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  • #27,201
  • Feb 6, 2013 7:27pm Feb 6, 2013 7:27pm
looks like the aud is going to float down like a feather instead of dropping
  • #27,202
  • Feb 6, 2013 7:38pm Feb 6, 2013 7:38pm
thanks for the earlier welcome daddybear

yes your probably right about not hitting as far down as 1.015
although for the time being happy to ride my earlier short as far as possible

given similarities between a few of the usd quote charts at the moment it seems
likely that most currencies will weaken against the usd further - including aud

seeing as this is your thread - anywhere along the way where you expounded your
own personal trading theories? i note you often say 'it was preset' or some variation
and would be interesting to hear your thoughts, general or specific

cheers
  • #27,203
  • Feb 6, 2013 9:30pm Feb 6, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting Teaj
thanks for the earlier welcome daddybear

yes your probably right about not hitting as far down as 1.015
although for the time being happy to ride my earlier short as far as possible

given similarities between a few of the usd quote charts at the moment it seems
likely that most currencies will weaken against the usd further - including aud

seeing as this is your thread - anywhere along the way where you expounded your
own personal trading theories? i note you often say 'it was preset' or some variation
and would be interesting to hear your thoughts,...

I wouldn't call "preset" a trading theory. It is my belief based on the EWP.
daddybearforex. com
  • #27,204
  • Feb 6, 2013 9:54pm Feb 6, 2013 9:54pm
Quoting koalakiller
FEb6,2013 &;55pm If the employment rate increased from 5.8 to 10.4 almost doubling and the unemployment rate advanced form 5.5% to 5.4% why the f dosn't the valu of the aussie increase. What if the same was true for the usd it would have jumped to the moon instead the aussie dropped 40 pips. Anyone dare to explain this? And don't say its was figured in becasue no one knew what the numbers would be.
Although a trader should generally trade the charts, the fundamentals supported a drop. Have to look a little deeper.

Lost 9800 full time jobs but added 20,200 part time jobs for + 10,400. But clearly that is negative despite the headline number.

Further, the participation rate fell, although very little, from 65.1 to 65%. A healthy economy should create full time jobs and labor force participation should increase as people see opportunity. This would imply that the unemployment rate is going to increase in the coming months and increases the odds of an interest rate cut in March, especially since the RBA was dovish and explicitly mentioned they have room to cut rates due to weakness in the economy.

NAB was also weak.

So, has this already been discounted by the market? Perhaps as despite the volatility, there was very little change in the AUD. But the answers lie in the charts, and that is where we should look to discover them.

And yes, people do know before the numbers are released. Some people pay big money to discover this information or at least approximate it. Many have there own economists and models. Every day, the market discounts in the odds.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #27,205
  • Feb 6, 2013 11:11pm Feb 6, 2013 11:11pm
Quoting Teaj
thanks for the earlier welcome daddybear

yes your probably right about not hitting as far down as 1.015
although for the time being happy to ride my earlier short as far as possible

given similarities between a few of the usd quote charts at the moment it seems
likely that most currencies will weaken against the usd further - including aud

seeing as this is your thread - anywhere along the way where you expounded your
own personal trading theories? i note you often say 'it was preset' or some variation
and would be interesting to hear your thoughts,...
The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done; and there is no new thing under the sun
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #27,206
  • Feb 6, 2013 11:13pm Feb 6, 2013 11:13pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done; and there is no new thing under the sun
Sort of like: history repeats itself.
  • #27,207
  • Feb 6, 2013 11:14pm Feb 6, 2013 11:14pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Sort of like: history repeats itself.
Doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme my friend.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #27,208
  • Feb 6, 2013 11:23pm Feb 6, 2013 11:23pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme my friend.
Well said.
  • #27,209
  • Feb 7, 2013 2:47am Feb 7, 2013 2:47am
Quoting PayTheLimit
I'm still long, would like to see 1.0325 taken again with some closes...
seems like this area might be turning into resistance, either way, just got flat for a small loss...my next big level on the downside is 1.0210...at any rate, good luck..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #27,210
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:06am Feb 7, 2013 3:06am
Quoting PayTheLimit
seems like this area might be turning into resistance, either way, just got flat for a small loss...my next big level on the downside is 1.0210...at any rate, good luck..
It has problems to go up indeed. don't like the closes below my 0323 lvl. But it did look good just before LO. Do you rule out a push north now? Or just don't want to stay in this mess?
  • #27,211
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:17am Feb 7, 2013 3:17am
Quoting Stretch
It has problems to go up indeed. don't like the closes below my 0323 lvl. But it did look good just before LO. Do you rule out a push north now? Or just don't want to stay in this mess?
just felt like it spent too much time under 1.0325, so I cut it..will look for something better...might try some shorts in the yen against 94.65 if I get the chance..also watching 3610/15 in the euro, but dont think I'll trade against it, anyway good luck today, later
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #27,212
  • Edited 3:43am Feb 7, 2013 3:29am | Edited 3:43am
Quoting PayTheLimit
just felt like it spent too much time under 1.0325, so I cut it..will look for something better...might try some shorts in the yen against 94.65 if I get the chance..also watching 3610/15 in the euro, but dont think I'll trade against it, anyway good luck today, later
I don't trade yen pairs yet. Bit to much on my plate already, but will gladly take a look at it in the future. Agree completely on to much time under 0325/23 But my "last resort" lvl 0309.9 and a mid 2012 (open/close) at 0306, are still keeping closes above. On my H4 that is.

Have a L eurusd trade atm, but not a great entry. Looking at 3612. BTW I am not stalking you on the #'s, but glad they don't differ so much, really like following your posts! Still eyeing a trade in Gold. Preferably a S near 1690 or a L near 1667 to reach that 1690, but not if it happens on (midday) friday.

Thanks good luck to you too!

(charts audusd, 2 posts down)
  • #27,213
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:30am Feb 7, 2013 3:30am
Now is a good time for techs EWP and trend traders to post their charts
  • #27,214
  • Edited 6:32am Feb 7, 2013 3:40am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting Rampage
Now is a good time for techs EWP and trend traders to post their charts
I don't use EWP (yet) but here are my charts.

A cleaner H4 chart and bloated H1 chart. The H1 chart indicated a Short with trend at 0337 and the close below 0323 helps confirming that. But a good H1 close above 0329 could bring back the bulls.
The H4 chart still looks to have both possibilities in check, depends on next H4 close. (I know that H4 charts can differ..)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_4 Hours_snapshot-07-02-2013.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Hourly_snapshot-07-02-2013.png Size: 33 KB
  • #27,215
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:53am Feb 7, 2013 3:53am
I would like to see a trend traders point of view
  • #27,216
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:58am Feb 7, 2013 3:58am
Thanks for responding Stretch
  • #27,217
  • Feb 7, 2013 5:44am Feb 7, 2013 5:44am
This time you cut the wrong post
Bye DB
  • #27,218
  • Feb 7, 2013 8:49am Feb 7, 2013 8:49am
where the hell is everyone? Maybe i should get to bed myself
  • #27,219
  • Edited 9:32am Feb 7, 2013 9:15am | Edited 9:32am
Aud only moving back-and-forth between 300-330 four times already...i wish i had the nerve to buy when reach 300ish and sell when it 330ish...
  • #27,220
  • Feb 7, 2013 9:34am Feb 7, 2013 9:34am
Quoting Arman_A
where the hell is everyone? Maybe i should get to bed myself
Sorry guys, this is ranging and tons of action in EUR and xau today.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
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