james16 Chart Thread

My view is not an expert one but I'd say this PB lost its beauty by the end of the day. It was marvelous 6 hours ago, but 0.95 remain resistance. If you scroll down lower Tfs (1h-4h), you will see that all attempts to close above have falied. Its a pity coz it realy looked promising earlier the day.

It depends how you look at it :-)

toti

Hi pip_la!
Im new so don't take me too seriously but:
-USD/CAD: I wouldn't enter, because the price hasn't got too much space to move. The FTA is way to close IMO.
-CAD/CHF: Looks better, but dunno. Ask a pro If I would have to pick one, I would take short, but I wouldn't bet on it

EURNZD

Took the touch of the DHCR. The RN 1.6100 is right below it. I took majority of position off the table at my second target because the 365ema is causing some resistance. Right now price is at my entry and Im hanging on. Price might hit my stop or the DHCR might still act as support. We will see.



Rolo

I have a question about stops. I hear many here say they enter some trades with a tight stop. Are you using a certain price per pip or still using a .5% or 1% of account? Or do you pick a reasonable area to put a stop and use .5% or 1% but immediately adjust your stop?

Rolo

Are we going back to test 1.5800?

Hey Rolo

Normally my trading consists of full bar stops. The times I use a tight stop I always reduce my risk. This tends to me from a half to a quarter of my normal risk. So I risk 2% on full bar stops, then for other plays like wick/touch trades that I do I risk from .5-1%. This is because I lose a lot of flexibility on trade mgmt

Best
Mike

Hey, Mike. Educational question about wick trades. I read about it in this tread here and there. Do I understand right on the example:
Aud/chf. Price failed to close above 0.95, we sell on the close of a dayly bar to the wick. The low of the previous bar is our target?
I demoed it,as I think it suits the criteria you mention for that game. Plese let me know if I misunderstand smth.

Hi there, may i know what kind of pivot points zone is james16 using in all these charts inside the pdf? thank you!

EURUSD
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ge17xQrTW1...d_daily_zz.gif

I have a question for the Seniors of this thread,it is regarding PA crossing Pivot zone on daily chart, the next day would be OK to drop down to 1H chart and enter on pullback to pivot zone, or is preferable to wait for the pullback on the 4H or daily chart??
Thanks

Its ok to be using a multi time frame analysis. The only problem is people will sometimes get carried away and end up over trading. So you have a break out on the daily and they'll be eager to catch anything that looks like a pin bar on the pull back on a time frame anywhere from 4H to 5M. This is where it gets a little tricky.

Every time frame has its own order flow, and while you can look to relate the order flows of different time frames its a good idea to use time frames that are close by. For a daily PPZ for instance I wouldn't want to go lower than the 1H, for a weekly PPZ probably nothing lower than the 4H.

g.

Hey guys!

What do you all think about GBPAUD ? Today it approached a ppz and got rejected, forming a Pin on H4.
D1 confluences: close to 150 ema+fibo retr+ppz

I entered at the break of the h4 pin low.
I'm going to move to BE if price closes below 1.52 LCS

Hey Majestic,

This is not Mike, but allow me to chime in if that's ok,

Mike's wick plays are a result of his knowledge of price dynamics backed by years of practice. These wick plays can get you in trouble very quickly (and very deeply) if you don't strive to understand the times these plays can be undertaken. Believe me, with very little knowledge of the markets one can still expect to be lucky a lot of times if one just learns how to spot the A+ pin bar. That's why all newbies are strongly suggested to start off by kerning to trade A grade setups with A grade bars. Simply put its the easiest and the most simplistic way of understanding price action and dynamics. You are bound to be a lot less lucky, if you're delving into advanced stuff without knowing it in and out.

Mike's wick plays are an extension of the basic material and use Mike's wonderful ability of judging the on going story in the market to pin point moments when price is very likely to "fill in a wick it has created". Its not as simple as locating a large wick at swing points and trading in its direction.

The idea is that if a market prints a wick (as in closes weakly) yet still manages to close above a crucial S/R area that you think will hold and only allow price to again head in the direction it failed to move strongly into previously, then that is worth a trade.

From an order flow perspective, when the market moves beyond a strong area, and takes out some stops (resulting in a pull back to the PPZ) it will often create a wick. If the opposite party doesn't get into the action, it actually clears the space up for fresh orders to come in and propel price into the direction of the wick (no more stops to curtail the momentum of orders). What systematizes the whole deal for Mike is, that if despite the wick, price still manages to close above a major PPZ then there is a good chance that fresh orders are going to come in and propel price into this "vacuum" created by the wick.

USD/CAD

This one, as confirmed by Mike, fulfilled the criteria for his wick play. Price cut through 1.000 parity level like a hot knife through butter (first sign that the bulls are strong). It closed weakly in reaction to the prior swing high (and opened above it) (second sign that there isn't much sell side order flow developing).

Given this back ground, its easy to see for some one like Mike (with tonnes of experience and thousands of hours of chart time) that the weak close merely represented a stop hunt above that prior swing high, and that given the strength of the bulls, they should really look at it as an evacuation of orders above the swing high for them to move through easily.

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The tricky part is that the most valid pin bar will also always be a stop hunt. Most times it takes a lot of experience to know when a wick is a mere feeble stop hunt and when it symbolizes a real effort by the professional hand to reverse the market. The answer almost always lies with the location.

AUD/CHF

Your short on AUD/CHF made me cringe, because I see that you spotted a wick and wanted to see it fill in yet you over looked the all important fact that we were at a crucial support PPZ. Its at these points in the market, that a wick to a lower side will often point to strong buyside order flow tipping into the market.

What would have been a more favorable situation? The wick being in the vacant area under the blue zone (indicating a wipe out of stop losses) and then a close below the blue area. Do you see how that would have been a stronger sign given that the next day's bar would have had to deal with a tonne of former support that we know can turn into resistance and only allow price to move into the area of least resistance, and that would have been down because of the "vacuum" created by the wick?

I am sure Mike will get to this too, but if you have more questions please shoot.
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New people do not panic! No you don't have to know all this stuff just yet to be able to master the markets. None of this is rocket science and its good ol' common sense once you have enough chart time under your belt. Relax and get back to hunting those A grade pin bars!

g.

*phew*

First trade of the month - I watched this lvl from some time, recently I've got pbt&ca, so bought at pullback, close to 1.3 brn...

Closed by now - more than 100 pips, but sl was quite tight - a little more than 30 pips - so I'm quite proud of this trade...

I'm very fond of situation like this - hcr/lcs close to eachother (also weekly) with brn as confluence - it's great tool...

Thank-you, Ghous much appreciated,

Thank you very much Ghous. I greatly appreciate your input.

some good stuff i've been watching

Hey M

Ghous gave a great explanation on some of the wick dynamics. It's something I would stay away from though until grasping the normal use of pinbars and other bars. In this case since price closed as a pin it's an easy reason to stay out as well as price forming off strong support. If that bar was stuck under as resistance and couldn't close as a pin that would be a great way to play it

Best
Mike