Euro/Dollar

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_me...pqxmo1_500.png

Dear all,
even if that is not on top of your minds, I would like to apologize for having broken Rule #3 with my posts.
I am not going to include links in my posts any more.

Sorry for being annoying.
Cheers
G.

hello Rob,
thank you (for all). Of course one scenario in the S&P500 is swiftly changing into the second one. Can't tell if this chap is going to break below 1487, but if that happens it should find support at 1476 along with the Euro FX at 1.3460s.

Hello all,
how are you guys. I see you have got the party started w/out me....
Well done!

don't worry dude, as long as you post charts and you are concern about your trading, and your account balance it is all fine,
Seems like since I loose policy in here a bit there are people who are only interested in showing other websites rather than participate and share with others, Twee is aware of that.
I just don't like when somebody is piggybacking other people success, and great traders droped their opinion here, it is not fair for them.
Nothing wrong with owning personal blog or website, but promotion is banned in FF let's respect that.

Euro

We are having what I would described as profit taking atm, those who long at 1,20xx 1,30 & 1,34 took what market gave them and some others initiate shorts in anticipation of solid retracement,
I am expecting test of monthly pivot @ 1,3409 , I think we will consolidate in this area maybe even for the whole feb, before any major move (up or down)
We are getting some comments about situation in europe, but I agree with Sisse from useless thread that this is just noise for now.
I think we need another test of this year high and failed attempt to break that barrier with help from some solid fundie side to consider deeper shorts.
Remember it takes both to create new trend - technical level and fundamental push, both act more less at the same time.

http://s7.postimage.org/qg7gir23f/euro.gif
picture sharing

Sterling

H4 showing double bottom atm but that trick didn't last long last week, I will be watching closely this week's candle, If we fail to go down that red trendline I will be holding for 1.63 minimum with attempt to hold for longer/higher target
We had a good reaction about 1,5690 and I want to see now if we can break 5890/5900 area, Will close those longs if we fail to do so
Goldman's boy will be important pusher here btw

http://s11.postimage.org/3yjal1q1f/gbp.gif
free photo hosting

not much more to say atm, just watching and waiting for things to unfold.
regards
Tom

real nice call for the run to 1.37 post NFP, and then reverse

http://www.zionnational-park.com/ima...yon-zv_jpg.jpg

Good Morning traders,
this is my up to date view for the EUR/USD (Euro FX futures) on the 4-hour chart. As usual I am interested to your comments:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360055101

By trading above the 1.3517 level the Fibonacci Stalking technique confirmed support in the 1.3450-60 area. Price traded a low at 1.3462. In the 1.3450-60 there is long interest of professional and program trading.

I can see two scenarios at the moment:

Scenario 1. Price could continue straight higher from here. The target for the swing that could have just started is at 1.3850 (firm price!). However a sideways action on the smaller timeframes is also possible till wednesday afternoon in preparation for the ECB meeting.

Scenario 2. Price comes back to test the entry area at 1.3460 and could even pierce this area bringing price into the 1.3440 level. I see participation on the long side at these levels.

Keep in mind that the ECB meeting will come AFTER a long setup and the news, in this case, are likely to push and help the long setup.

I consider it particularly dangerous holding shorts at this stage but from what I read a lot of people think that yesterday's action is due to the bear resuming. In my honest opinion, that was only profit taking and program trading pushing price into the next long setup.

As usually I am very interested to your comments.

Trade safe and have a great day

Thank Rob,
I was lucky

Have a great day. I am catching up with latest post here and then we resume our plans.

Cheers

This is the info I could never post on Friday because my account was suspended. Not arguing here as my account was suspended for proper reasons (me breaking rule #3) but it is a pity because it was a very good call and money could be made out of it. Luckily some people could look at this though. The comments are reported in inverted commas.

" (posted last Friday 1/2/2013)

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360056601


Price has reached the target of the B2 leg (in my intermediate plan for the Euro) and I anticipate some sort of retracement lower into the 1.3445 area. Probably is not a matter of when but how. Of course any outcome is possible and price may never retrace to the indicated level.
Below the 1.3625 important threshold level the ‘M-for-Murder’ pattern is on and we are going to get some sort of retracement. In this case I have identified two potential scenarios (refer to the above picture):

Scenario 1. Price moves below 1.3625 and Euro keeps selling. We could see a bounce at the 20-bar SMA and then a lower high in the 1.3610 area and then a continuation lower into the 1.3445 area.

Scenario 2. Price moves below 1.3625 and confirms the ‘M-for-Murder’ pattern. It then rallies all the way to the 1.3700 area or slightly above and then sells off into 1.3445 area in 2-3 days.

Notice that both scenarios could (should) find support at the 1.3445 area where I would be interested in new swing longs into 1.3850.
Please let me have your comments and views."

Same view. Pretty much.

Dear traders,
this is an update on the Euro FX futures (4-hour charts) with the relevant levels to watch.

Notice that, to the way I play the markets, current price dynamics in the Euro is all about trying to catch the next swing higher into the 1.3850 level. I am non interested in few pips moves. In the morning we had a reaction just 6 pips above the 1.3456 level. So the swing move could be on-going already. This swing long is invalidated if price moves below 1.3390 level (I don't think this is going to happen, but we should always expect anything from the markets).

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360077677

We could see that the 1.3580 area acted as a resistance at this stage and is still resistance that must be won by bulls for a continuation higher (and this is straightforward..., picture above).

Support showed at the 1.3510-15 area can bring price into 1.3570 area (1st target) and then 1.3614 (2nd target). The 1.3600 level is paramount. Above it price dynamics will confirm the support area at 1.3460 and stops below 1.3390 should be 'safe' (if such a thing exists in the markets). If price come back to 1.3460 support after 1.3600 is violated on the upside we can 'count' on a 'W-for-Victory' pattern, i.e. a bounce into higher prices.

As usual these are my two scenarios:

Scenario 1. If we reach 1.3614 the support in the 1.3460 area is finally confirmed. Price can keep moving higher and I am going to target 1.3850 (firm pip limit order!)

Scenario 2. If we break the 1.3600 level on the upside we can still come back to retest the 1.3460 area, but this will turn into a 'W-for-Victory' pattern and we could witness participation at the 1.3460 area. Same target at 1.3850.

Hope this helps. Open to discussion and critics.

Trade safe, make money and good luck.

Good morning,
an update on the Euro, 4-hour chart:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360159757

In days like today, where the daily support as already traded (yesterday at 1.3460 area) and we are waiting for important news (tomorrow's ECB meeting) the market will tend to move sideways finding support at previous traditional measured moves, here 1.3520 and 1.3510 area.

A price falling below 1.3495 would probably imply a retest of support in the 1.3460 and a new long opportunity (this would be a gift, and market does not make gifts often).

We have targets above in the 1.3830 and price could go higher. I think tomorrow's ECB will help the current long setup.

Let me know your thoughts and what your analysis is saying to this regard.

Trade safe.

Good Morning,
the 'invisible bid' in the Euro has started. Above 1.3557 spot bulls back in control on the 4-hour chart as well.

Trade safe

Hello traders,
my up to date view on the Dollar Index (daily chart below is from yesterday's mid-week update):

The 79.90 area in the Dollar Index looks strong resistance at the moment and it's very possible it will be able to contain higher price. The sequence of measured moves higher failed on the 4-hour timeframe. The short setup at 79.90 has targets at 78.50 (1st) and then 77.70 (2nd) helping price into that larger weekly setup's target at 77.50s, which started with the resistance at the 81.60s, in November.

These are the two updated scenarios I see going forward (refer to the picture below):

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360226968

Scenario 1. Price could start a move lower into the first target at the 78.50 area. It could then continue into the next area of target at 77.70 and into 77.60, after a brief profit taking relief move higher (this is the higher probability scenario).

Scenario 2. After trading down into the 78.50 first area of target price could reverse and start trading higher. This scenario seems less probable at this stage.

Of course we still need further confirmation that the Dollar Index has actually topped in this move. This would coincide with renewed, anticipated strength in the Euro-Dollar cross. Currently the bears are in control of the 15min timeframe and the confirmation of the targets mentioned above and the resistance level would come with price below 79.30. This could take a day or two.

Let me know your thoughts? ty

Have a great day.

Good morning all,

here's my update view on the Euro FX currency futures (4-hour chart). I have also recorded a video to explain yesterday's PA.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360310765

The Euro traded the 1.3580 area of resistance and short entry on the daily chart bringing price down into it's first target area at 1.3410.

That 4-hour daily short played breaking the weekly extension long. Price could now continue in extensions (in the 4-hour chart) into the 1.3200 area of support, my preferred scenario.

In my last analysis and video, I considered fascinating that two programs have been trading one against the other in yesterday's market session. The first program on the weekly timeframe offering support at the 1.3460 area (participation was confirmed on Tuesday, at this level, so it was valid); and the second program, on the daily timeframe, opposing resistance at the 1.3580 area (Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning) which then broke the weekly setup. As the program on the larger timeframe usually wins I overlooked the possibility of the program on the smaller timeframe to be ablet to break longs. Yesterday the bears won the battle and the 1.3580 resistance hit its first target area at 1.3410.

We now have a closer level of support at 1.3360 which I don’t fully trust and I will not consider as a potential area where price could turn around. The next important support area and long entry, if confirmed, is down around 1.3200 and it is originated on the daily timeframe. The other area of support, originated on the weekly timeframe, is at around 1.2900.

On the 4-hour chart the market is moving lower in extension measured moves with resistances at 1.3430 and 1.3410-15 at the moment. The lower resistance at 1.3415 has traded during the Asian session and may trade again during the EU morning. Above 1.3451 price can test the short resistance areas (see below) and come back down again. If the sequence of measured moves lower continues and then interrupts around 1.3200 I will consider that as the next support area for a continuation higher.

The following 2 scenarios are possible:

Scenario 1. Price is trading the next extension short in the 1.3410-15 area with targets below at 1.3360 and then 1.3325-30. If this scenario plays out we could see a continuation with a small bounce in the 1.3270 region and then a move into 1.3200.

Scenario 2. Above 1.3451 there is the potential to rally into 1.3480 and 1.3540 resistance levels. Notice that the move lower into 1.3200 could resume from these levels. Above 1.3590 we confirm the loose support in the 1.3360 area.

Glad to hear your comments.

Trade safe.

Hello all
last time I have tried this...

the market pulled my nose. So here I am ready to be pulled again.

This is my updated daily view on the Dollar Index which can be relevant for a lot of pairs:

Attachment

The Dollar Index could now be on its way up as the 79.90 level of resistance did not hold. It could retest previous highs or even the top of the channel at the 81.70s. This would probably mean 1.3200 and 1.2900, respectively, for the Euro FX currency futures.

DX is currently trading a daily extension long which offered support today at the 80.10 area. The failure level is 80.00 and that barely held, but I will consider it holding as the DX with its low volume is not always technical.

As usual I have identified two scenarios:

Scenario 1. Price currently trading in extensions long and could hit 80.40 (1st target) and then 80.60 (2nd target). Then it could continue higher in extensions trading the 80.60 support and next long entry, provided that price holds above the 80.45 level.

Scenario 2. After/if trades above the 80.70 level and if price then pierces 80.45 on the downside , price could then retrace all the way to the 80.10 area again before embarking into a move into 81 (1st target) and then 81.70 (2nd target), the top of the channel. At that point , and if we get there, I could get bearish again on the Dollar

Please let me know what you think and your related analysis as well.

Thank you
Have a great weekend.

Hello all,
this is a brief review and trading plan for the S&P500. As most of the time there is a direct relationship between Euro and S&P500 (especially during US session arbitraging), I thought it was a good idea to provide an update.

During last week the S&P500 index price kept moving higher according to the plan provided on February 3rd, 2013. Now before the grind higher will restart, I believe we need to see a larger retrace. The S&P500 index could indeed be at the beginning of a correction. US Dollar strength could push risk off with selling in the equity market.

Below are the two updated scenarios I see going forward (refer to the below picture):

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360571114

Scenario 1. The grind higher continues only with a minor correction into the 1503 area for a continuation higher into the 1520 1st target.

Scenario 2. A larger correction would start if price slices through the 1499-1500 level. In that case we could see price reach the 1480 area. From this support area we could see risk back on and the start of a move into the 1530 area (1st target) and a continuation higher into the 1556 area (2nd target) into the Spring.

Please let me know what you think.
Trade safe.

Hello,
this is my updated view on the Euro FX currency futures contract (4-hour chart), scenario 2b is currently playing:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360625745

Price Action yesterday did not offer enough information to restrict the number of possible scenarios. Although the 1.3360 area showed support on Monday, the bearish and the bullish scenarios are still both open. As only measured moves short were interrupted on the 15min timeframe still we have two long scenarios and one short scenario:

Scenario 1. Above 1.3451 the 1.3360 area of support will be confirmed on the 4-hour timeframe as well and price can continue higher. Daily targets are in the 1.3870 area.

Scenario 2a. Price could move back to retest the 1.3360 area on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that price could pierce Friday's low and continue into the 1.3200 next support area.

Scenario 2b. After testing the 1.3360 area price could find new bids and resume its move higher above the 1.3451, thus creating the conditions to continue higher into 1.3870s.

I have also posted a video.
Let me know your thoughts

Have a nice evening
Cheers

Here's another interesting view on SHORT eurodollar...

Nice PA action on the Euro.
Let me post a chart update for what we could/need to see in the Euro:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360668613

The Scenario 2b indicated in the morning (check my prev post) is playing out. The 1.3451 threshold is now gone. We have two other important levels above current price that could now be violated on the upside (and there is now a good probability they will).
First is the 1.3510 level and then is the 1.3580 level.

The violation on the upside of the 1.3510 level would confirm the support area at 1.3360 also on the daily timeframe. In that case any retest of the 1.3360 should probably hold.

If the 1.3510 level is violated on the upside we could still get a retrace (that would be the entry/or an add for the big guys on this move higher), We could retrace into the 1.3450 (will be more precise on the actual area in the coming days).
The violation on the upside of the 1.3580 level would confirm the swing target in the 1.3870 area, which is where I will remove my swing longs.

PS: I am going to record a video every evening for the next day. Will also post a chart in the Euro-related threads. Check the "Euro/Dollar" thread for updates, that will be the first thread where I will post chart.

Please let me have your thoughts.
Have a great, great, green, green day