AUD/USD | Page 2879 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #57,561
  • Feb 12, 2013 8:18pm Feb 12, 2013 8:18pm
Why did hundreds of billions of dollars (or possibly even trillions) flood the Bond market? The fact is that institutional investors and governments rushed to the 'safety' of bonds at the outset of the crisis in 2008 and withdrew trillions of dollars from stock markets in a state of crowd mentality. When broken down, the markets do not work logically - they are driven by human emotion; that is, the desire to avoid losses and to minimize risk. Despite their attempts to appear otherwise, Governments and major institutional investors are no different to John Doe and the vast majority of retail investors.

At the outset of the crisis, fund managers and governments did what was safe - they ran for cover. And they did it en masse; hence the dramatic and powerful downturn as funds were pulled out of stocks. Logic would have said they should have stayed in stocks as the long term historical returns for stocks are significantly better than bonds (stocks have returned almost 6 per cent per year over the past 7 decades, adjusted for inflation). Bonds, on the other hand, offer nothing approaching that, but they do offer 'certainty'. However, there are signs now that fund managers are starting to think the crisis may soon be ending. So the big boys are now emerging from cover and are searching for the higher yields that stocks typically offer.

Those trillions of dollars that have been withdrawn from stock markets which are currently in bonds must return at some time. And crowd mentality (the natural state of markets that are run by human emotion) says that those trillions will be moved in the same direction - back in to stocks.

We also now know that a surge in demand for stocks suggests a higher demand for US dollars which is the currency used to pay for these assets.
  • #57,562
  • Feb 12, 2013 8:19pm Feb 12, 2013 8:19pm
Gold's Bull Run Has Hit A Long-Term Brick Wall


The whole of the 2000's as a decade, in fact, was characterized by paper asset inflation (not to mention hard asset inflation) and broad currency debasement, driven by easy monetary policy, aggressive feedback loops and exacerbating macro factors. This was a goldilocks environment for gold.

But how long do such goldilocks environments prevail? All good things come to an end… and most bad things too. Even as the long-term charts have gone from “unquestionable uptrend” to “question mark,” so too have the macro drivers for gold’s bull run become a giant unknown.

To put it another way: As traders who respect price, the charts alone are enough to make us wary of gold. But the fundamentals are a concern too because the conditions that supported gold’s rise may no longer exist.

Consider:

1) For most of the 2000?s, central banks (primarily the Fed) were openly accommodative. Now they are talking about withdrawal.

2) For most of the 2000?s, the U.S. “vendor finance” relationship with China and the Middle East was intact. That relationship could now be ending.

3) For most of the 2000?s — and actually the past few decades — U.S. interest rates have been falling (long bond bull market). That could now be ending.

4) Gold’s potential “climax run” in 2011 — reference a weekly gold chart — may have also coincided with a coordinated crescendo of global central bank intervention. If the global economy is truly recovering, this is almost certainly the case.



Bullish Gold and Bearish Long Bonds? Really?

Here is another funny thing: Many of those who are staunch long-term bulls on gold, are also anticipating a ferocious bear market in U.S. treasury bonds. They are rubbing their hands and waiting for the collapse of the long bond market, at which point U.S. interest rates will be forced to sharply rise.

I also like the long bond short trade (and have said as much repeatedly). That is some price action I can get behind! But can you really expect sharply rising interest rates and rising gold simultaneously? To borrow a British slang phrase, “not bloody likely.”
  • #57,563
  • Feb 12, 2013 8:21pm Feb 12, 2013 8:21pm
There is a simple reason that over long periods of time gold under performs a broad based basket of equities available in the stock market. The price of gold fluctuates with demand that is created by fear, and the perception of scarcity.

Like stocks, gold may be a good value at times, and not others. Is it really wise to invest in anything when it is at an all-time high, and driven by fear?

A review of history indicates that the price of gold fluctuates wildly and has not even kept up with inflation over the past 35 years.


Food for thought: Gold began trading truly freely in 1973, after post-Bretton Woods controls were removed. Since then, gold’s returned a cumulative 983% (annualized 6.8%), while global stocks returned 2,229% (9.1% annualized) and US stocks 3,552% (10.5% annualized).* Gold’s 2009 run was much hyped in the media, but even then it lagged stocks, returning 24.8% versus 30.0% for the year.

Besides lost opportunity costs, what’s even more dangerous for investors? Gold historically has been a short-term timing game. Much of gold’s long-term gains have come from very short boom periods. Since 1973, there have only been six major gold booms, each lasting from 4 to 22 months—or just 15% of the total time. Meaning gold’s done less than stellar the other 85% of the time.

In reality, gold is prone to short-term volatility just like stocks and boasts miserable returns over the long term—practically flat over the last 30 years, even including last year’s big gain.

What will happen to Gold as the Global economy starts to recover?

What will happen to Gold as the excess liquidity is pulled in by the Central Banks?

Always remember: the price of stocks — via well-run companies which sell quality products that people need and desire — increase in sustainable ways over time. The price of gold fluctuates through extreme boom and bust periods that are created by either the absence or presence of fear and perceptions of financial and/or political uncertainty.

To say it differently: eventually we humans figure out how to clean up our own collective shit… which will include that stench and stupidity coming out of Washington and other political power cities throughout the world.

I guess whether you should be buying, holding or selling physical gold today will depend on your personal circumstances, which include your net worth and how much of it is or isn’t already backed by value-increasing and/or inflation-protecting assets; your level of suspicion against our fiat monetary system and whether it can or will be sustainable during your and your children’s life; and your level of fear for a financial doomsday scenario.

“You can’t value a non-earning asset, even though you can pretend to. Gold’s valuation takes the form of a fraction: 1/n, where ‘n’ is the world’s confidence in paper currencies and the mandarins who manipulate them.” He goes on to say that, “Regrettably, ‘n’ is not quantifiable.”

In a way, that is the essential mystery of gold, isn’t it. There is no dependable metric for gold’s valuation comparable to a P/E ratio for a company’s stock or the “real” yield on a sovereign bond.

The total value of investment gold is tiny compared with traditional asset classes, and gold’s physical supply tends not to respond very much to price changes the way other commodities do.

So, what we have is an asset whose price can change rather dramatically in response to shifts in “currency confidence” which is impossible to quantify.
  • #57,564
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:04am Feb 13, 2013 7:04am
Quoting GnarlyPips
To me, the Fed is poised to raise rates later this year or next year, while the RBA has been lowering rates. The rate they are at right now has held up in the past, but even if the RBA holds rates, the Fed raising rates will change things.
Fed rising rates? You kidding right? I can insure you rates will be 0% for as far as I can see, till 2015 at least. Fed buying 80% of all Treasury papers.
There is no Market for this paper crap, FED is the Market. And you want to tell me that FED will actually rise Rates on themselves?
Even 0.5% move in rates will add billions/year to the deficit. Besides, US economy good only around Wall Street where Bernank
dropping trillions from his helicopter. US still and will be in recession or on the Edge 1% GDP growth most of which attributes to
money printing. No jobs, No growth, just pure reckless money printing. NO rates won't be raised anytime soon. Cause that's why
they are printing money, cause ZERO% interest rate not low enough for them, so they are artificially creating negative rates, by printing
money (buying treasuries)
Capisce?
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #57,565
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:11am Feb 13, 2013 7:11am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Fed rising rates? You kidding right? I can insure you rates will be 0% for as far as I can see, till 2015 at least. Fed buying 80% of all Treasury papers.
There is no Market for this paper crap, FED is the Market. And you want to tell me that FED will actually rise Rates on themselves?
Even 0.5% move in rates will add billions/year to the deficit. Besides, US economy good only around Wall Street where Bernank
dropping trillions from his helicopter. US still and will be in recession or on the Edge 1% GDP growth most of which attributes to
money...
LOL You show your lack of knowledge with every post you make...



You probably did not read any of the posts that I made above before typing this nonsense did you?
  • #57,566
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:15am Feb 13, 2013 7:15am
Quoting 100PipsADay

What will happen to Gold as the Global economy starts to recover?
.
You going to see collapse of this phony Economy and crooked financial system, before anything recovers.

Or you think Gazillion $$$ of world-wide Debt will just mysteriously disappears or be paid off? By whom? By aliens?

2008 will look like walking in the park.. Dude you watching too much CNBC.

That's you buddies there, talking heads from CNBC just before Collapse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ak41rYp1lWQ

Bob Pisani: "People who keep talking about this real estate bubble don't understand... there are 3 things that bring down real estate markets: 1) the economy falls apart, 2) liquidity is withdrawn, and 3) supply overwhelming market - NONE of that has happened."

Yeah, yeah, just before bubble burst.. Smoke and mirrors..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #57,567
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:16am Feb 13, 2013 7:16am
Quoting 100PipsADay
LOL You show your lack of knowledge with every post you make...



You probably did not read any of the posts that I made above before typing this nonsense did you?

I don't have to read your posts, I have clowns from CNBC to watch for that matter all day long.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #57,568
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:18am Feb 13, 2013 7:18am
Quoting SkyzerFX
I don't have to read your posts, I have clowns from CNBC to watch all day long.
You should probably stick to playing video games "SkyzerFx" and leave the financial markets to professionals who don't "flip a coin" before making a buy / sell decision.

You set any new high scores on Call of Duty today? LOL
  • #57,569
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:33am Feb 13, 2013 7:33am
Attached Image
  • #57,570
  • Edited 8:41am Feb 13, 2013 8:17am | Edited 8:41am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Gold above $1,000 can't really be used to rationalize anything other than speculation. Assuming, you don't already have some stored away as insurance. That is really the correct purpose. Just know that it is a hedge against inflation, but it won't pay a premium to it, it will track inflation, but won't pay a premium over it. People actually think Gold is an investment, it actually is NOT an investment. You don't hedge stocks against gold. Gold does not hedge against market downturns, believe it or not, but this can be seen time and time again....
You are CNBC troll (talking head).

GOLD beats ANY! investment in the long run. Not sure, If you are blind, NASDAQ yet to recover losses and still 30% in loss since 1999,

DOW going nowhere in Inflation adjusted Terms.. Since last high in 2007 till now it went NOWHERE and Gold add $1000/oz

For the same period. Dollar, mean while, since 1970, lost 95% of it's value or close to it.. Calculate 20$/oz to $1650/oz yeah I guess it's no

premium to Inflation. You are joke man.. I won't feed you anymore, cause I'm tired of your nonsense. "Professional" Troll.

I'll talk to you, when this smoke and Mirror phony Economy collapse (sh*t hits the fan) or when US DEBT hit 200 trillion

Dollars, ones again in year or two, whichever comes first. And "YES" US interest rates still be ZERO or Negative by the then.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #57,571
  • Feb 13, 2013 9:44am Feb 13, 2013 9:44am
Anyways... back to the trading trading thread.

Just opened long gbpusd, good risk reward right now @ 1.5555
Shorted Eur/jpy 126.2 , moving stops down to 127
Moved stops on long aud/usd from yesterday to 1.0290.
  • #57,572
  • Feb 13, 2013 3:49pm Feb 13, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
You are CNBC troll (talking head).

GOLD beats ANY! investment in the long run. Not sure, If you are blind, NASDAQ yet to recover losses and still 30% in loss since 1999,

DOW going nowhere in Inflation adjusted Terms.. Since last high in 2007 till now it went NOWHERE and Gold add $1000/oz

For the same period. Dollar, mean while, since 1970, lost 95% of it's value or close to it.. Calculate 20$/oz to $1650/oz yeah I guess it's no

premium to Inflation. You are joke man.. I won't feed you anymore, cause I'm tired of your nonsense. "Professional"...
Dude, gold ain't that amazing anymore. It's only good for electronics, and there are better metals than it at certain things. It used to be that we couldn't destroy gold, but now we can quite a number of ways.

Only 10% of gold mined today is used in electronics. The computer you're posting on probably doesn't have two dollars worth of gold in it, and if gold went up to 10,000 somehow, the cost of your computer wouldn't be affected by a percent. 50% for investment and 40% bling, but I just simply 90% bling.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #57,573
  • Feb 13, 2013 6:36pm Feb 13, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
Dude, gold ain't that amazing anymore. It's only good for electronics, and there are better metals than it at certain things. It used to be that we couldn't destroy gold, but now we can quite a number of ways.
"Dude, gold ain't that amazing anymore." no..no...no Gold no good.. Paper is perfect.. I know..

"It's only good for electronics" -- Shoot..., I don't even know what to say... I'm speechless, bro..

Gold is money/currency, not the stupid commodity. OMG, you guys don't even have basic understanding

what is what.. "Gold is going down, because it not use in electronics anymore.." ... Why it f*** Central Banks around the World

buying gold then???? I guess they just "barbarians "and don't understand, that gold not used in iPhone's anymore...

Sorry, Bob, Sell Gold, please.. I know you don't have any, but if you do, by any chance, just sell.

Do me a favor.. TTY Later..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #57,574
  • Feb 13, 2013 6:43pm Feb 13, 2013 6:43pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
Dude, gold ain't that amazing anymore. It's only good for electronics, and there are better metals than it at certain things. It used to be that we couldn't destroy gold, but now we can quite a number of ways.

Only 10% of gold mined today is used in electronics. The computer you're posting on probably doesn't have two dollars worth of gold in it, and if gold went up to 10,000 somehow, the cost of your computer wouldn't be affected by a percent. 50% for investment and 40% bling, but I just simply 90% bling.
ur right if you believe we are out of recession for good. But again why do CB's keep buying? Why do we have a currency war? We are preparing for an upleg that will be strongest yet. But not many will be ABLE to get in... its the nature of the beast.. too much leverage available causes JPM/HSBC to run for your margin during NY and Asia. The hardest thing will be to watch knowing you were right but you COULDN'T get in because every time you did it crashed and burned until you got out. So I wait until it crashes and burns before getting in
  • #57,575
  • Feb 13, 2013 6:58pm Feb 13, 2013 6:58pm
Quoting sidhujag
ur right if you believe we are out of recession for good.
Out of recession for good??? By what terms? By printing another (trillion - two $$) per country per year?
Nothing has been fixed/changed. They are trying to move GDP by printing more money.. "Creating Jobs" by printing money???
Europe is completely screwed.. It's all going to comeback at even greater force.. Nothing has been change, except money
supply and how this supposed to be bearish for Inflation, Gold, Commodities down the road???? Sure until they have unlimited funds
to manipulate prices around.. Ones one domino goes down, - it's over.. And that's where gold will spike 100-200$/day,
Just wait and see.. We gonna laugh later on.. So far their manipulation Squad is working fine, but Debt is rising in
geometric progression.. In my lifetime there was no better time to be invested in Gold/Silver...
0% interest rates, unlimited reckless printing, until shhht hits the fan eventually (ain't gonna take long)..
"what goes around comes around" Yeap! Stay tuned.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #57,576
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:05pm Feb 13, 2013 7:05pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Out of recession for good??? By what terms? By printing another (trillion - two $$) per country per year?
Nothing has been fixed/changed. They are trying to move GDP by printing more money.. "Creating Jobs" by printing money???
Europe is completely screwed.. It's all going to comeback at even greater force.. Nothing has been change, except money
supply and how this supposed to be bearish for Inflation, Gold, Commodities down the road???? Sure until they have unlimited funds
to manipulate prices around.. Ones one domino goes down, - it's over.....
There is a side of me that is telling me that these recessions are man made and organized and symptoms of a new generation of power and wealth transfering over. Invisible to us, but to goat the dumb money out of their assets, selling while they are frightened, and happy to work for others for the rest of their lives... so the power can feed off of the people for another generation. Happened everytime there was a significant shift. So all of this debt talk can be squashed if they simply default, start over, create a new currency, or use a platinum coin worth $1 trillion lol... who knows what the sleezeballs have up their sleeve. Either way if this debt issue is real, then buying gold on the open market won't do you any good anyways. You can accumulate physical but be prepared to physically fight over it too

I have 2015 as a time when it turns over.... problem is those are say USD stinks are the same ones who say buy gold... but what happens when the economy does crash.. USD rises gold falls... I would look out for distrust in the US system.. which takes some time (2-3 yrs) and then a slow rounded base in gold to buy into. its all over the place right now.

Look for S&P stock valuations vs S&P index value to hit an extreme where stocks are highly over valued and profits start to actually fall. A few quarters of that atleast. Then when a lower low forms on the daily get in on a retrace and ride it.
  • #57,577
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:19pm Feb 13, 2013 7:19pm
Quoting sidhujag
I have 2015 as a time when it turns over.... problem is those are say USD stinks are the same ones who say buy gold... but what happens when the economy does crash.. USD rises gold falls... I would look out for distrust in the US system.. which takes some time (2-3 yrs) and then a slow rounded base in gold to buy into. its all over the place right now.
"but what happens when the economy does crash.. USD rises gold falls"

Yes for 2-3 hours/days you are right.. Check 2008, Gold falls and where we are now? Common man more than double in price.
Don't tell me, more they print lower commodities prices should go.. It might not have immediate effect but it will, definitely will.
And I'm not telling you, that you just have to buy complete physical Gold.. Paper Gold should work too.. In great depression 1930
stock market lost 70% of it's value, while gold miner shares double/triple in price.. We'll see..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #57,578
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:23pm Feb 13, 2013 7:23pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
"but what happens when the economy does crash.. USD rises gold falls"

Yes for 2-3 hours/days you are right.. Check 2008, Gold falls and where we are now? Common man more than double in price.
Don't tell me, more they print lower commodities prices should go.. It might not have immediate effect but it will, definitely will.
And I'm not telling you, that you just have to buy complete physical Gold.. Paper Gold should work too.. In great depression 1930
stock market lost 70% of it's value, while gold miner shares double/triple in price.. We'll...
But the paper to physical gold market was also out of wack remember... ppl thinking it was end times? If the crash is worse... its 50/50 on which way gold will follow. Most likely down as small sheep will be jumping in giving incentive for a nose dive. At a capitulation event is where the best rr is.... gonna be hard to judge esp because don't know the extent it will go. I prefer a rounded bottom.
  • #57,579
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:33pm Feb 13, 2013 7:33pm
Quoting sidhujag
But the paper to physical gold market was also out of wack remember.
You are right man, you are right.. .cannot be hedged 100%..
Pretty much impossible to escape without deep scratches..
They'll get you here or there.. Hopefully this process won't get out of hand..
I mean gradual process probably ok, but "flash crash" don't want to see that..

Good luck, Gotta go.. Interesting stuff going on on JPY pairs now.. Japan "FOMC" tonight..

Another pump and dump... Or dump and pump. Go figure
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #57,580
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:35pm Feb 13, 2013 7:35pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
You are right man, you are right.. .cannot be hedge 100%..
Pretty much impossible to escape without deep scratches..
They'll get you here or there.. Hopefully this process won't get out of hand..
I mean gradual process probably ok, but "flash crash" don't want to see that..

Good luck, Gotta go.. Interesting stuff going on on JPY pairs now.. Japan "FOMC" tonight..

Another pump and dump... Or dump and pump. Go figure
Wooo..
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/i...IX4kyFPWcYQb-e
98 traders viewing now