Volume Price Level Trading

Thank You Spud. It's a good entry confirmation signal. But don' t worry. I'm sure those of us who have followed this thread are hooked on to VPLT. It's such an elegant method and will continue to use it as it is meant to.

Thank you Spud. We are looking forward to your next wisdom!

Thanks for you last lesson Spud.
No worries I think people following you are not indicator junkies.

Can't wait for more...

I almost lost hope after all these years... You're keeping me up!

Hi, here´s a demo trade from earlier today. Please comment.

http://i50.tinypic.com/116jlzm.gif

1,2 and 3 establish [email protected]
3-4 establish a new PL@ 1.3525
4,5,6 price up volume down so there´s clearly no interest in higher pricelevels. Good entry @candle 7 pricelevel 1.3540, TP@ 1.3525, SL@ 1.3550 R:R>1:1.
8,9 gives a new [email protected]
10,11 confirmning less interest in higher PL so bias is short.
12,13 possibly showing that the lowest PL to concider is @1.3520.
14 price up and volume down gives an indication to short @candle 15 PL 1.3540, [email protected], [email protected]. R:R>1:1.
Worked out good.

Regards

Waez

Great VPLT analysis!
And excellent pip taking management!

The chart below is a "short" MACD example, where the MACD histogram is below the MACD "0" level.

The chart below shows 3 vertical red lines numbered 1, 2 and 3. These lines are established like normal VPLT, where volume has peaked -- except we are only interested in a short signal since our MACD histogram has crossed down across the MACD "0" level. As such, we can see these short signals when we have a volume peak, and the MACD histogram is growing larger in our trade direction.

As you know from MACD, the MACD histogram is showing greater divergence as it moves away from "0", which generally means strength in the price move...and we know about VPLT and market already, so that is why these are obvious short signals.

The short trade entry is best made at or near the major price level (1.3055 in the chart). This is the "safe" point, go too high above to enter short and you may caught in a price reversal, go too low and you may have missed the short...close means 2-3 pips from major price level....unless something else is telling you it is ok to exceed this.

You will notice that the 3 VPLT price candles, all support the major price level at 1.3055, and that we have short signals repeated 3 times. You won't always get that, but here rather obvious what to do. You will also note our short entries all had opportunity to enter above the major price level when signaled....again that won't always happen.

That's a typical short signal. You will see this pattern over and over on short signals in the market. You may not get 3 short signals in a row like on this chart, but 1 is enough. You know about VPLT. MACD is only supporting our VPLT, in that it supports the downward price move. The combination can give us an early view to what is happening, but certainly in the "here and now" the market picture is pretty clear...you only have one trade direction to go based on that.

Don't forget that VPLT works on the basis that the market does blatantly obvious things and basis their decisions on either price action or indicators -- so it should be no surprise that we can start to see the blatantly obvious market decisions if we tap into it. Volume of course is our guide to where they put their money and price levels are where they are headed.

Thanks Spudfyre I feel encouraged. Here´s a nother attempt in the making. I just loaded the charts and saw this below.

http://i50.tinypic.com/2vmdll3.gif


1 and 2 gives [email protected]
3 indecision
4 and 5 confirms short bias
6 price up and volume down so lloking for short entry
7 entering @ 1.3570 [email protected], [email protected] RR>1:1

Regards

Waez

Sorry Spudfyre I forgot to ask, do you move your SL at any point and in that case how?

Thanks

Waez

Following up post 427. Please comment.

http://i48.tinypic.com/35n7ifo.gif

At 9 the trade went +8 pips and I moved the SL to BE+1 which was hit sortly after.
In hindsight it´s clear that the trade was never in danger. The peak at 9 merely confirmed the [email protected] and afterwards the price dived.

Regards

Waez

You still in that position? It'd be payin' off pretty well right now, lol.

It would have, now I ended up with +1 lol.

http://i49.tinypic.com/125jtle.gif

It would be nice to here how Spudfyre would handle such breakout with the VPLT. Moving SL. Getting in again when first TP is hit?

Regards

Waez

Maybe a nice bounce when the big money is out? EU.

Waez

Good stuff on the EU! i took a trade on that as well, now still running profit.

Regards

Waez

i would also like to see how you traded todays. the breakdn
thanks

Always move stop loss to protect pips.


And now I rant....Better to take pips than lose pips 100% of the time. There is no such thing as "missing" pips.
Where the most money is lost is chasing "missing" pips and ending up losing pips...let the ego go when trading....millions of opportunities to trade and make pips.
How can you lose when you win? and win? and win?

So what are the decisions at 9?

1. Volume down, this would likely create a confirmatin of the current price level....so stick with your trade.
2. Volume up, you could favour a long here and take your pip...there is nothing wrong with that...positive pips is always a good trade.
This would be because we see what looks like a weakening at the price level and that #9 looks like it will drive to a new higher price level.
However, you could also look at 6, 7 and 8 prices all weakening (i.e. they aren't going with higher highs) and support the low take.

VPLT is established to protect a decision, which is why it pays off. A short decison here, you see the pip machine. There's an argument for short.
Taking the long position, is also supported and it is why you don't get caught. In the end, long is wrong here, but that will happen....take a pip from the wrong way versus a 20-30 pip loss...that's what will win the day.

However, after #10, you go short...right? Same reasons you went long....but now you see the other direction.

Be very careful not to lock yourself into a decision and expect the market to follow. Look for changes and take them. We are still hovering around the price level, so there isn't really a nice clear take away of price, until #11, #10 confirms our price level and 7,8,9,10 shout short.

My trade:
Short in at #10 with a S/L of 15 and a TP at 20.
There's no change in price level at #11 and though volume looks a little flat with #10,11 the price in #11 is breaking away short, so I'm still short and my S/L is moved down 5 (10) my TP is increased to 25. That's a 10:25 loss/profit ratio....I like these.
My short pays off in #12, and I grab 25 pips because my TP was hit. If I had a chance, I'd move my S/L to 0.
Wait for the new price level to form.
Repeat.

Thanks for the below chart and the explanations Spud. My entry today was at 13470 and exited at 13435. Had it not been for the ECB press conference I would have taken my entry at 13560. You are right in noting that market makes blatantly obvious moves. I can appreciate that more since I started using VPLT and growing in confidence with your insights.

Best regards

For sure, in the heat of the moment I need to remember that the next trade is around the corner. It feels better to lock in profit however small or reduce the SL and occaisonally miss a bigger win because the SL is being hit.

Thanks Spudfyre for the answer.

Regards

Waez