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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #123,041
  • Feb 4, 2013 5:57pm Feb 4, 2013 5:57pm
Quoting Armagedoom
Hey Meshka, I was looking into GBP USD and saw your post:
http://i.imgur.com/ZoOOjFl.png

There is DBHLC on a 23 fib ret with confluence on the S/R on the chart.

The question is, do you wait for the retracement to enter after a DBHLC which closes so far away from the bouncing area?
(Or long PA bars like that one)

After such long PA bars, I should wait for retracement before entering, shouldnt I?

Thank you!
yes I wait for price coming back... retrace to certain level. I dont like big stop losses if there is a need of big stop loss in most cases I better skip the trade.

In this cable trade I sold at double weekly daily level earlier, but daily candle closed above it which is not so good. watching it closely...

Interesting what will happen with my GBPAUD hysteria orders this night lol
all is eternal - this is good news for people who loves bad news
  • #123,042
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:02pm Feb 4, 2013 6:02pm
Hi guys,

here you have a good one.

Good trading.
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  • #123,043
  • Feb 4, 2013 7:01pm Feb 4, 2013 7:01pm
What's up, guys? what about this nzd usd pair? Seems to be a pin bar at the swing high and a strong ppz. Nose seems to be not long enough, but there is a proxy eye near to it. is it a valid setup?
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  • #123,044
  • Feb 4, 2013 7:16pm Feb 4, 2013 7:16pm
Took two thirds off and reduced SL to 1.5755 which, got hit for a 12 pip loss.

Did not like all the long wicks pointing down on the hourly.
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  • #123,045
  • Feb 4, 2013 8:47pm Feb 4, 2013 8:47pm
Ghous, CryAgony,

Thank you for the explanation on the pinbar. I find it very helpful.

---

Quoting mbqb11
Hey Kenny

That is something I often refer to as a wick bar on the daily. It's almost a pinbar but it's very weak as you said. These often fill up through the wick. You are better off watching the box area for buys and sells

Here was the chart I am watching that I think is going to give us a great area to watch


Best
Mike
Mike, Ghous,

It seems like price finds difficulty penetrating the 144.846 level. With two pin bar forming (nearly a DBL but not), can we expect price to move up instead of pulling back to the top of the box?

I've attached the chart bellow.

---

Recently, I've read the book "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas (Thank you for the recommendation, Ghous ). It talks about our trading psychology and being discipline in our trading method. However, I find it hard to put into practice as our trading style are quite subjective. Is there any way that we can stay disciplined yet be flexible in our trading style?




Happy trading everyone!

Kenny
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  • #123,046
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:57pm Feb 4, 2013 11:57pm
Quoting ken.b
Ghous, CryAgony,

Thank you for the explanation on the pinbar. I find it very helpful.

---



Mike, Ghous,

It seems like price finds difficulty penetrating the 144.846 level. With two pin bar forming (nearly a DBL but not), can we expect price to move up instead of pulling back to the top of the box?

I've attached the chart bellow.

---

Recently, I've read the book "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas (Thank you for the recommendation, Ghous ). It talks about our trading psychology and being discipline in our trading method. However,...
Hey Kenny,

It may do that, in which case we're simply looking for the next setup. We have outlined an area we know makes sense to go long at and should price decide to rally without touching it, then so be it. Remember we are waiting with a sniper in ambush, for the perfect opportunity where we can stack as many odds in our favor as possible. At first it can really hurt to just pass a trade setup and then seeing it do exactly what you wanted it to do (in this case shoot higher). Its always tempting to want to weigh every individual setup by virtue of its result but quite frankly its the most devastating way of assessing your analytical skills. Poor setups will at times go for hundreds of pips and great setups will at times, well not live up to their expectations - which is just the way the market is made. Its full of booby traps and is incompatible with emotions. With some practice you will learn to prioritize logic and reasoning above emotions (internal urges, prior trading results affecting your trading decisions, greed, fear etc) on a consistent basis which is when you would have accomplished yourself as a trader.

And this gets me to your next (AWESOME!) question:

There is a lot of amazing literature and other material on "psychology of trading" and a good bit of this stuff hits the nail on the head with respect to the correct trading attitude. However just as you can't drive perfectly by merely reading the driving manual until you get behind the steering wheel and practice, likewise reading alone doesn't solve the problem of the mind getting in between you and your success at trading. Don't get me wrong. It can be tremendously helpful in setting you on the right path. That is, it helps in laying down the path and illuminating check points for you so when you see them, you know you're in the right direction. What it can't do is put you on steroids, so you find consistency the next week as opposed to the less appealing average, or even below average time it generally takes to "make it" in this business.

Think about it, we know for a fact that good and correct mindset is probably the most important and the bulk of the requirements for successful trading. If all it took to get it, was to read a psychology book, the book would be worth its weight in gold (more than that in fact!) rather than priced at $31.5 for a new copy in hard cover at an online book store!

Learning to trade takes time, and the quickest way to do that is to simply accept this fact and prepare to work really hard.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #123,047
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:12am Feb 5, 2013 12:12am
Quoting ghous
Hey Steve,

yes the pin bar in discussion was preceded by a big bearish bar. Importantly, big strong bars spreading over hundreds of pips aren't always indicative of strength. Now I am sure I am taking a lot of people by surprise as we're told the bigger the bar the better. Thing is, it once again boils down to the story going on. I am NOT talking about a big pin bar off a big PPZ in which case the big pin bar is obviously taken to be a strong signal. What I am talking about is a strong bar where price is heading into a PPZ as was the case...

Price dropping hard into a support zone isn't necessarily an indication that it wants to break through.

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #123,048
  • Feb 5, 2013 1:56am Feb 5, 2013 1:56am
Quoting ghous
Price dropping hard into a support zone isn't necessarily an indication that it wants to break through.

g.
That's a very impressive example. Unfortunately I cannot display or trade that currency pair (GBPTRY - directly, anyway). Those two bars taken together (i.e. 2-day bars chart) would form an impressive pinbar.

The sudden weakness followed by sudden recovered strength in GBPTRY corresponds to the amazing weakening/strengthening of the GBP as we have seen across other pairs (like EURGBP) over the past couple of days. At least I found it amazing. Of course currency pairs are correlated with other currency pairs through some common element (currencies in common, risk on / risk off, safe-haven, etc.). It still amazes me how each currency pair behaves in many ways like it is the only pair out there, respecting various trend lines and S/R, etc., and yet we know there is this correlation thing going on.
  • #123,049
  • Feb 5, 2013 2:59am Feb 5, 2013 2:59am
Quoting Aretes
What's up, guys? what about this nzd usd pair? Seems to be a pin bar at the swing high and a strong ppz. Nose seems to be not long enough, but there is a proxy eye near to it. is it a valid setup?
Hi Aretes,
personally I would not take set up like this. Here are my reasons:
look into what we´re trading, there is all sort of mess just below your pin bar (this itself would stop me from taking trade like this), there´s risk that price will bounce from this mess and move upwards, also trade management would be difficult for me.

Personally I´d prefer to see break up with confirmation, below is chart where´s marked what I mean.
Again this is just my personal opinion, I´m still learning so you might want to wait for explanation from some of senior members

Mav
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  • #123,050
  • Feb 5, 2013 5:06am Feb 5, 2013 5:06am
Does the S&P500 look like turning just to me ?
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  • #123,051
  • Feb 5, 2013 5:07am Feb 5, 2013 5:07am
What do you think about BUOB on eurusd? TL+RN 1.35
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Sorry for my bad English
  • #123,052
  • Feb 5, 2013 6:09am Feb 5, 2013 6:09am
Quoting Sergeant88
What do you think about BUOB on eurusd? TL+RN 1.35
I like it but SL would have been too wide. EU could have been traded today off the test of HCR imho.

GBPAUD also looks interesting, i'm looking to get back into the trade, wanna see how this H4 candle is gonna close

GBPJPY looks sexy too: attached an idea for tomorrow, in case it closes as a BUOB
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  • #123,053
  • Feb 5, 2013 6:24am Feb 5, 2013 6:24am
Quoting Aretes
What's up, guys? what about this nzd usd pair? Seems to be a pin bar at the swing high and a strong ppz. Nose seems to be not long enough, but there is a proxy eye near to it. is it a valid setup?
Hi Aretes,

Price is losing momentum. (See the blue lines). I believe this signifies that the uptrend is going to end soon. Perhaps we should look for a bearish breakout signal.

I'm still new but I just want to point out the divergence for you.

Happy trading

Kenny
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  • #123,054
  • Feb 5, 2013 6:32am Feb 5, 2013 6:32am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Trade PB's that pull back on a trend and enjoy a winning 90%. CT trading is just stupid and a good way to blow out a account. Yes when I started doing PB's I CT traded them because that's when they show up 95% of the time. If I did not know what I was doing I would of been screwed many of the times.

Mike has a good point, think of playing the market like playing cards, only trade the rich deck's and dont screw with the 4-9 off-sute's. If you are going to CT something you better have your charts correct and know that it will not be a long term...
guys, what are the differences between trading on trend pullback and ct trading? btw, thanks a million for the quick replies!
  • #123,055
  • Feb 5, 2013 6:43am Feb 5, 2013 6:43am
Quoting ghous
Hey Kenny,

It may do that, in which case we're simply looking for the next setup. We have outlined an area we know makes sense to go long at and should price decide to rally without touching it, then so be it. Remember we are waiting with a sniper in ambush, for the perfect opportunity where we can stack as many odds in our favor as possible. At first it can really hurt to just pass a trade setup and then seeing it do exactly what you wanted it to do (in this case shoot higher). Its always tempting to want to weigh every individual setup by virtue...
Hi Ghous,

Thanks for reminding me to wait for a A-grade setup. I have been waiting for a breakout for quite some time but when it didn't manage to pullback to the top of the box, the fear of missing out cause me to find reasons to take a trade. My emotion manage to trick me this time but I won't give up on trading.
  • #123,056
  • Edited 7:00am Feb 5, 2013 6:56am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting Aretes
guys, what are the differences between trading on trend pullback and ct trading? btw, thanks a million for the quick replies!
Hi buddy,

when you trade countertrend, you face a huge move against which your PA might not be sufficient to reverse the trend.

When you trade on pullbacks, basically you trade the end of the retracements along the main trend. You follow the main flow, ie HH & HL for an up trend, and you buy at the "HL" along the trendline.
Basically, it comes back to picking bullish PA signals at swing lows AND along the main trend.
Have a look at the GBPPLN chart attached. You could sell at each arrow, at retracements along the downward move / descending TL.


There is a great video Mike has done and posted on the public section of the PF. Among all the great vids you'll find there. I can't exactly remember which one it is, probably the "space Vs traffic" one.
I would recommend you to have a look at these videos, golden nuggets

hope this makes sense...

take care
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Slow & steady
  • #123,057
  • Feb 5, 2013 8:31am Feb 5, 2013 8:31am
Quoting ken.b
Ghous, CryAgony,

Thank you for the explanation on the pinbar. I find it very helpful.

---



Mike, Ghous,

It seems like price finds difficulty penetrating the 144.846 level. With two pin bar forming (nearly a DBL but not), can we expect price to move up instead of pulling back to the top of the box?

I've attached the chart bellow.

---

Recently, I've read the book "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas (Thank you for the recommendation, Ghous ). It talks about our trading psychology and being discipline in our trading...
Hey Kenny

Check out that before chart I posted. Look at where price bounced. Your box IS correct. but the stronger confluence for me is the Rising TL right into the BRN. That box is useful in my view ONLY if price gets UNDER the TL.

I've attached the before and after again. We could be seeing an exhaustion move now though


Learning to be disciplined and flexible. Learning to be "psychologically" ok in trading is nothing more then Persistence and dedication to your business. You have to really learn your method. This comes from time and experience. From experiencing so many situations and applying ones thought process(and using all the past experiences and changes made) to then make a proper future decision. I am a big believer in the psychological side of trading but i don't think like most people approach it. To me the psychological side is more about recognizing and individuals problem areas(as well as good areas) and being able to fix or exploit that. For example if one is over trading, this is both a method/psychological issue. So you have to attack and fix that issue until it is fixed. Then you work on the next and the next. But the true FIX is learning your method and trusting your method. Then all of a sudden the psych issues seems to disappear

If you have more questions let me know
Best
Mike
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  • #123,058
  • Feb 5, 2013 8:52am Feb 5, 2013 8:52am
Hey guys,

A spectecular "Fake Out" is just forming at 1,3 level on EURAUD with head and shoulders formation.
I am quite sure that the presence of the fake out formation and the strengthness of 1,3 level cannot be questionned. IMO there is fairly enough space for the trade.

Howrever this trend is extremely powerful I am not sure how wise it would be to fight against it even if with the support of a strong fake out/head and shoulders formation.

What do you think?
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  • #123,059
  • Feb 5, 2013 8:53am Feb 5, 2013 8:53am
Quoting Sergeant88
What do you think about BUOB on eurusd? TL+RN 1.35
Hey S

I'd be careful with that situation. If you look at your TL it doesn't start from a direct swing low but rather that little "bump" after the true swing low. This sort of curve fits it for me. Then we end up with a lot of bearish action and a medium sized buob just off a BRN. Loses a lot of the confluence. Also can see price didn't close too strong either. BRN might hold here but being in all that drawdown without more confluence or information can be tough

Best
Mike
  • #123,060
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:27am Feb 5, 2013 9:27am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey S

I'd be careful with that situation. If you look at your TL it doesn't start from a direct swing low but rather that little "bump" after the true swing low. This sort of curve fits it for me. Then we end up with a lot of bearish action and a medium sized buob just off a BRN. Loses a lot of the confluence. Also can see price didn't close too strong either. BRN might hold here but being in all that drawdown without more confluence or information can be tough

Best
Mike
Thanks for the answer!
Sorry for my bad English
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