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Euro/Dollar

  • #3,241
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:15am Feb 12, 2013 9:15am
Halkins, an update for you on the Euro:

We had 1.3410 support and long entry. 1.3510 is the threshold I am looking at.

If we move above 1.3510 price could just keep moving straight up. Also, after moving above 1.3510, IF price moves lower again into the 1.3360 area, that should hold, but I don't think we are going to see again 1.3360.
Hope this is clear. In tonight's video it will be clearer.

On EUR/USD we currently have targets at 1.3492. This target has been confirmed with price piercing the 1.3444 on the upside.

Good luck
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,242
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:47am Feb 12, 2013 9:47am
A quick update on the USD/CAD because I think it could have already started an interesting move lower. But there is still the possibility to participate in it:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360683558

The 1.0030-40 area is a significant resistance area for the USD/CAD. In case of renewed Dollar weakness we could see a move lower, into 0.9960 at least.

As usual, my scenarios:

Scenario 1. Price keeps moving lower past the 0.9980 level and trades into the 0.9960 support area

Scenario 2. Price moves into the 1.0010 support area and moves higher into the 1.0030-40 resistance again. From there the move lower can start. The initial target is the same 0.9960.

Notice that the big 1.0040 resistance level has targets below at the 0.94s...

Later on I will record a video and post it on my Blog in which I will analyze the 4-hour chart as well...

Let me know your thoughts.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,243
  • Feb 13, 2013 3:03am Feb 13, 2013 3:03am
Good morning all,
a quick update on the 4-hour chart of the Euro FX currency futures:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360745712

The 1.3480 area is still acting as a resistance on the Euro FX currency futures. I need to see price above this level.

I need to see the price of the Euro above the 1.3510 level. Above this area we can have a reasonable certainty that bears on the daily timeframe will have been gone to, so there is no more interest in selling the Euro.
Until that happen a retest and break of 1.3360 is still possible, unfortunately.

PS: the related video-analysis is on my blog

Have a profitable day.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,244
  • Feb 14, 2013 5:32am Feb 14, 2013 5:32am
Hey Crassius, Tomspin, other fellas
did you guys take any holidays?

OK.
1.32800-1.32600 This is the level (zone) I was targeting Monday or Tuesday this week. And this is where the price is heading now, before further acceleration, IMO.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post6438630

Mr. market made me a prank and broke an old and very solid resistance line and only to create a new one after couple of hours.
Well, he’s the boss :-)
For now, I can't see any other scenario then this one below, though "Unemployment Figures" this afternoon may change the whole picture.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurousd.gif Size: 31 KB
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  • #3,245
  • Feb 14, 2013 6:43am Feb 14, 2013 6:43am
Afternoon
No holidays, I decided to not post untill I have a proper account, trading demo doesn't help your creditibility in this place, even if you are right about the market, so I am officialy out of FF as contributor, wish you all good luck and many green pips.
Au revoir
swing it!
  • #3,246
  • Feb 14, 2013 7:08am Feb 14, 2013 7:08am
Quoting tomspin
Afternoon
No holidays, I decided to not post untill I have a proper account, trading demo doesn't help your creditibility in this place, even if you are right about the market, so I am officialy out of FF as contributor, wish you all good luck and many green pips.
Au revoir

Heh... It sounds like an official ECB statement...
Set up proper account and get back to the game
cheers,,,

And here's a quicky update on eurodollar;
Inserted Video
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  • #3,247
  • Feb 14, 2013 8:09am Feb 14, 2013 8:09am
Hello,
an update on the daily chart for the Euro FX futures:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360850556

The iffy 1.3360 level did not hold and it is now possible for the Euro to keep moving lower into the 1.3200 area. We go back to Friday the 8th scenario.

There are two possible moves unfolding in my opinion:

Scenario 1. Price moves into the 1.3200 area and then starts its move higher into the 1.39s

Scenario 2. Price breaks the 1.3200 area and bounces in the next extension short around 1.3230 (this level may slighly change) only to continue lower into 1.2900

I will record a video later on.
Safe trading.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,248
  • Feb 14, 2013 10:48am Feb 14, 2013 10:48am
Good afternoon,

here is an update on the Dollar Index trading plan on the daily timeframe aligned to what we could see in the Euro.
Pls, let me have your ideas and comments.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360859352

The Dollar Index held the 79.90 extension long on the daily yesterday and it is currently trading the related support area at 80. This long setup with stop below 79.80, has two targets above at 80.70 (1st target) and then 81.30 (2nd target).

If the Dollar Index keeps trading in extension as it does in its moves higher (the Euro correspondingly moves lower in extension shorts) the next support (after/if traded second target at 81.30) would be at 80.90, with a stop (failure level) below 80.80. Such a further long setup could bring price to targets at 81.50 (1st target area) and then 81.80 (2nd and last target area).

If the Dollar Index gets to the 81.80 area that would be within the old level and area of resistance in the 81.70s. If price gets there and then starts moving lower, a confirmation of a new short would come with price below 81.50.

The violation of the indicated levels as/if we move higher, provide indication for the bearish scenarios/setups. I will use this analysis to help understanding when the current EUR/USD short will end.

Let me know the views on your charts.
Thank you.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,249
  • Feb 14, 2013 5:29pm Feb 14, 2013 5:29pm
Fib or anyone know if there is a simple way to detect a false move wave 1 in EW terms usually you know when W2 retracement outtakes W1 plus the retracement of that one lower low however by that time the market has moved 15-25 points in 1 direction. I use volume but cant seem to understand when there is an authentic move from a false move?
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  • #3,250
  • Feb 15, 2013 4:15am Feb 15, 2013 4:15am
Hello Pipanator,
I don't use EW but a different system based on Program Trading rules. In this system a move in one direction in a specific timeframe ends when the sequence of measured moves in that direction fails, which means that the setup of the next measured move in the sequence is not respected, i.e. the stop-loss is hit. When that happens program trading starts trading on the opposite side on that timeframe. Program trading trades in the same way on all the timeframes, so overall price is the interaction of all these actions on all timeframes. Failure of series of measured moves are specific levels that I would not be able to relate to EW because I don't use it.
I have some articles on Program Trading on my blog, just google my nickname.
Hope this helps.
Cheers
G.



Quoting Pipanator
Fib or anyone know if there is a simple way to detect a false move wave 1 in EW terms usually you know when W2 retracement outtakes W1 plus the retracement of that one lower low however by that time the market has moved 15-25 points in 1 direction. I use volume but cant seem to understand when there is an authentic move from a false move?
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,251
  • Feb 15, 2013 4:15am Feb 15, 2013 4:15am
Good Morning,
this is my updated analysis and view on the Euro FX currency futures.
Let me know your ideas, thoughts, comments and what you see on your charts...

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360921075

The Euro very probably started a move lower into the 1.2900 area. Program trading is currently selling the 1.3390 area using the 1.3480 anchor.

For short-term traders the immediate targets are lower at the 1.3280 area (1st) and 1.3220 (2nd), or right into 1.3200 support area.

Retraces to add to swing shorts could come in the 1.3250 (area a) after a bounce off the 1.3200 support area, or below it around the 1.3210 area after a bounce from the 100-day SMA (area b).

I believe the Euro has targets in the 1.2840-1.2900 area before a move higher can resume.

Let me know your thoughts.

PS: I have recorded a video for the day of today where I show the analysis on the daily chart

Thank you
Trade safe, is Friday.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,252
  • Feb 19, 2013 6:50am Feb 19, 2013 6:50am
Hello all,
Who knows, maybe we will finally exit this 4-day sideways action (bear flag at low) today...

On the 4-hour chart, the Euro FX futures has resistance at 1.3380 area with a stop above 1.3405 and 1st target down at 1.3270s. If we reach the first short target the Euro has the potential to revisit 1.2900 imho.

Good luck
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,253
  • Feb 20, 2013 11:22am Feb 20, 2013 11:22am
Hello traders,


Euro very iffy and dodgy, but still short imho.

Here's my updated view on the 4-hour chart:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361380460

The 1.3530 area of resistance and short selling never traded (too big of a front-run), but program trading participation has evidently pushed price lower. The 1.3540 area of setup has targets in the 1.3270 area (1st target) and the 1.3130 area (2nd target)

The 1.3276 level is a very important level to monitor. It being pierced on the downside would open up the possibility of a retrace all the way into the 1.2900 area of support, which I have been now anticipating since some time (find the reason in Feb 8th video). Notice that the first target of the current short setup in the 4-hour timeframe in the 1.3410 area is below that 1.3276 level. So if the current setup in the 4-hour chart reaches the already confirmed 1st target, we could continue much lower (into 1.2900).

With the violation of the 1.3350 level on the downside we should no longer see strong interest from bulls in the 4-hour timeframe. However we could still see a retrace onto the 1.3360-90 area. We can still have a retrace up to the 1.3380 area but the move lower should then resume.

If the move continues lower it could meet the 100-day SMA at the 1.3130 area. There we could get a bounce into the 1.3215-45 or even 1.3260 area before a continuation lower into the 1.29s.

I am going to publish a video review on the Euro-dollar later on.

Trade safe.
Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,254
  • Feb 21, 2013 11:50am Feb 21, 2013 11:50am
Hello all,
my updated view on the Euro FX currency futures:

Yesterday evening the Euro FX pierced the 1.3276 level that we were closely watching and that decreed the opportunity of a larger move into the 1.2900 area. Indeed, the market continue lower and the selling resumed during the Asian session.
The Euro also hit the first target in the 1.3270 area and is now headed into the 1.3130, where we could get a bounce.
http://elitefive.files.wordpress.com...ng?w=650&h=373
Euro FX futures contract, 4-hour chart – February 21st, 2013

The plan is the same as yesterday (see above picture). If the relative lows are in at the 1.3474 level (due to an inner traditional move) we could see a retrace into the 1.3240 to 1.3300 area before the move lower can resume.
The target is now confirmed at 1.2900 and it is just a matter of how and when price can get there. This could happen in the coming two weeks.


The video-analysis is on the Blog.
Trade safe.
Cheers
G.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,255
  • Feb 21, 2013 12:15pm Feb 21, 2013 12:15pm
Hello,
this is a comparison I made between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Let me know what you think.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361469514

There is a major difference on the daily chart which can be spot analyzing the two charts compared above. Price action of both charts is the same but; while the Euro failed the next move higher, showing a Euro that is going to weaken faster than the Japanese yen in the coming days,that did not happen to the USD/JPY. So that means that bulls are not interested too buy the EUR/JPY pair at this stage (see below), while they could still be involved in long positions in the USD/JPY pair.

The USD/JPY pair (see picture above) did not fail the current long extension setup. Above the 91.60 level longs are still valid with a 1st target at the 94.90 area (scenario 1). The scenario 2. for the USD/JPY would develop if price falls below the 91.60 level. In that case we could see a move into the next level of support down at the 89.40 area.

As anticipated, the main difference between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is that the latter failed the extension long. That happened the very moment price moved below the 123.30 level on Friday last week.The price is now in scenario 1, moving in traditional shorts with resistance between 125.30-125.80. First target is down at 121.80. Scenario 2 would kick if price would not bbounce off the next support level at 119.60 which lines up to the 2nd target in the 119.90 area. In that case, we could see a continued move lower.

The level of support on the EUR/JPY pair will be identified when the EUR/USD pair will also find support. I anticipate this support will come at 1.2900. Both USD/JOY and EUR/JPY could find their support when that happens.

More in my mid-week update.
Let me know what you think.
Thank you
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,256
  • Feb 21, 2013 1:57pm Feb 21, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting fibstalker
my updated view on the Euro FX currency futures:

The target is now confirmed at 1.2900 and it is just a matter of how and when price can get there. This could happen in the coming two weeks.
I read you last 3 major euro updates since our last conversation, and you have been way off target with your certainties. What happened with the guarantee 1.385x, the 1.355x and now is short confirmed to 1.290xx... Don't get me wrong mate, I think you are doing a decent job with your charts and analysis, however you may be suffering from the Analyst Syndrome which can be a massive killer for trading.

My 2 cents, is nice to write potential scenarios but they are maybe too late, too out of sync with initial FA (I know you hate FA but thats the price you pay when ignoring this with such a wide swings) and TA triggers and definitively too static for taking advantage in real trading. In simple words, it only looks fantastic in static charts when the move is +/- in the middle of the road so you are always having too many "ifs" and your targets, although some are valid IMO, they are way out the daily range....

In any case, GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #3,257
  • Feb 21, 2013 5:07pm Feb 21, 2013 5:07pm
Hello Sisse,
I appreciate your comments. I am still making money with my swing traders and yes my analysis is not 100% sure. No one is. However some people are also making money helped by my calls. I said that below 1.3276, 1.2900 would be almost certain. They are still 300+ pips more. The market will be easier to trade in the future, it is always difficult when it changes.

No willing to be 100% right, find someone who... my targets are always swing targets and they work quite well.Check it out.
Sisse I am happy with my analysis and trading, and know a few people are too.
I don't think anyone can feel comfortable with what I do. Indeed, I give less importance to swings once I am well placed, and this happens 1 or 2 time a month. That is okay for me... I know what I am trading and I stick to rules. Sometimes I may miss that a level has traded and will need to review my analysis.

Thanks for your comments and your suggestions. I am making money and I am perfecting things. And this is enough for me. I hope you are making money too with your method. I suggest you wait and see for 6 months or a year.
Lots of people here in FF are short-termed, well I try to look at wider swings.
We may have a very good opportunity down at 1.2900 area (or slightly below) for a run to 1.4100 maybe somewhen in the summer. I am interested to these types of moves. And I can lose a % of my account timing to get a +300% in 6 months.

Thank you Sisse, your comments are highly appreciated.
I would like you to keep watching my analysis and tell me more in 3 or 6 months.

GL
ciao
G.


Quoting sisse
I read you last 3 major euro updates since our last conversation, and you have been way off target with your certainties. What happened with the guarantee 1.385x, the 1.355x and now is short confirmed to 1.290xx... Don't get me wrong mate, I think you are doing a decent job with your charts and analysis, however you may be suffering from the Analyst Syndrome which can be a massive killer for trading.

My 2 cents, is nice to write potential scenarios but they are maybe too late, too out of sync with initial FA (I know you hate FA but thats the...
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,258
  • Feb 22, 2013 2:44am Feb 22, 2013 2:44am
GM Sisse,
just wanted to add that FF is not the first place I post to. I have a Blog, as you know, and a free newsletter where I provide information with better timing. I am offering everything for free so cannot be always on time. But a lot of swing setups are offered well before they happen.
Have a great weekend.
Ciao


Quoting sisse
I read you last 3 major euro updates since our last conversation, and you have been way off target with your certainties. What happened with the guarantee 1.385x, the 1.355x and now is short confirmed to 1.290xx... Don't get me wrong mate, I think you are doing a decent job with your charts and analysis, however you may be suffering from the Analyst Syndrome which can be a massive killer for trading.

My 2 cents, is nice to write potential scenarios but they are maybe too late, too out of sync with initial FA (I know you hate FA but thats the...
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,259
  • Feb 22, 2013 2:44am Feb 22, 2013 2:44am
GM,
EUR/USD now showing resistance at 1.3230.This will be confirmed below 1.3210. This resistance/short setup has targets below at 1.3130and then 1.3070. Price on its way onto the 1.2900 swing target.

Trade safe, it's Friday.
Ciao
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,260
  • Feb 22, 2013 5:09am Feb 22, 2013 5:09am
Quoting sisse
I read you last 3 major euro updates since our last conversation, and you have been way off target with your certainties. What happened with the guarantee 1.385x, the 1.355x and now is short confirmed to 1.290xx... Don't get me wrong mate, I think you are doing a decent job with your charts and analysis, however you may be suffering from the Analyst Syndrome which can be a massive killer for trading.
(...)
sisse
Hi sisse.
I don’t quite agree with you.
I do write my new scenario every morning and I think it is essential to have a plan before I click BUY or SELL.
One day I am bearish, next I could be bullish. 24 hours bring so many news that sentiment can change two or three times in a day…
One morning all the targets seem to be a matter of hours, the next one it’s completely unrealistic.
It happens quite often that the plan does not work, it does for me, but you know what to do..., you must have a plan…

by the way.... what is "Analyst Syndrome"?
cheers...
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