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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #122,961
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:56pm Feb 1, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting ken.b
Here are some other charts that I find interesting.

The first chart:

A pin bar formed at the bottom of the box and close within the box. The location of the pin bar creates space for price to move upwards (around 100+ pips) before reaching FTA. I'll go long at the break of the 0.95 BRN.

What is your view on this?

The second chart:

I'm confuse of what to expect from this pair. The price have broke through the monthly LLS. What should we expect price to do?
Regarding AUD/CHF, I like the idea of taking a break of 0.95. That way you have a cushion against a down move from the support zone underneath, the pin bar itself, and the 0.95 round number.

Regarding GBP/NZD, I guess depending on your style of trading you could play the waiting game for some definitive PA or if you touch trade Jarroo style, it might be on. Won't vouch for it though as I don't trade with the jarroo style. Pin Bar (Steve) might want to jump on that for you.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #122,962
  • Feb 2, 2013 12:46am Feb 2, 2013 12:46am
Quoting ghous

AUD/CHF[/b]

Your short on AUD/CHF made me cringe, because I see that you spotted a wick and wanted to see it fill in yet you over looked the all important fact that we were at a crucial support PPZ. Its at these points in the market, that a wick to a lower side will often point to strong buyside order flow tipping into the market.
Lots of good insight. Thanks! I watched this one as it developed and I was actually far more comfortable with the idea of taking a short than a long. The reason is the rather large daily bar immediately preceding the "pinbar" on 31 Jan 2013. That bar (162 pips, open-to-close) is bigger than any daily bar since the major SNB intervention on 6 Sep 2011 (which generated a bar of about 730 pips, open-to-close). Regardless of the PPZ immediately below, taking a long there seemed like stepping in front of a freight train with that huge bar on 30 Jan and all the downward momentum it represented. I felt it was better to just sit that one out and wait to see what happened, with perhaps a chance to enter later. I also think about fundamentals. The aussie has been rather subdued recently, while the euro has been on the rise. And the SNB is apparently content now to allow the franc to appreciate some as the euro rises. It makes it feasible to me that AUDCHF is trending downward. Now will it reverse or will it continue further into the congestion zone below? Time will tell.
  • #122,963
  • Feb 2, 2013 2:26am Feb 2, 2013 2:26am
Quoting Steve0001
Lots of good insight. Thanks! I watched this one as it developed and I was actually far more comfortable with the idea of taking a short than a long. The reason is the rather large daily bar immediately preceding the "pinbar" on 31 Jan 2013. That bar (162 pips, open-to-close) is bigger than any daily bar since the major SNB intervention on 6 Sep 2011 (which generated a bar of about 730 pips, open-to-close). Regardless of the PPZ immediately below, taking a long there seemed like stepping in front of a freight train with that huge bar on 30...
Hey Steve,

yes the pin bar in discussion was preceded by a big bearish bar. Importantly, big strong bars spreading over hundreds of pips aren't always indicative of strength. Now I am sure I am taking a lot of people by surprise as we're told the bigger the bar the better. Thing is, it once again boils down to the story going on. I am NOT talking about a big pin bar off a big PPZ in which case the big pin bar is obviously taken to be a strong signal. What I am talking about is a strong bar where price is heading into a PPZ as was the case with AUD/CHF. A lot of people are thinking that we dropped down and filled the pin bar wick because the pin bar was preceded with a strong bearish bar indicating that the bears were in power. Hold your horses right there!

Big range bars may mean one of two things:

1) There is serious momentum flowing through (the meaning we generally derive from big bars)

2) Price is in a hurry to hit a block of opposing orders, or to test a major PPZ which is not TRUE MOMENTUM (in terms of continuation of the strong rally) but simply a consensus over a certain price level (say a round number) in the market. Since there is little to fight for, price hurries into the PPZ quite often to reverse!

Attached is the same pair with more examples of the second phenomena (and I can show you as many as you want) where big bars head straight into a crucial level, and contrary to the beliefs of a lot of traders that this is momentum and price should comfortably break through, price in fact does quite the opposite and reverses JUST AS HARD! This is not coincidence. This is repetitive stuff, and a carnage scene, where ill-informed breakout traders are being stepped on and their orders (liquidity!) being used to execute huge opposite trades.

Similar action took place most recently on AUD/CHF. The reason why the wick got filled probably had to do with the area below the support zone still pending for a test. This was evident by the Firday bar's attempt to try and break through. Please pleeeze don't confuse strong movement into a PPZ as conclusive evidence that price will break through. I cringed when I saw a short being taken straight into a major support zone based off an erroneous understanding of the wick plays and as I now see probably an erroneous understanding of true momentum.

A question a lot of people here will probably be wondering over is that how do we then differentiate between big bars that mean momentum and big bars that are mere attempts to test a level in the market? One way to see it is, when a big bar heads away, or launches from a major area, it normally means it has muscle, while clearly when price is swiftly moving into a level, we should know that at the very least we need to be extra careful wanting to go in the direction of the swift movement for the simple reason that the bigger game in the market for now could be to drag price to a set of waiting orders (or an area of interest) rather than a breakout definitely.

g.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I believe . . .
  • #122,964
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:26am Feb 2, 2013 3:26am
Mike & others

Do you think we have sufficient confluence on usdchf?.

Chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #122,965
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:51am Feb 2, 2013 3:51am
Quoting zamfir
Mike & others

Do you think we have sufficient confluence on usdchf?.

Chart attached.
Hey Zamfir,

I also noticed a similar situation on CADCHF. Confluences:
fibonacci extension of the last swing (127.1)+support rejection (better seen on weekly chart)+ mini TL+ multipivot (can be seen on weekly too)+ BRN

What I don't like about both this and usdchf setup is the weak close of the pinbar we are observing. In your setup price hardly managed to close within previous day candle and in both cases the close is bearish (ie not so ideal pinbars).

Further more, USDCHF setup has a former S and former TL very close, so in my opinion it doesn't have so much space to run into.

let's see what the pros says
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  • #122,966
  • Feb 2, 2013 4:32am Feb 2, 2013 4:32am
Quoting Microtrader_
Your Welcome.
So far USDPLN has been working according to the expectations.
IMO normally it should not make us any bad surprise.
Finally USDPLN did the job as it was expected.
Unfortunately the pin bar (signed with red) closed my position in breakeven.
However this can just also strengthen that the system works correctly.
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  • #122,967
  • Feb 2, 2013 5:06am Feb 2, 2013 5:06am
Hello All,

Slowly reading through the thread (though not planning to read every single post - just too huge, will take years!). Have also watched some of the free videos on the PF site. What I would like clarified as I am a bit confused is which indicators J16 currently use on is higher frame (4hr plus) charts? As I see various EMAs, MACD, and sometimes channels (especially the early charts) etc.

Many thanks
Dan
  • #122,968
  • Feb 2, 2013 6:54am Feb 2, 2013 6:54am
Quoting zamfir
Mike & others

Do you think we have sufficient confluence on usdchf?.

Chart attached.
Confluence? Yes. Space? No.

the 9100 Round number and the prior swing low immediately to the left would make me worry.

At best I would be looking for a hard break of the pin bar.

g.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 29 KB
I believe . . .
  • #122,969
  • Feb 2, 2013 7:01am Feb 2, 2013 7:01am
Quoting CryAgony
Hey Zamfir,

I also noticed a similar situation on CADCHF. Confluences:
fibonacci extension of the last swing (127.1)+support rejection (better seen on weekly chart)+ mini TL+ multipivot (can be seen on weekly too)+ BRN

What I don't like about both this and usdchf setup is the weak close of the pinbar we are observing. In your setup price hardly managed to close within previous day candle and in both cases the close is bearish (ie not so ideal pinbars).

Further more, USDCHF setup has a former S and former TL very close, so in my opinion it doesn't...
Good stuff!

the close on both these pin bars could surely have been nicer.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #122,970
  • Feb 2, 2013 7:18am Feb 2, 2013 7:18am
Quoting danjuma
Hello All,

Slowly reading through the thread (though not planning to read every single post - just too huge, will take years!). Have also watched some of the free videos on the PF site. What I would like clarified as I am a bit confused is which indicators J16 currently use on is higher frame (4hr plus) charts? As I see various EMAs, MACD, and sometimes channels (especially the early charts) etc.

Many thanks
Dan
Hey Dan,

He uses the 150 and the 365 EMAs as sources of additonal confluence. in addition to this he probably uses a macd to spot divergence. Thats all. Here at the James16 group we are not big on indicators.



g.
I believe . . .
  • #122,971
  • Feb 2, 2013 7:30am Feb 2, 2013 7:30am
Quoting ghous
Good stuff!

the close on both these pin bars could surely have been nicer.

g.
thx for the nice feedback
  • #122,972
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:25am Feb 2, 2013 9:25am
Quoting ghous
Confluence? Yes. Space? No.

the 9100 Round number and the prior swing low immediately to the left would make me worry.

At best I would be looking for a hard break of the pin bar.

g.
yes, i was aware of the FTA @ the 9100 area. My thoughts were if we break above it and get a close , we could be bullish? wot say?
  • #122,973
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:52am Feb 2, 2013 9:52am
Quoting zamfir
yes, i was aware of the FTA @ the 9100 area. My thoughts were if we break above it and get a close , we could be bullish? wot say?
In that case yes.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #122,974
  • Feb 2, 2013 12:20pm Feb 2, 2013 12:20pm
Quoting james16
CHART
guys, just would like to know, on this chart, the bar after the pin bar, reaches the 61.8 ppz point and the previous pin bar's bar low, does it mean that price is going down or up??
  • #122,975
  • Feb 2, 2013 1:00pm Feb 2, 2013 1:00pm
Quoting Aretes
guys, just would like to know, on this chart, the bar after the pin bar, reaches the 61.8 ppz point and the previous pin bar's bar low, does it mean that price is going down or up??

Hi Aretes,

The chart you mentioned was about a bearish pinbar.
However, James didn't want to catch your attention upon price direction, but on the fact that this trade could have been managed either by getting a good chunk of profit or by getting a most likely loss.

Hope I cleared it out for you
  • #122,976
  • Feb 2, 2013 1:01pm Feb 2, 2013 1:01pm
Quoting Aretes
guys, just would like to know, on this chart, the bar after the pin bar, reaches the 61.8 ppz point and the previous pin bar's bar low, does it mean that price is going down or up??
That basically means price hit the first trouble area. We use prior bar highs and lows to distinguish areas where price can possibly hold at or worse still reverse from.

In this case, James is simply pointing out how a pin bar hit the previous bar's low which was in confluence with the 61.8 fib of the up move (hence adding to the strength of the trouble area) and then reversed off it.

To answer your question directly, it means price "may have trouble going down" because it has hit support created by the previous bar low.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #122,977
  • Feb 2, 2013 1:20pm Feb 2, 2013 1:20pm
Quoting Aretes
guys, just would like to know, on this chart, the bar after the pin bar, reaches the 61.8 ppz point and the previous pin bar's bar low, does it mean that price is going down or up??
Aretes -

Here is my take on this chart.

The point of this chart is not about whether price will go up or down on the bar after the pin bar. I personally wouldn't know whether price was going down or up after that. The point James is making (I believe) is all about a) the pin bar itself, and b) the EXTREME importance of first trouble area just below it. What James is showing is how a number of traders could have played that same pin short but one would be in a 90 pip win and another would be in 145+ pip loss (and maybe another came out at breakeven). So, was that pin "right" or "wrong"? Well, sorta both and sorta neither, it just depends on how it was played.

The critical point of this chart is that first trouble area and how it's SO important to take into account going into any trade. Would you trade right into that? It depends on the type of trader you are. The trader that wasn't aware of it and simply held this trade expecting a huge move down got killed. The trader that saw that FTA knew it was major trouble and knew there was a huge possibility of a bounce there, which leads to two trading decisions depending on your style: a) A conservative trader might stay out completely, or b) a more aggressive trader might take it but know going into it that they would need to be on their toes that day to get their stop to BE, or take profit at the FTA.

Hope this helps.
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #122,978
  • Feb 2, 2013 1:53pm Feb 2, 2013 1:53pm
3 Setups for upcoming week.
Gj long, cadchf and audchf short.
[ATTACH][ATTACH]
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[/ATTACH][/ATTACH]
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  • #122,979
  • Edited 2:21pm Feb 2, 2013 2:04pm | Edited 2:21pm
Hi!

Any "Jarroo-er" left here? I think I want to get deeper in this stuff. May I ask which one of you (or more of you) are the greatest jarroo followers?

Thanks, take care
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #122,980
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:29pm Feb 2, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting LamerTrader
Hi!

Any "Jarroo-er" left here? I think I want to get deeper in this stuff. May I ask which one of you (or more of you) are the greatest jarroo followers?

Thanks, take care
Stephen
Hi LamerTrader,
there are still a lot of "jarooers" here, for example Pinbar, Chanya, Ghous or Jarroo himself comes here from time to time. If you´re interested in his method, check pdf created by Chanya or Jaroos posts and charts (he´s got a lot of them).
Hope this helps

Mav
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