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AUD/USD

  • #57,501
  • Feb 6, 2013 4:56pm Feb 6, 2013 4:56pm
I don't know about your charting software - but that gap on the AUD/JPY around 90 is looking mighty attractive right now.
  • #57,502
  • Feb 6, 2013 4:58pm Feb 6, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting bucko
I don't know about your charting software - but that gap on the AUD/JPY around 90 is looking mighty attractive right now.
600 pip drop on a JPY pair!

I wouldn't chance it... I don't see any real "selling" against JPY at the moment. Weekly and Monthly trend is still extremely bullish for ALL JPY cross pairs.
  • #57,503
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:20pm Feb 6, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
600 pip drop on a JPY pair!

I wouldn't chance it... I don't see any real "selling" against JPY at the moment. Weekly and Monthly trend is still extremely bullish for ALL JPY cross pairs.
Still bullish but overbought for a minute.
Extreme caution advised
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When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #57,504
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:34pm Feb 6, 2013 5:34pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yo what's up Bogus! What is your take on AUD/USD at the moment?

Also, curious to hear your thoughts on EUR/AUD as well.

I'm currently:
Flat - AUD/USD
Long - AUD/JPY
Long - EUR/AUD
Hey mate!Sounds like you are doing well. I don't see anything i like on A/U lately. Been trading E/A and mainly E/Y. I see what you're saying about an inverted H&S on E/A on weekly. I'm a day trader so I'm in and out. I'm short E/Y today, up 35 pips at the mo, waiting for a break of 126. E/A is in a 70 pips range. Waiting for the breakout...
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #57,505
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:47pm Feb 6, 2013 5:47pm
Quoting bogus
Hey mate!Sounds like you are doing well. I don't see anything i like on A/U lately. Been trading E/A and mainly E/Y. I see what you're saying about an inverted H&S on E/A on weekly. I'm a day trader so I'm in and out. I'm short E/Y today, up 35 pips at the mo, waiting for a break of 126. E/A is in a 70 pips range. Waiting for the breakout...
Nice to hear you're in the green bro.

I'm also waiting for E/A to breakout already... Seems as though it might be waiting for the news out of Europe though so soon we should get some results with that pair.
  • #57,506
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:51pm Feb 6, 2013 5:51pm
hi 100pips a day

just a word of caution if you thinking audjpy long as it just hit fibo long term target exactly
and is likely to have a bit of a retrace IMO

cheers

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  • #57,507
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:54pm Feb 6, 2013 5:54pm
Quoting Teaj
hi 100pips a day

just a word of caution if you thinking audjpy long as it just hit fibo long term target exactly
and is likely to have a bit of a retrace IMO

cheers

Attachment
Thanks for the advice Teaj, however, I need to follow my system exactly to the T so I wait now until either Stop or Profit target is hit for open positions.

Here are the AUD/JPY statistics since September 2011: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post6422786
  • #57,508
  • Feb 6, 2013 6:05pm Feb 6, 2013 6:05pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Nice to hear you're in the green bro.

I'm also waiting for E/A to breakout already... Seems as though it might be waiting for the news out of Europe though so soon we should get some results with that pair.
Curious what your breakout target / expectations are?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #57,509
  • Feb 6, 2013 6:19pm Feb 6, 2013 6:19pm
Quoting dab
Curious what your breakout target / expectations are?
Start with this post then read through the rest of the thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post6416053

Only like two and a half pages worth of posts...
  • #57,510
  • Feb 6, 2013 7:41pm Feb 6, 2013 7:41pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Start with this post then read through the rest of the thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post6416053

Only like two and a half pages worth of posts...
Thanks, i'll be more than happy if E/A gets anywhere near 1.40 as it would be very likely A/U will also reach my 1.02 target. Good luck!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #57,511
  • Feb 6, 2013 8:04pm Feb 6, 2013 8:04pm
Quoting dab
Thanks, i'll be more than happy if E/A gets anywhere near 1.40 as it would be very likely A/U will also reach my 1.02 target. Good luck!
Well.... the thing is that all this time A/U and AUD/NZD have been falling. Now, AUD/NZD is doing a hail mary and N/U is finally dropping

Just enough to make ya' nervous.... right
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #57,512
  • Feb 6, 2013 8:06pm Feb 6, 2013 8:06pm
now what
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When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #57,513
  • Feb 7, 2013 1:08am Feb 7, 2013 1:08am
Good morning traders,

as this may be relevant to trading the AUD/USD pair, I am sharing my up to date view on the Dollar Index (daily chart below is from yesterday's mid-week update):

The 79.90 area in the Dollar Index looks strong resistance at the moment and it's very possible it will be able to contain higher price. The sequence of measured moves higher failed on the 4-hour timeframe. The short setup at 79.90 has targets at 78.50 (1st) and then 77.70 (2nd) helping price into that larger weekly setup's target at 77.50s, which started with the resistance at the 81.60s, in November.

These are the two updated scenarios I see going forward (refer to the picture below):

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360226968

Scenario 1. Price could start a move lower into the first target at the 78.50 area. It could then continue into the next area of target at 77.70 and into 77.60, after a brief profit taking relief move higher (this is the higher probability scenario).

Scenario 2. After trading down into the 78.50 first area of target price could reverse and start trading higher. This scenario seems less probable at this stage.

Of course we still need further confirmation that the Dollar Index has actually topped in this move. This would coincide with renewed, anticipated strength in the Euro-Dollar cross. Currently the bears are in control of the 15min timeframe and the confirmation of the targets mentioned above and the resistance level would come with price below 79.30. This could take a day or two.

Let me know your thoughts? ty

Have a great day.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #57,514
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:59am Feb 7, 2013 3:59am
1.0304 strong support level
  • #57,515
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:44pm Feb 7, 2013 3:44pm
Aussie still resting on the lows.
Frustrated longs sitting now at 1.0350.
Need something for them to get restless.

RBA monetary statement
China data.

Lets see..

Happy friday
  • #57,516
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:23am Feb 8, 2013 10:23am
Hello all
last time I have tried this...

Quoting fibstalker
my up to date view on the Dollar Index....
the market pulled my nose. So here I am ready to be pulled again.

This is my updated daily view on the Dollar Index which can be relevant for a lot of pairs:

Attachment

The Dollar Index could now be on its way up as the 79.90 level of resistance did not hold. It could retest previous highs or even the top of the channel at the 81.70s. This would probably mean 1.3200 and 1.2900, respectively, for the Euro FX currency futures.

DX is currently trading a daily extension long which offered support today at the 80.10 area. The failure level is 80.00 and that barely held, but I will consider it holding as the DX with its low volume is not always technical.

As usual I have identified two scenarios:

Scenario 1. Price currently trading in extensions long and could hit 80.40 (1st target) and then 80.60 (2nd target). Then it could continue higher in extensions trading the 80.60 support and next long entry, provided that price holds above the 80.45 level.

Scenario 2. After/if trades above the 80.70 level and if price then pierces 80.45 on the downside , price could then retrace all the way to the 80.10 area again before embarking into a move into 81 (1st target) and then 81.70 (2nd target), the top of the channel. At that point , and if we get there, I could get bearish again on the Dollar

Please let me know what you think and your related analysis as well.

Thank you
Have a great weekend.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #57,517
  • Feb 8, 2013 11:53am Feb 8, 2013 11:53am
How to identify a good retracement trading opportunity?


The Aussie dollar had earlier seen some intense selling followed by correction to a fair value this week.
We have identified 1.0342 as the former support & current resistance and hence its a good idea to be in a trade from this level provided we can spot a price action sell signal at this level. Take a look at the H4 chart below and see if you can spot a bearish pin bar reversal signal allowing you to go short either at the 50% level of the pin bar(most popular) or a more conservative entry from the 1.0342 resistance level itself. The only problem with waiting for the price to come back to the resistance is that some times it just doesn't re-test twice.We will look to ride this downtrend at least till 1.0256 and trail our profits from there.

In summary, we have a trade opportunity in AUD/USD: [email protected] - S/L: 1.0401 - T/P: 1.0256
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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PRICE ACTION is the only real time indicator.
  • #57,518
  • Feb 9, 2013 5:53am Feb 9, 2013 5:53am
Weekly EW
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  • #57,519
  • Feb 9, 2013 8:39am Feb 9, 2013 8:39am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Weekly EW
I agree with this count as I have put this same count on the LC's thread three or four times already. This is mu guiding chaart for trading the aussie. There was a time I was thinking that the e was done and that we were going up hard but recent price action suggests we might see parity before the big rally to 1.1xxx and beyond

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #57,520
  • Feb 9, 2013 11:47am Feb 9, 2013 11:47am
Quoting Olu
I agree with this count as I have put this same count on the LC's thread three or four times already. This is mu guiding chaart for trading the aussie. There was a time I was thinking that the e was done and that we were going up hard but recent price action suggests we might see parity before the big rally to 1.1xxx and beyond

Olu
Olu.I hope when 4 is over ATR daily for Aud to be bigeer then 120pips.
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