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  • #27,241
  • Feb 7, 2013 5:59pm Feb 7, 2013 5:59pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Yes, it is certainly possbile or probable that the downward move is not over.

However, based on the sentiment in your thread, I am having a hard time not assuming this is over and it is time to go long.

But I will wait.

The emotions expressed in this thread are a perfect exmample of why EWP works.

Good luck all.
from where im seeing, your EWP is pointing to the wrong directions..
you and DB have both been calling up and up since last week but AUD is down and keep dropping..
  • #27,242
  • Feb 7, 2013 5:59pm Feb 7, 2013 5:59pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Yes, it is certainly possbile or probable that the downward move is not over.

However, based on the sentiment in your thread, I am having a hard time not assuming this is over and it is time to go long.

But I will wait.

The emotions expressed in this thread are a perfect exmample of why EWP works.

Good luck all.
The chart is very clear that the move is not done but the downside could be limited.
daddybearforex. com
  • #27,243
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:00pm Feb 7, 2013 6:00pm
Quoting HelloOz
from where im seeing, your EWP is pointing to the wrong directions..
you and DB have both been calling up and up since last week but AUD is down and keep dropping..
Koala bear, Scott and I were talking about weekly not scalping.
daddybearforex. com
  • #27,244
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:05pm Feb 7, 2013 6:05pm
.
Attached Image
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #27,245
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:05pm Feb 7, 2013 6:05pm
Quoting DaddyBear
IMO 1.0246 is a remote possibility at this point....
Posted 3 Feb,
  • #27,246
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:05pm Feb 7, 2013 6:05pm
Posted 4th Feb

broken??

Quoting DaddyBear
Because this ....

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359759025
  • #27,247
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:12pm Feb 7, 2013 6:12pm
Quoting HelloOz
Posted 3 Feb,
Posted by DaddyBear (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6414162#post6414162)
IMO 1.0246 is a remote possibility at this point....
dovish minutes + bad CNY numbers = 1.01xx today..
  • #27,248
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:30pm Feb 7, 2013 6:30pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Yes, it is certainly possbile or probable that the downward move is not over.

However, based on the sentiment in your thread, I am having a hard time not assuming this is over and it is time to go long.

But I will wait.

The emotions expressed in this thread are a perfect exmample of why EWP works.

Good luck all.
Disclaimer: Not trying to be a contrarian here. I'm just stating my opinion and looking for rationale discussion.

I don't see any use in EWP. I respect every trader that uses EWP (some of which are here on this thread) and I would never be so ignorant as to say it is useless to everyone. All I'm saying is I don't see a way where it is beneficial. I should also note here that I trade pretty actively. By that I mean I usually enter and exit trades every day of the week. Perhaps on a larger time frame EWP has more merit - such as monthly or yearly time frame (maybe, who knows). Anyway, the idea that people (the majority) get scared (or overconfident) at certain points of price movements is logical. The problem with trying to predict the "crowd" reaction is that no one knows to what extent the reaction will be. Furthermore, no one knows which players are involved in the market at that particular time and to what degree. To me, using EWP in trading is like trying to cram a square peg into a round hole. In other words, using EWP would be like trying to use a model of conformity to analyze every market scenario. The market just isn't always THAT similar. With that said, there is some similarity between trying to predict herd reaction and trying to estimate where supports and resistances are for entry and exit - which is my main thing. The BIG difference between the two is that the S/R's are backed by fundamental and historical reasons (overvalued or undervalued, not people influenced by their emotions at that particular time).

The biggest problem (for lack of a better word) I see with EWP is that if it was so accurate then everyone would see it clearly. The patterns would stand out on charts like a sore thumb. Then everyone and their mothers would be using it. And if the majority of cashflow began coming into the market at around the same price and at around the same time, then it would have to fail more than it succeeds. So, from my perspective, EWP contradicts what a free flowing market really is. That is the fundamental problem I see with EWP.
  • #27,249
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:33pm Feb 7, 2013 6:33pm
more gif please?

Quoting 2+2=4ex
Disclaimer: Not trying to be a contrarian here. I'm just stating my opinion and looking for rationale discussion.

I don't see any use in EWP. I respect every trader that uses EWP (some of which are here on this thread) and I would never be so ignorant as to say it is useless to everyone. All I'm saying is I don't see a way where it is beneficial. I should also note here that I trade pretty actively. By that I mean I usually enter and exit trades every day of the week. Perhaps on a larger time frame EWP has more merit - such as monthly or yearly...
  • #27,250
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:35pm Feb 7, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting HelloOz
dovish minutes + bad CNY numbers = 1.01xx today..
my bad,
its RBA Monetary Policy Statement and not RBA Minutes..
zzz
  • #27,251
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:35pm Feb 7, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Disclaimer: Not trying to be a contrarian here. I'm just stating my opinion and looking for rationale discussion.

I don't see any use in EWP. I respect every trader that uses EWP (some of which are here on this thread) and I would never be so ignorant as to say it is useless to everyone. All I'm saying is I don't see a way where it is beneficial. I should also note here that I trade pretty actively. By that I mean I usually enter and exit trades every day of the week. Perhaps on a larger time frame EWP has more merit - such as monthly or yearly...

I remember reading somewhere the EWP was based on profit taking likelihood and position entering based on previous action, much like leaves growing on a shoot with respect to where the previous leaves have grown. The article didn't have too much about that part, but it was the only thing I read that took the explanation of why these things happen. Every other site just talked about how there are patterns that repeat in nature (not why, though) and the wave rules.

It does somewhat make sense that there could be some truth to the EWP, though, I don't think the EWP of today is what was originally written when the guy was making this stuff up.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #27,252
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:39pm Feb 7, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting HelloOz
more gif please?
Here's one!
Attached Image
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #27,253
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:39pm Feb 7, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting HelloOz
more gif please?
http://www.barnorama.com/wp-content/...cing-boobs.gif
  • #27,254
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:46pm Feb 7, 2013 6:46pm
If you're long on AUD/USD, you don't need to panic yet (unless you're overleveraged). So long as you have a reasonable position size to endure a move down to about 1.0170 +/- without having a large drawdown, then you may be okay in the end. I would watch carefully though when/if price gets to the yellow trend line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU Weekly 2-7-13.jpg Size: 152 KB
  • #27,255
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:46pm Feb 7, 2013 6:46pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
Here's one!
Nice!
  • #27,256
  • Feb 7, 2013 7:52pm Feb 7, 2013 7:52pm
DB, I just found end of month binary options at 24option.com and just bought below the current price option on eur/gbp.



Openning an account only took 2 minutes and deposit is also fast. I deposited a small amount to try it out.
  • #27,257
  • Feb 7, 2013 7:55pm Feb 7, 2013 7:55pm
chinese trade balance should be out any minute now..
  • #27,258
  • Feb 7, 2013 8:09pm Feb 7, 2013 8:09pm
Quoting HelloOz
chinese trade balance should be out any minute now..
29.2B
  • #27,259
  • Feb 7, 2013 8:10pm Feb 7, 2013 8:10pm
Quoting HelloOz
29.2B
7.6% fall from previous month ???
  • #27,260
  • Feb 7, 2013 8:11pm Feb 7, 2013 8:11pm
Yes but largely better than expected. So difficult to trade with a 'tentative' release like this.
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