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The Really Useless Thread

  • #130,061
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:08am Feb 5, 2013 9:08am
Quoting sisse
Another great day for trading. Most markets and for every taste. Europe out and markets flirting to enter in chop zone across the board but day is not over yet so tracking US afternoon session later...

sisse
totally agree with you on this afternoon. going to take a lunch break here and try and grab some more this afternoon
  • #130,062
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:12am Feb 5, 2013 9:12am
Quoting AllyB
no kidding ... i also have a real hard time staying in once i get so many pips and then think if i get back in i will be buying the top

292 pip range is huge compaired to what we have had to work with this last year so will take a bit of getting used to for me
i am also missing out on some really nice setups , just when i reckon the ADR is filled , it prints another 100 pips
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #130,063
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:14am Feb 5, 2013 9:14am
Quoting gatorinla
France is bitching. Germany is cooking the books. now the med countries are adding France in the depression.. the weight of the entire ez is on Germany's shoulders.
Nay ...nothing we don't already know. In macroeconomic numbers they are still trying to find a bottom, in bond markets they are thousand of miles better than during the panic attacks and in the political front they actually have made some progress, very slowly but they have improved... so no, nothing new really...just the same old story until macro numbers turn around...

Plus I find a lot more important right now in markets all time highs in equities, treasuries finding a bottom and in FX, Cable flirting to enter in (self-inflicted) panic mode....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #130,064
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:14am Feb 5, 2013 9:14am
Quoting AllyB
totally agree with you on this afternoon. going to take a lunch break here and try and grab some more this afternoon

just +71 needed for march target

oh boy....i have lots of free time and lunches planned
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #130,065
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:29am Feb 5, 2013 9:29am
Quoting sisse
Nay ...nothing we don't already know. In macroeconomic numbers they are still trying to find a bottom, in bond markets they are thousand of miles better than during the panic attacks and in the political front they actually have made some progress, very slowly but they have improved... so no, nothing new really...just the same old story until macro numbers turn around...

Plus I find a lot more important right now in markets all time highs in equities, treasuries finding a bottom and in FX, Cable flirting to enter in (self-inflicted) panic mode....

sisse...
its ozz.. German (all ez) unemployment rises, as the Asians cheapen. the trajectory is not so good.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #130,066
  • Feb 5, 2013 10:05am Feb 5, 2013 10:05am
Quoting Gleneagles
just +71 needed for march target

oh boy....i have lots of free time and lunches planned

you won't be able to stay away
  • #130,067
  • Feb 5, 2013 10:17am Feb 5, 2013 10:17am
Quoting gatorinla
its ozz.. German (all ez) unemployment rises, as the Asians cheapen. the trajectory is not so good.
nice reading


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...elf-sustaining

Is The Global Recovery Self-Sustaining?


"To claim a "recovery" based on unlimited Central State borrowing and spending and central bank manipulation of asset valuations is self-sustaining is beyond absurd. Aggregate demand (i.e. debt-based spending) supported by phantom collateral is not sustainable, no matter how many times Keynesian Cargo-Culters and Federal Reserve governors dance around their flickering little camp fire waving dead chickens."
  • #130,068
  • Feb 5, 2013 10:35am Feb 5, 2013 10:35am
Quoting infinitus
nice reading


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...elf-sustaining

Is The Global Recovery Self-Sustaining?


[i]"To claim a "recovery" based on unlimited Central State borrowing and spending and central bank manipulation of asset valuations is self-sustaining is beyond absurd. Aggregate demand (i.e. debt-based spending) supported by phantom collateral is not sustainable, no matter how many times Keynesian Cargo-Culters and Federal Reserve governors dance around their flickering little camp fire waving...
since the dec. German unemployment rates. the usd at 3710 had weakened over 2%
since dec, the yen 11%... 35% since the summer.
so i doubt the unemployment trajectory for Germany is going down.
and Germany is the gem..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #130,069
  • Feb 5, 2013 10:45am Feb 5, 2013 10:45am
ej at the recent high atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #130,070
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:01am Feb 5, 2013 11:01am
Quoting gatorinla
since the dec. German unemployment rates. the usd at 3710 had weakened over 2%
since dec, the yen 11%... 35% since the summer.
so i doubt the unemployment trajectory for Germany is going down.
and Germany is the gem..
the real tragedy in Germany is, that last year was the year with only "few" unemployed people (statistics wise LOL ) and record fiscal revenue.

So one would assume we had fairly good conditions for a balanced government budget. But again we had to take on new debt........


But all is well and fixed........
  • #130,071
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:02am Feb 5, 2013 11:02am
Quoting gatorinla

gbp target 5486
I'd like to see 5510, and try to catch a bounce from there...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #130,072
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:17am Feb 5, 2013 11:17am
Quoting infinitus
the real tragedy in Germany is, that last year was the year with only "few" unemployed people (statistics wise LOL ) and record fiscal revenue.

So one would assume we had fairly good conditions for a balanced government budget. But again we had to take on new debt........


But all is well and fixed........
hatch said it was 11% in dec. +300 or 200k in Germany... since then the yen is 11% cheaper and the usd 1.5/2. ish atm..

the u.s., has a unemployment rate around 8...

the move is yen driven... the boj is not going to let up. if someone starts bitching like the French are doing, we may drop some. if they can consolidate this month, there is normal repatriation in march in japan. any time now.. norm has gotten what he missed last time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #130,073
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:31am Feb 5, 2013 11:31am
Quoting gatorinla
hatch said it was 11% in dec. +300 or 200k in Germany... since then the yen is 11% cheaper and the usd 1.5/2. ish atm..

the u.s., has a unemployment rate around 8...

the move is yen driven... the boj is not going to let up. if someone starts bitching like the French are doing, we may drop some. if they can consolidate this month, there is normal repatriation in march in japan. any time now.. norm has gotten what he missed last time.
Gator, believe it or not, German unemployment rate is at the lowest level in 20 years. The 2 key problems in employment in Germany:

1) is the extreme social protections (applies to Europe in general) that are fantastic during difficult times (like the last recession) but they cripple the economy during the good time. Germany is prolly one of the few that implemented some serious reforms during the "happy" times (not like the rest of the world..US included) and that why it has cope so "well" the current economic collapse in other parts of Europe. Imaging what would have happened without those early reforms!!!.... Point being they need even further structural labour market reforms but below 7% is (sadly if you want) "superb" numbers in historical and in the current circumstances.

2) In the case of Germany the big jump on unemployment was the cost of the reunification with East Germany in the 90s. The forecast was 20 years and we are actually at the end of a successful (like it or not again ....in economic terms and given the initial cost) unification of a country ... the potential of Germany if things start turning around (as they will sooner or later) is immense now....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #130,074
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:52am Feb 5, 2013 11:52am
Quoting sisse
Gator, believe it or not, German unemployment rate is at the lowest level in 20 years. The 2 key problems in employment in Germany:

1) is the extreme social protections (applies to Europe in general) that are fantastic during difficult times (like the last recession) but they cripple the economy during the good time. Germany is prolly one of the few that implemented some serious reforms during the "happy" times (not like the rest of the world..US included) and that why it has cope so "well" the current economic collapse in other parts of Europe....
when you have the rates skewed by a guy working 40 hours 20 years ago. with one working 32 h today..just to keep the rate down. its not an = comparison.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #130,075
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:04pm Feb 5, 2013 12:04pm
uj up 21% since the summer. the boj has to be feeling inflation. the thing about japan is, they import all their oil.
wti oil is up 24 % since the low. so japan is paying 21% uj more... + the rise in u.s. oil, in energy. oil is in most products in some shape or form.. if i did it right, that 45% rise in about 8 months.. actually more, japan uses Brent.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #130,076
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:05pm Feb 5, 2013 12:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
when you have the rates skewed by a guy working 40 hours 20 years ago. with one working 32 h today..just to keep the rate down. its not an = comparison.
Is not true at all is nearly 42 hours per week (check the official data here if you want http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm...pcode=tps00071) and it has been like that the last 2 decades we are talking about but more importantly in economics you cannot just take the rate alone. What it is important is the productivity rate and that's where Germany is on top not only in Europe but in the World....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #130,077
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:11pm Feb 5, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting sisse
Is not true at all is nearly 42 hours per week (check the official data here if you want http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm...pcode=tps00071) and it has been like that the last 2 decades we are talking about but more importantly in economics you cannot just take the rate alone. What it is important is the productivity rate and that's where Germany is on top not only in Europe but in the World....

sisse
chart up to 2008

bbl
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #130,078
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:31pm Feb 5, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
chart up to 2008

bbl
je je je ...come one mate stop with the technicalities ...well didn't realize that.

I think you will need to pay Eurostat to have the latest data (maybe not but I cant be bother) check the official EU stat http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/por...tistics/themes . I am pretty sure the German Government will have a direct access too (but you need to speak German), the last available public numbers I could find was DEC 2011 (Source: Eurostat, LFS, NMS average calculated by EIRO) ... it was 40.5h in Average)

...whatever the exact number is in 2012 is statistically irrelevant as things don't just cut 10 hours in a few months and the last 35 years is +/- the same average... My point is the same....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #130,079
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:31pm Feb 5, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting sisse
Gator, believe it or not, German unemployment rate is at the lowest level in 20 years. The 2 key problems in employment in Germany:

1) is the extreme social protections (applies to Europe in general) that are fantastic during difficult times (like the last recession) but they cripple the economy during the good time. Germany is prolly one of the few that implemented some serious reforms during the "happy" times (not like the rest of the world..US included) and that why it has cope so "well" the current economic collapse in other parts of...


Yes, the official rate is now low. But here in Germany as everywhere else they do a lot of tricks to hide the real numbers. As Hatch noted already: here in Germany we have such things like 1€ jobs. The employer pays 1€ per hour, the rest comes from the government (aka taxpayers). In 2012 600-700.000 people were in 1€ jobs for a few month. And that is only one measurement to "reduce" the unemployment rate. It is like the "inflation-rate": totally escapist

Nevertheless right now it is fairly easy to get a job in Germany. But what will we do, when the demand of German product will weaken further?

Here the "official" unemployment rate of Germany since 1949

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: unemployment germany2.png Size: 105 KB
  • #130,080
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:36pm Feb 5, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting infinitus
Yes, the official rate is now low. But here in Germany as everywhere else they do a lot of tricks to hide the real numbers. As Hatch noted already: here in Germany we have such things like 1€ jobs. The employer pays 1€ per hour, the rest comes from the government (aka taxpayers). In 2012 600-700.000 people were in 1€ jobs for a few month. And that is only one measurement to "reduce" the unemployment rate. It is like the "inflation-rate": totally escapist

Nevertheless right now it is fairly easy to get a job in Germany. But what will...
Thanks for the data....

I know what you mean with the part in bold. Sadly (because it should be private generated and not public subsidized) employ people are employ people despite if the funds come from the private or the the public sector ....from a strictly macroeconomic point of view those €1 private money (the rest the state) workers are not dying in the street and they contribute to consumption, workforce and therefore GDP.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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