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  • #130,201
  • Feb 7, 2013 1:21am Feb 7, 2013 1:21am
Quoting cohiba pips
It's not looking bearish to me jon let's see
well if i had to guess james, i'd have to favour a 200 pip consolidation range for another leg up also... but then does ecb have any fundamental, macro economic reasons to signal a further near to mid term cut?

also the move up from the middle of last year (thanks to this ongoing, open ended fed qe program, fuelled more recently by concerns over the ez crisis dissipating), has been a pretty strong and decisive one, is there further room for it to unwind maybe another 100 pips or so?
  • #130,202
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:48am Feb 7, 2013 3:48am
A new indifferent opening range in European equities. DAX and CAC looks extremely tired after 2 consecutive days without triggering any interest at the highs. Without ECB we are going nowhere to the upside above the highs. We are just one trigger away from a very decent move down.

Euro on the neutral range as expected since Friday until ECB. All eyes still on cable and Carney (new BOE Governor from next July) first. Osborne (for the those outside of the UK the Chancellor of the Exchequer/aka "Minister of Finance") is going even wilder calling for even more BOE intervention and threatening with interference (please no more politics in CB across the world !!!) ... IMO, his days in office are counted.

Slightly better than expected Manufacturing numbers but without a stronger miracle, downgrades imminent, another missed debt target (amazing and pathetic) in sight and with the Economy and the Pound on the verge of collapse... there is a nuclear combination for a move in Sterling...

Major levels to track for ECB:

 

  1. DAX 764x for a test of highs and any breach of lows (754x) to open at least 730x in one go.
  2. Gold in a powerful daily/intradday compression range. 169x very strong Resistance open for a fade and 1665 for a break both to 159x. Nothing tradable to the other side r:r wise but lots of stops cluster above 170x that can propel one those WTF moments (coined by Gator) to the other side.
  3. Euro same levels since the range started. With only one level in play 1.364x on the weekly. Like always ECB can and will open the next leg in the pair. Meanwhile euro is neutral.
  4. ES a bit on the sides for the news today. 1504x key level to track. Failure to hold NY will open 147x in one go triggering a retrace leg in play until Washington later. Holding 1504.xx will open 1517x only level available at the highs....]


GL all. Nothing to see or do with positions here until further data. Tracking very very closely cable for the news and the potential massive break down.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #130,203
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:49am Feb 7, 2013 3:49am
halloo, where going the EURO is?
  • #130,204
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:53am Feb 7, 2013 3:53am
Quoting sisse
A new indifferent opening range in European equities. DAX and CAC looks extremely tired after 2 consecutive days without triggering any interest at the highs. Without ECB we are going nowhere to the upside above the highs. We are just one trigger away from a very decent move down.

Euro on the neutral range as expected since Friday until ECB. All eyes still on cable and Carney (new BOE Governor from next July) first. Osborne (for the those outside of the UK the Chancellor of the Exchequer/aka "Minister of Finance") is going even wilder...
just went long on that little pull back to 60, just an intraday pa play, was looking for a break higher to retest yesterday's high, but there seems to be a few offers around here, so closed for +10, which probably means it'll break now, it usually waits for me to lose my nerve...

bit dubious with the rate number and pc just a couple of hours away...

anyway, i hope ur well sisse...
  • #130,205
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:57am Feb 7, 2013 3:57am
Quoting FibbinArchie
just went long on that little pull back to 60, just an intraday pa play, was looking for a break higher to retest yesterday's high, but there seems to be a few offers around here, so closed for +10, which probably means it'll break now, it usually waits for me to lose my nerve...

bit dubious with the rate number and pc just a couple of hours away...
or perhaps not, now looking like a good exit, less confident now as it's failed a 2nd attempt to hold above 70, but let's see...

in any case short-term pa is indicating that maybe the london opening move has run out of juice...
  • #130,206
  • Feb 7, 2013 4:07am Feb 7, 2013 4:07am
Quoting FibbinArchie
just went long on that little pull back to 60, just an intraday pa play, was looking for a break higher to retest yesterday's high, but there seems to be a few offers around here, so closed for +10, which probably means it'll break now, it usually waits for me to lose my nerve...

bit dubious with the rate number and pc just a couple of hours away...
I don't think is any intraday offers at the current levels... We are in the classical intraday just chop zone, in the middle of the middle of the mid of inside bars .... In simple words sucker's area (r:r) except for those very few superb scalpers... my 2 cents...

In any case, big news !!! from Carney...finally some reason in the BOE (implying that BOE should stop the non sense of printing money like mad) ....Watch out for Cable forming a major bottom with the help of TA (weekly failing to break the range on the roll).

sisse

PS: Hatch that can be the trigger we have been talking about for the major moves
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #130,207
  • Feb 7, 2013 4:08am Feb 7, 2013 4:08am
Quoting FibbinArchie
or perhaps not, now looking like a good exit, less confident now as it's failed a 2nd attempt to hold above 70, but let's see...

in any case short-term pa is indicating that maybe the london opening move has run out of juice...
yeap based on those last couple of m1 bars, it looks like there's a big swinging dick defending 70, but let's see...

either that or new info getting priced in... anyone?
  • #130,208
  • Feb 7, 2013 4:12am Feb 7, 2013 4:12am
Quoting sisse
I don't think is any intraday offers at the current levels... We are in the classical intraday just chop zone, in the middle of the middle of the mid of inside bars .... In simple words sucker's area (r:r) except for those very few superb scalpers... my 2 cents...

In any case, big news !!! from Carney...finally some reason in the BOE (implying that BOE should stop the non sense of printing money like mad) ....Watch out for Cable forming a major bottom with the help of TA (weekly failing to break the range on the roll).

sisse

PS: Hatch...
who's mark carney anyway?

also wider yields on spanish 5yr...
  • #130,209
  • Feb 7, 2013 4:15am Feb 7, 2013 4:15am
Quoting sisse
I don't think is any intraday offers at the current levels... We are in the classical intraday just chop zone, in the middle of the middle of the mid of inside bars .... In simple words sucker's area (r:r) except for those very few superb scalpers... my 2 cents...

In any case, big news !!! from Carney...finally some reason in the BOE (implying that BOE should stop the non sense of printing money like mad) ....Watch out for Cable forming a major bottom with the help of TA (weekly failing to break the range on the roll).

sisse

PS: Hatch...
cable since top of the hour...

Inserted Video
  • #130,210
  • Feb 7, 2013 4:16am Feb 7, 2013 4:16am
Quoting FibbinArchie
who's mark carney anyway?

also wider yields on spanish 5yr...
The next BOE (UK Central Bank) Governor which is in his first real public comments. He will start the job in the Summer replacing King.... so in the same league as Bernanke, Draghi, etc

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #130,211
  • Feb 7, 2013 4:20am Feb 7, 2013 4:20am
Quoting sisse
The next BOE (UK Central Bank) Governor which is in his first real public comments. He will start the job in the Summer replacing King.... so in the same league as Bernanke, Draghi, etc

sisse
so merv the perv off to the old knackers yard then...
Attached Image
  • #130,212
  • Feb 7, 2013 4:23am Feb 7, 2013 4:23am
Quoting FibbinArchie
so merv the perv off to the old knackers yard then...
yeap ....Thank God, otherwise these Economic Policy dinosaurs will completely sink the British economy...Osborne next...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #130,213
  • Feb 7, 2013 4:25am Feb 7, 2013 4:25am
Quoting sisse
yeap ....Thank God, otherwise these Economic Policy dinosaurs will completely sink the British economy...Osborne next...

sisse
can't stand that osborne cretin, or cameron either for that matter, don't think that many of the british public can... preferable to gordon brown-trousers mind, god it's no wonder that the majority of the youth just don't bother voting...

cable retracing 50% of the current h1 bar, so far...
  • #130,214
  • Feb 7, 2013 4:36am Feb 7, 2013 4:36am
my brokers, the filthy scoundrels...

i kid of course, have actually found them to have provided a decent service, been with them around four years now...

used to be with barclays, who's platform quite frankly was shit, usually down during the most volatile times of the day, i used to trade ftse mid caps with them... the dealing desk, on the rare occasion that you could get through by phone was staffed by stressed out, and generally rude arse holes... don't know if it's improved any since...

Inserted Video
  • #130,215
  • Feb 7, 2013 5:00am Feb 7, 2013 5:00am
getting closer to the witching hour... shower time... have a good trade...
  • #130,216
  • Feb 7, 2013 5:20am Feb 7, 2013 5:20am
Quoting FibbinArchie
yeap based on those last couple of m1 bars, it looks like there's a big swinging dick defending 70, but let's see...

either that or new info getting priced in... anyone?
hmm, or maybe that's what the sneaky feckers want you to think... hmmmm...

k, laterz...
  • #130,217
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:02am Feb 7, 2013 6:02am
Hm...
  • #130,218
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:13am Feb 7, 2013 6:13am
Quoting Mr Hatch
Hm...
jury is out till after ecb hatches...

a million thanks for sorting that out btw, i owe you one and will get back to you with my thoughts in due course...

and now i must once again head out into the wonderful world of amazon... trade safe if you're planning on trading the draghi volatility...
  • #130,219
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:20am Feb 7, 2013 6:20am
No man land until ECB. ES in Globex ticking above fresh highs before NY. DAX with a very timid and soft intrday bottom in play for ECB. Cable full of action with a 2nd strong (intrday) test of last breakout after the big BOE news in the morning. A bottom in play in H4 but the real deal comes with weekly roll.

No surprises expected in the rate so prolly early lunch and nothing to see until key Draghi conference.

On the side, I was checking a very telling number about our business and FF. Amazing the statistics in the live explorers (whatever the name is). Both bulls and bear are underwater (incredible #s if those are just from live accounts...) and with huge drawdowns. Been checking these numbers every week since January and they always show the same...90% of traders are caught in the wrong side but more importantly they sit over large drawdowns....

...uff this image should be a sticky post on the interactive and system FF forums ...

sisse
Attached Image
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #130,220
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:26am Feb 7, 2013 6:26am
Quoting sisse
No man land until ECB. ES in Globex ticking above fresh highs before NY. DAX with a very timid and soft intrday bottom in play for ECB. Cable full of action with a 2nd strong (intrday) test of last breakout after the big BOE news in the morning. A bottom in play in H4 but the real deal comes with weekly roll.

No surprises expected in the rate so prolly early lunch and nothing to see until key Draghi conference.

On the side, I was checking a very telling number about our business and FF. Amazing the statistics in the live explorers (whatever the...
basic trade psychology at play here mate... holding losers and getting the fuck out of winners as quickly as possible...

have a good one... gawn...
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