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  • #42,421
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:44pm Feb 2, 2013 3:44pm
Quoting 45Condor
EU_My five charts' worth_020213

Hmm, the 38.2 FE is pretty much kissed at the start of the month, and although only two days in, the monthly candle looks like a spinning top. I suppose the question is, was this last push a run north for month end/start, prior to news to come that will see the Euro hammered and the Dollar retreated to?

Cable doing some funny things, in spite of UC, so a little confused.

[font=Times New Roman]I think next week will be telling,...
don't you spect a bounce to the red ema's Sir.? to balance and then keep going......
The Chonchy
  • #42,422
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:46pm Feb 2, 2013 3:46pm
Quoting 45Condor
EU_My five charts' worth_020213

Hmm, the 38.2 FE is pretty much kissed at the start of the month, and although only two days in, the monthly candle looks like a spinning top. I suppose the question is, was this last push a run north for month end/start, prior to news to come that will see the Euro hammered and the Dollar retreated to?

Cable doing some funny things, in spite of UC, so a little confused.

[font=Times New Roman]I think next week...
the euro hammered and the dollar retreated to, could you please espand on this Sir. thanks in advance.......
The Chonchy
  • #42,423
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:47pm Feb 2, 2013 3:47pm
Quoting 45Condor
EU_My five charts' worth_020213

Hmm, the 38.2 FE is pretty much kissed at the start of the month, and although only two days in, the monthly candle looks like a spinning top. I suppose the question is, was this last push a run north for month end/start, prior to news to come that will see the Euro hammered and the Dollar retreated to?

Cable doing some funny things, in spite of UC, so a little confused.

[font=Times New Roman]I think next week will be telling,...
MP, being midle pivot or monthly pivot Sir. excuse my ignorance.......
The Chonchy
  • #42,424
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:49pm Feb 2, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting 45Condor
EU_My five charts' worth_020213

Hmm, the 38.2 FE is pretty much kissed at the start of the month, and although only two days in, the monthly candle looks like a spinning top. I suppose the question is, was this last push a run north for month end/start, prior to news to come that will see the Euro hammered and the Dollar retreated to?

Cable doing some funny things, in spite of UC, so a little confused.

[font=Times New Roman]I think next week will be telling,...
........Like alwasy Sir., thanks a lot for your charts and analisis, they are absolutly extraordinare.......
The Chonchy
  • #42,425
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:52pm Feb 2, 2013 3:52pm
......So let me get this right, the same guy that want to take the guns from us, his hobby is to shoot things down.......

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...?ncid=webmail1

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/971585/original.jpg
The Chonchy
  • #42,426
  • Edited 4:36pm Feb 2, 2013 3:56pm | Edited 4:36pm
........Now correct me if I'm wrong Sir. but if we are making lower lows for a while now and lower hights, aren't we suppose to go to a lower low if we bounce here to the down side as in 2010 first yellow arrow? well yellow or blue because I don't know what happen to my charts,.

........just asking......thanks in advance, anybody can answer this question please......

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1359808004
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Chonchy
  • #42,427
  • Feb 2, 2013 6:04pm Feb 2, 2013 6:04pm
Quoting chonchy
........Now correct me if I'm wrong Sir. but if we are making lower lows for a while now and lower hights, aren't we suppose to go to a lower low if we bounce here to the down side as in 2010 first yellow arrow? well yellow or blue because I don't know what happen to my charts,.

........just asking......thanks in advance, anybody can answer this question please......

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1359808004
I hope you are right Sir Chonchy, this would help my cable trade.
However, the last monthly EU swing low was a higher low and there were 4 bullish months in the most recent drop compared to no bullish months in the 2 previous drops so there seems to be a shift in sentiment to some degree.

But I hope you are right Sir as my cable entry was very poor and should have been around 5860 as was a trade journal idea I had, but Thursday closed strong and messed with my head making me think we were heading higher.

Any idea why these 2 pairs not correlating?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #42,428
  • Feb 3, 2013 12:13am Feb 3, 2013 12:13am
Quoting Ill-b-back
I hope you are right Sir Chonchy, this would help my cable trade.
However, the last monthly EU swing low was a higher low and there were 4 bullish months in the most recent drop compared to no bullish months in the 2 previous drops so there seems to be a shift in sentiment to some degree.

But I hope you are right Sir as my cable entry was very poor and should have been around 5860 as was a trade journal idea I had, but Thursday closed strong and messed with my head making me think we were heading higher.

Any idea why these 2 pairs not correlating?...
e/u and u/chf are also discorrelating a lot, I guess is lack of desicion by the market makers but realy don't have a clue, Ben buying more euros than pounds, or Ben is long eur/gbp, dont' realy know Sir. sorry, 45condor should know more, or smikester also trade eur/gbp a lot, he should know......and you are right about the last low, actualy is making a wedge........but is eather two things, or it goes for the uper trend line of the wedge or is going to make a big red candle like the one on the first arrow in 2010..........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Chonchy
  • #42,429
  • Feb 3, 2013 12:19am Feb 3, 2013 12:19am
do you guys see my charts in colors or just blueish?
The Chonchy
  • #42,430
  • Feb 3, 2013 12:23am Feb 3, 2013 12:23am
Morning all,
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #42,431
  • Feb 3, 2013 12:42am Feb 3, 2013 12:42am
Quoting chonchy
do you guys see my charts in colors or just blueish?
Maroon Sir
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #42,432
  • Feb 3, 2013 1:14am Feb 3, 2013 1:14am
Quoting chonchy
e/u and u/chf are also discorrelating a lot, I guess is lack of desicion by the market makers but realy don't have a clue, Ben buying more euros than pounds, or Ben is long eur/gbp, dont' realy know Sir. sorry, 45condor should know more, or smikester also trade eur/gbp a lot, he should know......and you are right about the last low, actualy is making a wedge........but is eather two things, or it goes for the uper trend line of the wedge or is going to make a big red candle like the one on the first arrow in 2010..........
Hi Sir, yes Sir indeed, the EG is rapidly approaching the 50 fib about 100 pips away.
Ordinarily it would take all week for that pair to cover this ground but she is flying Sir, coffee steroids style.
Also a descending TL and a previous weekly breakout retest line from months ago Sir.

Probably send EG south a good bit from there which will help your cause Sir Chonchy
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #42,433
  • Feb 3, 2013 1:52am Feb 3, 2013 1:52am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Hi Sir, yes Sir indeed, the EG is rapidly approaching the 50 fib about 100 pips away.
Ordinarily it would take all week for that pair to cover this ground but she is flying Sir, coffee steroids style.
Also a descending TL and a previous weekly breakout retest line from months ago Sir.

Probably send EG south a good bit from there which will help your cause Sir Chonchy
The Chonchy
  • #42,434
  • Feb 3, 2013 1:53am Feb 3, 2013 1:53am
Quoting FXMindset
Enjoy the nature...and trying to received the Universe energy


- Location - East Borneo
be carefull with a thunder Sir. FX.....
The Chonchy
  • #42,435
  • Feb 3, 2013 2:02am Feb 3, 2013 2:02am
Quoting chonchy
Presuming we are going to the 50 fib Sir, look at the daily PA on the retracement fibs in the last chart Sir

It's like the smart money "knows" where price is going Sir.

But surely that can't be Sir, Market is "totally Random" right!! Just as those guys tell everyone in the rookie section, trying to discourage new guys from participating because they are positive that money just can't be made in this business!!!

They know what they are talking about eh Sir,

lol...
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #42,436
  • Feb 3, 2013 2:16am Feb 3, 2013 2:16am
Would then be nice to see a TL/support retest down to 84 area Sir
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #42,437
  • Feb 3, 2013 2:17am Feb 3, 2013 2:17am
Dinner time here, all the best everyone
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #42,438
  • Feb 3, 2013 2:23am Feb 3, 2013 2:23am
Quoting chonchy
be carefull with a thunder Sir. FX.....
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #42,439
  • Feb 3, 2013 2:24am Feb 3, 2013 2:24am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Dinner time here, all the best everyone
Enjoy Sr Ibback
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #42,440
  • Feb 3, 2013 3:01am Feb 3, 2013 3:01am
Quoting 45Condor
Yeah, I know... merely a reflection upon current visual appearance. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me these days to see this same candle come month end.

Do you have any opinion upon EU?
Sure do, my post from 27 January:

In the lack of negative influences, the VIX index at lows and EUR/USD showing so much strength, I'm just going to play this as a simple H&S breakout in the weekly.


First the chart:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359284019

I have 4 supporting arguements:

#1) Printed a higher shoulder = upside breakout.
#2) Breakout volume pattern developing which is only in its third week.
#3) COT Positioning has flipped for the third time, non commercial data for last week could give direction.
#4) Weekly close above the 100 MVA (the 20er had crossed the 50 in December)

#5) As a measure from head to neckline of about 1000 pips, which gives me a final target of about 1.45 or the .764 fib and the decending trendline of the wedge everybody knows. It could make this all in 3 weeks (just look back to September 2010) but I doubt it.

Of course we could just bounce off the 50% fib and fall off a cliff, but the .618 could be reachable if we power through the 1.3490. Will be watching pa like a hawk next week.

Rather simplistic, but it is playing out.

Ideally the pair could form a bearish Gartley...bounce off the .618 fib, then retreat to the .382 before continuing up towards the 1.42. The 1.30 is below a strong demand zone which lays between 1.3250 and 1.34 and should be safe ATM.
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