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  • #26,881
  • Feb 4, 2013 12:03pm Feb 4, 2013 12:03pm
Quoting USD-Bear
consensus is no rate cut, am I correct?
Yes, but CNBC expects a surprise cut.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,882
  • Feb 4, 2013 12:05pm Feb 4, 2013 12:05pm
Quoting USD-Bear
consensus is no rate cut, am I correct?
I would say the chatter is no rate cut but there is no way to know the market consensus or probability discounted into current price until after the fact unless you have EWP map like DaddyBear.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #26,883
  • Feb 4, 2013 12:20pm Feb 4, 2013 12:20pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
I would say the chatter is no rate cut but there is no way to know the market consensus or probability discounted into current price until after the fact unless you have EWP map like DaddyBear.
Bear theory following latest move from 1.0360 to 1.0440:
1. retail-traders don't expect rate cut and dare bargain hunting before the fact
2. pro-traders (bastards) drive price up inviting bargain hunters to create volume and sell heavily before the fact
At least both theories would suit me
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,884
  • Feb 4, 2013 1:14pm Feb 4, 2013 1:14pm
WLY Flat with DLY Zigzag?
DLY Chart:
Now how to get Long and when?
Cheers,
U2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 130204_DLY[1] AUDUSD.png Size: 24 KB
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #26,885
  • Feb 4, 2013 1:21pm Feb 4, 2013 1:21pm
ASX Target Rate Tracker link (http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm)
  • #26,886
  • Feb 4, 2013 1:36pm Feb 4, 2013 1:36pm
Yeah i just exited the long 70 pips + some swaps
  • #26,887
  • Feb 4, 2013 1:40pm Feb 4, 2013 1:40pm
Quoting Kissa
Yeah i just exited the long 70 pips + some swaps
congrats
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,888
  • Feb 4, 2013 1:46pm Feb 4, 2013 1:46pm
Another pair I follow these days is audcad - about two weeks ago, audcad broke a year old downtrend line (which is actually a part of a year old triangle) - and it has tested it two days ago only to bounce to the upside.

It may suggest a major move higher tonight. Then again, I fully anticipate big CAD weakness in the coming weeks/months. At the same time... if audusd were to move higher tonight based on lack of rate cut, I do not expect it to be a long lasting move - that is, not a move that will breach the triangle line - thus, even if moving higher 100-150 pips higher after tonight, according to the scenario of three inverse hammer monthly candles - audusd would then reverse back to 1.04 by the end of the month.

This, of course, is what I expect if aud does move higher tonight. If it moves lower though.... audcad signal would be a major fail^^

In any case.... some people may want to look at audcad to see what I mean. it does signal a move up.
I continue to be bearish on usdaud only because of triangle formation and two inverse hammer candles in the past two months.
  • #26,889
  • Feb 4, 2013 2:26pm Feb 4, 2013 2:26pm
good morning koala!
  • #26,890
  • Feb 4, 2013 2:41pm Feb 4, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting arcticwolf
good morning koala!
Morning wolfman.

Hows your trade? Today is a big day
  • #26,891
  • Feb 4, 2013 3:07pm Feb 4, 2013 3:07pm
some of my long term sells are getting better ,it has been a steady start to the year but I am making money. Yes I have to go into town and get back here by 1pm but I can't see rates being cut
Quoting HelloOz
Morning wolfman.

Hows your trade? Today is a big day
  • #26,892
  • Feb 4, 2013 3:09pm Feb 4, 2013 3:09pm
Quoting arcticwolf
some of my long term sells are getting better ,it has been a steady start to the year but I am making money. Yes I have to go into town and get back here by 1pm but I can't see rates being cut
Good man. As long as your trades leave you with a net positive rather than net negative, its all that matters.
  • #26,893
  • Feb 4, 2013 3:27pm Feb 4, 2013 3:27pm
Quoting arcticwolf
some of my long term sells are getting better ,it has been a steady start to the year but I am making money. Yes I have to go into town and get back here by 1pm but I can't see rates being cut
Keep an eye on your trades as we have trade balance data out at 11.30pm

Rates cut or not, we will see spike and volatility
Currently im flat
  • #26,894
  • Edited 4:20pm Feb 4, 2013 4:03pm | Edited 4:20pm
Quoting HelloOz
Keep an eye on your trades as we have trade balance data out at 11.30pm

Rates cut or not, we will see spike and volatility
Currently im flat
A FLAT koala? How does it look like?
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,895
  • Feb 4, 2013 4:18pm Feb 4, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Bear theory following latest move from 1.0360 to 1.0440:
1. retail-traders don't expect rate cut and dare bargain hunting before the fact
2. pro-traders (bastards) drive price up inviting bargain hunters to create volume and sell heavily before the fact
At least both theories would suit me

IMO retail traders have no impacts on the Aussie movements. NO. 1 is not a reliable assumption. As to No. 2, there are big bear boys and big bull boys. It's not that easy to manipulate the Forex markets.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,896
  • Feb 4, 2013 4:22pm Feb 4, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting DaddyBear
A FLAT koala? How does it look like?
flat koala.. the chick skinned me alive for my fur..

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_W_Fbx0s9-n...fur+coat_3.JPG
  • #26,897
  • Feb 4, 2013 4:29pm Feb 4, 2013 4:29pm
Quoting USD-Bear
congrats
Thanks, AudUsd has been dificult for me lately but it is on my favored pair list, just need to be real patient, good to keep up with it as i believe more volatility might be in order soon.

Maximmm mentioned audcad, id like to ad audnzd and gbpnzd at the current lvl H1 are of interest atm. up or down well see in a moment.
  • #26,898
  • Feb 4, 2013 5:59pm Feb 4, 2013 5:59pm
http://i.imgur.com/rmqdM.gif
  • #26,899
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:43pm Feb 4, 2013 6:43pm
closed all my AU shorts
+109
+99
-33

AU H1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0142.jpg Size: 106 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,900
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:50pm Feb 4, 2013 6:50pm
Quoting USD-Bear
closed all my AU shorts
+109
+99
-33

AU H1:
Attachment
why?
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