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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #2,721
  • Feb 8, 2013 9:42am Feb 8, 2013 9:42am
I think i need to take the fact in mind that larger zones often cause smaller przs not to be reached, and only to be spiked into.... I like smaller zones because they allow a tighter stop, then simply going in the larger 61.8 zone, but it often only spikes into the smaller one... and then i get confused because it should close into it normally, unless there are larger forces at play...

red is 61.8 zones, and burlywood is smaller przs leading into 61.8 zones, and blue is demand/supply zones.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: larger_prz.jpg Size: 116 KB
  • #2,722
  • Feb 8, 2013 9:54am Feb 8, 2013 9:54am
Quoting Starry
I think i need to take the fact in mind that larger zones often cause smaller przs not to be reached, and only to be spiked into.... I like smaller zones because they allow a tighter stop, then simply going in the larger 61.8 zone, but it often only spikes into the smaller one... and then i get confused because it should close into it normally, unless there are larger forces at play...

red is 61.8 zones, and burlywood is smaller przs leading into 61.8 zones, and blue is demand/supply zones.....

Attachment
I have opposing aggressive C entries in both those PRZs. I am guaranteed a winner and 0.6% return. Although I have a pending sell that was just missed which would lead to an overall short bias. Again, I am just trying to accumulate as many trades as possible.

Nice harmonic reads there Starry!
  • #2,723
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:00am Feb 8, 2013 10:00am
Quoting BroncoCap
I have opposing aggressive C entries in both those PRZs. I am guaranteed a winner and 0.6% return. Although I have a pending sell that was just missed which would lead to an overall short bias. Again, I am just trying to accumulate as many trades as possible.

Nice harmonic reads there Starry!
lol i had them drawn , the burlywood, but i didint take them cause they didnt get there, i guess the second one did. going to draw the bigger zones now! atleast im seeing them now!

still, net win for today!

good trading every1!
  • #2,724
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:04am Feb 8, 2013 10:04am
Ive noticed alot of the trades that work, you could have moved the sl to be way before the 38.2 zone. instant gratification, love it! once it moves away from your prz, it never comes back
  • #2,725
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:17am Feb 8, 2013 10:17am
Trades for today. +0.1%, 1 be, 1 win, 1 loss. BE wasnt based on harmonics and kept me out of the harmonic trade, because i didnt want to add to a loser. have a good weekend!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,726
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:39am Feb 8, 2013 10:39am
Quoting tjokro
My View on GBPUSD,

That's cool. I see your point of view on it. In doing research and development on the pound pairs one thing that is clear is that it is a stop hunting beast. lol. Its one of the reasons the big brother (shark pattern) and little brother (cypher) work so well and have a high probability success rate with these pair. Now that doesn't mean the your bat pattern won't provide bankable pips just means for me i'll be looking for the price action behavior in that area and would expect that if price does get up there the big boys will most likely hit the stops, trap volume and drop. The beautiful thing is that we can both be right and make bank or both be wrong and get stopped. GL and may the pips always be on your side
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #2,727
  • Feb 8, 2013 11:40am Feb 8, 2013 11:40am
Quoting Starry
Trades for today. +0.1%, 1 be, 1 win, 1 loss. BE wasnt based on harmonics and kept me out of the harmonic trade, because i didnt want to add to a loser. have a good weekend!

Attachment
Nice long, I would have jumped on that quick had I been at my trade desk.

My opposing double aggressive C just hit target/stop giving +14.74 and -8.67 for a 1.7 r:r, perfect

But darn do I wish the second short at ~1.3392 had filled. Hard mentally to double down, but a swing is a swing and an aggressive C is an aggressive C. Take every trade!

Have a good weekend Starry, nice trading.
  • #2,728
  • Feb 8, 2013 11:47am Feb 8, 2013 11:47am
Quoting BroncoCap
Nice long, I would have jumped on that quick had I been at my trade desk.

My opposing double aggressive C just hit target/stop giving +14.74 and -8.67 for a 1.7 r:r, perfect

But darn do I wish the second short at ~1.3392 had filled. Hard mentally to double down, but a swing is a swing and an aggressive C is an aggressive C. Take every trade!

Have a good weekend Starry, nice trading.
very nice! i wish id traded more, buti know as i gain more experience ill gain more confidence and trade more of the good setups (because ive seen the pattern before), same for you too!

have a nice weekend
  • #2,729
  • Feb 8, 2013 12:13pm Feb 8, 2013 12:13pm
Hi guys, I want to share with you my trades of today. It was an excellent pip filled day. I took only 2 trades, with 77 pip total, but there were many opportunities. I didn't take the ABCD because I wasn't at the PC in that moment. The Gartley Pattern doesn't seem to be a Gartley per Mr. Pip rules in the Ninja, but in my JForex platform it was a perfect Gartley, price reaches 0.618 in point B and in point C. Now we have a perfect ABCD, but by now market will close soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (100 Tick) 08_02_2013.jpg Size: 111 KB
  • #2,730
  • Feb 8, 2013 12:24pm Feb 8, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting dibo90
Hi guys, I want to share with you my trades of today. It was an excellent pip filled day. I took only 2 trades, with 77 pip total, but there were many opportunities. I didn't take the ABCD because I wasn't at the PC in that moment. The Gartley Pattern doesn't seem to be a Gartley per Mr. Pip rules in the Ninja, but in my JForex platform it was a perfect Gartley, price reaches 0.618 in point B and in point C. Now we have a perfect ABCD, but by now market will close soon.
Helluva nice chart there, congrats.

As stated somewhere else recently, each broker's data feed may be slightly different leading to slightly different patterns. Just as important, unless you use market orders, some of the limit orders at aggressive C's or other locations may not fill. That final short aggressive C did not fill for my resting limit

Enjoy the weekend, you earned it!
  • #2,731
  • Feb 8, 2013 12:25pm Feb 8, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting dibo90
Hi guys, I want to share with you my trades of today. It was an excellent pip filled day. I took only 2 trades, with 77 pip total, but there were many opportunities. I didn't take the ABCD because I wasn't at the PC in that moment. The Gartley Pattern doesn't seem to be a Gartley per Mr. Pip rules in the Ninja, but in my JForex platform it was a perfect Gartley, price reaches 0.618 in point B and in point C. Now we have a perfect ABCD, but by now market will close soon.
yay more people sharing their trades! gj!
  • #2,732
  • Feb 8, 2013 12:42pm Feb 8, 2013 12:42pm
Quoting BroncoCap
Helluva nice chart there, congrats.

As stated somewhere else recently, each broker's data feed may be slightly different leading to slightly different patterns. Just as important, unless you use market orders, some of the limit orders at aggressive C's or other locations may not fill. That final short aggressive C did not fill for my resting limit

Enjoy the weekend, you earned it!
Thanks Bronco
I draw the final Aggressive C Zone just to show that price reaches 0.618 of the last swing (so the previous C Zone + AB=CD succeed), but it was impossible to enter there. I usually enter in the middle of a Zone (PRZ or Aggr. C)

Happy weekend also to all of you guys!
  • #2,733
  • Feb 8, 2013 1:08pm Feb 8, 2013 1:08pm
AB=CD on EURUSD. Too bad the market is pretty much done. Any thoughts on pattern holding for Sunday evening open or just can it and start next week fresh? Either way it is good practice. Have a great weekend everyone!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD AB=CD 233tick 2_8_13.JPG Size: 105 KB
Chance favors the prepared mind.
  • #2,734
  • Feb 8, 2013 1:57pm Feb 8, 2013 1:57pm
Hi dibo90,
The reason why the first ABCD failed is because it is actually a Crab pattern. Below I will attach my trading chart with the Crab pattern. Next time take a quick look back at the previous swings, to see whether price is part of another/bigger pattern. Good job on the winning trades!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (233 Tick) 8-2-2013.jpg Size: 107 KB
"The only thing I’m addicted to right now is winning."
  • #2,735
  • Feb 8, 2013 2:31pm Feb 8, 2013 2:31pm
Quoting Good2Cu
Hi dibo90,
The reason why the first ABCD failed is because it is actually a Crab pattern. Below I will attach my trading chart with the Crab pattern. Next time take a quick look back at the previous swings, to see whether price is part of another/bigger pattern. Good job on the winning trades!
Yes absolutely, I didn't note that crab, thanks. The candle closes between 0.5 and 0.618, so respects Mr. Pip rules. However price touches 0.618, so I think it doesn't invalidate the ABCD. Maybe Mr. Pip can help us. I think we are both right
  • #2,736
  • Feb 8, 2013 3:11pm Feb 8, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting dibo90
Yes absolutely, I didn't note that crab, thanks. The candle closes between 0.5 and 0.618, so respects Mr. Pip rules. However price touches 0.618, so I think it doesn't invalidate the ABCD. Maybe Mr. Pip can help us. I think we are both right
I think that patterns such as the gartley (and sometimes the crab) which consist of a valid abcd differ from the abcd pattern, in that these patterns have an X to A swing which has either a significant high or low point, giving these patterns more strength. I hope this made sense. Like you said, perhaps Mr. Pip or someone else can shed some light on this.
"The only thing I’m addicted to right now is winning."
  • #2,737
  • Feb 8, 2013 3:56pm Feb 8, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting profitpips
Do you mean that your TP is only 17% of the amount you risked?
No, my TP is a normal 2/1 or better..

I risk same amount per trade (exact, no lots, exact amount of $ as to distance to stop, in relation to size)
Plot results in excel.
Number of trades.
R is the risk, position size...say 10 $.
Win and loose....win and loose...etc...
0,17 is the expectation based on the results, after a sample number of trades... average of winners and loosers divided by the amount of trades...risking the same amount (R= risk)
It means you are "expected " to make 1,7 dolars per trade, per 10 dolars risked.
It´s low, but if consistent....
A famous horseracing gambler in Australia used to say, "give me a dollar and an edge"..then it depends on the ammount of opportunities you get to play your edge.. rinse and repeat...if your edge remains...money pours in...
Consistency is the most difficult part, for me...at least...
  • #2,738
  • Feb 8, 2013 3:58pm Feb 8, 2013 3:58pm
Wow, harmonics works like a pro on stock charts. atleast , checking out SLW using ninjatrader and my live tdameritrade account. I wonder if trending markets work better with harmonics.
  • #2,739
  • Feb 8, 2013 4:03pm Feb 8, 2013 4:03pm
Quoting cuchuflito
No, my TP is a normal 2/1 or better..

I risk same amount per trade (exact, no lots, exact amount of $ as to distance to stop, in relation to size)
Plot results in excel.
Number of trades.
R is the risk, position size...say 10 $.
Win and loose....win and loose...etc...
0,17 is the expectation based on the results, after a sample number of trades... average of winners and loosers divided by the amount of trades...risking the same amount (R= risk)
It means you are "expected " to make 1,7 dolars per trade, per 10 dolars risked.
It´s...
Exactly right. My expectancy for the 30 trades I analyzed yesterday was 0.20 and you can see the possible equity curves in my journal. The key is to get above 0 in such a way as random and out-sized loses/gains do not skew results.

For those that do not know, the formula for expectancy is:

[win% * (avg win/avg loss)] - (1-win%)

1-win% is actually just loss% and some people use total win/total loss instead of averages. I like averages since outliers have smaller weighing.

Ultimately I will discuss win%, avg win/avg loss, expectancy, and more statistics when I fully analyze all my trades. I will keep most of the discussion to my journal, but will mention the post here. This is Mr. Pip's thread and I hope to keep it that way.

Cheers all!

P.S. Yes, Starry, you can find harmonics in every market. But, again, I suggest you just focus on one until you have it perfected!
  • #2,740
  • Feb 8, 2013 4:09pm Feb 8, 2013 4:09pm
Quoting Starry
Wow, harmonics works like a pro on stock charts. atleast , checking out SLW using ninjatrader and my live tdameritrade account. I wonder if trending markets work better with harmonics.
Depends on how the market is trending (stocks, commodities, forex). Pure trends are hard to play harmonically unless using longer timeframes. Just look at USD/JPY on the daily. Beside a few brief ABCDs related to pullbacks, it has gone straight up. I am sure some will see more patterns, but after a few intraday EURUSD trend days, I know to tread very lightly and trade only with the trend otherwise you will be trying to pick tops and bottoms unsuccessfully.

I live for a sloping channel trend where ABCDs are everywhere as it ebbs and flows in an overall up or down trend. Makes trading cake. But in a lot of trends I start seeing only 38.2% and 50.0% retracements = no-go for me. Those are the strongest trends and I just stay away until deeper retracements show up.

One thing to think about when identifying a pattern is "what does the pattern represent" in terms of buyers, sellers, higher highs, lower lows. Descriptively, think about what the market is doing and what are the possible outcomes. That running dialog could clue you in and provide an edge (although no guarantees!).

Cheers guys!
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