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No Brainer Trades

  • #14,381
  • Edited 9:51pm Nov 19, 2012 9:18pm | Edited 9:51pm
I know that probably few if any of the original posters are viewing this thread anymore, but I wanted to express my strong gratitude for all of those who have contributed, especially BillyRayValentine, Iron-Man, Mary Pippins, and Siam earlier on. While I'd read through both James16's and TraderDante's threads (and learned immense amounts from each), this is the first time I've actually had things click as to why a method works. Before, I never really understood why certain levels mattered or why I could have confidence that they would hold - in particular, an explanation of order stacking. Now I feel more confident in my trading and in my first few tries have had some incredible results.

My first couple tries at this method ended up getting stopped out because I wasn't creating an appropriate range (price crept a few pips beyond and reversed), but I nailed an entry on the NZD/USD today, although I didn't make a lot of profit from it. I missed my first opportunity while I was sleeping but set an autotrade with a 1 pip + spread stoploss later on, and got in with around one pip drawdown before it moved in the other direction. Closed the trade after it failed to break support and then broke short term resistance on the 5 minute chart. The precision with which this works is just incredible and lends to some very nice opportunities.



http://i.imgur.com/YpC0Ll.png

If anybody wants to compare or is otherwise interested I'll be glad to upload some of my other charts as an attachment. I'd love to see this thread moving again.
  • #14,382
  • Edited 5:50am Nov 24, 2012 3:04am | Edited 5:50am
X is the low before an high bar 1. Bar 2 is when the market had the opportunity to mark up more it failed if you see the previous 2 bars are all closing on their highs. We want to see the reaction A D C are closing on their lows so sellers are controlling the market.
D breaks the low at X This is a mark down bar because form the high of bar D it gave a new low NEW L
We wait a retest rally from New Low to bar 4 It took 7 hours to retrace 3 bars
So it breaks bar 5 form the high of bar 5 we have another new low bar 8.
What we do is to compare two rallies the first from 6 to TEST weak rally and the second from bar 8 to 9. To see if someone has a line (price of accumulation this line was 0.8131
8 to 9 is a good rally why ? The closes of the bars are all up so midlle range to high the buyers are in controll. We notice the ability of the market to rally very good.
@ 10 it springs from 10 to 12 buyers are more agressive because the market doesn't makes new lows.
10-12 the closes are strong are all up or they close in the middle of their ranges VOL is low
Bars 1 and 2 VOL is high because the ranges are wide or a change of hands or a battle between bulls and bears.
12 is the restes of the broken resistance high of bar 9.
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  • #14,383
  • Dec 1, 2012 4:29am Dec 1, 2012 4:29am
head and shlouder on 4H chart. I try to enter @1.2955 and exit around 1.3350-80 area. otherwise enter above 1.3020 and target is same as above. low leverage position with wider stop loss. in first case i.e 1.2955 entery area. tight stop loss if enter above @1.3020. views comment plz.
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just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #14,384
  • Dec 1, 2012 10:52am Dec 1, 2012 10:52am
Quoting shaukat113
head and shlouder on 4H chart. I try to enter @1.2955 and exit around 1.3350-80 area. otherwise enter above 1.3020 and target is same as above. low leverage position with wider stop loss. in first case i.e 1.2955 entery area. tight stop loss if enter above @1.3020. views comment plz.
Bad idea in my opinion unless 1.3020 breaks, in which case you're better off waiting for a re-test of that level because the strong top formation is very bearish. Going long at your level would be throwing yourself into supply. If it does break 1.3020, you have a range of about 40 pips before the next pivot level....I'd be much more confident going short than long until the double top and fib confluence is broken on the daily.
  • #14,385
  • Dec 27, 2012 3:50pm Dec 27, 2012 3:50pm
Hello All,

A quick question please. How many bars does one need to look back for monthly, weekly and daily? Many thanks
  • #14,386
  • Jan 31, 2013 2:41am Jan 31, 2013 2:41am
Hi,

Usually it would take a couple of rejections on any time frame before you would consider fading or looking for breakouts. The next time price approaches that level then be ready to take the trade. There are also other factors to consider before leaping in though, ie general trend, decent price patterns etc. The key is to getting all the odds in your favor before pulling the trigger.

Example You have two rejections off the weekly and price is moving towards that level again and now there is a 50 fib level in confluence with your rejection line, there might even be a pin bar lurking in there somewhere and no nasty news around the corner.

The odds are in your favor and away you go.
  • #14,387
  • Feb 7, 2013 5:58am Feb 7, 2013 5:58am
it‘s very usefull！thanks
Mean Reversion
  • #14,388
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:14am Feb 7, 2013 6:14am
Siam

Thank you very useful info

-Bill
  • #14,389
  • Feb 13, 2013 12:38am Feb 13, 2013 12:38am
http://s7.postimage.org/jg8jp0s4b/13_feb_gj2.gif
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Am I right?
shut up and I'll take your money!!
  • #14,390
  • Feb 13, 2013 1:49am Feb 13, 2013 1:49am
Quoting gdzhepa
http://s7.postimage.org/jg8jp0s4b/13_feb_gj2.gif
image hosting sites

Am I right?
That's definitely a price pivot.
  • #14,391
  • Feb 13, 2013 4:08am Feb 13, 2013 4:08am
Quoting Kanzler
That's definitely a price pivot.
it was closed for +20 something. And I wait the price touch that area again and now it's running back and forth around that area.

Well, could you please tell me how to set the stop loss? I meant what pips should I put as stop loss?
shut up and I'll take your money!!
  • #14,392
  • Feb 13, 2013 5:20am Feb 13, 2013 5:20am
Quoting gdzhepa
it was closed for +20 something. And I wait the price touch that area again and now it's running back and forth around that area.

Well, could you please tell me how to set the stop loss? I meant what pips should I put as stop loss?
Honestly I don't play these kinds of line levels anymore as I found supply and demand to be a more rational perspective, but what I used to do in situations like this is use price action to set a stop loss. For example if price reached my level and formed an outside bar, I would set my stoploss one pip above the high of the outside bar. Same with a pinbar. Unfortunately I became unhappy with the reliability of bar patterns but to each their own. Perhaps Siam can provide a more thread-relevant response, as he's been here for the long haul.
  • #14,393
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:10am Feb 13, 2013 7:10am
Quoting Kanzler
Honestly I don't play these kinds of line levels anymore as I found supply and demand to be a more rational perspective, but what I used to do in situations like this is use price action to set a stop loss. For example if price reached my level and formed an outside bar, I would set my stoploss one pip above the high of the outside bar. Same with a pinbar. Unfortunately I became unhappy with the reliability of bar patterns but to each their own. Perhaps Siam can provide a more thread-relevant response, as he's been here for the long haul.
I thought that also! I put the stop loss on the tail of the rejection bar, but my initial stop would be 30 something. I've read a bit about supply and demand analysis, do you have any good resources on supply and demand analysis? or you have the journal about it?
shut up and I'll take your money!!
  • #14,394
  • Feb 13, 2013 1:38pm Feb 13, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting gdzhepa
I thought that also! I put the stop loss on the tail of the rejection bar, but my initial stop would be 30 something. I've read a bit about supply and demand analysis, do you have any good resources on supply and demand analysis? or you have the journal about it?
I have a journal thread but I rarely update it. If you want more information on supply and demand analysis, google Sam Seiden. He has a bunch of articles and webinar archives on FXStreet that are worth your time.
  • #14,395
  • Feb 14, 2013 2:30am Feb 14, 2013 2:30am
Nobrainertrades is back by the way...

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/
  • #14,396
  • Apr 10, 2013 12:00pm Apr 10, 2013 12:00pm
Quoting savingpig
Nobrainertrades is back by the way... http://www.nobrainertrades.com/
Cool...:nerd:
  • #14,397
  • May 23, 2013 5:07am May 23, 2013 5:07am
The ranges set up S/R levels (esp. zones that act as both S and R are very powerful as BRV states)

http://charts.mql5.com/1/622/gbpjpy-...poration-3.png

These levels hold up in counter-trend trading even against the strongest trends. A good way to pick off clusters of limit orders on the way down.

http://charts.mql5.com/1/623/gbpjpy-...orporation.png
  • #14,398
  • May 27, 2013 12:39pm May 27, 2013 12:39pm
How can you determine the support and resistance level on the above chart?
  • #14,399
  • May 27, 2013 8:39pm May 27, 2013 8:39pm
Good question indeed.
Quoting mumuy
How can you determine the support and resistance level on the above chart?
  • #14,400
  • May 27, 2013 8:46pm May 27, 2013 8:46pm
Quoting kk007
Good question indeed.{quote}
With your eyes and knowledge KK007. Price closed and did not close above that level again. You must think differently than others to really see.
Stop asking questions and start looking deeper. You will never get the answer to what you seek until YOU find it. Nobody can or will give away the goose that lays the golden eggs. I'm nobody, just someone that is starting to put the puzzle all together and making it work. Good luck.
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