last one, GBPJPY hourly with trend line, looking for a possible entry point
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Hello Traders,
Just a follow up on the GBPJPY reversal trade that I talked about yesterday in my market commentary on the pair, has definitely climbed higher, clearing past the 141 and 141.95 aforementioned levels after showing signs of a bottoming formation that began with a pin bar.
Now the pair is threatening a host of levels, such as the channel top just north, along with the key swing high levels of 144.15 and 144.50 where I am guessing some sellers are parked.
If the intraday price action looks corrective heading into these levels, then I will consider a short in these upper levels, targeting 143 and 142. Any break above these key highs would be surprising heading into the weekend when liquidity should be leaving the market, so I'll take that as a sign of strength and wait for a break above 145 before looking to get long.
Good hunting.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Just a follow up on the GBPJPY reversal trade that I talked about yesterday in my market commentary on the pair, has definitely climbed higher, clearing past the 141 and 141.95 aforementioned levels after showing signs of a bottoming formation that began with a pin bar.
Now the pair is threatening a host of levels, such as the channel top just north, along with the key swing high levels of 144.15 and 144.50 where I am guessing some sellers are parked.
If the intraday price action looks corrective heading into these levels, then I will consider a short in these upper levels, targeting 143 and 142. Any break above these key highs would be surprising heading into the weekend when liquidity should be leaving the market, so I'll take that as a sign of strength and wait for a break above 145 before looking to get long.
Good hunting.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
I am looking at several things to start off the week as there are many good looking setups, but two I'd like to mention for today are the EURUSD and Gold
Looking at the chart below on the EU, the pair has broken out of the two week range on Friday, while maintaining the series of HL's (higher lows) and HH's (higher highs). the former range resistance becomes intraday support at 3400. If this holds, then a challenge towards 3500 would likely be on deck, but a failure back into the range suggests the medium term trend could be weakening.
As for Gold, the pair sold off more in the last 3 days then it gained in the last 7. I think the bears are still in control, and intraday price action along with the daily chart still suggests this. Although I suspect buyers will come in around 1654, I still see possible more downside, so will wait towards 1645 and 1635 before getting long. Until then, I'll look for intraday price action signals to get short.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
I am looking at several things to start off the week as there are many good looking setups, but two I'd like to mention for today are the EURUSD and Gold
Looking at the chart below on the EU, the pair has broken out of the two week range on Friday, while maintaining the series of HL's (higher lows) and HH's (higher highs). the former range resistance becomes intraday support at 3400. If this holds, then a challenge towards 3500 would likely be on deck, but a failure back into the range suggests the medium term trend could be weakening.
As for Gold, the pair sold off more in the last 3 days then it gained in the last 7. I think the bears are still in control, and intraday price action along with the daily chart still suggests this. Although I suspect buyers will come in around 1654, I still see possible more downside, so will wait towards 1645 and 1635 before getting long. Until then, I'll look for intraday price action signals to get short.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
I've been watching Gold today, which has shown some of its first real attempts to bottom, based on the intraday price action. It has formed an outside bar, and followed it up with a small pin bar (chart below).
I'm still not convinced, but if the key $1652 level holds, on another corrective pullback, I'll look to likely get long, targeting $1664. If this level fails, then we could see a deeper pullback towards $1645 or even $1625.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
I've been watching Gold today, which has shown some of its first real attempts to bottom, based on the intraday price action. It has formed an outside bar, and followed it up with a small pin bar (chart below).
I'm still not convinced, but if the key $1652 level holds, on another corrective pullback, I'll look to likely get long, targeting $1664. If this level fails, then we could see a deeper pullback towards $1645 or even $1625.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
Looking at the EURUSD on the daily chart, it has formed an inside bar breakout, which is a general with trend continuation signal. However the breakout is a little meek, which could just be from position paring ahead of the FOMC tomorrow (see chart below)
4hr Charts show a small flag pattern, but the fact that the breakout bar did not get a good clearing distance is to be noted.
1.3439 is intraday support for the last flag/ inside bar breakout, but should this fail, then bulls will really be tested at 1.3400.
If this holds, then a retest of today's highs is in order, but a failure to hold here suggests likely breakdown towards the major range support at 1.3250.
Good luck trading tomorrow as I'm expecting it to be a volatile day, but a good one for price action trading.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Looking at the EURUSD on the daily chart, it has formed an inside bar breakout, which is a general with trend continuation signal. However the breakout is a little meek, which could just be from position paring ahead of the FOMC tomorrow (see chart below)
4hr Charts show a small flag pattern, but the fact that the breakout bar did not get a good clearing distance is to be noted.
1.3439 is intraday support for the last flag/ inside bar breakout, but should this fail, then bulls will really be tested at 1.3400.
If this holds, then a retest of today's highs is in order, but a failure to hold here suggests likely breakdown towards the major range support at 1.3250.
Good luck trading tomorrow as I'm expecting it to be a volatile day, but a good one for price action trading.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
Today the S&P 500 started to show the first major cracks in the current bull run by creating a 2 Bar Reversal Pattern on the daily charts (see below)
A look into the 4hr chart shows the first counter-trend impulsive move since the 17th, which suggests any attempts to rally will be met with a LH (lower high).
I'll look to sell any corrective pullbacks either towards 1503 or 1510, targeting 1495 and 1487 minimally, with a potential break down to 1480, so watch for intraday price action signals on a failed rally.
Meanwhile, the EURUSD and EURJPY are still showing signs of strength, so buying on pullbacks is suggested.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Today the S&P 500 started to show the first major cracks in the current bull run by creating a 2 Bar Reversal Pattern on the daily charts (see below)
A look into the 4hr chart shows the first counter-trend impulsive move since the 17th, which suggests any attempts to rally will be met with a LH (lower high).
I'll look to sell any corrective pullbacks either towards 1503 or 1510, targeting 1495 and 1487 minimally, with a potential break down to 1480, so watch for intraday price action signals on a failed rally.
Meanwhile, the EURUSD and EURJPY are still showing signs of strength, so buying on pullbacks is suggested.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
Today the GBPJPY formed a double intraday breakout, first clearing the 144.27 level which held for the last 14 days, and then the major Jan. swing high at 144.75. Both of these levels offered intraday breakout pullback setups, so hopefully you were able to profit from them (chart below).
I'll look for major pullbacks towards the role reversal level at 144.75 for potential longs on corrective moves into the level. Should this hold, then I'll target 146 and 150 which are the major swing highs from May and Jan 2010.
NOTE: Tomorrow is the first NFP of 2013 so make sure to mitigate risk heading into the event.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Today the GBPJPY formed a double intraday breakout, first clearing the 144.27 level which held for the last 14 days, and then the major Jan. swing high at 144.75. Both of these levels offered intraday breakout pullback setups, so hopefully you were able to profit from them (chart below).
I'll look for major pullbacks towards the role reversal level at 144.75 for potential longs on corrective moves into the level. Should this hold, then I'll target 146 and 150 which are the major swing highs from May and Jan 2010.
NOTE: Tomorrow is the first NFP of 2013 so make sure to mitigate risk heading into the event.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
One of the pairs which has been showing some good intraday price action signals is the GBPJPY. There was a pin bar on the 4hr chart off the key role reversal level, which I talked about as a good support level for intraday longs in my weekly market commentary.
That level held, and has now bounced over +90 pips.
Short term the range dominates, so watch for plays on both sides. A break of the range to the downside, suggests a weakening of the trend, while an upside break should bring in fresh longs (chart below)
One of the pairs which has been showing some good intraday price action signals is the GBPJPY. There was a pin bar on the 4hr chart off the key role reversal level, which I talked about as a good support level for intraday longs in my weekly market commentary.
That level held, and has now bounced over +90 pips.
Short term the range dominates, so watch for plays on both sides. A break of the range to the downside, suggests a weakening of the trend, while an upside break should bring in fresh longs (chart below)
Hello Traders,
Quite an interesting day across the JPY pairs, and also precious metals. Gold just formed a bearish engulfing bar on the 4hr chart off the key resistance at $1685. Although it was engulfing a small pin bar, the selling on the day was far more impulsive than the buying, and this was after two pushes up, with the second one being quite strong (chart below).
The wicks on both sides communicates strong presence with bulls and the bears, but the wick on the topside is larger which = more selling pressure than buying short term. If it fades, and we form a HL (higher low), then this is showing the precious metal is underpinned and will likely retest $1685.
A break below $1666.50 intraday will check to the buyers at $1661.
Quite an interesting day across the JPY pairs, and also precious metals. Gold just formed a bearish engulfing bar on the 4hr chart off the key resistance at $1685. Although it was engulfing a small pin bar, the selling on the day was far more impulsive than the buying, and this was after two pushes up, with the second one being quite strong (chart below).
The wicks on both sides communicates strong presence with bulls and the bears, but the wick on the topside is larger which = more selling pressure than buying short term. If it fades, and we form a HL (higher low), then this is showing the precious metal is underpinned and will likely retest $1685.
A break below $1666.50 intraday will check to the buyers at $1661.
Hello Traders,
After a really choppy start to this month, the AUDUSD has finally taken out a key support level in 1.0357, which it broke through on an impulsive leg down. The pair found support and some buyers at the round number of 1.0300, but i'm not really convinced by the small back to back pin bars.
I'll look for a corrective pullback towards the role reversal level at 1.0357, along with a 20ema on the 4hr chart, to sell the pair, targeting 1.0300, 1.0236 and 1.0163 should the downside momentum pick up steam.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
After a really choppy start to this month, the AUDUSD has finally taken out a key support level in 1.0357, which it broke through on an impulsive leg down. The pair found support and some buyers at the round number of 1.0300, but i'm not really convinced by the small back to back pin bars.
I'll look for a corrective pullback towards the role reversal level at 1.0357, along with a 20ema on the 4hr chart, to sell the pair, targeting 1.0300, 1.0236 and 1.0163 should the downside momentum pick up steam.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
Post the ECB announcement, the Euro got bloodied up losing over 180 pips in a few hours. Since then, it is barely holding serve and support at 1.3380.
Post the aftermath of the losses, the pair has formed 3 inside bars back to back, or an 'iii pattern'. My bias now is south if it can clear the support level. Should this fail, then 1.3300 is up on deck. Any corrective pullbacks towards 1.3463 are also opportunities to sell on a rally.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Post the ECB announcement, the Euro got bloodied up losing over 180 pips in a few hours. Since then, it is barely holding serve and support at 1.3380.
Post the aftermath of the losses, the pair has formed 3 inside bars back to back, or an 'iii pattern'. My bias now is south if it can clear the support level. Should this fail, then 1.3300 is up on deck. Any corrective pullbacks towards 1.3463 are also opportunities to sell on a rally.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
Just watching Gold which seems to have gotten monkey hammered today. Hopefully you didn't try and impress your Girlfriend by buying them some gold :-ooo
The role reversal level at $1651 worked as a good level to get short. Also two touches off the 20ema and dynamic resistance have held the upside, suggesting the market is still looking to sell rallies. I'm suspecting physical buyers are liking these prices, and will scoop up the PM at these levels, but until we see a good base, selling weak rallies seems to be the play short term.
Watch $1625 for potential buyers and price action signals as that is the low for this year.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Just watching Gold which seems to have gotten monkey hammered today. Hopefully you didn't try and impress your Girlfriend by buying them some gold :-ooo
The role reversal level at $1651 worked as a good level to get short. Also two touches off the 20ema and dynamic resistance have held the upside, suggesting the market is still looking to sell rallies. I'm suspecting physical buyers are liking these prices, and will scoop up the PM at these levels, but until we see a good base, selling weak rallies seems to be the play short term.
Watch $1625 for potential buyers and price action signals as that is the low for this year.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
After a long trip and a new computer, I'm back to posting regularly.
Today I'm watching Gold amongst other things, but the PM got monkey-hammered today losing over $50 from top to bottom and broke a critical support at $1598. This was after an inverted pin bar + Inside Bar combo which was merely a pause in the already consistent selling.
Now the metal is barely holding onto the $1564 support. A break here targets $1550 and a dangerous support level at $1525 which is the 2012 yearly low. If this breaks, expect a ton of stops to get tripped and likely a $5-10 selloff in price in a matter of minutes.
I'll look for rotations back into $1598 that are corrective to sell it on a rally.
The only buy I'd consider would be after some stabilization around $1525 should it show weakness heading into the level.
After a long trip and a new computer, I'm back to posting regularly.
Today I'm watching Gold amongst other things, but the PM got monkey-hammered today losing over $50 from top to bottom and broke a critical support at $1598. This was after an inverted pin bar + Inside Bar combo which was merely a pause in the already consistent selling.
Now the metal is barely holding onto the $1564 support. A break here targets $1550 and a dangerous support level at $1525 which is the 2012 yearly low. If this breaks, expect a ton of stops to get tripped and likely a $5-10 selloff in price in a matter of minutes.
I'll look for rotations back into $1598 that are corrective to sell it on a rally.
The only buy I'd consider would be after some stabilization around $1525 should it show weakness heading into the level.
Hello Traders,
Quite an interesting day for trading with some really quality setups.
One that is interesting to me is the pin bar setup on the Aussie that formed on the daily. This pair launched higher in early Asian trading, but may offer a pullback into the pin bar range. The pin bar formed at the 1.0230 support forming a double bottom, so this bounce may have some legs.
Upside resistance is 1.0330 and 1.0350 which are the dynamic resistance and double top from the daily chart, so watch for corrective pullbacks into the level for possible buy signals. A failure to hold 1.0220 will setup a move towards 1.0160.
Quite an interesting day for trading with some really quality setups.
One that is interesting to me is the pin bar setup on the Aussie that formed on the daily. This pair launched higher in early Asian trading, but may offer a pullback into the pin bar range. The pin bar formed at the 1.0230 support forming a double bottom, so this bounce may have some legs.
Upside resistance is 1.0330 and 1.0350 which are the dynamic resistance and double top from the daily chart, so watch for corrective pullbacks into the level for possible buy signals. A failure to hold 1.0220 will setup a move towards 1.0160.