Flag trading the trend

Anyone still trading this strategy?

Have adapted it a little, but it requires some user discretion...

In my limited testing using EU or EJ on M5, and with a 1:1 target, the win rate was 70%+. You have to be experienced enough to know when there is a trend worthy of consideration, and then to trade only in the direction of the trend. Divergence, while he should be thanked for introducing this strategy, did not discuss an objective means of trend identification. This has been the thread's weakness from day 1.

Totally agree, the outcome of all of this for me was to concentrate on Elliott Wave as the discretion required for a trade led to a requirement to know the likely phase you were in. (flags into 5th waves would often fail, as would triggers into irregular B waves). The problem being, once you go down that road, its easier to trade the low of the abc pullback, instead of waiting for the flag to trigger...

I use flag trading now to add a further trade, with a valid trigger, kind of as a confirmation indicator...

Keeping it simple and using an MA, e.g. the 20ema, which is my favorite due to it being sensitive but not too sensitive, should improve anyone's success with this strategy. Price > 20ema, longs only (reverse for shorts).

Here's my point. Last night i posted a possible flag set-up. I realised that when used on larger timescales, TP is R:R 1:1 but always reacts shortly after being met, so its obviously used by the big boys.

The chart showing possible flag;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...1h04-03-13.png

but by working out the move up was corrective, its possible to pick the very turn, earlier a rejection of the top of a baseline channel;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...1h05-03-13.png

and so we also have wave C being exactly 123.6% of wave A, thus we can call the start of the move down;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...m05-03-13a.png

all this before any likelihood of a SUB. Its scaleable so you can drop to the 1min to replicate this kind of thing...

Cableguy

The charts look good. Not to say this is not an effective approach -- if it is profitable for you, then it is effective -- yet it introduces a level of complexity that might turn off less-experienced traders. This is why I suggested the MA idea. (BTW, I have used Elliott Wave to scalp M1 and it was rather effective, so this is not an indictment of wave theory.)

My best

California

Anyone still trading this strategy? I find it quite profitable but use the 15 TF and use the break of a previous low/high to confirm flag break. Just scalped 10 pips off the UJ

California, I use 20,40 ema channel. Price tends to take nice turn around 40 ema.

Snail, 40 ema is too insensitive for me. I am interested in "strong trends," which are much more likely to see a pullback resolve itself within trend continuation. A pullback to 40 ema is not a strong trend, imo. Ideally price should be constrained by 9 ema or between 9 ema/20 ema.

However, this is merely what works for me, and the fact that you have found something that works for you is all that counts. To each his own, said the lady as she kissed the cow.

very impressive way of trading flags, subscribing it

guys can we please stick with simple idea of flag trading? I think this is was the original idea of OP.

Thanks Cali !

Interesting method. Too bad Divergence is no longer contributing. Probably making a lot of money.

If you choose a trend descriptor that is objective, and go back and do some back testing, you should see the strategy has a positive expectancy.

YOU WILL FIND ON PAGE 319 POST 4780 THE RULES FOR TRADING !!!!!


where is this page and this post with rules ?

The rules for the system are here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post4748852

this method yeilds 2 -3 trades per day in us session therefore i will look to get 2 a day if i would have done this over the last 2 weeks 19 winning trades in a row with that said here are the entires rules: us session 830 - 1130 pair is eurusd use this 2 indicators only 10 sma apllied to median 2 h/l and a cci set to 8 with levels at 50 and - 50. we look at 15 minute chart to determine which direction market is in and this is dont by seeing if its making highers or lower lows i will show you charts after i explain a few things. Once you have determined you are going either long or short we go to 1 minute chart not 5 not 3 but 1 minute chart. If on 1 minute chart price is trending up and we are looking to go long wait for pullback which is when the cci is below 50 in uptrend or above 50 in downtrend then when candle pops up and over 10sma and cci crosses back over 50 that is first qualification for setup bar to trade. Our target and stoploss are the same 15 pips. now if going and say the high of the setup bar is 1.4508 and we enter 1 pip above high plus 1 for spread that means an entry of 1.4510 our stop is at 1.4495 the only time this becomes a valid trade to enter is if stop loss is at the low of last pullback swing or lower if that is the case then its ok to put on trade. Once in trade when price gets to +10 we move stop to breakeven and watch the price action to make sure we get to or close to target well thats all the rules i will now give some charts for more explaination i hope you get this because it will make you a lot of money if not good luck searching the forum for the magic bullit---FROM post 4778

Use to love this thread and used it to develop my own 1 minute strategy from it. Not too different but I found with old system there were quite a few losers, however I increased my chances of winning enormously by adding a 100lwma and only traded pairs were the 100lwma was sloping steeply so indicating a strong trend was in place. This increased my hit rate to about 70% plus I started to enter when the CCI signaled the opposite side after going overbought/sold. Basically going over the +/-100 levels.

A buy signal was when the CCI went under -100 then put in a shorter CCI candle ,that was my signal candle then I'd put my pending order 1 pip above it.

Very important to stick to the right time of day. I usually wait for the LO or NYO to pass and any major news releases then have a look for a strong sloping 100lwma wait for a pullback and jump on board. Basically catching the London/New York breakout trade.

I also have my own indicator my TTindy which shows me the top 8 trending pairs at any one time and I only trade the top 3 pairs from it so ensuring that I'm only trading strong trending pairs.

Heres a chart below showing the exact sort of trades I'm after just after London Open and the GBPAUD was top of my TTindy at the time...



Just thought I'd share my development of this "flag trading the Trend" thread. I'm very grateful to Divergence for sharing his method so if I can help any others I will. Have my own thread "trading is as simple as ABCD" if you want to know more about my strategy...

Thanks again Divergence you opened my eyes to a very simple way to trade..

Xlnt stuff, Clive. Thanks for sharing this with everyone and offering to help. This strategy is in the top three favorites of mine that I have ever come across on FF. Never traded it as I had other things I was using, but manually backtested it and, using a moving average such as 50 sma as a trend descriptor, found that it had positive expectancy. Thank you again and for Divergence for bringing the strategy to people's attention.