Total newbie in forex - just a month live trading

Also, I'm reading through your thread and I've noticed that you've asked about posting statements.
A very effective way is to go to your terminal in mt4, ->go to account history -> right click on any of your trades -> save as detailed report -> take a screenshot of the report and upload it as a picture anywhere on the internet.

If you already know this please disregard this post

Good trade today , prediction 80% correct for this week - no idea for next week , need to read & get more info on market condition by news.

Close all trade manually 30 minute after london close , inliquidity on all pairs . Friday - market closing.

Time to rest and for the family & friends.

Will do post- mortem tomorrow and clean up all chart for next week top down analysis as usuall.

Keep the motto ....

Stay focused , stay discipline & follow the rules.

Trade well.

Bye my journal.

HI ELIN ,

THANKS AGAIN FOR THE ADVISED.

GOOD QUESTION ELIN....

SOME PRO TRADER NOT USE PIVOT & SOME USE IT , I DONE MY BACK TESTING FEW MONTH BEFORE , THERE IS ON FIB. PIVOT LEVEL, WOODIE PIVOTS ,CAMARRILA PIVOT, DEMARK PIVOT... THATS ALL I KNOW BUT WHICH ONE IS THE BEST I GOT NO IDEA . SOMETIME I REFER TO FOREXTIKET PIVOT POINT TABLE THERE , ITS USE STANDART PIVOT POINT BASE ON GMT FOR EACH CURRENCY PAIRS. BUT ITS TO MESSY AND A LOT OF TABLE , CAN MAKES ME CONFUSES .

SO , TILL I GET THE PIVOT INDICATOR HERE IN FOREX FACTORY FORUM NAME " ZMFX all pivot levels " version 1 and version 2 .since im using black background on my chart i use version 1. a lot of feature can be set on the properties.

i do have the note and articles on PIVOT , to answer your question. i do posted here tomorrow , needs to seach where im save it my laptop.

example here from my back test demo account.

by the way thanks ELIN for your kind and concern.

trade well ok.

thanks elin for the helps.

FOR ELIN AND OTHERS ,

FROM MY READING ON WEB ABOUT THE " PIVOT POINT".

Pivot points are extremely useful tool, especially because they are leading indicators. As everyone know we have only a few really leading indicators –

1. Fib extensions and retracements

2. Oscillator Predictor .

3. Pivot points.

4. the rest still searching.

Since they are so few, we should not ignore any of them. They give us a huge advantage, because we know them ahead of time. Another important quality of Pivots is that they are objective – they absolutely do not depend on the person who draws them. So, you and me see the same pivot points. This is because pivot points are calculated based on prices of previous trading periods. soon everyones will know how its work.

Pivot points look very similar to Fibonacci retracement levels, but have absolutely different calculation algorithm.

The TDI also the lagging Indicator but given us and will show hidden divergence then only its act. as leading indicators....depends on traders eyes how they spot it.

Why are they so important about the PIVOT ?............. to me from the reading too , for many reason .............

1. Not all traders look at them, some like me yes .... as with Fibonacci, Pivots are almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. But it happens not only due that reason, but also because the pivot formula has some statistical qualities, that’s why I belived they work.

2. Pivot points could show me where the support or resistance could appear in advance. Especially, if they are weekly or monthly pivot points. In this case we will know this levels for whole future week or month;

3. Price action around pivot point allows us to judge about market sentiment.

4. Pivot points touches by the market in 70-80% of cases. Other words, it is 70% probability that market will touch the weekly pivot during the week or monthly pivot during the month.

5.The calculation are , Pivot t = (High t-1 + Low t-1 + Close t-1)/3 ,I think all trader know it & there is a free pivot calculator on web, since i got the pivot indicator so no need to calculate.


The general use of Pivot points just copy & paste from the web...Im reading it for 100 x then only understand , how to use it )

1. It is preferable to use pivot points 1 time frame higher than that of our trading time frame . If we trade on the daily time frame – use weekly pivots, if we trade on the weekly time frame – monthly. If we trade intraday – we may use daily pivot points as well;

2. Higher time frame pivots are very important for lower time frames. Say if we trade on 30-min charts it does not mean that we should not take into consideration weekly pivots and focus on daily ones only. We have to know where weekly and monthly pivots are even if we trade on 5-min charts.

3. Application of daily pivot points is not spread wide. Some traders use them, but they are much weaker than weekly and monthly. I use them. But this is personal – if they work for you – use them!

4. It’s usually assumed that pivot resistance 1 estimates the high for the period and pivot support 1 estimates the low for the period. For example, if we talk about week, then weekly resistance 1 shows the potential high for the week, and weekly pivot support 1 shows the potential low. The same for monthly pivots. But this is just an assumption and not a rule of thumb.

5. Usually the market trades pivot points during the period with a probability around 70-80%. It means that the probability of touching the weekly pivot point by the market during the week is 70-80%. So, if you intend to enter long, but the market stands above the pivot and has not touched it yet – the probability on your side. Possibly you will get much better entry point, when market tends to pivot point. The same is true for downward scenario.

6. When market retraces during a long-term bull trend on the daily chart – it usually retraces to the weekly pivot point or weekly pivot support 1. If market breaks pivot support 1 after a strong up trend – it could be an early notification about breaking of the previous tendency.


7. When market retraces during long-term bear trend on daily chart – it usually retraces to the weekly pivot point or weekly pivot resistance 1. If market breaks pivot resistance 1 after strong down trend – it could be an early notification about breaking of the previous tendency.

8. Pivot point, resistance 1 and support 1 are the most important levels, others have much less importance.

9. Combination of pivots with Fib support/resistance, common support/resistance or overbought/oversold areas makes them stronger.

10. If the market hits some important Fib extension target (usually 1.0 or 1.618) at oversold/overbought area and then moves below/above weekly pivot point – it tells that retracement has started and the move could be very strong;

11. We got to understand why does the market take a directional move or retracement move by applying pivot points. If the market does not touch weekly pivot supports 1 in an up move on daily chart or pivot resistance 1 in a down move and weekly pivot point holds market – then the market isin a directional move. If the market reaches support 1 during up move or resistance 1 in a down move – hence, market falls into retracement.

12. If the market stands near the pivot point on Monday – it’s better to wait while it will test it during the US trading session and choose the direction before entering the market.

13. If the market shows a strong bull/bear trend during a number of weeks on the daily chart when price rarely has touched even weekly pivot points and then the market turns to sideways consolidation, forms some bearish/bullish reversal pattern (engulfing for instance) inside this consolidation and close below/above weekly pivot – it could warn about a future strong downside/upside move.

14. If the market shows a strong bull/bear trend during a number of weeks on the daily chart when price rarey has touched even weekly pivot points then market close below/above weekly pivot and during of week after that reaches support2/resistance 2– it could tell trend reversal;

15. If market reaches upward 0.618 Fib extension target at the end of the week and next week’s pivot stands near close price – we may use price action around it as a filter – will market go to 1.0 extension or not. If market will move and hold above weekly pivot on Monday, then probably the next target is 1.0 Fib extension. The same is true for downward move.

16. Pivot point is a market sentiment indicator. If the market flirts with pivot but holds above it, then the market has bullish bias, if it moves below th pivot and holds there – bearish bias. Hence:

17. And the most important rule:

- NEVER STAND AGAINST THE PIVOT! –

If market is above the pivot – do not enter short, if it below it – do not enter long. This rule is applicable to corresponding time frame. If, say, market moves far above Weekly Pivot point and reaches Weekly Pivot resistance 1 or 2 – we could count on and wait for retracement lower to enter Long in terms of daily time frame (i.e. we should not enter short). But we also could do intraday bearish scalp trade – there is no problem with it.

Trading breakouts of different pivot lines. ( from the reading too)

I’m not the big follower of breakout trading. In fact, all that dedicated to support/resistance line trading and rectangle trading is applicable to pivot trading. Pivots are just another sort of support and resistance, but they are support and resistance. Professionals rarely trade breakouts as the public does. If they expect some breakout - they prefer to have a position prior the breakout itself or open one on some retracement following the breakout to be a very wise rule – “Buy deeps and Sell rallies”. That’s why they are absolutely calm during the breakout and leave all turmoil to the public. Market makers also like it when the public trade breakouts, because the public open positions right before, at or right after the breakout. Thus lets market makers make some fakes to grab the public’s stops.

So, there are a couple of ways to trade breakouts – aggressive and conservative. The aggressive way assumes that we enter right at the moment of breakout, while conservative way suggests that we enter in the direction of a breakout during the first retracement back towards the broken line.

The aggressive way has only one advantage, compared to the second, conservative way. It allows us to take a position if the market will not show any retracement after breakout.

The second way is safer and closer to what professionals do. Also with the second approach we can place a tight stop. The weak moment is that sometime the market will not show this retracement and continue to move higher.

When we need to make such choice always follow the rule – “Loss of possibility is preferable to loss of capital”. From this standpoint the choice is obvious


last story of the PIVOT POINT . (good keeping all the info in the journal , its normally lost & forgoten -how to do the revision next)


Here is some additional advice to breakout trading:

1. Before entering the market be sure that beyond the border that we expect will be broken there are no strong areas of support/resistance, targets or oversold/overbought areas. They could lead to fake outs.

2. Apply all tools that we know to make as safe an entry as possible and place as close of a reasonable stop as possible. This could be trend, oversold/overbought, patterns etc. Say, if the market shows upper breakout but hits overbought – there is great probability that this break will fail. Especially if it has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the next day after the breakout (in terms of the daily chart).

3. Despite the way of entry we choose – we never know with certainty if the move will continue or not.

4. It’s better to stay aside of breakout trading during news or macro data releases, while this is not our trading strategy. Because this is really doom and gloom environment that leads to multiple spikes, fake outs and volatility increasing. So – always keep an eye on macro data time & date schedule.


Estimation of market sentiment with Pivot points

Well.... So let’s shortly repeat the most important thoughts:

1. There is great probability that the market will touch the Pivot point during the trading period – WPP during the week and MPP during the month. We can say, that market tends to pivot’s first touch;

2. In the beginning of the period (week or month) – look how the market will behave around the pivot. If market flirts with it, moves above and holds – sentiment is bullish, otherwise – bearish;

3. Sentiment in the beginning of the period does not mean that it should hold constant during whole period. It could change, for example due to some data release;

4. Keep in mind the overall market environment. Let’s suppose that market’s solid long-term trend on daily chart. It means that usual price action – pivot touch & go. If it has not happened and market moved below pivot during current week – it does not mean that trend has been broken. It just tells us that that possibly the market has turned to deeper retracement to WPS1. The same is true for downtrend and WPR1. Here you should apply our rules 5,6,7, 11 and 14;

5. Don’t make application of Pivot too simple. This is not the rule as “market above the pivot – buy, and below pivot – sell”. Use it as a part of overall analysis.

below attach the pivot point on previous trading session GBP/USD ..just take a look

I expect everyone knows how to read the charts and all traders knows the price travel from level to level.....so just follow the route , similar likes driving , stop at red traffics light then accelerate on green light...looks left & right before thats ....in trading always looks left cos market structure history leave us the clues " the key price level" similar likes gps to shows us the propability of market price might move to the next level.

need to read and learn more about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" ? still search and do the compilation...maybe anyone may do the helps.

Good read, thanks

Time for a top-down analysis

Ramlanne, hope you don't mind me posting a bit of my own analysis.


EUR/USD

Weekly:
The weekly demand is pushing price higher, first clean supply areas are seen around 61.8 and 78.6 fib levels until this areas are reached my outlook is bullish.
We can also see important S&R flips in this areas (forgot to plot them)

http://i49.tinypic.com/34p1e7b.gif

Daily:
On daily I've outlined potential reversal areas if a pullback appears. These are around 61.8 and 50 fib levels.

http://i49.tinypic.com/2h2oxlh.gif

30M:

S&R flip areas show where price has turned, there still might be unfilled buy orders in these areas
http://i45.tinypic.com/soo74o.gif

GBP/USD

Weekly:
Price travels from upper supply to a lower demand in a channel. The demand seems to be consumed on a way down, therefore my HTF outlook on this
pair is bearish.

http://i47.tinypic.com/17sp46.gif

1H:

1h shows where I'm expecting reversal reactions if a pullback occurs, I will be looking for a pin bars or engulfings.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2utkj1f.gif

Ramlanne,

I've noticed you've dropped 10EMA off your charts.
Are you still using is as a part of your trading rules?

Also I've send you PM in regards to supply and demand trading.

Regards,

El1n

[quote=El1n;6414272]Ramlanne, hope you don't mind me posting a bit of my own analysis.


HELLO EL1N,

SORRY LATE UPDATE , AWAY FROM HOME ...HAVING OUTING FUNCTION WITH MY FAMILY.

IT'S OK FOR YOU OR ANYONES TO POST HERE , AS LONG AS IS GOOD FOR US.

YOUR TOP DOWN I THINK MORE PERFECT THEN ME I GUESS COS YOU REFER TO S & D , BUT ACTUALLY ALMOST THE SAME LIKE MINE.

I THINK YOU GOT MORE EXPERIENCE THEN ME ON TRADING - EXCELLENCE EL1N.

BELOW MY TOP DOWN ON GBP/USD , THE REST OF THE PAIRS COMING ... A LITTLE BIT TIRED ON THE FUNCTION.

JUST WAIT AND SEE , WHAT HAPPEND ON M15 AND I WILL WAIT FOR THE VALID SIGNAL THEN ONLY PULL THE TRIGGER . NORMALLY I'LL USED BUY STOP ORDER AND BUY LIMIT ORDER AND THE TARGET ARE THE ROUND NUMBER (RN) ...LEVEL TO LEVEL TRADE MUCH SAFER . HOW EVER NEEDS MORE FOCUS ON THE SWING TO SWING TRADE...NEEDS TO CONSIDER THE PIVOT LEVEL FIRST BEFORE ENTER LONG OR SHORT.

OVERALL GBP/USD BEGINNING OF THE WEEK STILL BEARISH , HOW DEEP THEY GO NO ONES KNOW...MY RULES STILL THE SAME ... " IF THEN " APPLY.

hello again el1n,

no ...still use it , the 10 ema day is a parts of my trading rules ... To identified trend besides the confirmation on the 89 ema . On the pivot point chart above , since the back ground are grey , i change the 10 ema day color to black . I guess u more experience , u knows the difference betweeen normall 10 ema & 10 ema day.

Thanks for the concern el1n

OHh yea.... about the S&D ... I DO SURF THE WEB THAT U PM ME , STILL STUDY ON ITS BUT FOR THE TIME BEING TILL I REALLY UNDERSTAND IT THEN ONLY I WILL USE IT.....TOO MANY LESSSON IN TRADING ....WOWWW.. NEED ANOTHERS 5 YEARS TO BE SEMI-PRO TRADERS .. HOPEFULLY.

Keep it up.

Hey Ramalanne,

Thanks for another insightful analysis with the use of TDI and EMAs and Pivots.

I have a little experience with TDI and little to none with EMAs and Pivots. However, i know that some traders
are using them very successfully (you are a living proof) so I've decided to incorporate them into my S/D, S/R trading style
for additional confirmation.

Looking forward to seeing your future posts.

Hello again EL1N,

if they work for you ....use them right...if not ignore it.

my top down eur/usd on monday attach below all analysis on the chart ... hope its work this week.

to EL1N , your analysis much better then me cos of S & D involved.

I might put a buy limit order just above WR2 cos on M15 Price stop exactly on top of the t/line and top of friday tokyo channel & its was 61.8 fib.r , I predict by IF THEN concept , price mostly looking and kiss WR2 to completion of the ABCD and pullback upwards THEN HIT my buy limit order.2nd entry will be buy stop order just above RN 1.36500 . BOTH TARGET SAME RN. means if price pullback from the top tokyo channel , I do cancel the buy limit order below . NORMALLY I do that strategy to all pairs cos no one knows where the price move on the next bar....by topdown its 80% HELP to tell me the probabilty .correct me if i'm wrong.

I like to be wrong by market proven me wrong , i'm happy & enjoyed to be wrong Then only I know there is another wrong rules & wrong steps occurs . I will make a note and record it in my journal .will not repeat it agains and continue waiting for the next wrong move , take note and continue the journey.

The only thing thats I can't do anything WHEN the MARKET MAKER JUMPING IN & taking advantages on the retails traders ....wash n rinse / stop loss hunter , etc...

continue the weekly top down......

Get it from compass fx about the tdi.

Wrote by dean malone....i read it more than 100 x.

I just add anothers level 20 , 80 & 100 , just in case , so far its work if not i would not taking the trade above/below 32 - 68...ob/os area but lately market goes crazy.

Behavior modification.

THIS DOC SPECIALLY FOR EL1N & THOSE INTERESTED COS EVERYONE SEE THE SAME CHART.

JUST TRAIN OUR EYES ....I TOOK ABOUT 3 MONTHS .

Ramlanne,

Great analysis !
Regarding to he EUR/USD, the area at WR2 as you pointed out does make a lot of sense once looked at M15.
It also in demand area and sitting on a small S/R flip. I probably won't be around to trade tomorrow, unless I dare to trade off my phone.

http://i46.tinypic.com/14ailpk.gif

Thanks of the TDI doc as well, I will give it a read once i find enough free time.

May pips go your way next week!

ok good el1n ... I'm not really understand yet about s & d , so whats your suggestion anyway ...as you know as well my trading time frame on h1.... Pls advised.

I've only sort of confirmed your analysis from a different perspective.

Eur/jpy top down

the story on chart

Most all pairs still trap in tokyo channel on london open , waiting tokyo close then only might be make a move above/below .

My eur/usd but limit order hits at 1.36065 ...lucky , wish price turn bullish after tokyo close.

BUT PRICE GO FUTHER DOWN , TOUCH WEEKLY PIVOT ....WOW,..

HIGH IMPACTS ON SPANISH UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE NEWS I GUESS...PRICE TOUCH 1.35920 AND STILL HOLD AT WEEKLY PIVOT.

ANOTHER HIGH IMPACTS NEWS COMING UP --GBP

Same on aud/usd , nzd/usd & usd/cad

Same on yen pairs .

The tokyo channel not completed till tokyo channel ...so , i will see how even all buy stop has been hit, accept chf/jpy coming up , will set sl again after tokyo close.