DislikedDepends on how the market is trending (stocks, commodities, forex). Pure trends are hard to play harmonically unless using longer timeframes. Just look at USD/JPY on the daily. Beside a few brief ABCDs related to pullbacks, it has gone straight up. I am sure some will see more patterns, but after a few intraday EURUSD trend days, I know to tread very lightly and trade only with the trend otherwise you will be trying to pick tops and bottoms unsuccessfully.
I live for a sloping channel trend where ABCDs are everywhere as it ebbs and flows in...Ignored
Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
- #2,745
- Feb 8, 2013 6:54pm Feb 8, 2013 6:54pm
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Always manage your risk & leverage | 7,339 Posts
they will dance in prz first ( some times make higher high/lower low sometimes lower high/higher low ...making divergence ) .......once breakout............ most of the time .......they will re test it before major move. it just happened in euro...... and will happen in following week.
coz no straight line in this biz
mr pip,
do you ever trade broken przs on tick charts or larger timeframes - you know, prz breaks and then it retests it from the other side?
not euphoria follower
- #2,747
- Feb 9, 2013 3:18am Feb 9, 2013 3:18am
- | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,157 Posts
they will dance in prz first ( some times make higher high/lower low sometimes lower high/higher low ...making divergence ) .......once breakout............ most of the time .......they will re test it before major move. it just happened in euro...... and will happen in following week.
coz no straight line in this biz
In this biz, the movements are ALL straight lines, only that you have to figure out whether the straight line is a short line or longer line, and whether this straight line is a Zig or a Zag, they just move in different directions more often in this forex biz.
- #2,749
- Feb 9, 2013 3:48am Feb 9, 2013 3:48am
- | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,157 Posts
Hi guys, I want to share with you my trades of today. It was an excellent pip filled day. I took only 2 trades, with 77 pip total, but there were many opportunities. I didn't take the ABCD because I wasn't at the PC in that moment. The Gartley Pattern doesn't seem to be a Gartley per Mr. Pip rules in the Ninja, but in my JForex platform it was a perfect Gartley, price reaches 0.618 in point B and in point C. Now we have a perfect ABCD, but by now market will close soon.
Hi dibo90,
The reason why the first ABCD failed is because it is actually a Crab pattern. Below I will attach my trading chart with the Crab pattern. Next time take a quick look back at the previous swings, to see whether price is part of another/bigger pattern. Good job on the winning trades!
You both are looking at tick chart, hopefully my chart is same time period as both your charts.
Another way looking at it differently using M15 chart.
My E/U M15 8-Feb chart showed a simple ABC-Short at 61.8% below 1.3402, so in this M15 period compared to Tick, the M15 would not even noticed the "Failed ABC Long" shown by dibo90's Tick chart or the "crab" shown by Good2Cu's Tick chart.
- #2,750
- Edited 6:17am Feb 9, 2013 5:10am | Edited 6:17am
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Always manage your risk & leverage | 7,339 Posts
oh yaaaa ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vzzq4XQinb4
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1360255820
make it simple... no line.. no fibo .. no pattern ... simple... right ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vzzq4XQinb4
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1360255820
make it simple... no line.. no fibo .. no pattern ... simple... right ?
In this biz, the movements are ALL straight lines, only that you have to figure out whether the straight line is a short line or longer line, and whether this straight line is a Zig or a Zag, they just move in different directions more often in this forex biz.
not euphoria follower
- #2,751
- Feb 9, 2013 5:40am Feb 9, 2013 5:40am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
[quote=BroncoCap;6432133]Exactly right. My expectancy for the 30 trades I analyzed yesterday was 0.20 and you can see the possible equity curves in my journal. The key is to get above 0 in such a way as random and out-sized loses/gains do not skew results.
0,20 sounds good, add weekly compounding to that and you will be
"Experts", studies "proved", that position sizing has the biggest impact on your bottom line...even more than entries and exits.
Coin flip simulations with a big enough trailing stop made money, little but postive, "they" claim 10 year simulations, with mostly positive results...on Gold. S%P 500, etc.
So add to that a precise entry and exit,(Mr. Pip) and youré surfing...
0,20 sounds good, add weekly compounding to that and you will be
"Experts", studies "proved", that position sizing has the biggest impact on your bottom line...even more than entries and exits.
Coin flip simulations with a big enough trailing stop made money, little but postive, "they" claim 10 year simulations, with mostly positive results...on Gold. S%P 500, etc.
So add to that a precise entry and exit,(Mr. Pip) and youré surfing...
- #2,752
- Feb 9, 2013 7:40am Feb 9, 2013 7:40am
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,204 Posts
In this biz, the movements are ALL straight lines, only that you have to figure out whether the straight line is a short line or longer line, and whether this straight line is a Zig or a Zag, they just move in different directions more often in this forex biz.
- #2,753
- Edited 8:07am Feb 9, 2013 7:52am | Edited 8:07am
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,204 Posts
i believe in this case it broke a level of supply , and the abcd ended right above the broken supplyThats why i was uncomfortable with it. It turned out it was just an impulse wave in a larger impulse wave. I dont know if this is generally true, just an observation.
blue are supply zones, red is 61.8 zone, black is prz...
edit: then again, i guess it depends on how you define supply, how you draw it
- #2,754
- Feb 9, 2013 9:05am Feb 9, 2013 9:05am
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,204 Posts
I think high probability trades can be determined via the interaction of price, prz, 61.8 zones and supply/demand zones (of varying strength). This will allow more possibilities, and you wont be frustrated that it just spiked into your prz/61.8 zone, and you didn't enter because it didnt close in it (because there will be a reason for that)
See here.... You can define rules for specific situations, in terms of how it interacts, especially once you train yourself with price action...
* PRZ is right in the middle of large demand, possibly a good place to trade
1) Price bounces off demand, and briefly spikes into PRZ
2) Price goes up then dips halfway into demand and PRZ, creating a zone of potentially weak supply (top blue rectangle)
3) Price pierces supply zone, then dives deep (50+ %) into demand, creating a scenario where it possibly has enough strength to go up
4) Buy when it reaches 50% (pending order), without waiting for a close, or you could wait for a close
notice it never reached 61.8 red zone, just a brief spike
Defining big strong supply/demand areas
See here.... You can define rules for specific situations, in terms of how it interacts, especially once you train yourself with price action...
* PRZ is right in the middle of large demand, possibly a good place to trade
1) Price bounces off demand, and briefly spikes into PRZ
2) Price goes up then dips halfway into demand and PRZ, creating a zone of potentially weak supply (top blue rectangle)
3) Price pierces supply zone, then dives deep (50+ %) into demand, creating a scenario where it possibly has enough strength to go up
4) Buy when it reaches 50% (pending order), without waiting for a close, or you could wait for a close
notice it never reached 61.8 red zone, just a brief spike
Defining big strong supply/demand areas
- #2,756
- Feb 9, 2013 10:59am Feb 9, 2013 10:59am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,124 Posts
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
- #2,757
- Feb 9, 2013 11:13am Feb 9, 2013 11:13am
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,204 Posts
i believe in this case it broke a level of supply , and the abcd ended right above the broken supplyThats why i was uncomfortable with it. It turned out it was just an impulse wave in a larger impulse wave. I dont know if this is generally true, just an observation.
- #2,758
- Feb 9, 2013 11:17am Feb 9, 2013 11:17am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,124 Posts
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
- #2,759
- Feb 9, 2013 12:16pm Feb 9, 2013 12:16pm
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,204 Posts
Starry, since you are hard at work here, take a look at EURUSD. I do not see it posted here but you should see a harmonic pattern(s).
- #2,760
- Feb 9, 2013 12:42pm Feb 9, 2013 12:42pm
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,124 Posts
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..