Circular Trend-Waves

EURUSD ... The previous week has been a really important week for the destiny of the pair , in other words that week had a conclusive role in the market. I know , the screenshot really seems to be complex , but every drawn tool in that picture is for some purpose , and I really tried my best to simplify the screen by deleting the less important tools. First of all , like it says in the topic we will be focusing on the circular waves in the market. EURUSD consolidated just below the circular resistence for the last 7-8 days telling us that it was just about to decide whether to go up or down. And by breaking out the circular resistence it has shown us that the following weeks will be under the pressure of strong bulls which will carry the price to really higher levels. As a conclusion we will be looking forward chances to BUY this air in the following weeks until we reach the targets.

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/9687/circles.gif

Like we said in the previous posts this is just the pattern of the nature and somehow the fundamentals also suit the natural flow of the price. So we can say that the price is the master and the fundamentals are just the explanations of the trends , maybe they are also the incidents of the same destiny This circular structure really amazes me!!!

On the other hand we have the 45 / -45 degree lines which act as maps for the price , and when we put them on the chart then we get interesting results. I just hold them from the middle and drag them around the screen to ANY support or resistence , then I notice that those lines are the potential reversal points for the pair. Anyway , you can see the lines on the same picture with the cloned trendlines...

Contrary to wat circular trend-waves tell , horizantal fibonacci levels come forward this week , because the %50 Fibo resistence is really important and I am %100 sure there are lots of sellers at that level targeting 1,20s again. So it will be so natural for us to see a consolidating market in the following days ... and yes they will be boring too ...

As a summary :

1- The price has broken an important circular resistence and formed a bullish enfulging candle formation in the weekly timeframe.
2- The 45 degree lines tell us that the price has much to go !!!
3- What we claim here is that fundamentals follow the price ... and both price and fundamentals and the price are the slaves of a strong authority. And that authority is an amazing artist which gives great importance to geometric harmony and symmetry !!!
4- The circular resistence which the price just broke is the 1,618 level of an inner wave , so it was really important !!
5- There are lots of sellers waiting at the %50 Fibo level which will not let the price creep up to higher levels easily. So we will be face to face with strong consolidation in the following days.
6- We will be looking for chances to BUY this pair in the following days

Regards ...

GBPUSD is on the way to the target. despite its amazing excitedness , this pair really obeys the secret authority.

http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/7387/ilkhali.gif

http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/87/sonuc.gif

Hi friends ;

My expectations were not like this , but EURUSD made a good surprise for me and moved faster than I guessed. The price day by day proves my theory about the geometric and harmonic structure of the market. Despite the rumours and the portrait of an almost dead Europe , the natural cycles never give up ...

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/4373/eurusdson.gif

EURTRY ... This pair is one of my favorites nowadays. The explosive momentum in all EUR pairs really attracts me . The interesting thing I want to share about EURTRY is the circular zone in which we entered right today. When we look at the left side of the circular base , and if we watch how the market moved in this circular zone in the past , then we can see that this zone is the home for explosive trends. EURTRY has passed this zone in 10-15 days in the past , and we will see how it will happen this time ...

Time will show ... Regards to everyone ...

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/7130/eurtry.gif

Weekly Perspective

http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/3571/eurtry2.gif

USDCHF ... The circles drawn on the main HIGHs and BOTTOMS give us the road map for the pair. On the other side this pair has an extra importance because of its highly negative correlation to EURUSD . For this reason I alwasy need to keep an eye on USDCHF by measuring its zig-zag behaviours and the candle formations.

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/8113/usdchff.gif

Anyway , as you can see in the picture the price has broken one of the strongest circular supports and has assigned its new circular target. By looking at the left side of the chart we can also make behaviour predictions for the pair. The blue rectangle in the picture shows the basic characteristics of the "happening" trend towards the circular target. So we can at least say that there is no explosive trend expected !! The behaviour of the trend during this curcular zone will also be a guide for EURUSD ...

When we look at the ultra complex circular template , then we can easily see that the price is creeping down on the 45 degree line from the TOP price. and also you can see the +45 degree line which starts from the bottom too. And that 45 degree line which starts from the bottom is broken many weeks ago which was a big sign for us (circle traders) that the price was under the pressure of the bears.And this bearish pressure is supposed to slow down when the price reaches +22,5 degree line , and its not very far .... maybe 300-350 pips more! Anyway , the pictures tell so much and once more proves that the market moves in symmetry...A

http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/941/usdchf2.gif

Well , ı just wanted to visualize what ı told above in the previous post...I just copied and pasted the rectangular zone and mirrored it and pasted it on the recent time and wanted to show u the possible behavious of the pair in the close future...

http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/9197/usdchf3.gif

And here is the visualised prediction of EURTRY for the following weeks ... So we can say that it will take 3-4 weeks for the price to reach the circular resistence...

http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/1306/eurtry1.gif

As we expected the bulls were so active during the week , but the price has not reached the channel resistence yet , so after a little pullback I expect the price to reach the channel resistence which is around 1,3750s. As a summary it is not a good time for the bears to be hopeful for a big retracement.

On the other side the COT reports support the bullish pressure in this pair.although I do not care about the fundamental analysis , its really meaningful when both geometric and fundamental analysis show the same scenario...

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/170/eurusdbp.gif

Nice work Selym!

I owe you a chart...I've just been busy with other needs. After this week, plenty of data to work with, should lead to plenty of charting.

Happy trading

sjc

Ok, here you go, this is how I use Arcs. I basically combine the use of Fib Arcs and Median Lines and Sine Waves all together.

1. Take a Major swing high and low and draw your Fib retracement 50% line ONLY with the trendline plotted too.

2. Draw your Fib Arc from the point of crossing...Trendline and 50% line outwards to your Major high or low price point. The center of the Fib Arc MUST be the center of this trendline

3. Add additional Fib and Pi ratios like 1.00, 1.618, 3.14, 6.28, 7, 14 ONLY.

4. Draw a trend line from the center of your Fib Arc (50% Fib retrace trendline cross) out to where Price meets and Closes OUTSIDE the Fib Arc, extend this line outwards (usually have to toggle this option to Yes or ON). This is a Trendline this will more than likely be respected, not always, but usually price comes back, this is similar to what Median Line Pitchfork traders use. The difference is that I use the price action Energy Point to measure/plot future price action

5. Draw a trend line the same as in step 4 but to the 1.618 point. This is even more heavily respected line than the 1.00 as this is what I was attempting to describe to your in a previous conversation. This trendline is plotting a Major Median Line and a focus of all Price Action. Price will rotate (Sine Wave) around this line until a large time frame breakout occurs.

Try it out, its unconventional. Let me know what you think.

Thanks,

sjc

Here I offer some more explanations on how I use Arcs.
Notes are color coded to match trendlines.

thanks,

sjc

Hi Coondawg71 ;

I just arrived home , I was in the mauntain hause , thats why I didnt have chance to say "thank you" before. really thank you very much that you shared ur perspective with us. Telling how to use a tool is like teaching how to fish...and few people do it...And honestly this market lacks generosity and its like a battle zone .... I have been trading seriously with the circles and the fans for the lst 2-3 months , and I really admire them for that they tell me much about the general scenario. They also are good references for sharp trend detections. But the problem is we earn/lose money according to horizantal based levels. This horizantalness creates the biggest problem if you are trading according to circular tools. Apart from that the circles and the 1,618 FiboArc is amazing while you are trying to detect the potential reversals...or the targets !!

Well , I just copied ur pictures on my computer and will watch them and try to understand your perspective better.

Take care...Regards...

Sounds good, should be an active week to come. Please feel free to ask any questions that may arise. We can continue working on the USDTRY pair too if that is a specific point of interest.

USD has shown some persistent strength against the Risk On attitude of the market lately, so that may continue to persist in the short term, especially as you hear more talk of QE slowing down.

As the week continues I will post additional charts.

thanks,

sjc

Was playing around with some Channels and found something very interesting!

This is a weekly price chart with a Raff Regression Channel. The inner portion of the large Channel is white, this is the standard deviation of 1 from the Median Line. Since price has already moved well outside this channel I extended from this same Median Line and we see that price finally broke down at the 2.618 extension. Price should continue breaking down. More work to come.

sjc

chart from previous post...

you will see the Fib Arc 1.0 (red) trendline extension and the 1.618 (blue). These would be my targets if I traded this pair.

sjc

Coondawg thank you very much for the pictures and the explanations. Honestly ı didnt know that there were different variations of ARCS usages. the only person ı have known up to now was Kambooj (he has got a thread here on forexfactroy called Circular Trendlines) , and he also uses the circles in a different way , as trendlines. And ur usage is really very different ... and seems to be effective. I hope you will participate here later when u have time ... Noone can claim to be the best , there is always somebody who can see the things which we never saw before. In other words its nice to look at the things from other people's perspectives...

When I first started trading I was trying to trade at every pair , but as days passed ı realised that its not a good thing to devide my attention equally on every pair. Nowadays I trade in 5-6 pairs , and some of them are highly positive correlated or negative correlated. And I use positive or negative correlation as a kind of confirmation. And EURUSD -being one of my favorite pairs- has a high negative correlation with USDCHF and positive correlation with EURTRY.And as can be seen in my trade explorer I have trades in those pairs at the moment. On the other hand I trade XAUUSD too and I missed the opportunity to BUY that pair at 1658 where my pending order was at 1658 too Damn dynamic spreads !!

Anywaytrading is like hunting , and we need to hide into bushes with a knife in order to wait for our hunt and the righ time to jump on it. I do not know if u ever wathed the movie LEON , in that movie (in a little part of the movie) the main character (who was an assasin) was teaching "how to kill" to Mathilda. And when they went to the top of a high building they had an ultra-technology weapon. The little girl (Mathilda) was shocked with the advanced version of the weapon. Then the main character told her that the closer she went to her victim , the lower technology wud be her weapons. And he also told Mathilda that knife wud be the last thing she had to learn , because "knife" wud be the top level wweapon. Anyway , we cannot stand far apart from the price in the forex market. we shud detect charp entrances and SL levels. we shud also make preperations for worse possibilities etc...Its exactly hunting ! and the top level trading is hiding at some bushes (at a particular zone) and waiting for the hunt (the price) to visit that place. then we shud attack with the knife.

Well...Today ı will talk about USDCHF which I use as a confirmation tool for EURUSD , I sharpen my knife and was hiding at the resistence zone (bushes) and entered a short trade. this short position was a kind of confirmation for todays bullish EURUSD trend . First I will show the picture. There are two different screenshots , and ı will upload the less complex version :

http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/2707/usdchfn.gif

As we can see in the picture , the price has broken a circular support and has stimulated itself to reach the target : the next circular support. Like I said before this circular zone is an area of explosive trends , which means explosive bullish trends for EURUSD and EURTRY too...But still we need horizantal zones (bushes) to chose the best entry references. Here the worse possibility is that the price will change its direction upwards and go up until it reaches the circular resistence.

As a summary :

1- Horizantal zones shud be used as bushes
2- We shud plan even about the worse and worser and the worst possibilities too
3- Correlation charts shud be checked regularly
4- we can make confirmations between different pairs by means of correlations..

Anyway , regards...

The circles once more proved that this market moves in the hands of a strong and strict king !! And we -the participants of this game- just play our parts when the right time comes ... Yes , GBPUSD has reached the first magnet !!

http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/2290/gbpusdu.gif

I want to post the same thing here which I just posted in USDCHF thread. Its one of my [Time + Price] predictions I hope it will be fine for me in the end The intersection of three different tools : the circle , the trendline coming from the top , the channel support form an energy point around 8740s. This energy point is marked with green on the screenshot , which is about to happen in three weeks time. I am expecting this trend to be explosive , and at the same time the negative correlation shud push EURUSD up too...

Anyway...time will show the truth !

Regards...

http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/2503/usdchfq.gif

Great work! Keep it going.

You should see the daily projection I have for USDCHF. It calls for .7000, granted it is 3 years away.


sjc

Congrats Selym,

Nice thread, I will check all the posts later. Its nice to see finally people using circles in a variety of ways for their analysis. Good luck and best wishes for your thread.

Kambooj