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95% trades posted on Forex Factory are winners. What happens?

  • #81
  • Feb 10, 2013 1:22pm Feb 10, 2013 1:22pm
"... Why there are so many winners posted on those threads? "

The same reason behind why there are so many unsuccesful traders who doesn't like losing trade. Inability to accept the flaws of their trading systems killed them.
No Ego, No Money, No Emotion Involved.
  • #82
  • Feb 10, 2013 3:16pm Feb 10, 2013 3:16pm

Quoting Xhale12
LOL at this whole thread.
Never laugh at anyone's dreams. "Dalai Lama"
  • #83
  • Edited 4:16pm Feb 10, 2013 3:48pm | Edited 4:16pm
Quoting BellaVista
I have brought up things such as "drawdown, leverage, equity, etc. Which you have in no way responded to. ..... That is one of the most commonly used phrases by someone who lacks the ability of countering discussion of drawdown, leverage, equity, etc. ......
I will no longer respond nor read any of your messages. As a matter of fact your on the ignore list for being so naive as to what your actually doing in forex.
Since BellaVista has put me on ignore, he won't be reading this.

But for the benefit of any newcomers who are following this thread, the money management and leverage exhibited in his Trade Explorer is a perfect example of how NOT to approach forex, and I'll explain why.

He is trading an account with equity of < $500. Within three days, he has increased his position size from 0.01 lots to 1.5 lots, a 150x increase. It's important to be consistent in one's position sizes, because everything else being equal, all valid setups have a similar probability of success. By varying position sizes, he is merely playing a lucky game of hit or miss, where one win can erase many losses, or one loss can erase many wins. In my opinion, varying parameters without statistical justification for doing so is a form of gambling.

Secondly, trading 1.5 lot positions on a < $500 account is massively overleveraged. This is illustrated by losses of 26.1%, 26.9% and 27.1% in three of his individual trades. If he happens to encounter more than 3 consecutive losses at that size, the drawdown will be virtually irretrievable. This is exacerbated by the fact that he is scalping (average trade time = 8 minutes), hence the costs (spreads+commissions, whatever is applicable) are proportionally greater: for example, if you're looking at trading 100 pip moves, a 2 pip spread represents a 2% edge that you must overcome; whereas if you're trading 10 pip moves, it's a 20% edge against you. To justify safely risking more than 20% equity per trade, you'd need an impossibly high win rate. BV has currently won 22 out of 38 trades; a win rate of ~58%. Now check the table attached to this post — the probability of 3 consecutive losses within any 50 trade sequence, given a 60% win rate, is around 96%. Hence he has a 96% probability of achieving irretrievable drawdown within his next 50 trades. Is that tantamount to gambling? You decide.

The formula for sizing works as follows:
size_in_lots = (%equity_to_risk / 100) x account_equity / pips_from_entry_to_SL / dollars_per_pip_moved

Since dollars_per_pip_moved = $10 for any xxxUSD pair, and assuming (for example) pips_from_entry_to_SL = 10 for a scalper, then a position size of 0.1 lots would represent a 2% equity risk, which is acceptable, according to the textbooks. Whereas a size of 1.5 lots represents an equity risk of ~30%.

For more info on lots, leverage, margin etc, see my post here.

I've started reading BellaVista's thread on 1 minute chart formations, and IMO there are some plausible ideas there that might be worthy of testing. But even the best strategy in the world has minimal chance of success (beyond an incredible amount of luck) if one is taking losses of > 25% equity per trade. Again, this highlights the importance of conservative MM in trading.
  • #84
  • Feb 10, 2013 3:55pm Feb 10, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting BellaVista
I'll send you 500 usd just to see your trade explorer. You great with words, but I am 1000% sure your horrible with numbers.
I see you've already taken down the trade explorer you had up Friday with the 83% drawdown in five weeks. How many different accounts do you need to run to find one with a profit to show all the noobs you say you are helping?
  • #85
  • Feb 10, 2013 3:57pm Feb 10, 2013 3:57pm
Patience.
MM.
Follow the plan.
Never laugh at anyone's dreams. "Dalai Lama"
  • #86
  • Feb 10, 2013 3:59pm Feb 10, 2013 3:59pm
Quoting dalaipip


Never laugh at anyone's dreams.
"Dalai Lama"
...........
//----

I dream my painting, and then I paint my dreams. - Vincent van Gogh


similar to trading......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #87
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:07pm Feb 10, 2013 4:07pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I see you've already taken down the trade explorer you had up Friday with the 83% drawdown in five weeks. How many different accounts do you need to run to find one with a profit to show all the noobs you say you are helping?
I haven't taken down my account. I actually haven't even touched the trade explorer settings. I'm only running one account, which all the people following my thread can verify. Take a chance and read through the thread. You may learn a few things. Like how I can post negative pip gain, but Positive cash return. I'm pretty sure you won't be able to explain how that is possible.
  • #88
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:10pm Feb 10, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting Gumrai
Many if not most systems have as part of the rules
Time of day to trade
Not to trade on holidays
Don't trade near important news times
Don't trade if price has moved so far in that direction already.
Don't trade if success requires break of a round number.
They are easy to follow rules and part of the system.

A historical S/R area/line may or may not be so easy to spot, so this could be one of the ways that traders; discretion can make a profitable system more profitable.



You are probably right, most of my trading is disretional, but this is...
OMG.......there is just no point in talking to you at all is there?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #89
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:14pm Feb 10, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting BellaVista
I haven't taken down my account. I actually haven't even touched the trade explorer settings. I'm only running one account, which all the people following my thread can verify. Take a chance and read through the thread. You may learn a few things. Like how I can post negative pip gain, but Positive cash return. I'm pretty sure you won't be able to explain how that is possible.
I understand exactly how to make a profit at this as it pays my bills every month. In my experience when someone like you comes onto this forum with few posts and attacking respected members it is just a matter of time before you start marketing your superior skills through the use of the PM system. Your trade explorer was -83% Friday after the market closed and it is now different. Personally I don't care what you think and I am certainly not learning anything from you. The money management you use in your trade explorer is suicidal and I sincerely hope you don't suck in too many new traders with your BS.
  • #90
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:20pm Feb 10, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I understand exactly how to make a profit at this as it pays my bills every month. In my experience when someone like you comes onto this forum with few posts and attacking respected members it is just a matter of time before you start marketing your superior skills through the use of the PM system. Your trade explorer was -83% Friday after the market closed and it is now different. Personally I don't care what you think and I am certainly not learning anything from you. The money management you use in your trade explorer is suicidal and I sincerely...
Well I'm glad you admit that you have a problem with learning. That thread is very easy to understand, and everything is given for free No pm have been sent to promote anything at all. You are referring to my money management is that correct? Well please explain how someone with such poor money management hasn't blown his account during the most volatile week of trading of 2013? I unlike you am not afraid of posting my failures, and winning positions. You have the slightest clue of money management which is why you refer to it so generally. Money management is calculated directly with the system which one uses. So to not have learned anything from me. How could you possibility judge my money management? I invite you to upload your account (even if it is demo) and out preform me % wise. If you can do that, I'll send you 500usd via moneybookers. I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
  • #91
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:21pm Feb 10, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting BellaVista
how I can post negative pip gain, but Positive cash return. I'm pretty sure you won't be able to explain how that is possible.
//----

sounds like a swap factor....

on the flip side, quite a few of my losses were closed 50 pip positive, but the trade still was overall a loser..... i call it bad timing.....

swap can be your friend or foe......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #92
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:26pm Feb 10, 2013 4:26pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
comes onto this forum with few posts and attacking respected members it is just a matter of time before you start marketing your superior skills through the use of the PM system.
Please find one post in which I referred to one (respected) member by name. All I simply mentioned was the posters with 4k+ post are more concentrated on blogging, then actually trading. That is revealed in them not having a trade explorer (which allows you to criticize everything from risk/money management), or even revealing what their entry, exit, or sl is. All you see them say is +60 or +80... How does that qualify as a respected member? Unless your going to use the defense that he/she is a good person and dear friend. Now we are coming to forex communities to find friends and love. That alone shows you how horrible your trading actually is.
  • #93
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:31pm Feb 10, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting BellaVista
Well I'm glad you admit that you have a problem with learning. That thread is very easy to understand, and everything is given for free No pm have been sent to promote anything at all. You are referring to my money management is that correct? Well please explain how someone with such poor money management hasn't blown his account during the most volatile week of trading of 2013? I unlike you am not afraid of posting my failures, and winning positions. You have the slightest clue of money management which is why you refer to it so generally. Money...
I don't have any demo accounts. I have three live ones. One for income which is six figures. One for investment which is high five figures. and one for simulations and new methods which is about 150.00. As I already posted earlier in this thread I will never put my real accounts in TE even using a read only password. I don't care the encryption I won't take the risk. If you read my thread you will see that I post my losers and winners. I have seen your trade explorer and your account will never survive. Your losers are too big. As I said and you failed to address how did your explorer go from a 83% drawdown from a 2K+ balance on Friday evening to now a gain on a much smaller balance if you didn't change it. You're full of BS.
  • #94
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:34pm Feb 10, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting hayseed
//----

sounds like a swap factor....

on the flip side, quite a few of my losses were closed 50 pip positive, but the trade still was overall a loser..... i call it bad timing.....

swap can be your friend or foe......h
Absolutely nothing to do with swap factor. Have a look see at my trades to verify. In case you lack the ability of doing so. I'll explain how. I use 1m charts as explained in that thread. A basic crossing of a MA line. Once the MA line is crossed I take the high and low of that line. On every cross of either the high/low of the line I take my position. My first position always being 1 dollar per point. On a recross I close the 1 dollar per point position and open maybe a 5 dollar position. If the second entry fails, then I'll open a 10 dollar a point position. As in most cases, the first 2 orders of a MA cross or recross are fake outs. Which is why you increase lot sizes with every cross. All entries have a stop loss of between 5 to 10 points. So say I'm looking for a 5 point tp. If i lose on the first two orders 5 points. I would be down 10 points, but no more then .5% of my total account. As the third cross is the high probability trade of gaining 5 points before losing 5 points I may simply gain 3 points, but it covers my loss maybe 2 to 3 fold. At times I may jump the gun, and place a 1.00 lot size wager on my first trade. Which of course almost always results in a loss. Yet I say that to say this. Without knowing ones system. You can not possibly logically judge ones money management. Not saying that was something you have done. Yet, reading the thread will inform you exactly how your entry should be filled. I also use pending orders to catch swift reversals once the high, and low has been established.
  • #95
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:37pm Feb 10, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting BellaVista
Please find one post in which I referred to one (respected) member by name. All I simply mentioned was the posters with 4k+ post are more concentrated on blogging, then actually trading. That is revealed in them not having a trade explorer (which allows you to criticize everything from risk/money management), or even revealing what their entry, exit, or sl is. All you see them say is +60 or +80... How does that qualify as a respected member? Unless your going to use the defense that he/she is a good person and dear friend. Now we are coming to forex...
You can see the screenshots of my trades on my thread, winners and losers. I can assure you though My losers don't draw my account down fifteen or twenty percent. I have given details on my entry methods, stop, and target rules. I have also given guidance to traders on how the market actually works and how to survive long enough to learn to trade. The only thing you are showing traders is how to overleverage and blow accounts. SAD.
  • #96
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:38pm Feb 10, 2013 4:38pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I don't have any demo accounts. I have three live ones. One for income which is six figures. One for investment which is high five figures. and one for simulations and new methods which is about 150.00. As I already posted earlier in this thread I will never put my real accounts in TE even using a read only password. I don't care the encryption I won't take the risk. If you read my thread you will see that I post my losers and winners. I have seen your trade explorer and your account will never survive. Your losers are too big. As I said and you...
Well from your response. It is clear to see your a demo trade. No way possible even if you use your read only password can someone even place a trade in your account. Your full of B.S. as now you have a six figure income. How does that equate to your trading?(Sounds like you have an ego issue) As for my account, the trade explorer is exactly the same. It is the same account with the very same trades. The balance is exactly the same as it was on friday. So I'm not sure what it is your referring to.
  • #97
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:39pm Feb 10, 2013 4:39pm
Quoting BellaVista
Like how I can post negative pip gain, but Positive cash return. I'm pretty sure you won't be able to explain how that is possible.
There aren't too many possible reasons. It's most likely the result of inconsistent position sizes (see my previous post). Another potential red flag.

A system that's unable to generate a positive 'raw' pip count will eventually fail; an edge can only come from a profitable entry/exit strategy. For a good mathematical proof that MM can't alter expectancy, see PipMeUp's post.
  • #98
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:40pm Feb 10, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting BellaVista
Absolutely nothing to do with swap factor. Have a look see at my trades to verify. In case you lack the ability of doing so. I'll explain how. I use 1m charts as explained in that thread. A basic crossing of a MA line. Once the MA line is crossed I take the high and low of that line. On every cross of either the high/low of the line I take my position. My first position always being 1 dollar per point. On a recross I close the 1 dollar per point position and open maybe a 5 dollar position. If the second entry fails, then I'll open a 10 dollar a...
We don't have to judge your money management. You just described using a martingale system. Been proved a million times martingale always blows up.
  • #99
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:40pm Feb 10, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
You can see the screenshots of my trades on my thread, winners and losers. I can assure you though My losers don't draw my account down fifteen or twenty percent. I have given details on my entry methods, stop, and target rules. I have also given guidance to traders on how the market actually works and how to survive long enough to learn to trade. The only thing you are showing traders is how to overleverage and blow accounts. SAD.
I'm sorry. Do you know how many people have gone to jail for manipulating with photo shop monthly statements. If you can simply take the time to post all of your entry, exit, etc. You can do the same with trade explorer. You save yourself many valuable seconds of typing things, which you will later edit when it doesn't go your way.
  • #100
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:42pm Feb 10, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
We don't have to judge your money management. You just described using a martingale system. Been proved a million times martingale always blows up.
Oh really a million times huh? Well let us see how it works this time around. Much easier to be pessimistic then it is to be realistic. Instead of giving a GENERAL example of martingale ALWAYS blowing up. Why not post some charts which will reveal that. Don't be lazy my friend. If you have the time to post to everyone one of my replies. You should have time to disprove it with actual charts.
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