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  • #10,261
  • Feb 13, 2013 11:49am Feb 13, 2013 11:49am
tony47,

What made you so confident about 1st short entry? Green did not cross red at the opening of first red candle. It was also a solid EU session move up with no signs of reversing.

Gratz for good entry,
Cheers,
M.
Remember I'm a newbie!
  • #10,262
  • Feb 13, 2013 12:03pm Feb 13, 2013 12:03pm
Quoting mierzyk
tony47,

What made you so confident about 1st short entry? Green did not cross red at the opening of first red candle. It was also a solid EU session move up with no signs of reversing.

Gratz for good entry,
Cheers,
M.
i have entered on that one 1 minute before the candle closed (just clarifying that not to get confused where i entered) - market base line was sloping down (hence i had a bit downward bias) and green and red lines were about to cross. perhaps bit premature entry but if you notice eurjpy had moved up about 180 pips (from 4am london time) from the nearest swing low without any correction. daily range for this pair is about 200 pips at the moment.


again, i am in no way a pro and i am open to suggestions
  • #10,263
  • Feb 13, 2013 12:09pm Feb 13, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting mierzyk
tony47,

What made you so confident about 1st short entry? Green did not cross red at the opening of first red candle. It was also a solid EU session move up with no signs of reversing.

Gratz for good entry,
Cheers,
M.
forgot to add: if you zoom out you can draw a trendline from 6 feb which could give you one more confirmation to go short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13 feb eurjpy trade 2 trendline.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #10,264
  • Feb 14, 2013 12:12am Feb 14, 2013 12:12am
I took this trade yesterday and made my first +50 pips trading Price Action and TDI strategy

Reasons to enter the trade are shown on the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2-14-2013 8-37-51 AM.png Size: 37 KB
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #10,265
  • Feb 14, 2013 12:29am Feb 14, 2013 12:29am
I have seen this pattern happens many times in backtesting and today early morning happened again

Price Action makes a double bottom or tops followed by a pullback candle and then a change of color candle opens and makes almost upto + 50 pips or so

Anyone can confirm this pattern or have experienced trading this pattern , please let me know the reasons behind this trading psychology

Notes on the chart

Thanks
Attached Image
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #10,266
  • Feb 14, 2013 2:35am Feb 14, 2013 2:35am
EUR/JPY H1 trade with some questions below the figure:

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/5467/ej20131402.jpg

Woke up 8:05 GMT and took the trade without any hesitation:
Pullback bar from Asian high with double top shy from 126. Did not take the screen shot, but green was already steeply sloping down leaving quite decent gap from red and yellow. TP hit after 8m.

At ~8:20 I visited calendar on FF and saw that there is a BOJ press conference scheduled at 8:24.

1. Any of you recall, whether this event was posted there at 8:00? If so, I guess I would not take the trade.
2. Would you take a trade 30m before news if the signals were so obvious?
Remember I'm a newbie!
  • #10,267
  • Feb 14, 2013 3:24am Feb 14, 2013 3:24am
Hi Everybody,

I am new to this thread. have spend the last 2 weeks going thru this thread, some parts of the TMS thread and one other thread that uses the ema's as lately mentioned by Xman. The last 2 only for background knowledge as I am determined to learn and master the S3 way of trading.

I developed a special liking to Phx62's posts and his way of trading. I am still in the phase of re-studying the thread (especially all Phx62's posts) and starting to do some back-testing, so I am nowhere near contributing to this thread.....hopefully in the near future.

I just want to make one comment: What is very (the most) helpful to me at this stage (at the point to start back-testing) is all the less experienced traders posting their trades and then the experienced traders commentating on those. All the comments about why a setup was not good or what to look out for when evaluating a potential setup as in the mentioned posts, is a gold mine of knowledge.

So to everybody who is active in this regard, a big THANK YOU from me, and keep up the good work, it helps a lot.

Regards
  • #10,268
  • Feb 14, 2013 3:30am Feb 14, 2013 3:30am
Quoting mierzyk
EUR/JPY H1 trade with some questions below the figure:

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/5467/ej20131402.jpg

Woke up 8:05 GMT and took the trade without any hesitation:
Pullback bar from Asian high with double top shy from 126. Did not take the screen shot, but green was already steeply sloping down leaving quite decent gap from red and yellow. TP hit after 8m.

At ~8:20 I visited calendar on FF and saw that there is a BOJ press conference scheduled at 8:24.

1. Any of you recall, whether this event was posted there at 8:00?...
it was a press conference at 8.24 of your time - but either way that doesnt mean that you would see a spike exactly at that time since they start talking generally first before releasing anything important. i was still sleeping at that time.
the high impact news was at the beginning of the hour when they release german GDP, thats what moved those pairs. weaker french GDP before didnt help euro either
6:30amEUR
French Prelim GDP q/q
-0.3%-0.2%0.1%
7:00amEUR
German Prelim GDP q/q
-0.6%-0.5%0.2%
7:24amJPY
BOJ Press Conference
  • #10,269
  • Edited 5:28am Feb 14, 2013 3:40am | Edited 5:28am
Entered LONG Eur/Jpy on the 1st candle after LO. LO candle was a pullback candle which retraced from the 200EMA, there was also a TDI cross although the cross happened around 50level which if I remember well from Phx's posts is not a very good level. But anyway I entered the trade. At the moment I entered the market the candle I marked on the below picture with the vertical red dotted line, was blue. Ten minutes after PA moved against me, and the candle became red. The PA still around 200EMA, I'm still in the trade as my SL of 50 pips was not triggered.

Any opinions will be appreciated. Thanks

UPDATE: SL hit -50 pips lost on this trade...lately i'm picking up only the loosing trades
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,270
  • Feb 14, 2013 3:45am Feb 14, 2013 3:45am
tonny47, Phx62

Would you take a trade (regular TMS 1H) that occurs 30m prior to red release if the signals were very reliable?
Remember I'm a newbie!
  • #10,271
  • Feb 14, 2013 4:02am Feb 14, 2013 4:02am
Quoting gigicualex
Entered LONG Eur/Jpy on the 1st candle after LO. LO candle was a pullback candle which retraced from the 200EMA, there was also a TDI cross although the cross happened around 50level which if I remember well from Phx's posts is not a very good level. But anyway I entered the trade. At the moment I entered the market the candle I marked on the below picture with the vertical red dotted line, was blue. Ten minutes after PA moved against me, and the candle became red. The PA still around 200EMA, I'm still in the trade as my SL of 50 pips was not triggered....

As far as I remember (and I do remember clearly), Phx62 stated that bounce off EMA200 in similar type of PA should be only taken after the color change of reversing bar that is closed. No color change here- no trade.

IMO there are other factors standing against this trade, but I'm too newbiesh to comment on trades others than my own.

Cheers,
M.
Remember I'm a newbie!
  • #10,272
  • Feb 14, 2013 4:11am Feb 14, 2013 4:11am
Quoting mierzyk
tonny47, Phx62

Would you take a trade (regular TMS 1H) that occurs 30m prior to red release if the signals were very reliable?
not an expert view from me but... i most likely wouldnt enter. yesterday i had a euro trade before red news but it was open much longer before the news and i moved it to break even prior to news release.
  • #10,273
  • Feb 14, 2013 4:28am Feb 14, 2013 4:28am
i took a short trade on gbpjpy at london open. waited for the price to pullback a little and got in at 145.00. SL 40 pips. bit worried because of the imminent support of the previous low and the fact that there was quite a downmove without proper retracement. also TDI crossed up again
  • #10,274
  • Feb 14, 2013 4:34am Feb 14, 2013 4:34am
Quoting gigicualex
Entered LONG Eur/Jpy on the 1st candle after LO. LO candle was a pullback candle which retraced from the 200EMA, there was also a TDI cross although the cross happened around 50level which if I remember well from Phx's posts is not a very good level. But anyway I entered the trade. At the moment I entered the market the candle I marked on the below picture with the vertical red dotted line, was blue. Ten minutes after PA moved against me, and the candle became red. The PA still around 200EMA, I'm still in the trade as my SL of 50 pips was not triggered.

Any...
i was more likely to go short on this one since i felt we are in downtrend - market base line sloping down, lower highs, lower lows and also the trendline. i stayed out because i though ema200 is too strong support. if you have a look at what tdi red and green were doing, they were sticking around the market base line and 50 line - more or less flat. at london open i already felt that i miss the train because there was already strong move down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 14 february eurjpy trendline.png Size: 49 KB
  • #10,275
  • Feb 14, 2013 5:18am Feb 14, 2013 5:18am
Quoting tonny47
i took a short trade on gbpjpy at london open. waited for the price to pullback a little and got in at 145.00. SL 40 pips. bit worried because of the imminent support of the previous low and the fact that there was quite a downmove without proper retracement. also TDI crossed up again
up 40 pips and moved my stop to BE. will try to squeeze a bit more from it
  • #10,276
  • Feb 14, 2013 5:39am Feb 14, 2013 5:39am
planned to hold the trade a bit longer but chickened out and exited with 51 pips although there might still be good move down in my opinion on the other hand who knows perhaps good decision to get out.
anyway, good luck guys, i think i am done for today - eurjpy and eurusd seems already too overextended for me to go short in terms of the daily range, yet i am scared to try to `catch a falling knife` and go long.

gbpjpy +51 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 14 feb gbpjpy.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #10,277
  • Feb 14, 2013 7:44am Feb 14, 2013 7:44am
Hello Dee,

Would you agree with the below 123 pattern on hourly eur/jpy?

I've drew fibs from today's low/high which are actualy represented by RNs, The 2 leg retraces till 32 Fib level which is also today's S1 pivot. I've entered a SH at 124.6 tight SL hopping to get at least till FEE 100.

Any comments?

Thanks,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 55 KB
  • #10,278
  • Feb 14, 2013 7:50am Feb 14, 2013 7:50am
Phx62,

Feb 11th (Monday) and Feb 12th (Tuesday) were one of these days that turn the world around. If I had traded them, I would have lost pleny of pips. I'd be very grateful, if you would comment and share your view on at least some of below analyses.

Thankyou!


http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/6856/eupuzzle.jpg


TUESDAY:

Thurstaday and Friday are bearish days that created lower lows and higher lows. Friday's drop was quick and massive. Part of Monday is captured on the screen.


I. Then there is bar (1) (Frankfurt Open). Double top created an opportunity to go short and join the bears with the trend. Green should have crossed red if not at the beginning of (2), then after it went a bit south. To me this was a very valid entry that failed. What is wrong with my analysis here?

II. Nice buy opportunity. LO (2) candle tested low and reversed. Bounce off the red. London session created a low and reversed. Considering risk:reward 1:1, going long at the open of bar 3 would not grant profit until bar 6. Going long after breaking the top of bar 2 would end up with BE at best. Where would you enter that long and where would you place stop loss?

III. Bar (4) is a pullback-like bar, some might go short. I did not, since the market was already way too choppy. Though I bet that opening of bar (6) provided a decent cross of green below red. What is your interpretation of this PA?


WEDNESDAY

IV. LO (A) created a nice pullback bar. I remember that open of (B) provided hardly visible cross of green above red. The bar itself tested yesterday's low and reversed. Did not take this trade because of poor cross, red colour of bar (A) and a strong down movement of Asian session (I'd expect price to continue in the direction of that strong movement). What would you made confident to go long here. Would you join bulls at all? Bar (B) has is printed red by my Synergy Bars indi. Yours is blue.

V. I actually took short position here. Pullback bar (B) tested Asian high and reversed. There was also a healthy looking bounce green off the red at the beginning of bar (C). Situation of two consecutive pullback bars in opposite direction happens relatively often. How do you interpret that PA?

VI. What can I say... (D) and (E) rejected EMA200. (F) tested it once more and reversed. I would have gone short as soon as the low of bar (E) was broken. The cross at the beginning of bar (G) was clearly visible back then (bar (H) reprinted red). What is your view on this trade?


Kind regards,
mierzyk
Remember I'm a newbie!
  • #10,279
  • Feb 14, 2013 9:59am Feb 14, 2013 9:59am
Quoting gigicualex
Hello Dee,

Would you agree with the below 123 pattern on hourly eur/jpy?

I've drew fibs from today's low/high which are actualy represented by RNs, The 2 leg retraces till 32 Fib level which is also today's S1 pivot. I've entered a SH at 124.6 tight SL hopping to get at least till FEE 100.

Any comments?

Thanks,
The earlier 123 was more relevant. Zoom Out (chart 2). Support level at 123.70ish. 89% fib. Confluence of 78% fib & 161.8% FEE of earlier 123. But so what. You made nice pips anyway. +70ish pips?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr zoom in.png Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1Hr zoom out.png Size: 27 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #10,280
  • Feb 14, 2013 10:07am Feb 14, 2013 10:07am
told myself earlier that i dont want to try to catch falling knife but still got long eurusd an hour ago. tdi is oversold and crossed. decent euro move down, and major support from 21-24 january 2013. lets see how this one plays out
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