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95% trades posted on Forex Factory are winners. What happens?

  • #61
  • Feb 9, 2013 9:44pm Feb 9, 2013 9:44pm
Quoting Gumrai
Simple answer to your sickness....
Stop repeating yourself
You see, this is your opinion. Because it is your opinion, it doesn't make it true. Repeating yourself 10 times still doesn't make it true.

You keep saying that a TE will only prove that the thread starter of a system makes profit from the system.
You completely ignore the possibility that a TE could also show that the threadstarter is unable to make a profit or that he/she is nowhere near as succesful as he/she implies.
A trading system is a complete trading strategy. If it is claimed...

Leave real jumper alone. He is stuck in his ways and will forever be a forex factory 10k poster, then a person trying to earn 10k in a year from forex. Pessimism is a characteristic of almost 100% of these 5k+ posters.
  • #62
  • Feb 9, 2013 9:48pm Feb 9, 2013 9:48pm
hey peter..... if it means so much, and i can figure out how, i'll allow you limited access to my explorer..... i did this once before, both here and at ibfx connect...... you would not believe the pm's , emails and requests that followed..... had to put a end to it all...... after all, just a hayseed here nothing more......

i've had only 1 loss in the past 30 some days.... it was only due to negative spread..... my only real losses that amount to anything in the last 5 months were those gbpusd trades that i pointed out specifically earlier in that chart......

will answer no questions...... well, let me rephrase that...... ask me no questions and i'll tell you no lies.............h

//----
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #63
  • Feb 9, 2013 11:24pm Feb 9, 2013 11:24pm
Quoting BellaVista
The most important underlining fact is how much % change you are able to earn. Take drawdown for example. That is one of the most overrated stats used in forex. I say that because money management plays an important role in how its calculate. Say a person uses 1% equity. A person who uses such low equity will never have a high drawdown. Yet, if you look at the points which they lose. Its more then half of eur/usd YEARLY RANGE. So is it worse to hold a position for 500 point loss, or experience a 50% drawdown only to never blow your account and...
I think you misunderstand what is meant by longevity. It's not necessarily about holding trades open for several months. It's about long term survival and success as a trader, regardless of the holding period. There are scalpers who risk 1% equity per trade. It is very possible to trade at that level of risk, and still attain high drawdown, but obviously the smaller the position sizing, the slower the bleed.

Anyway, any misunderstandings aside, treating drawdown as irrelevant, and overleveraging yourself to the point where you can potentially make 50% in a week, or 300% profit in a month, is a sure-fire way of ensuring that you WON'T achieve long term survival, let alone success.

When you talk about withdrawing profit, and make comments like "outperformed 100% of us who trade", I guess you mean using forex purely as a vehicle for gambling. Hence we are talking about two very different approaches. Good luck.
  • #64
  • Feb 9, 2013 11:39pm Feb 9, 2013 11:39pm
Quoting BellaVista
Leave real jumper alone. He is stuck in his ways and will forever be a forex factory 10k poster, then a person trying to earn 10k in a year from forex. Pessimism is a characteristic of almost 100% of these 5k+ posters.
pull your head in. you come-across as one of these gun-ho "come on guys let's help each other and we can be rich and change the world" types who blows a live account in public and then expects admiration for it. it's quite simple... amongst a group of retards the ones who at least have the sense to put a pair of pants on correctly get just that little bit more 'respect' than those who are walking around with their pants on their heads.

your words are hollow and lacking merit.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #65
  • Feb 9, 2013 11:50pm Feb 9, 2013 11:50pm
Quoting realjumper
The only 'sickness here is your bitterness and your repeated attacks on me......take caution in your attitude.
MY attitude?? Repeated attacks?
I am disagreeing with you, so you see that as me attacking you?
Do you really see bitterness in my posts?

Quoting gumrai
A trading system is a complete trading strategy. If it is claimed to be succesful, then it should make profit for the trader by following the system rules. The trader's discretion may possibly make the system even more profitable, but the system should be profitable without discretion.

No, your bitterness is getting in your way....yet again. Try and read this slowly......if a given system was profitable by following strict rules with ZERO discretion, then an EA would work flawlessly......and this FACT can not be denied. However, the reason...
You added the bolded section above when you quoted my post. It was not written by me. I have no experience with EAs and have never commented on them.
Not sure what you are trying to say here, but I agree with you on this point. A system that is profitable by following strict rules could be traded by an EA profitably

Note your use of " ..yet again. Try and read this slowly..." you regularly use such phrases and yet you accuse me of being the one with attitude!

Quoting realjumper
Absolute nonsense. All systems, bar none, require a traders discretion, stop being so naive and/or bitter. All the while you carry on with this childish attitude, you are just digging the whole deeper and deeper for yourself. I suggest you stop this crusade of bitterness and accept that you have not (yet) learnt how to apply discretion to your trading.

More chart time and less forum surfing is my advice to you.
There you go again......
"Absolute nonsense."
"naive and/or bitter"
"childish attitude"
"crusade of bitterness"

You see all of this simply because my opinion differs from yours?

You should understand that this is a forum for discussion. Different posters may have different opinions and POV.
If my opinion is different to yours and I disagree with you, it has nothing to do with bitterness, nor is it an attack on you.

I am sure that it is only me that sees your reply has more than a hint of bitterness and aggressiveness!
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #66
  • Feb 10, 2013 12:00am Feb 10, 2013 12:00am
Quoting Gumrai
MY attitude?? Repeated attacks?
I am disagreeing with you, so you see that as me attacking you?
Do you really see bitterness in my posts?



You added the bolded section above when you quoted my post. It was not written by me. I have no experience with EAs and have never commented on them.
Not sure what you are trying to say here, but I agree with you on this point. A system that is profitable by following strict rules could be traded by an EA profitably

Note your use of " ..yet again. Try and read this slowly..." you regularly use such...
The bolded quote was my mistake.....sorry. It was directed at you, not from you.....this is a mistake that can happen when trying to respond point ofr point to your comments.

What you fail to understand, and I'm really sick and tired of you and your nonsense, is that you don't discuss.......you make statements......and when those statements are completely wrong, as in "systems don't need discretion", I WILL correct you and I don't care whether you like it or not. it is a FACT.....a FACT.....the some level of discretion is required in EVERY SYSTEM.......in EVERY SYSTEM. Got it yet?

Now.....your opinion may well differ from mine and you are well entitled to your opinion. I WILL however, correct you when you state as a fact, something that is not.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #67
  • Edited 1:24am Feb 10, 2013 12:22am | Edited 1:24am
Quoting PeterE
I agree with this.

But if someone is going to claim it, then verify it. Because the fact is 99.6% in retail forex are bullsh!ters.

Knowing this, it is prudent that any wanting to learn from another should first verify the skills claimed.

Why? Because it's far better to learn from someone in the 0.4% group than someone pretending.

Why this logic is lost on most is perplexing.
Well, fair enough Peter, I do understand where you're coming from, but a couple of points in reply:

1. For me personally, the acquisition of solid testable ideas and strategies is more important than whether or not the trader is one of the 0.4% (or whatever the number is). For example, back in my early days, I spent 4 months (@ $129/month) in the J16 private forum, and, given my (lack of) knowledge at the time, I consider the money well spent. I suspect that the mentors in that group are actually profitable themselves, but more importantly to me personally, is that I learned a lot of little nuances about price behavior around S/R levels. I don't trade exactly the same way that these folk do, but their concepts helped me shape my approach, which has slowly evolved over the years. I've likewise spent money on other material, and it has also proved helpful, providing insight into concepts that I probably wouldn't have otherwise thought of, or at least viewed in a certain way. Now if I never make it onto the Forbes list (LOL), I won't be turning around and blaming these educators for my failure, because I believe that, regardless of whether they're in the 0.4% or not, ultimately the only person who can teach me to trade profitably, by putting all the pieces together in a way that I can execute consistently, is ME.

2. I don't think it's necessarily as simple as putting traders into two camps: profitable and bullsh-tters. For example, have you read this blog? It's the fascinating story of a few experienced traders who devised an automated system that was profitable for 40 months (back and forward testing) — the equity curve over the 4 years would have impressed perhaps even the most hardened skeptics; a very smooth rise from £10k to £100k would have looked brilliant on a TE. But then, within the next 4 months, the system unexpectedly imploded to the point of irrecoverability; you can read the reasons why in the blog. Now these guys were probably in your 0.4% — if I'm not mistaken, one was soultrader, who is arguably one of the most respected contributors here at FF.

3. This is just my opinion, but I believe that "robust" methods — those that have the best chance of surviving the test of time — somehow exploit drivers that exist 'behind' the candles (e.g. macroeconomics, money flows, levels of supply and demand, orderflow, breakouts during times of high liquidity, tracking central bank/heavyweight activity, news trading, fading extreme overboughtness/oversoldness, trapped trader behavior, and no doubt many others that I'm unaware of). With a list like this in the back of my mind, then by skim-reading the first few posts of a systems thread, I can usually tell whether the material is going to be helpful to me personally, or not. No need for a TE.

Just my 2c. Perhaps I'm too lenient, but I prefer to use my own judgment in deciding whose ideas I'll take seriously, regardless of whether or not they have a TE.

On the other hand........ If, by choosing not to provide an audited track record, a vendor loses potential sales, or a non-commercial educator loses the potential support of people who feel the same way as you do, well — if I may be blunt — that's his problem, also.

Bottom line with RealJumper, is that (assuming I understand correctly) he's not selling anything. If people infer (whether rightly or wrongly) from his words that he's a profitable trader and a capable teacher, and they believe that time spent studying his thread will help them, then I guess that's their decision.

David
  • #68
  • Feb 10, 2013 12:39am Feb 10, 2013 12:39am
Quoting nubcake
pull your head in. you come-across as one of these gun-ho "come on guys let's help each other and we can be rich and change the world" types who blows a live account in public and then expects admiration for it. it's quite simple... amongst a group of retards the ones who at least have the sense to put a pair of pants on correctly get just that little bit more 'respect' than those who are walking around with their pants on their heads.

your words are hollow and lacking merit.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #69
  • Feb 10, 2013 12:44am Feb 10, 2013 12:44am
Quoting realjumper
What you fail to understand, and I'm really sick and tired of you and your nonsense, is that you don't discuss.......you make statements......and when those statements are completely wrong, as in "systems don't need discretion", I WILL correct you and I don't care whether you like it or not. it is a FACT.....a FACT.....the some level of discretion is required in EVERY SYSTEM.......in EVERY SYSTEM. Got it yet?
What you fail to understand is that you making a statement and calling it a fact, does not make it so, it is simply your opinion.
Im my opinion, a system is a complete entity that already has all the components that are necessary to achieve the required result.
As I have already said, traders' discretion may well improve on the results obtained by using the basic system.

You posting FACT twice in capital letters as well as repeating EVERY SYSTEM.......in EVERY SYSTEM and ending with the condescending "Got it yet?" is your idea of discussion?
That is not discussion, that is being a cyber bully
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #70
  • Feb 10, 2013 1:10am Feb 10, 2013 1:10am
Quoting Gumrai
What you fail to understand is that you making a statement and calling it a fact, does not make it so, it is simply your opinion.
Im my opinion, a system is a complete entity that already has all the components that are necessary to achieve the required result.
As I have already said, traders' discretion may well improve on the results obtained by using the basic system.

You posting FACT twice in capital letters as well as repeating EVERY SYSTEM.......in EVERY SYSTEM and ending with the condescending "Got it yet?" is your idea of discussion?
That...
I'll make it as simple as I can for you. It is NOT a matter of opinion....it is a matter of fact.....sorry that you don't like that, or you can't understand it, but it is so.

So here we go......this is a 'Yes' or 'No' question.

Are you going to take each and every signal that any given system generates, regardless of time of day?.......which markets are open or closed?.....the close proximity of a news announcement?.......a historical S/R area/line?.......a round number?........the level of movement already in the market today?.......etc etc etc

If you answer 'Yes', then you are bound to lose because, as I have said, that is how an EA behaves. If you truly and honestly expect any system to generate reliable income regardless of all of the above (and more) then you are sadly mistaken.

If you answer 'No'.....then you are applying discretion.

If you can't understand that, then I give up......there is no way you are ever going to be a system trader.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #71
  • Feb 10, 2013 1:11am Feb 10, 2013 1:11am
There's a high probability of them lying I honestly don't think its possible for a 95% gain
  • #72
  • Feb 10, 2013 1:44am Feb 10, 2013 1:44am
Quoting realjumper
Are you going to take each and every signal that any given system generates, regardless of time of day?.......which markets are open or closed?.....the close proximity of a news announcement?.......a historical S/R area/line?.......a round number?........the level of movement already in the market today?.......etc etc etc.
Many if not most systems have as part of the rules
Time of day to trade
Not to trade on holidays
Don't trade near important news times
Don't trade if price has moved so far in that direction already.
Don't trade if success requires break of a round number.
They are easy to follow rules and part of the system.

A historical S/R area/line may or may not be so easy to spot, so this could be one of the ways that traders; discretion can make a profitable system more profitable.

Quote
.there is no way you are ever going to be a system trader.

You are probably right, most of my trading is disretional, but this is not about my methods and strategy
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #73
  • Feb 10, 2013 1:48am Feb 10, 2013 1:48am
David, I am referring to that habit of “buying” into an FF self-appointed “teacher” and/ or their paid for services.

If this is a member’s modus operandi, which I suspect it is for most, then it is prudent to first verify the claims of the chosen “teacher” and the services they provide.

In your case David, you’re not “buying” into the well-worded posts, claims and marketing, so access to TE or other verification isn’t applicable.

I think that addresses points 1. and 3.

Re point 2., of course any can blow-up tomorrow, but I have no way to determine that if the metrics to-date are all sound.

Quoting hanover
Well, fair enough Peter, I do understand where you're coming from, but a couple of points in reply:

1. For me personally,...
  • #74
  • Feb 10, 2013 1:53am Feb 10, 2013 1:53am
hey hayseed, a read only MT4 password will do it

but really, i'm simply suggesting that it is sensible to verify your chosen teachers claims or strategy before buying into it.

Quoting hayseed
hey peter..... if it means so much, and i can figure out how, i'll allow you limited access to my explorer.....
  • #75
  • Feb 10, 2013 2:12am Feb 10, 2013 2:12am
I'm not really sure I understand why anybody would share the results of a successful trading plan with anybody... Maybe I cynical but it seems to me if a person had such a plan he would just get on with trading it.. Maybe somebody could enlighten me?
Stop or target...
  • #76
  • Feb 10, 2013 5:45am Feb 10, 2013 5:45am
95% are in over all loss, people just post there wins not the losses,
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #77
  • Feb 10, 2013 11:11am Feb 10, 2013 11:11am
they're simply all demo/micro traders
  • #78
  • Feb 10, 2013 11:35am Feb 10, 2013 11:35am
Quoting hanover
I think you misunderstand what is meant by longevity. It's not necessarily about holding trades open for several months. It's about long term survival and success as a trader, regardless of the holding period. There are scalpers who risk 1% equity per trade. It is very possible to trade at that level of risk, and still attain high drawdown, but obviously the smaller the position sizing, the slower the bleed.

Anyway, any misunderstandings aside, treating drawdown as irrelevant, and overleveraging yourself to the point where you can potentially...
No where is my reply did I mentioned "longevity" as holding a position for a long period of time. You like many of the 4k posters do a very good job of deflecting, and distracting those who read what is being said. I have brought up things such as "drawdown, leverage, equity, etc. Which you have in no way responded to. Yet, you continue to deflict and twist words around to make the person opposing your P.O.V. seem like a doorknob. Yet let us look at some of the things you've mentioned.

You used the phrase "You mean using forex purely as a vehicle for gambling." That is one of the most commonly used phrases by someone who lacks the ability of countering discussion of drawdown, leverage, equity, etc. Yet let us look up the definition of gambling "Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods."

Now, please tell me that EVERYONE who places a wager. No matter the equity, or time frame used to do so. Is a gambler. For you simply using that lame excuse as a rebuttal. I will no longer respond nor read any of your messages. As a matter of fact your on the ignore list for being so naive as to what your actually doing in forex.
  • #79
  • Feb 10, 2013 11:48am Feb 10, 2013 11:48am
Quoting nubcake
pull your head in. you come-across as one of these gun-ho "come on guys let's help each other and we can be rich and change the world" types who blows a live account in public and then expects admiration for it. it's quite simple... amongst a group of retards the ones who at least have the sense to put a pair of pants on correctly get just that little bit more 'respect' than those who are walking around with their pants on their heads.

your words are hollow and lacking merit.
No no no. Why would anyone look for admiration for blowing an account? My purpose, unlike many of you "forex bloggers" is showing how consistent profits can be, when you don't trade with bias. When you stick to your system, and you don't follow the advice of noobs like yourself. I've taken the time to share my experiences, and my trades for the purpose of enlightenment. So noobs, can see that by blogging less, and charting more, you can actually earn 5% a day without having to earn 1 trillion points. That my friend is called being a productive member of an online community.

Noobs will follow two types of people. The people who they "assume" knows more then them. They assume that because the so called "gurus" and 4k+ post members use words which confuse them. Those gurus also post lines, and post numbers which in no way have anything to do with where the prices will actually go. It is just like investing your money in a well dressed, well spoken wall street broker. Yet ask yourself. If he is that good. Why not work for himself?

Then the noobs also choose to follow those people who can put up REAL NUMBERS. People who use trade explorer and aim for the stars. People who don't photoshop their results or only post winning trades and not losing ones. We are all here to turn profit. And in case you've forgotten. The BEST TRADERS in the world, can't even consistently earn 10% a year. So what makes you think, this guru on ff.com can do the same? People want to earn in REAL TIME! Not wait 5 years to earn 20% profit. When if you weren't bias or ignorant to how the market works you could of earned more.

You pessimistic bloggers use words like "You can't consistently earn that type of profit". "That was just luck". "You have little to no money management" Yet, it is much easier to be a critic then a performer. Which is why blogging is your profession. Which is why if your a noob. Use trader explorer to your advantage. Learn how to reverse engineer a trade. If a person is earning profit, you should be able to figure out exactly how he/she is doing it. Its obvious to see that taking a position, and waiting for it to hit your tp isn't going to get you anywhere in the long run.

I wish everyone a great trading week, even those of you 4k+ posters who only trade in demo. Maybe you'll do well enough to make a deposit with your wifes credit card! No matter what time frame you use, these forex system repeats the same patterns over and over again. Identify the patterns and you'll be able to earn enough money daily to buy a happy meal for your child.
  • #80
  • Feb 10, 2013 11:50am Feb 10, 2013 11:50am
Quoting realjumper
I'll make it as simple as I can for you. It is NOT a matter of opinion....it is a matter of fact.....sorry that you don't like that, or you can't understand it, but it is so.

So here we go......this is a 'Yes' or 'No' question.

Are you going to take each and every signal that any given system generates, regardless of time of day?.......which markets are open or closed?.....the close proximity of a news announcement?.......a historical S/R area/line?.......a round number?........the level of movement already in the market today?.......etc...
I'll send you 500 usd just to see your trade explorer. You great with words, but I am 1000% sure your horrible with numbers.
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