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Still Basketting

  • #3,321
  • Edited 2:12am Feb 3, 2013 1:52am | Edited 2:12am
Summary for the last month:

Losses (BE) Wins
1 -430
2 (20)
3 (20)
4 1300
5 (20)
6 (-45)
7 800
8 1000
9 (20)
10 -150
11 (20)
12 -190
13 (0)
14 1100
------------------------
Loss pips:-770
BE pips: 55
Win pips: 4200
-------------------------
Balance: +3485
-------------------------
(Note: the wins were a little larger than I'm showing here, as I usually deduct about 60pips from the winners to allow for slippage, spreads, swap, etc. in the calculations.)

All the trades were entered manually, on 15m or 1h charts. I used S. Hopwood's MPBM EA to manage the trades when I couldn't watch the charts. Settings: SL=400 pips, BE=20 pips when profit reaches 200 pips. I always exit when the 15m HAS changes. I follow the system as much as possible.

I have been extremely fortunate to be able to catch some of the good swings and ride them close to the end, yet the BE has kept me from getting killed in the chop.

See the table above, there was only one stopout due to the SL being hit. The rest of the losses were due to HAS color change. A few relatively small losses, several BE trades, and a few relatively large winners. The W:L ratio is about 5:1 which will cover a lot of small losses.

Using Kos' basket trading system, I have been able to get nearly a 100% increase in my account (live) this month without taking huge risk, and without too much stress. If I can average even 1/3 of that return over a year I will be thrilled.

Below is a screenshot from the first chart I posted here when I started trading a live account with the system, overlayed with the most recent account balance on the terminal. There have been no funds added or withdrawn and the only trades that have been taken are from this system. See the original post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post6348673


Thank you very much kos.

... Dave
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0010 - Results - Month 1.png Size: 87 KB
  • #3,322
  • Feb 3, 2013 3:19am Feb 3, 2013 3:19am
Hey guys , i was wondering what would be the money management for the core 5 i know it is going to be stop loss of 200 (40 x 5 pairs)

but i was more wondering what are some of your settings for BE or start trailing , because since there is less momentum compared to the 14 pairs
do we assume for start trailing is 5/14 x 150 = 50
and also BE will be 5/14 x 100 = 35
Lock value will be 5/14 x 50 = 17 ?
  • #3,323
  • Feb 3, 2013 3:38am Feb 3, 2013 3:38am
Quoting PistolDave
Summary for the last month:


Loss pips:-770
BE pips: 55
Win pips: 4200
-------------------------
Balance: +3485
-------------------------


Using Kos' basket trading system, I have been able to get nearly a 100% increase in my account (live) this month without taking huge risk, and without too much stress. If I can average even 1/3 of that return over a year I will be thrilled.



Thank you very much kos.

... Dave
Impressive Dave. Your posts are always very informative. I hope you don't mind answering a couple of questions for me.

1. You say you take the trades off the m15 or H1 but follow on to say you exit trades on any M15 HAS colour change. Does this mean even if you've opened a trade based on the H1 HAS colour change you drop back to the M15 to manage the trade?

2. As you pointed out you've doubled your account in the last month which is damn impressive. Do you mind me asking what % you are risking on a typical trade running the 400 SL?

Cheers,

Dud
Everyone's got a plan until they get punched in the face
  • #3,324
  • Feb 3, 2013 4:23am Feb 3, 2013 4:23am
Just discovered this thread. Will read during the day. Looks fantastic. Exactly what I was looking for.
What the mind does not know, the eyes cannot see
  • #3,325
  • Feb 3, 2013 5:05am Feb 3, 2013 5:05am
xlitang, Thanks for the link. Just the kind of uplifting message I need to read every so often to remind me that,"...here we have no permanent city, but are looking for the one that is coming."
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #3,326
  • Feb 3, 2013 10:25am Feb 3, 2013 10:25am
Hello Everyone,

New to this thread and sorting through the copious amounts of info.

Thank you GVC for directing me here!

Thank you Kos for your generosity!

Oh, and Croissant, I DO appreciate your "manual" as well.

Warmest Regards,

Pippa
  • #3,327
  • Feb 3, 2013 11:19am Feb 3, 2013 11:19am
Quoting Learningpipr
Hey guys , i was wondering what would be the money management for the core 5 i know it is going to be stop loss of 200 (40 x 5 pairs)

but i was more wondering what are some of your settings for BE or start trailing , because since there is less momentum compared to the 14 pairs
do we assume for start trailing is 5/14 x 150 = 50
and also BE will be 5/14 x 100 = 35
Lock value will be 5/14 x 50 = 17 ?
I don't know if there is less momentum but:

I only trade core 5 1 HR chart
I set my SL to 40
I have 2 different BE and TP's

If I feel we are in a long run BE 150(if moving up fast 200) with trail Stop at 67%

If I am in a reversal trade(against the trend) or choppy market BE 100 TS 75% for SL 40 and I use the ea and place the visual SL line at the High or Low MTF fractal 240 chart or where ever I see S/L
  • #3,328
  • Feb 3, 2013 11:38am Feb 3, 2013 11:38am
Quoting dryclean
I don't know if there is less momentum but:

I only trade core 5 1 HR chart
I set my SL to 40
I have 2 different BE and TP's

If I feel we are in a long run BE 150(if moving up fast 200) with trail Stop at 67%

If I am in a reversal trade(against the trend) or choppy market BE 100 TS 75% for SL 40 and I use the ea and place the visual SL line at the High or Low MTF fractal 240 chart or where ever I see S/L
DC, Don't you think that C 5 basket is more susceptible to being overturned by JPY specific ECO news surprises than full basket? I thought that basket trading's strong point was that it was less sensitive to day to day, pair specific news releases and would keep the trader on the correct side of the market's overall momentum. Just occurred to me(doh!) that this has prob. been studied in orig. thread. Am I correct about that?
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #3,329
  • Feb 3, 2013 11:46am Feb 3, 2013 11:46am
1 HR Chart
Right side of screen Core 5 Left side 14 pair I don't see much difference
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: both.jpg Size: 123 KB
  • #3,330
  • Feb 3, 2013 11:58am Feb 3, 2013 11:58am
Quoting dryclean
1 HR Chart
Right side of screen Core 5 Left side 14 pair I don't see much difference
Nor do I. Of course, charts show little more than a week's price activity. Let's see what happens when JPY news surprises market.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #3,331
  • Feb 3, 2013 12:07pm Feb 3, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting Pippopotamus
Nor do I. Of course, charts show little more than a week's price activity. Let's see what happens when JPY news surprises market.
Do you know a date in recent past we (I) could look at the chart
  • #3,332
  • Edited 5:30pm Feb 3, 2013 12:16pm | Edited 5:30pm
Quoting dryclean
Do you know a date in recent past we (I) could look at the chart
Nothing comes to mind...Anyway, a news shock could help, or hurt any basket trade... However, I do expect C 5 to be rather sensitive/reactive to Yen news... You may remember from a previous post that I trade a 9 pair basket(orig. 14 minus Chf pairs, and E/G), but use 14 pairs for signals... May take a closer look at C 5, but ATM, I need a break from all the researching...
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #3,333
  • Edited 1:22pm Feb 3, 2013 1:02pm | Edited 1:22pm
Quoting Pippopotamus
Nothing comes to mind...Anyway, a news shock could help, or hurt any basket trade... You may remember from a previous post that I trade a 9 pair basket(orig. 14 minus Chf pairs, and E/G), but use 14 pairs for signals... May take a closer look at C 5, but ATM, I need a break from all the researching...
Me too getting ready for Super Bowl

From Cleveland OH USA . So NO Raven fans around here if you know the history of that
  • #3,334
  • Feb 3, 2013 1:34pm Feb 3, 2013 1:34pm
Quoting Dud45
Impressive Dave. Your posts are always very informative. I hope you don't mind answering a couple of questions for me.

1. You say you take the trades off the m15 or H1 but follow on to say you exit trades on any M15 HAS colour change. Does this mean even if you've opened a trade based on the H1 HAS colour change you drop back to the M15 to manage the trade?

2. As you pointed out you've doubled your account in the last month which is damn impressive. Do you mind me asking what % you are risking on a typical trade running the 400 SL?

Cheers,

Dud...
Hi Dud,

I was very fortunate to be able to catch some of the bigger swings this month.

To answer #2 above, I started out with 0.02 lots per pair, then after three or four trades I raised it to 0.03 per pair, then after a few more, to 0.04 and this keeps the risk per position around 7% overall. That is a little high for me, but as long as the market is trending it should be ok.

The harder one is how to explain #1. I don't just blindly use the 15m HAS color change like an on/off signal to go long/short. Rather, I start by looking at the larger timeframes and go down to the lower ones to see if they are in alignment with the longer. Ideally, I would like to try to enter and exit the trade using the 15m TF while it is "aligned" or trending in the same direction as the 1h. Even better is when the 15m, 1h, and 4h are all aligned in the same direction. I'm sure this is nothing new to you.

I think there is some discretion required, especially when going countertrend. That's where looking at the larger timeframes helps you. Personally, I don't see anything wrong with selling in a strong uptrend as long as you consider where price is in relation to the support and resistance levels. This is one reason I can't get comfortable with letting an EA enter and exit for me.

For example, if the market is in an uptrend for several days on the 1h chart, price is 600 pips above the blue 1h HAS, then price rolls over and suddenly makes a sharp drop down 500 pips. During this time the 15m HAS turns red, but price is still above the blue 1h HAS. Also during this time price strongly bounces up 250 pips off the low and stalls there near the end of the trading day. The 15m HAS remains red. So, step back and look it over. Price is still in an uptrend on the 1h HAS. There is a swing low 250 pips below, where buyers have obviously stepped in. Will price continue lower and break the swing low? Maybe. Maybe not. My way of dealing with this is to only enter short if there is at least enough room to get to breakeven at or before price reaches the swing low. At least, if that is the end of the retrace the BE stop will protect the position. So in this case I would short with the expectation of a break of the low.

I could go on and on about every possible scenario, but I will just confuse things more.

After saying all that, the simplest way and the way that would have gained just about the same number of pips during this time would have been to just go long on the 1h HAS blue signal and go short on the 1h HAS red signal. A breakeven stop would have kept the losses low and the gains high. The simplest way may be the best way. Some work on my trading psychology is needed on my part before I can get to that point, however.

Dave
  • #3,335
  • Feb 3, 2013 3:11pm Feb 3, 2013 3:11pm
Are you guys aware of or using any kind of reporting indicators to calculate and present the pips per basket per cycle?

Due to my day job that takes me away from the computer, and when the EA sometime closes a basket and re-opens another cycle 2 or 3 times in a period of 2 days or so, I am unable to figure out the pips made or lost per basket cycle. I have a myfxbook account to view the statistics, but that only shows me cuts of data by all trades and by individual pairs and time frames (and not by basket). Are you guys aware of a way to view it on (say for example) an MT4 live chart in the form shown below.

1. +240
2. -560
3. +1400
4. -230
etc.

Thanks,
SK

Quoting forexferrari
Hello trading 2012

Your basket lot size is mini?
If so, how come small basket loss?

or are you using the 5 min tf?
  • #3,336
  • Feb 3, 2013 4:18pm Feb 3, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting PistolDave
Hi Dud,

I was very fortunate to be able to catch some of the bigger swings this month......

Dave
Great post Dave! Thanks mate.
Everyone's got a plan until they get punched in the face
  • #3,337
  • Feb 3, 2013 5:39pm Feb 3, 2013 5:39pm
Thanks for sharing

Quoting PistolDave
Summary for the last month:

Losses (BE) Wins
1 -430
2 (20)
3 (20)
4 1300
5 (20)
6 (-45)
7 800
8 1000
9 (20)
10 -150
11 (20)
12 -190
13 (0)
14 1100
------------------------
Loss pips:-770
BE...
Failure leads to Success if one learns from mistakes and never give up
  • #3,338
  • Feb 4, 2013 12:46am Feb 4, 2013 12:46am
Hello folks,
The market opened on a rather dull note. After friday's up-move,I'm expecting some retracement. I'm looking for shorts,so I'm avoiding the GBP-related pairs,cos the EURGBP is looking down. From observation,the EG dropping strengthens the GBP. Looking for possible weak euro setups. No signal yet on H1. The UJ is still hanging up there,when it drops = sell basket.
There's a euro news in a couple of hrs,spanish employment data,imho,I think the forecast is a bit too hopeful. A bad report could trigger euro shorts across the board. Green pips to all. Remember to WAIT for a signal. Its healthier.
It is possible to make large sums trading, small losses, large wins
  • #3,339
  • Feb 4, 2013 2:36am Feb 4, 2013 2:36am
Quoting omadivi
Hello folks,
The market opened on a rather dull note. After friday's up-move,I'm expecting some retracement. I'm looking for shorts,so I'm avoiding the GBP-related pairs,cos the EURGBP is looking down. From observation,the EG dropping strengthens the GBP. Looking for possible weak euro setups. No signal yet on H1. The UJ is still hanging up there,when it drops = sell basket.
There's a euro news in a couple of hrs,spanish employment data,imho,I think the forecast is a bit too hopeful. A bad report could trigger euro shorts across the board. Green...
The news hit the euro,but the impact was not all that. UJ is flirting with the 93 area,possibly another bullish leg. The EG is still down, Gbp strength is gaining,I'm gona be looking for long gbp trades. Green pips to all
It is possible to make large sums trading, small losses, large wins
  • #3,340
  • Feb 4, 2013 3:57am Feb 4, 2013 3:57am
hi,
I am not able to get composite chart after applying basketv6 indicator and taking all the precautions given on some of first pages, my mt4 build is 451. Please help.
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