AUD/USD

What charts, dude? Currency war going on in full force, look for policies, interest rates, who said what and who print more money..

Short JPY, just buy/short and hold and forget about charts.. If you cannot, then scalp.. Like today for example.. Somebody say something during

G7 meeting and it was like a bomb, I was not even able to react fast enough and lost some $, while charts was telling different sotires..

I can give you few charts here and there and

It's all useless pretty much, if they worked more than 50% of the time, then everyone will be a millionaire on Forex by now..

Charts, Indicators, Talks.. Better have 1 single insider in Central bank, that will do better than all Indicators combined..

Just flip a coin and place SL and TP, that should do it Otherwise go by interest rates and monetary policies to get a clue..

AUDUSD fair value at least 1.05 right now IMHO. Good luck.

P.S

Forgot to tell you.. If those FED crooks gonna get tired manipulating GOLD/Silver, (Look at Gold Chart) then in any event of a Gold rise

AUD/NZD/CAD should follow higher.. Got it?

You are so wrong... Charts help IF YOU KNOW WHAT YOU'RE DOING.

Take a look at my trade results from September 2011 through now for only two different currency pairs and tell me charts don't matter. Flip of the coin, really? Sounds like you are just a gambler...

EUR/AUD: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post6419425

AUD/JPY: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post6422786

*Over 25,000 pips in a year and a half strictly from Technical Trading and you tell me charts don't matter... Are you a trader or are you a professional blogger / forum poster? Come on man...

I think you are the one who needs to get a clue, almost 5,000 posts and you don't even make any sense! Maybe if you got off your high horse you might open your mind and learn something. Just a suggestion.

25,000 pips and a 70% win rate doesn't happen by "flipping a coin" as you put it. By the way, would you like me to post results for CAD/JPY as well? Over 12,000 pips made from that pair since September 2011 using a technical system.

I was short .02570 yesterday looking for a ~ 3 day ride down to .02000 then the G7 thing blew me out of the water. Does anyone agree that another short from ~ .03370 looking to ride a correction back down to .02570 could work?

Traps for new players.

some people dont look at charts to trade/invest..
like warren buffett.. im sure he doesnt look at chart for all his invest decisions...

So? Why are you asking me for charts then? Trying to teach me? Don't need your help bro, thanks..
Charts are good, if you read them from right to left. Everything always make sense this way.
By looking forward, I don't know any single person on planet Earth who can predict a future. NOBODY can do it.. Period.
If you got 1000 pips stop loss and 1000 pips take profit, then you don't need charts, Bob, eventually you going to be right..

That wasn't the point of my post, the point was Skyzer is saying charts are unnecessary and that they don't work. I simply showed him otherwise.

Not trying to help you buddy, just showing you the other side of the coin which you clearly don't understand.

Ok, I guess you've made your point pretty clear, you simply buy, hold, and hope. I am not a gambler and don't trade using this buy, hold, and hope approach. Good luck.

I don't try to predict which cards will come next when I play texas hold 'em. I simply increase my exposure depending on my odds and other factors. That thinking is helping me out with being wrong in forex.

Maybe chart doesnt work for him.. too much information he doesnt need..
but i am curious to know why he thinks AUD fair value is 1.05,

Calculated moves right? Just like in FOREX. Definitely not a flip of the coin, well not for most anyways...

I think you're right, charts don't work for him as he probably doesn't know how to interpret the data or doesn't understand support / resistance and / or price action.

I'm also curious to hear WHY he thinks the way he does as he is making claims / projections without any type of analysis to back up his theory. Unless of course he really is just flipping a coin and in that case we don't need any other explanation for his projections.

I just won't take him serious and will take his posts as "entertainment" only from now on.

I never look at a chart either and I've been trading professionally for 3 decades .
As a matter of fact it's 30 years this week that I started out as a trainee floor trader on the SFE ,
trading Interest Rates , Gold , Silver , Wool & Cattle Futures . The SPI was launched at that end of that month - Feb '83 .
The only time I'll look at a chart is if I'm considering trading a new market .
My memory is excellent . I'll lock in all the major and the recent Hi's & Lo's .
I consider Hi's & Lo's are definitive , anything else I see as subjective .
I'm not slating chartists , but charting isn't the Holy Grail that a lot traders seem to think it is .

you are like a great chef who knows how to cook delicious food without looking at recipe,
some of us are not born to be chef, my cooking is a disaster even with recipe...
(like the spice girl from MKR if you watch that stupid show)

I do use charts, but you ever read that disclaimer?

"past performance does not guarantee future results"

That's what you trying to achieve buy looking at previous events considering they should work in the future " heads and shoulders",

"shooting star" "bullish hammer" blahh.. blahh.. it's all 50/50 it's works sometime and sometime it doesn't.

After all 90% of traders loosing money on Forex and 100% of them using charts, indicators, templates and so on..

I don't need to prove anything else, my number speak for themselves. I'm done with this conversation Skyzer.

I simply asked you to provide charts to back up your statement and claims for particular numbers you posted for AUD/USD. You still haven't done that... Not wasting any more time with you.

Good luck.

he is Austin Power,
he has time machine..
LOL.

Actually I think AUD fair value now is 2.00 If not present manipulations and Currency war.

What calculation?

AUD interest rate is 3%
USD 0%
FED printing money like nuts 1 trillion/year..

Ones GOLD will cut those manipulators out AUD will fly, maybe tomorrow? Look at GOLD chart

AUD = miner industry which been killed recently, otherwise it should trade at 1.10 now, at least..

AUD= GOLD/MINERS.. And GOLD/MINERS = Cooked and Crooked & manipulated by JPM and Goldman Sucks.

Have a good night..

GOLD need to break above $1700/oz

To me, the Fed is poised to raise rates later this year or next year, while the RBA has been lowering rates. The rate they are at right now has held up in the past, but even if the RBA holds rates, the Fed raising rates will change things.

Exactly! Most don't take this into consideration. I'm going to post something I wrote on a different forum a few weeks ago. This should peak the USD bears and the "Gold Bugs" interest a little.

Bonds are supposed to be the safest of safe investments. At least, according to many of the talking heads on Wall Street — but nothing could be further from the truth right now!

That's because long-term bonds have been driven to astronomically sky-high levels by the most reckless monetary policy in the history of the world ... which in turn has prompted the biggest influx of money into fixed income investments ever!

That pushes prices higher. And since yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, they have collapsed to miniscule levels, dramatically raising the risk that months and months of income can be vaporized in the blink of an eye!

Just look at what happened in the first week of 2013!

Long-term Treasuries lost roughly 3% of their value in only a few days. That was enough to wipe out an entire YEAR'S WORTH OF INTEREST, given the 3% yield on long-term bonds!
http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2625a/chart2.gif

Look, the world has been dog-piling like mad into bonds – Treasuries, mortgage bonds, junk bonds, emerging market bonds. We're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in inflows, the biggest flood of money into bonds EVER.

As with just about every bubble over the past two decades, it's been prompted by reckless Federal Reserve policy. Just like the bubbles in dot-coms, housing, and other asset classes, it was always doomed to burst ...

And it's clear that we're seeing the classic signs that this bubble has already begun to burst right now!

Remember, there is an inverse correlation between Bond Value and Bond Yield. That's why Treasury yields move in the opposite direction of Treasury bond values.

So what happens to the hundreds of billions of dollars that flooded the Bond market? Well, I would imagine that most of it is going to make its way back into the stock market. A surge in demand for the US stock market does not necessarily mean that all other risk assets will be affected in the same way due to the fact that this "new surge" in demand for stocks suggests a higher demand for US dollars which is the currency used to pay for these assets. As you can see, money will leave the Bond market and make its way to the stock market. I'll repeat this again, this new surge in demand for stocks suggests a higher demand for US dollars which is the currency used to pay for these assets.

Gold is at a 6 month low and is actually sitting on a MAJOR trend line which has been in effect since January 2011. That is 2 years! If this breaks, then Gold will more than likely fall to previous support at $1,525. Are people here ready for Gold to drop to these levels? What would be the catalyst for Gold to drop you might ask? Simple, as Bonds lose value interest rates rise. This is a positive effect for the USD in a BIG way. Money flows to higher yielding currencies / assets which is why AUD is valued so high and also the reason why people park their money in stocks, namely stocks that pay dividends. It doesn't matter if the FED wants this to happen or not, they cant stop everything. In fact, it is already happening! I'm not going to go out on a limb again and post my prediction but just keep an eye on Bonds and Interest Rates during the coming weeks / months.

I see two possible scenarios unfolding this year:

1) USD recovery as the US leads the way to the global economic recovery...

OR

2) If global recovery slows then we get another bearish equity market in a risk averse move with capital fleeing to safety in the USD.

Either way, the USD wins...



GOLD BUGS
Eldorado golden dreams... flashes of Yukon fever... or... just a general fascination with the "barbarous relic."

Whatever might compel you to keep tabs on gold, one thing is for sure:

You may have not considered a few things.

Gold above $1,000 can't really be used to rationalize anything other than speculation. Assuming, you don't already have some stored away as insurance. That is really the correct purpose. Just know that it is a hedge against inflation, but it won't pay a premium to it, it will track inflation, but won't pay a premium over it. People actually think Gold is an investment, it actually is NOT an investment. You don't hedge stocks against gold. Gold does not hedge against market downturns, believe it or not, but this can be seen time and time again.

Peter Brandt, famous commodity trader puts it like this, "speculators trade price and price alone, falling in love with an underlying asset represented by price and price only is a fool's game." Speculation is not bad, but die hard speculators that think a dormant commodity that has zero growth potential outside of price is an investment, you're barking up the wrong tree. Example: A gun, like a bar of gold, is inert, its passive. You have to do something with the gun to create value, and just like Gold it should be seen as an insurance policy you wish to never use.

Right now, I personally wouldn't touch Gold! Look at a 10 year chart! 10 year Gold channel support being tested! Whether it bounces up to $2,000 who cares, at this time why worry about it? Put it this way, the longer ago you bought gold the greater the chance you'll have that you still might get a return. WHY? It is out of WHACK! Typically, from a historical perspective, markets that are price movement based that are out of "whack" tend to get back in balance. So, let's say price goes back to $1,000 an ounce again and you bought at a little over / under $1,000 an ounce, you are teetering against break even. What if you buy now? Risk / Reward ratio is nowhere close to where it was in the past decade.

I would like the Gold bugs to ask themselves what is it that has you fixed on Gold? Why are you in it? If it's about trading price movement does gold have to be the market? What is it about stocks, for instance, that are different than an inert commodity. Companies that produce profits, pay out dividends, etc... Why Gold?


My Theory: We are going to break below the 10 year channel support line and are going to stay there for quite some time. If you're wondering where this support number is it is roughly $1,650 an ounce. So we are currently at the edge....


Let me also ask you this, is it possible for the USD to collapse say this year? How about next year? Or the year after that? Simple answer is NO! What would replace the USD as the reserve currency? Nothing comes close at this time...



A Reminder of U.S. Strength… From My Visit to The Dominican Republic
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Greetings from the sunny, windy Dominican Republic…

I've been in the Dominican Republic for a week. I've spent hours traveling the roads, stopping in small towns along the way. And I've paid for everything in U.S. dollars, no questions asked.

You might think you'd need Dominican money while in the Dominican Republic. But you really don't… U.S. dollars work just fine here.

This trip reminded me that the U.S. dollar is clearly the most important currency on our slice of the globe. And I don't expect that to change anytime soon. A U.S. dollar crisis is certain someday… but that day is not today.

The U.S. dollar is headed for a major crisis at some point. This is certain. The U.S. government is already broke and digging a deeper hole daily. The only question is: "When will the big crisis arrive?"

My short answer is, not in the next couple years. Let me explain briefly, starting with my trip to the Dominican Republic…

For the entire trip, I haven't exchanged U.S. dollars for a single Dominican peso. I've done the same thing recently in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Belize, Mexico, the Bahamas, and other Latin American/Caribbean countries. The U.S. dollar works just as well.

Nobody ever says, "No, U.S. dollars are not accepted here – you must pay in Costa Rican colones."

When you think about it the other way around, you see just how important the U.S. dollar is to this region…

For example, can you imagine going to your local grocery store and paying in Dominican pesos instead of U.S. dollars – even though you are in the United States? Can you imagine using money from a country that most people have never been to? That's what people in the Dominican Republic are doing today…

I talked with two successful Dominicans. Neither has left the Dominican Republic before…

"It's very hard to get a visa to leave the Dominican Republic," they told me. "It's very hard to get permission from the government to leave. The government thinks that if we leave, we will never come back."

Wow. And I thought we had it tough in the States. Successful Dominicans can't even leave their country. Ouch.

Dominicans happily accept U.S. dollars, though. And it's not just here…The U.S. dollar is the most widely accepted unit of money in the Americas… and to a lesser extent, the world.

Being the world's "reserve" currency provides the United States with an enormous advantage – we can print the world's currency.

I believe the U.S.' ability to print the world's currency will buy the U.S. government a lot of time – years – before a true debt/currency crisis would happen.

Think about this… what would replace it as the "reserve" currency here in the Dominican Republic?

The euro? The euro is actually accepted here in the Dominican Republic, too. But Europe's problems are just as bad as those in the U.S.

Gold? Hard to imagine right this second. China's currency? Not for decades.

What about a currency from some other country in the Americas?

As mismanaged as the U.S. dollar is, the currencies in many of these countries are treated even worse. For example, Mexico had its own currency crisis in 1994. Inflation grew to over 50% by the end of 1995. Even after things settled down, Mexico's inflation has doubled U.S. inflation since 2000 (4.8% a year versus 2.4%, respectively).

Argentina is a similar story. Inflation hit 40% in 2002, as the Argentinian peso collapsed. Post-crisis, inflation in Argentina still hovers around 10%… four times more than it is in the U.S.

Here's a look at the year-over-year inflation numbers since 2000 for several other key countries in the region, as well…

Year-Over-Year Inflation Since 2000

Country / Inflation
Dominican Republic / 11.7%
Nicaragua / 7.9%
Costa Rica / 9.3%
Venezuela / 22.4%
Colombia / 5.3%
United States / 2.4%

This trip was a great reminder of just how much the U.S. dollar is still king.

A U.S. currency crisis is certain someday. As I said, the U.S. government is broke AND digging a deeper hole daily. But I believe the day of reckoning won't be here tomorrow.

Thanks to the "Global Bernanke Asset Bubble," we have time – possibly years – to make a fortune in U.S. stocks and real estate… before the dollar's day of reckoning arrives.

Good investing,
Steve