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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #621
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:27am Feb 12, 2013 9:27am
SP & Olarion thank you for the vouch!
  • #622
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:28am Feb 12, 2013 9:28am
Quoting PiptheRipper
Hi Olarion.

I'll let SP answer your question, but if I may. Just think about it like this. Is it worth aiming for a target less than 1R? You risk 1 unit to get less than 1 unit return. That to me is a definite no. So the reward should be at least more than 1R and more in the region of 1.5R minimum.

In your example EUR/USD, it would be much safer to skip the daily open trade and rather trade the weekly close. This is a stronger level IMHO. Especially because of the fact that it's Tuesday and price has been trading mostly above that weekly close....
Hello PiptheRipper,

I think you really deserve kudos for your excellent post. Your comments indicate that you have learned and now practice many of the key concepts that SP has taught. You use that knowledge to read your chart, spot potentially good trades and then filter them for the best R:R. Very cool.
  • #623
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:29am Feb 12, 2013 9:29am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Very good.

I botched it up today. I should have been short from yesterday when the weekly high was hit the first time. I am distracted and it shows.
Thanks. Ah, you mean UJ. The previous week's high on EJ was not yet reached...
  • #624
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:31am Feb 12, 2013 9:31am
Quoting PiptheRipper
SP & Olarion thank you for the vouch!
You deserve it. You have shown your excellent analytic skills and I like your thinking. Keep it up!
  • #625
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:39am Feb 12, 2013 9:39am
Ok, i feel damn, but now i get it....it was so simple. TP and S/L have to be the same distance apart.Right? Then you let it ride more when you are on the positive side.
  • #626
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:40am Feb 12, 2013 9:40am
I wanted to make this experiment public. I have started to average in to a short position at last weeks low in Cable. I am in my test account for this as I am done in the main account for the day. I have the intention of holding this. I still spend a lot of time each day on trying to hold trades. Hopefully this won't stop out and I can have a successful experiment. I missed the original retracement to the level so I have broken into thirds and have two thirds in now. Last third will go in at the aqua if it gets there. Aqua is last week low. Price has already gone far enough below to have been a stopout so this short would be a normal entry.

I am seriously trying to get the big gain with this trade as I really want to transition into making two or three trades a week and holding them for bigger moves.
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  • #627
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:40am Feb 12, 2013 9:40am
Quoting Olarion1975
Thanks. Ah, you mean UJ. The previous week's high on EJ was not yet reached...
Yes UJ can you tell I am distracted this week?
  • #628
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:45am Feb 12, 2013 9:45am
Quoting square1
Ok. Does that mean that i will have my stop-loss above the take-profit! Kinda like two stops above market price. Right?

Edit:Sorry that was an example for a long entry.

Sorry, i mixed up everything. I guess you have explained it well and i get it , let me try it out.
An important part of Peter Crowns' method is that he does not move the stop to breakeven on the second half of the trade. He leaves it at the other end of the inside bar. This means that if you get 1/1 on your first half and the other goes back and stops out you will lose the spread. It also means that you will not be stopped out when price just tests the inside bar and then goes off to profit.

I want to restate my earlier thought that I don't believe this method has the same power it did years ago. We don't have the strong trends for many months. If the market returns to a smooth trending state then this method will be extremely profitable if you can hold those winners for a very long time and keep adding along the way.
  • #629
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:56am Feb 12, 2013 9:56am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I wanted to make this experiment public. I have started to average in to a short position at last weeks low in Cable. I am in my test account for this as I am done in the main account for the day. I have the intention of holding this. I still spend a lot of time each day on trying to hold trades. Hopefully this won't stop out and I can have a successful experiment. I missed the original retracement to the level so I have broken into thirds and have two thirds in now. Last third will go in at the aqua if it gets there. Aqua is last week low. Price...

Right now looking like this may be coming back above the low. If it does I will enter long on a retest. I am determined to see this through. I want to hold a trade for at least two days, three if it keeps going up.
  • #630
  • Feb 12, 2013 10:06am Feb 12, 2013 10:06am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Right now looking like this may be coming back above the low. If it does I will enter long on a retest. I am determined to see this through. I want to hold a trade for at least two days, three if it keeps going up.
Stopped out and long order pending.
  • #631
  • Feb 12, 2013 10:07am Feb 12, 2013 10:07am
Quoting Seneca pilot
An important part of Peter Crowns' method is that he does not move the stop to breakeven on the second half of the trade. He leaves it at the other end of the inside bar. This means that if you get 1/1 on your first half and the other goes back and stops out you will lose the spread. It also means that you will not be stopped out when price just tests the inside bar and then goes off to profit.

I want to restate my earlier thought that I don't believe this method has the same power it did years ago. We don't have the strong trends for many months....
  • #632
  • Feb 12, 2013 10:22am Feb 12, 2013 10:22am
I lost four percent today. This puts me down about one percent for the week. I am sure that if I make good trades later this week I will end up in profit by Friday.

So what's the point?

I made so many mistakes today it makes me sick to think about it. I have a million things going on outside trading. I am dealing with contractors every day on the new house. I am sick and can't stop coughing. My kids are sick and can't stop coughing. I am sleeping late while trying to trade and I am up early to handle the workers. I shouldn't be trading at all this week.

There is one mistake though that I haven't made. I have not revenge traded and I have not increased my lot sizes to try and get even. With all the mistakes and poor judgement I am only down one percent. The lesson is simple: control your risk and protect your capital, the profits will take care of themselves.
  • #633
  • Feb 12, 2013 12:19pm Feb 12, 2013 12:19pm
thanks for earlier reply on watching pairs super helpful. any good trader has to be flexible and dynamic.

perspective often opens up with hindsight so you can see now you are not fit but being under the weather with the flu can creep up on you and smother your awareness without any realisation about it. spend 2 mins before every trading day analysing yourself in respect to your fitness to trade. are you unwell? are you distracted? angry? how is your concentration? general awareness?

excellent job on controlling your revenge emotions. excellent composure and restraint considering that it has been lack of composure that's brought about the few mistakes.
  • #634
  • Feb 12, 2013 1:30pm Feb 12, 2013 1:30pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
The lesson is simple: control your risk and protect your capital, the profits will take care of themselves.
Exactly.

This again highlights the "3 M" formula (from Dr Alexander Elder's book (see pp 45-46)):

1. Method: The trader's formal entry/exit strategy must deliver positive pips, on balance, over time.
2. Money management: controlling risk and protecting capital (exactly as you say), through the use of small and consistent position sizes.
3. Mindset: the discipline, patience and nerve required for consistent execution.

Take care, my friend. I wish you and your family a speedy recovery from the coughing.
  • #635
  • Feb 12, 2013 2:53pm Feb 12, 2013 2:53pm
Hi,
Can someone please tell me what is the daily open time Seneca is using.
Is it GMT-5? I am in US-Eastern time zone. So is the daily open: Midnight E.T? for my time zone?

Thank you for your help.
Never Trade without a defined risk, never, never, never.
  • #636
  • Feb 12, 2013 2:59pm Feb 12, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting FxGladiator
Hi,
Can someone please tell me what is the daily open time Seneca is using.
Is it GMT-5? I am in US-Eastern time zone. So is the daily open: Midnight E.T? for my time zone?

Thank you for your help.
Yes, SP (and myself) uses Midnight EST 00:00 as daily open.
  • #637
  • Feb 12, 2013 4:11pm Feb 12, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I made so many mistakes today it makes me sick to think about it. I have a million things going on outside trading. I am dealing with contractors every day on the new house. I am sick and can't stop coughing. My kids are sick and can't stop coughing. I am sleeping late while trying to trade and I am up early to handle the workers. I shouldn't be trading at all this week.
Phewf, take it easy SP that sounds rough. I belive trading is a performance. You need life in balance and health to perform anything, arts, sport etc as well. Get well soon.
  • #638
  • Edited 10:23pm Feb 12, 2013 4:42pm | Edited 10:23pm
Thanks everyone for the kind thoughts. I don't get colds very often but when I do they are bad. I spent Saturday in bed but I can't slow down unfortunately, too much going on. Movers will take the furniture to the new house on Thursday. After that and a long weekend unpacking I will be able to rest a bit and get well. Taking my medicine and sleeping when possible.

If I have a decent trading night this evening I will probably quit trading for the week and resume on Monday night. I think I have decided to open the trade explorer, I have to ask a couple of people their opinion and am trying to locate some trade mirror software that will allow me to customize which types of trades I want to show. I do some intraday breakout stuff that I have not gone into here and I am not sure I want to.

I don't think a TE would really help anyone following the thread but there is a pretty good chance it will help me. I don't think I would have had the lapse in discipline I did last night with a public record of my trading. I'd be too embarrased.

What do you guys think?
  • #639
  • Feb 12, 2013 4:44pm Feb 12, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting FxGladiator
Hi,
Can someone please tell me what is the daily open time Seneca is using.
Is it GMT-5? I am in US-Eastern time zone. So is the daily open: Midnight E.T? for my time zone?

Thank you for your help.
Yes, as Olarion said that is the time I use. I have found it to be the most reliable. Typically around 55-60% for at least 2/1.
  • #640
  • Feb 12, 2013 4:48pm Feb 12, 2013 4:48pm
I can't comment in TE. As for public trade records, I agree with Van Tharp = as soon as you publically declare a view, your ego is invested in it being right. Hard to break... Either way, we live and die by the sword so losses are not embarassing, not following one's method can be aggravating but we're human not robots. I always put periods like that down to being an outlet. I know I can't eliminate my dumb stuff, just make sure it's not too damaging.
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