just my opinion...(except for the price action on weekly candles)
  • #349
  • Feb 15, 2013 2:16pm Feb 15, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting tourderob
Actually, the understanding and reason for the decline this week was due to the understanding that G7 and the G20 were going to come out critically regarding the Yen's weakness. During these times the pull backs have corresponded.

When the contrary happened, the large rebound north happened.

But we failed miserably (twice now) to break 148...
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  • #350
  • Feb 15, 2013 2:21pm Feb 15, 2013 2:21pm
Quoting Geppy
But we failed miserably (twice now) to break 148...

Absolutely cannot be disputed...

for now.
  • #351
  • Feb 15, 2013 2:23pm Feb 15, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting tourderob
Absolutely cannot be disputed...

for now.
lol. indeed.

and trust me, I'd love to see this trend continue. I just haven't seen any evidence that's happening yet.
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  • #352
  • Feb 15, 2013 2:28pm Feb 15, 2013 2:28pm
Yep. Agreed that we should always see a healthy pullback if its supposed to be a healthy run up. I always thought that profit taking before the Jap elections would sound more like a feasible choice.
  • #353
  • Feb 15, 2013 3:17pm Feb 15, 2013 3:17pm
Seeing as 80% of all trades involve the USD I have been looking at the USDJPY for some clarity.

The Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts show absolutely no signs of any kind of bearish divergence and after what happened this morning a buy signal popped up on my 4H charts around 9AM.

I don't see anything bearish here, I guess we will see next week.

I am long GBPJPY at 144.87
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade at your own risk.
  • #354
  • Feb 15, 2013 3:32pm Feb 15, 2013 3:32pm
Quoting Fx3423454
Seeing as 80% of all trades involve the USD I have been looking at the USDJPY for some clarity.

The Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts show absolutely no signs of any kind of bearish divergence and after what happened this morning a buy signal popped up on my 4H charts around 9AM.

I don't see anything bearish here, I guess we will see next week.

I am long GBPJPY at 144.87

That makes two of us.
  • #355
  • Feb 15, 2013 3:44pm Feb 15, 2013 3:44pm
Also interesting if you guys haven't seen this: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/0...ous-feb-sales/
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  • #356
  • Feb 15, 2013 4:39pm Feb 15, 2013 4:39pm
This consolidation does look different than others we have had on the daily chart.

Either way it goes, it was a good run up and if it goes south I will be riding that wave too.

Cowabunga Dudes!
Trade at your own risk.
  • #357
  • Feb 15, 2013 4:44pm Feb 15, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting Geppy
Also interesting if you guys haven't seen this: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/0...ous-feb-sales/
Geppy,

I'm thinking that if this has a negative impact on US stocks it could encourage a more "risk-off" environment sending majors down against the USD and USD down against the JPY.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, trying to figure out the implications of this type of news...
  • #358
  • Feb 15, 2013 4:51pm Feb 15, 2013 4:51pm
JPY surges when stock markets crash, no need to look any further than the financial crisis of 2008.

I think shorting AUDJPY is probably one of the best bets during a panic.
But, JPY benefits across the board whenever there is panic in the air.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #359
  • Feb 15, 2013 4:55pm Feb 15, 2013 4:55pm
Quoting Fx3423454
JPY surges when stock markets crash, no need to look any further than the financial crisis of 2008.

I think shorting AUDJPY is probably one of the best bets during a panic.
But, JPY benefits across the board whenever there is panic in the air.
100% agree!

When looking at the 2008 charts AUD/JPY was the biggest loser out of any pair traded...

AUD/JPY is the BEST risk-on / risk-off pair to trade in my opinion.
  • #360
  • Feb 15, 2013 5:02pm Feb 15, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting Fx3423454
JPY surges when stock markets crash, no need to look any further than the financial crisis of 2008.

I think shorting AUDJPY is probably one of the best bets during a panic.
But, JPY benefits across the board whenever there is panic in the air.
Yep! ForexLive hinted at this, but didn't quite explain it with this statement:

"An unexpected Q1 slowdown in the US consumer would hurt CAD and could take the wind out of trades that benefit from less QE, like USD/JPY longs and gold shorts."
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