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AUD/USD

  • #57,461
  • Feb 5, 2013 7:48pm Feb 5, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting lasty
You know how they work .. they over tighten and under cut..
You forgot one more thing... They ALL over spend too!
  • #57,462
  • Feb 6, 2013 4:54am Feb 6, 2013 4:54am
Aud/Usd Ew H1 and 15m
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud h1.gif Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud 15m.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #57,463
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:00pm Feb 6, 2013 5:00pm
Thats a bit better.. The Aussie is starting to react like a currency that should with bad economic data and a clueless government.

We have unemployment today.. so its time for the guy at the stats dept to play lucky dip and pull out some unrealistic numeral.

1.0280 seems like a resting post ..Im more interested in 1.0130 though. That should spark some late to the party sellers and enforce a punch through parity play..


How many are on this move remains the question? I'm guessing not many which makes me feel its going to be one of those trends that many regret.
  • #57,464
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:06pm Feb 6, 2013 5:06pm
Quoting lasty
Thats a bit better.. The Aussie is starting to react like a currency that should with bad economic data and a clueless government.
Bad economic data?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-outback.html
Trillions of dollars worth of oil found in Australian outback
Up to 233 billion barrels of oil has been discovered in the Australian outback that could be worth trillions of dollars, in a find that could turn the region into a new Saudi Arabia.
  • #57,465
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:08pm Feb 6, 2013 5:08pm
Quoting lasty
Thats a bit better.. The Aussie is starting to react like a currency that should with bad economic data and a clueless government.

We have unemployment today.. so its time for the guy at the stats dept to play lucky dip and pull out some unrealistic numeral.

1.0280 seems like a resting post ..Im more interested in 1.0130 though. That should spark some late to the party sellers and enforce a punch through parity play..


How many are on this move remains the question? I'm guessing not many which makes me feel its going to be one of those...
I know you are in this trade as can be seen from your posts! Good job Lasty

This thread has been a little quiet lately, I guess not many people playing the AUD/USD at this time...
  • #57,466
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:09pm Feb 6, 2013 5:09pm
Quoting Macdon
Bad economic data?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-outback.html
Trillions of dollars worth of oil found in Australian outback
Up to 233 billion barrels of oil has been discovered in the Australian outback that could be worth trillions of dollars, in a find that could turn the region into a new Saudi Arabia.
I also saw this a few weeks ago. However, this is not the determining factor for the value of their currency.

All kinds of news reports gauge the health of any particular country at any given time, and recently the news coming out of Australia has not been so good.
  • #57,467
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:16pm Feb 6, 2013 5:16pm
So with today's unemployment data what do you guys think?

Up or Down?
  • #57,468
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:19pm Feb 6, 2013 5:19pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
So with today's unemployment data what do you guys think?

Up or Down?
If the data show down AU & AJ will increase right?
  • #57,469
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:21pm Feb 6, 2013 5:21pm
Quoting k3nshinz3139
If the data show down AU & AJ will increase right?
Typically this is how it is:
Bad Numbers - AUD goes Down
Good Numbers - AUD goes Up

If data is mixed we might not have much of a reaction at all...

Due to this past week's moves in AUD/USD I would say there is more risk trying to long this pair then there is shorting it though. So Bulls be careful.
  • #57,470
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:30pm Feb 6, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting Macdon
Bad economic data?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-outback.html
Trillions of dollars worth of oil found in Australian outback
Up to 233 billion barrels of oil has been discovered in the Australian outback that could be worth trillions of dollars, in a find that could turn the region into a new Saudi Arabia.
Yup Australia is full of resources unfortunately 22.8 million people don't have mining helmets.
Lets see how many more dont at 11.30am
  • #57,471
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:33pm Feb 6, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting lasty
Yup Australia is full of resources unfortunately 22.8 million people don't have mining helmets.
Lets see how many more dont at 11.30am
LOL
  • #57,472
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:36pm Feb 6, 2013 5:36pm
Is it me or is there a bearish flag on the 1 hr chart, I would like to play the setup but the chances of getting slipped after the employment data is high.

Thoughts?
  • #57,473
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:40pm Feb 6, 2013 5:40pm
Quoting whyphi
Is it me or is there a bearish flag on the 1 hr chart, I would like to play the setup but the chances of getting slipped after the employment data is high.

Thoughts?
If you are trading smaller time frames such as the H1 I wouldn't chance it right before high impact news data. Larger time frames don't really matter though as news is very rarely capable of changing market direction on Daily and Weekly time frames.
  • #57,474
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:42pm Feb 6, 2013 5:42pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Typically this is how it is:
Bad Numbers - AUD goes Down
Good Numbers - AUD goes Up

If data is mixed we might not have much of a reaction at all...

Due to this past week's moves in AUD/USD I would say there is more risk trying to long this pair then there is shorting it though. So Bulls be careful.

Yeah.. if its another bad number it makes the RBA board look like amateurs. Perhaps they should move their monthly meetings to coincide with economic data releases rather than being stubborn on a first tuesday.
  • #57,475
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:45pm Feb 6, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting lasty
Yeah.. if its another bad number it makes the RBA board look like amateurs. Perhaps they should move their monthly meetings to coincide with economic data releases rather than being stubborn on a first tuesday.
Agreed!

Employment Change looked very weak in January, dropping to a four-month low. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround, with an estimate of 5.8 thousand. However, the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise slightly, from 5.4% to 5.5%.

This type of mixed data could create a knee-jerk reaction either way but overall the effect should be neutral. Probably won't see too much of a reaction, so being that we have broken to the downside the best play would be to sell any type of significant retrace to the upside.

Just my opinion though...
  • #57,476
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:48pm Feb 6, 2013 5:48pm
well looking at the past forecasted numbers that are positive have the potential to be bad and vice versa.

So I wouldn't be expecting an overall good number.

Think I'm going short with a SL above support turned resistance for now. Target will be determined upon how the numbers turn out.
  • #57,477
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:50pm Feb 6, 2013 5:50pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Agreed!

Employment Change looked very weak in January, dropping to a four-month low. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround, with an estimate of 5.8 thousand. However, the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise slightly, from 5.4% to 5.5%.

This type of mixed data could create a knee-jerk reaction either way but overall the effect should be neutral. Probably won't see too much of a reaction, so being that we have broken to the downside the best play would be to sell any type of significant retrace to the upside.

Just my opinion...
So is better to sell AU AJ for short term ?
  • #57,478
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:50pm Feb 6, 2013 5:50pm
Quoting whyphi
well looking at the past forecasted numbers that are positive have the potential to be bad and vice versa.

So I wouldn't be expecting an overall good number.

Think I'm going short with a SL above support turned resistance for now. Target will be determined upon how the numbers turn out.
You are right, that is why I said "typically"

Good choice!
  • #57,479
  • Feb 6, 2013 5:52pm Feb 6, 2013 5:52pm
Quoting k3nshinz3139
So is better to sell AU AJ for short term ?
I personally wouldn't sell ANY JPY cross pair at the moment. AUD may be showing weakness but JPY is showing much much more weakness. JPY has definitely been the weakest pair during the past 4 months or so!

I'm actually long A/J for the mid to long term but I am also long EUR/AUD so they could act as a hedge if worst comes to worst. This is how I am playing AUD at the moment...
  • #57,480
  • Feb 6, 2013 6:33pm Feb 6, 2013 6:33pm
Strange reaction in my opinion.

Employment data was better than expected but not much upwards movement for AUD/USD...



**Now price is moving lower... LOL I guess the Big Boys are looking to sell AUD regardless of the printed figures!
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