Central Banks & Big Players | Page 366 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

How do you know all the positions held by big players? 25 replies

ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies

Central Banks and Big Players: Slight change in code reqd 7 replies

Japanese housewives are wrecking the forecasts of big players! 25 replies

Big players and Forex 4 replies

Attachments: Central Banks & Big Players
Exit Attachments

Central Banks & Big Players

  • #7,301
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:54pm Jan 29, 2013 3:54pm
Quoting Tony112
This morning cost me about 5500$ not considering the fact I missed that epic win.
If it's any consolation Tony that trade would not have been a winner....or did you enter on a 5sec/5pips candle?

Please correct me if I am wrong

8am NY Open @ 1.3430

Price moves 2 pips UP to 1.3432

Buy entry at 1.3432 with SL @ 1.3430

After entry price went down as much as 6 pips to 1.3426

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.jpg Size: 192 KB
  • #7,302
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:47am Jan 31, 2013 8:47am
Quoting Datum
If it's any consolation Tony that trade would not have been a winner....or did you enter on a 5sec/5pips candle?

Please correct me if I am wrong

8am NY Open @ 1.3430

Price moves 2 pips UP to 1.3432

Buy entry at 1.3432 with SL @ 1.3430

After entry price went down as much as 6 pips to 1.3426

Attachment

exactly right, this ny open was a fail.
I didn't enter.... its only a horizontal line I put to show where the entry would have been
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,303
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:27am Feb 1, 2013 5:27am
15 pip candel failed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu5.png Size: 99 KB
Don't give up
  • #7,304
  • Feb 1, 2013 6:45am Feb 1, 2013 6:45am
will you trade NFP today?
Don't give up
  • #7,305
  • Feb 1, 2013 9:06am Feb 1, 2013 9:06am
yup, lost 5 pips on nfp 2 pips on the open...
not a good week... let's call it a week
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,306
  • Edited 5:10pm Feb 1, 2013 5:08pm | Edited 5:10pm
Quoting Tony112
mother of God
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1343309339

I am currently back testing this strategy for the year 2012.

Yesterday, I came across the "Mother Of GOD" trade. Not only was this not an EPIC trade, it would still be UP and running.

London Open at 7.00AM GMT (It's London 8am) at 1.2055 entry 2 pips later at 1.2057. Price never came back.

This weeks high is 1653 pips away from this 1.2057 entry at 1.3710

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MotherOfGOD.jpg Size: 280 KB
  • #7,307
  • Feb 3, 2013 4:30am Feb 3, 2013 4:30am
Hi guys,
I did find this thread a few days ago and now i'm trying to grab the most important posts.
What I could figure out so far is that the rules have changed a bit compared to the 1st post.
What I found is 3 setups:
1.: first movement (at least 2pips ???) after the open
2.: first 5 pip candle after the open
3.: first 5 pip candle after news.

The most important is the high R/R: 140 pip TP and more with a 1 pip SL + Spread (Do you use sometimes a larger SL ?)

Could you please comment if I got that right ?
What method do you currently trade or do you mix it ?

Thanks

xpie
  • #7,308
  • Feb 4, 2013 2:13am Feb 4, 2013 2:13am
why did I miss it?

why did i stay in front of the monitor with no click on the sell?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 99 KB
Don't give up
  • #7,309
  • Feb 4, 2013 2:20am Feb 4, 2013 2:20am
float boat
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 182.gif Size: 21 KB
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,310
  • Feb 4, 2013 2:21am Feb 4, 2013 2:21am
Quoting geomink
why did I miss it?

why did i stay in front of the monitor with no click on the sell?
don't worry it's gonna go up... I feel the snake's gonna bite back this time
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,311
  • Feb 4, 2013 3:46pm Feb 4, 2013 3:46pm
I just finished my 2012 tick back test.

Method.
Forex Tester tick data

Rules.
1. Enter @ London Open and New York Open (2 trades per day)
2. Enter when price moves 2 pips in 1 direction. (Enter sell if price went down 2 pips and vice versa)
3. SL is set at 2 pips (1pip + 1 pip spread)
4. Move SL @ BE when price moves 5 pips in our favor from entry.


Highlights.
1. As you can see as per attachment TP 800 is the champion of the year 2012
2. You will also notice TP 30 has almost no draw-down
3. Any TP will make you money
4. I know this is no news but this strategy does work.



Notes.
The back test revealed that 70% of the trade will be losses. This is very difficult for some traders. Me included. I was just testing it and I sometimes got emotional after series of more than 20 losses. I can't imagine how I would feel if capital was down the line.

Excel sheet info.
In the "Raw Data" sheet "Max Win" refers to the maximum price went until it came back to entry.
There are a few cases where price never came back. But as it is already over 800, it is irrelevant to this back test.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012.jpg Size: 34 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Tony112 CBBP 2012 Back Test.xlsx   130 KB | 527 downloads
  • #7,312
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:16pm Feb 4, 2013 6:16pm
Quoting Datum
I just finished my 2012 tick back test.

Method.
Forex Tester tick data

Rules.
1. Enter @ London Open and New York Open (2 trades per day)
2. Enter when price moves 2 pips in 1 direction. (Enter sell if price went down 2 pips and vice versa)
3. SL is set at 2 pips (1pip + 1 pip spread)
4. Move SL @ BE when price moves 5 pips in our favor from entry.


Highlights.
1. As you can see as per attachment TP 800 is the champion of the year 2012
2. You will also notice TP 30 has almost no draw-down
3. Any TP will make you money
4. I know this is no...


personally, this method is impossible for me to trade. my broker, ig index (u.k.),during london open, raises its spread to around 4 pips ! minimum stop they allow is 10 pips.

so, not feasable for me.

imagine having a 10 pips stop loss which got hit every day, bar that one epic win. that epic win wil not help recover your balance if you are losing 10 pips every day. awful.
#
nonetheless, i had an epic win this morning at l.o. (well, amost an epic win !). made 30 pips on the open of the first 1 minute candle, entering in that direction. of course this wont happen everyday. just got lucky today.


from your backtest, which days of the week did you see the trades take off without the stop being hit ? might there be a pattern as to which part of the week the trades are likely to succeed the most ?
  • #7,313
  • Edited 6:59pm Feb 4, 2013 6:37pm | Edited 6:59pm
Quoting Datum
I just finished my 2012 tick back test.

Method.
Forex Tester tick data

Rules.
1. Enter @ London Open and New York Open (2 trades per day)
2. Enter when price moves 2 pips in 1 direction. (Enter sell if price went down 2 pips and vice versa)
3. SL is set at 2 pips (1pip + 1 pip spread)
4. Move SL @ BE when price moves 5 pips in our favor from entry.


Highlights.
1. As you can see as per attachment TP 800 is the champion of the year 2012
2. You will also notice TP 30 has almost no draw-down
3. Any TP will make you money
4. I know...
Great job with the backtest, Datum. I summarized the drawdown figures for each series in the attached picture. It is interesting to note that on a risk adjusted return basis (Stirling ratio), Tony's 150 pip SL is the best performer. Risk adjusted return is important because it has a direct impact on how much leverage may be used by a particular strategy. Profit / max drawdown is also known as the Stirling ratio.

There is more than one way to measure risk adjusted return, however. Sharpe ratio and Sortino ratio are two other methods.

In fact, the optimal strategy to use with Kelly leverage will maximize the Sharpe ratio. The Sharpe ratio penalizes Tony's strategy due to the large standard deviation of upside returns and as a result it is higher on the lower TPs (but the Sharpe ratios produced are not particularly high). High returns (epic wins) from Tony's strategy are not necessarily bad, however, for our purposes. The Sortino ratio tilts towards the bigger profits because they are not penalized.

Quote
Investors can use a range of measures to gauge the suitability of investments. The Sharpe Ratio, for example, measures the risk-efficiency of investments by using standard deviation to represent risk. A disadvantage of this approach is that this penalizes both downside and upside volatility. Given that investors don’t mind (and indeed welcome) large upwards movements in price, the Sharpe Ratio may not best represent investor psychology. The Sortino Ratio, however, only penalizes downside risk...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Tony_Sys_Summary_RAR.png Size: 5 KB


Thanks again, and I will be studying this spreadsheet in more detail.
  • #7,314
  • Feb 4, 2013 7:28pm Feb 4, 2013 7:28pm
One final contribution before I go back into lurk mode on this thread. The concept of diversification that was pioneered by Markowitz basically says that by combining low correlated systems you can improve return / risk through diversification. To put this to the test, I just combined the equity curves of all 8 of the strategies into a single equity curve (through a simple average of the 8 curves), and ran the same script on the combo curve. These are the results from the test:

Attached Image


Highlighted in yellow are the drawdown and return / drawdown statistics. Note how returns increased and the drawdown is now less than TP 30 for a combo system that has almost double profit vs. the TP 30. Interesting, no?
  • #7,315
  • Edited 9:17pm Feb 4, 2013 9:16pm | Edited 9:17pm
Quoting whatfx
personally, this method is impossible for me to trade. my broker, ig index (u.k.),during london open, raises its spread to around 4 pips ! minimum stop they allow is 10 pips.

so, not feasable for me.

imagine having a 10 pips stop loss which got hit every day, bar that one epic win. that epic win wil not help recover your balance if you are losing 10 pips every day. awful.
I have an IG account and minimum SL is 5 pips for the EURUSD, but even that is not an issue as one could stay in front of the computer until BE or simply close trade as soon as price goes down 2 pips. I did not know they raised spread that much, does that happen often?

Quoting whatfx
from your backtest, which days of the week did you see the trades take off without the stop being hit ? might there be a pattern as to which part of the week the trades are likely to succeed the most ?
The week is pretty well distributed in terms of winning days. I guess Thursday is the day that got the least winning trades.
  • #7,316
  • Feb 4, 2013 9:34pm Feb 4, 2013 9:34pm
Quoting FXEZ
It is interesting to note that on a risk adjusted return basis (Stirling ratio), Tony's 150 pip SL is the best performer.
It's funny you mention the TP 150 as being the best performer. I remember thinking the equity curve of the TP 150 was the best looking of them all. Definitly not in it's smoothness but in it's steadiness.


Quoting FXEZ

Highlighted in yellow are the drawdown and return / drawdown statistics. Note how returns increased and the drawdown is now less than TP 30 for a combo system that has almost double profit vs. the TP 30. Interesting, no?
That is very interesting indeed! So If I understand correclty before each trade I should throw a dice to see which TP I should go for and that will allow me to end up having less drawdown than most solid TP methods and MORE profit than any TP of 100 or lower. Is this correct?
  • #7,317
  • Feb 4, 2013 9:56pm Feb 4, 2013 9:56pm
Quoting Datum
It's funny you mention the TP 150 as being the best performer. I remember thinking the equity curve of the TP 150 was the best looking of them all. Definitly not in it's smoothness but in it's steadiness.

That is very interesting indeed! So If I understand correclty before each trade I should throw a dice to see which TP I should go for and that will allow me to end up having less drawdown than most solid TP methods and MORE profit than any TP of 100 or lower. Is this correct?
No. By taking the average of the 8 TP cases presented it is equivalent to taking your initial entry position and dividing it by 8. So .125 percent of the initial position would be taken off at 20 TP, 0.125 of the initial position at 30 TP, and so forth until the final 1/8 of the initial position hits the 800 TP or stops out.

To get the diversification effect you need to effectively trade all 8 of the systems. This is why I say you effectively take off one eighth of a position at each progressive TP level. Randomly selecting a TP will have unpredictable results and will not replicate the results previously posted achieved through diversification.

As an example, let's say you are trading 8000 units on each trade according to your account size and money management strategy. If the system triggers a buy, you buy 8000 and set the stop for the full amount and move it to BE according to the rules. But you also set a TP at 20 pips for 1000 units, 1000 units at 30 pips profit, and so forth on up to 800 pips where the final 1000 unit TP will be placed. This is essentially progressive take profits. If the 20 pip TP is hit, don't forget to reduce the size of your initial stop from 8000 to 7000.

HTH
  • #7,318
  • Feb 4, 2013 10:38pm Feb 4, 2013 10:38pm
The posts above are deep. My account balance is standing at a record. I took a 120 pip profit.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,319
  • Feb 4, 2013 10:39pm Feb 4, 2013 10:39pm
Hey I feel like I gave to much information lol. 8 years of knowledge for free. I wonder how it will come back to me.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,320
  • Feb 4, 2013 10:41pm Feb 4, 2013 10:41pm
It's surprising to see that there are not a lot of people that reach into sucess though. Even though this method is making me hundreds of thousands of dollars, the thread is still very quiet at some times. I makes me think of an aspect of life where some individual can never be changed. It's just like trying to make a dog read a book. He'll never be able. So interesting.
Invest in alarm clocks
3 traders viewing now