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The Really Useless Thread

  • #129,881
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:19am Feb 1, 2013 11:19am
Quoting sisse
Don't disagree with you ....but don't forget the other side: FED, BOJ, BOE, openly devaluing their currencies and the ECB except for interest rate cut is with its hands tie... As you know don't mess against CBs so carefully neutral for now...



Je je je .... "After the fact" indicator glamor .... A trend with a MA always hides those 6 or 7 consecutive micro breaks that will wipe out your confidence an account, highlight the easy bits, blurring the difficult ones when the right side of the chart is empty...and more i[b]mportantly never...
so glad you said it. one of those things where the underlying formula of averaging prices just does not support. literally plugging in numbers to get some value of the past.
  • #129,882
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:24am Feb 1, 2013 11:24am
Quoting sisse
Lagging very conservative long term money jumping in on the highs after a long time ... I seriously doubt we can break any further without a retrace. I am neutral too in equities but I am jumping in short on the first signal of weakness. Today we have a very decent top formation that only failed on NFP and the sheep loading at the highs ....

Patience, patience ...whatever the case the next leg up is the one to be long term as will go for bull levels above all time highs...and as you know that means ride the pig until the next bubble in few...
i could not w/o a pullback. right or wrong.. the scout is the first shot. the high is the last place in the past, the bears were strongest.. i am actually u.s. market positive because of energy. but still would like a pullback.. i suck at chasing
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #129,883
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:29am Feb 1, 2013 11:29am
Quoting gatorinla
i could not w/o a pullback. right or wrong.. the scout is the first shot. the high is the last place in the past, the bears were strongest.. i am actually u.s. market positive because of energy. but still would like a pullback.. i suck at chasing
I'm u.s. market positive in everything except politicians sabotaging the US economy for political gains later this year...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #129,884
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:32am Feb 1, 2013 11:32am
Quoting gatorinla
i dont know.. if dragass starts crying it would b better. the Germans need to say uncle. hatch has given the true story.. its not what we read from the media
Give it some time, our unemployment figures rose by 300.000 in December... atm they blame it on the season.
  • #129,885
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:33am Feb 1, 2013 11:33am
Quoting sisse
I'm u.s. market positive in everything except politicians sabotaging the US economy for political gains later this year...

sisse
put 5.9% over the past high and under the past high.. from the 2009 low.. i didn't do this yet.. never be surprised if that is the new high rejection..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #129,886
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:34am Feb 1, 2013 11:34am
Quoting Mr Hatch
Give it some time, our unemployment figures rose by 300.000 in December... atm they blame it on the season.
that's 11%, btw
  • #129,887
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:40am Feb 1, 2013 11:40am
Quoting Mr Hatch
Give it some time, our unemployment figures rose by 300.000 in December... atm they blame it on the season.
then it will snowball. probably uncontrollable for a time. your prices are 35% higher then Asian products since July.. Asian products that were already cheaper, before this. and your trying to sell/export to the same markets..your labor will be forced to cut wages further. reality is a mofu
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #129,888
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:48am Feb 1, 2013 11:48am
Quoting gatorinla
put 5.9% over the past high and under the past high.. from the 2009 low.. i didn't do this yet.. never be surprised if that is the new high rejection..
I am not sure if understand what you mean with past high (which one all time high 2007?).... If i plot a -5.9% from that high I reach 1483 (in S&P) which is exactly my rejection level in play right now but I arrived from a completely different approach.

While a+ 5.9% above (1669) is way to far for a rejection short and mid term but is +/- close to a potential 1st extension that come from the 2009 low which is final 1st target if we break all time highs with Quarterly ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #129,889
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:48am Feb 1, 2013 11:48am
Quoting gatorinla
then it will snowball. probably uncontrollable for a time. your prices are 35% higher then Asian products since July.. Asian products that were already cheaper, before this. and your trying to sell/export to the same markets..your labor will be forced to cut wages further. reality is a mofu
it dont matter who cuts what.. japan is winning the race. that's the reality... and the news dont tell you what you see. just pull out some paper and do some math.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #129,890
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:50am Feb 1, 2013 11:50am
short aussie and ej

Quoting pipper
Possible sell off later Aussie may be making it's move to the downside
Attached Image
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #129,891
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:51am Feb 1, 2013 11:51am
Quoting sisse
I am not sure if understand what you mean with past high (which one all time high 2007?).... If i plot a -5.9% from that high I reach 1483 (in S&P) which is exactly my rejection level in play right now but I arrived from a completely different approach.

While a+ 5.9% above (1669) is way to far for a rejection short and mid term but is +/- close to a potential 1st extension that come from the 2009 low which is final 1st target if we break all time highs with Quarterly ...

sisse
yes 2007 all-time high and the 2009 low. your greatest risk for rejection is there. you can also 1/4 those and see how they work
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #129,892
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:52am Feb 1, 2013 11:52am
Quoting gatorinla
then it will snowball. probably uncontrollable for a time. your prices are 35% higher then Asian products since July.. Asian products that were already cheaper, before this. and your trying to sell/export to the same markets..your labor will be forced to cut wages further. reality is a mofu
Yes Gator but don't forget that artificially devaluing a currency for extended period of times to hide real structural economic problems always end up very bad. There is no one single example in economic history that country has succeed in just playing with a cheap currency and the Germans know it by heart ...last time they did it (early 20th century) they had the worst hyperinflation and recession in their history and some even blame as strong reason for WWI and II...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #129,893
  • Feb 1, 2013 12:06pm Feb 1, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting sisse
Yes Gator but don't forget that artificially devaluing a currency for extended period of times to hide real structural economic problems always end up very bad. There is no one single example in economic history that country has succeed in just playing with a cheap currency and the Germans know it by heart ...last time they did it (early 20th century) they had the worst hyperinflation and recession in their history and some even blame as strong reason for WWI and II...

sisse
exactly. but its all comparatively... Asia did it to the u.s., what saved the u.s. is we always produced the food others needed. we have the commodities/energy. a luxury Germany does not have. they are phucked.. unlike the u.s. they dont have a counter balance. if not for a big gun and the rest.. the u.s. would have been in even worse shape. Its not an apple to apple comparative.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #129,894
  • Feb 1, 2013 12:06pm Feb 1, 2013 12:06pm
Check what happen and Looks to me
I LV IT Soon maybe 2 weeks my TP will Hit
  • #129,895
  • Feb 1, 2013 12:08pm Feb 1, 2013 12:08pm
? How you keeping EK

Quoting egkid
Check what happen and Looks to me
I LV IT Soon maybe 2 weeks my TP will Hit
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #129,896
  • Feb 1, 2013 12:29pm Feb 1, 2013 12:29pm
have a good weekend... we will c what happens.. lose a little when wrong.. make a lot when right.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #129,897
  • Feb 1, 2013 12:30pm Feb 1, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
exactly. but its all comparatively... Asia did it to the u.s., what saved the u.s. is we always produced the food others needed. we have the commodities/energy. a luxury Germany does not have. they are phucked.. unlike the u.s. they dont have a counter balance. if not for a big gun and the rest.. the u.s. would have been in even worse shape. Its not an apple to apple comparative.
That the only thing I disagree with you. You are underestimating the importance of real economic competitiveness and that's where the Germans excel.

Sure you can have natural advantages (like 99% of the poor countries in the world), sure you can have artificial advantages (devaluation, tariffs, protectionism, etc), sure you can have Geographical advantage but none of the can replace real proper economic structures.

The US is what it is because of its superb superb efficient competitiveness and innovation. Sure energy, commodities and resources help but that's not enough reason to be on top, otherwise all Latin America, most Asian and some African will rule the economic world.... What is for you a disadvantage is actually quite the opposite, with the worst recession in Europe, with a flying Euro, protectionism flirting around not only the world but in within Europe.... and the Germans still can keep in the game ...imaging when thing shift to a little bit better times...

Look serious macroeconomic management (talking deficit, debt, etc), focusing on the real economic structures instead of devaluing like Japan or crying wolf like the UK will always always pay back in the mid and long term .... point is when a country pass the line of 2nd or 3rd world to 1st world not everything about cheap energy, food or labour as 70% of the GDP become services so real competitiveness is the real deal not artificial devaluations...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #129,898
  • Feb 1, 2013 12:31pm Feb 1, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting pipper
? How you keeping EK
All under control
Quoting egkid
Hello ALL

Positions in Play
e/u
1.2685 , 1.2748 , 1.2750 , 1.2890, 1.30 , If NFP go as i wait will add one last order next week
Plan goes Very good
  • #129,899
  • Feb 1, 2013 12:31pm Feb 1, 2013 12:31pm
Greedy boy

Quoting egkid
All under control
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #129,900
  • Feb 1, 2013 12:50pm Feb 1, 2013 12:50pm
sisse


u might get a close below 3650 for W roll thats will make me happy too and i will love to see a close on cable below 5700

leaving equities till next week lets see the close
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