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  • #16,481
  • Jan 31, 2013 7:56am Jan 31, 2013 7:56am
Quoting T@rantula
That is deeper retracement yes. And now the question is when will 3600 break? If it breaks today only on VERY STRONG nfp results dollar can benefit, but that would be only temporary effect and pair might drop to that deeper retrace tomorrow. My levels for deeper retracements are 3515-05. Intraday retracement ( on my intraday analysis) has been good so far as 3540 dips have been bought.

I still have a part of long trade in ( I have scaled out) targeting for 3615 today, only because 3540-30 hasnt been taken. Break of 3592 should give us that.
yep, your bullish scenario came into play
  • #16,482
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:06am Jan 31, 2013 8:06am
Quoting infinitus
yep, your bullish scenario came into play
Yes but we need 3592 clear break and at least a candle close above it. If that doesnt happen today NFP will give us the breakout or deeper retrace.
  • #16,483
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:24am Jan 31, 2013 8:24am
Quoting T@rantula
Yes but we need 3592 clear break and at least a candle close above it. If that doesnt happen today NFP will give us the breakout or deeper retrace.


upside structure is very curious - does not look like impulsive


either ending diagonal up with target around 3611 to 3641, or todays low was wave A, the top today is end of wave B of an ABC-flat (down), now in wave C down
  • #16,484
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:14am Jan 31, 2013 9:14am
Murrey Math



5min TF

risk 3595 to 3603; chance 3565


15min TF


risk at 3611 to 3619; chance 3550 and below


1h TF

risk 3611 to 3676, but the latter one would be fairly stretched; maybe 3641 extended


4h TF

risk 3611 and above octave jump with more bullish implications


daily TF


risk 3672, chance 3184 to 3306; maybe more bearish later
  • #16,485
  • Jan 31, 2013 11:44am Jan 31, 2013 11:44am
Thanx for the MM levels Markus

I think we will be in 3560-88 range until late Asia. And if Asia manages to break 3600 anything can happen on NFP release.

IF NFP numbers come out good dollar should gain strength which would be boosted probably by profit taking later during the day. Ill post setup tomorrow.

If NFP were released now it would be easy to trade it. Breakout of 3539 fast 10 pips, breakout of 3592 fast 10 pips. It will be interesting to see what they will come with this time.

So atm the situation is clear. The candle close above 3592 to the upside is major concern for bulls and bears are in difficult situation as even slide to 3515-05 is bullish.
  • #16,486
  • Jan 31, 2013 2:26pm Jan 31, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting T@rantula
Thanx for the MM levels Markus

I think we will be in 3560-88 range until late Asia. And if Asia manages to break 3600 anything can happen on NFP release.

IF NFP numbers come out good dollar should gain strength which would be boosted probably by profit taking later during the day. Ill post setup tomorrow.

If NFP were released now it would be easy to trade it. Breakout of 3539 fast 10 pips, breakout of 3592 fast 10 pips. It will be interesting to see what they will come with this time.

So atm the situation is clear. The candle close...


for me touch of 3496 would start to look bearish, break of 3413 would confirm this view (EW sight)

from Murrey math point of view break of 3184 on daily chart would start to look bearish, break below 2695 may negate bullish views


so you can see: we have to travel far to the downside to get bearish impression
  • #16,487
  • Jan 31, 2013 11:34pm Jan 31, 2013 11:34pm
Quoting infinitus
Murrey Math


1h TF

risk 3611 to 3676, but the latter one would be fairly stretched; maybe 3641 extended


4h TF

risk 3611 and above octave jump with more bullish implications


daily TF


risk 3672, chance 3184 to 3306; maybe more bearish later

well, let us see: 3641 nearly hit


risk on 1h TF 3672 and 3687

risk on 4h TF 3672, extended 3733


would love to see 3672, because then all TF's should be aligned
  • #16,488
  • Feb 1, 2013 4:24am Feb 1, 2013 4:24am
Quoting infinitus
well, let us see: 3641 nearly hit


risk on 1h TF 3672 and 3687

risk on 4h TF 3672, extended 3733


would love to see 3672, because then all TF's should be aligned
All TFs have been aligned. Great job of aligning octaves together mate
Hey Markus and guys,

As we can see those who have patiently waited for targets ( 3615 3645) have had their pockets full of pips. The price has overshot to 3670 and now it came back to important 3645. As we can see on daily TF, we have INVERSE head and shoulders variant and also target for the move is 3800.

NFP will be important today as boost to dollar could send the pair back to 3580 and weakness aims 3700 and above. If profit taking on DOLLAR WEAKNESS takes its toll 3800 is also possible. We need to be very careful not to lose profits today as we have NFP + FRIDAY profit taking.

Ill be here watching NFP and possibly giving some trading suggestions.

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  • #16,489
  • Feb 1, 2013 4:26am Feb 1, 2013 4:26am
well well look at that puppy fly...

I still have targets up in the 1.38 and 1.41 region... turning points can be 1.43 or 1.47... i think above there we will break into the 1.5xx levels...

i am no longer trading spot FX now - stopped a week ago... I will continue to do analysis when and where i can and share my opinion... but no more spot trading...
  • #16,490
  • Feb 1, 2013 4:34am Feb 1, 2013 4:34am
Quoting jaylovin
well well look at that puppy fly...

I still have targets up in the 1.38 and 1.41 region... turning points can be 1.43 or 1.47... i think above there we will break into the 1.5xx levels...

i am no longer trading spot FX now - stopped a week ago... I will continue to do analysis when and where i can and share my opinion... but no more spot trading...
Why did u stop trading spot FX mate?
  • #16,491
  • Feb 1, 2013 4:39am Feb 1, 2013 4:39am
Hello ALL

Positions in Play
e/u
1.2685 , 1.2748 , 1.2750 , 1.2890, 1.30 , If NFP go as i wait will add one last order next week
Plan goes Very good
  • #16,492
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:34am Feb 1, 2013 5:34am
Not so good NFP, EU facing resistance between 3660-70. Seems bullish, 3630 is support now. Am not happy with this NFP, I wont trade it, spike was not retraced.

Seems bullish but for me to enter a long scalp i need spike retracement to 50-78.6 fib of initial spike.
  • #16,493
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:34am Feb 1, 2013 5:34am
Quoting T@rantula
Why did u stop trading spot FX mate?
Spot was takin over my life. And changed me over the last few years. Watching markets while doing day job crippling my already satisfactory career. And by doing
That was losing more than gaining. Never slept at night cause looked for trades in Tokyo session. Scalping continuously all day became a big headache not respecting MM... baby sitting trades when I should have switched off and become human again doing normal social thing... I am not a trader.. You must
Have right mindset to be a trader.. So I won't fight that..

I am looking at options to replace fx.. Spot not working for me. The past week I quit spot and damn I feel so much better and lighter in the head like I used to be trades.

Options fits my criteria cause it creates mm for me.. Regulates my hours.. And can only trade it in a certain way.. So it narrows down trading opportunities which means less time in front of markets... No risk in trying to scalp or look for scalp.

Also I am going to spend more time with career as day job - it's what I was meant to do

So will still give analysis where I can
  • #16,494
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:39am Feb 1, 2013 5:39am
Quoting jaylovin
Spot was takin over my life. And changed me over the last few years. Watching markets while doing day job crippling my already satisfactory career. And by doing
That was losing more than gaining. Never slept at night cause looked for trades in Tokyo session. Scalping continuously all day became a big headache not respecting MM... baby sitting trades when I should have switched off and become human again doing normal social thing... I am not a trader.. You must
Have right mindset to be a trader.. So I won't fight that..

I am looking at options to...
I got work and family so i trade high TF with trend only and go doing normal life stuff "try this"
catch u later
cya
  • #16,495
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:51am Feb 1, 2013 5:51am
Sorry to hear that Jay, but u still can trade and try to trade on higher Tfs. Ofcourse if you dont feel good about trading and if it seriously harm your social life you should stop daytrading.

My situation was completely vice versa. I just couldnt cope with my day job and I have invested many years and a lot of money in myself regarding FX market. I just couldnt imagine myself doing anything else now.

Happiness is not easy to find but you should always be honest to yourself and find a work which makes you and others around you happy and satisfied.
  • #16,496
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:52am Feb 1, 2013 5:52am
Quoting T@rantula
All TFs have been aligned. Great job of aligning octaves together mate


LOL That aligning was a hard job - now come on guys and sell the Euro - do not dare to disappoint Murrey
  • #16,497
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:52am Feb 1, 2013 5:52am
BTW, watch out guys as this is bullish but not so bullish. Too much of consolidation and profit taking could tank the price down.
  • #16,498
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:59am Feb 1, 2013 5:59am
Quoting jaylovin
Spot was takin over my life. And changed me over the last few years. Watching markets while doing day job crippling my already satisfactory career. And by doing
That was losing more than gaining. Never slept at night cause looked for trades in Tokyo session. Scalping continuously all day became a big headache not respecting MM... baby sitting trades when I should have switched off and become human again doing normal social thing... I am not a trader.. You must
Have right mindset to be a trader.. So I won't fight that..

I am looking at options...
Hi Jaylovin,

really sorry to hear that. Yes, mindset is the most important factor and also my biggest enemy in trading. I am often time too biased and that costs me sometimes money, opportunities or time, or all together LOL


I do not know if Options are the right way. Had my experiences with the banks fiddling with the implied volatility and, important for longer term holdings, with theta burning.

I see more disadvantages in Options than in Spot Fx. That is the reason i am here.


Catch you later, mate


Markus
  • #16,499
  • Feb 1, 2013 6:01am Feb 1, 2013 6:01am
Quoting T@rantula
Sorry to hear that Jay, but u still can trade and try to trade on higher Tfs. Ofcourse if you dont feel good about trading and if it seriously harm your social life you should stop daytrading.

My situation was completely vice versa. I just couldnt cope with my day job and I have invested many years and a lot of money in myself regarding FX market. I just couldnt imagine myself doing anything else now.

Happiness is not easy to find but you should always be honest to yourself and find a work which makes you and others around you happy and satisfied....
Right with you... Seems like we are opposite... But I will still analyse. Not giving up yet but spot I will give up. And get back to being human.. So looking at 2 trades a week. No more.. And no trades while working... Nights I can't trade
As options won't let me so it's perfect.. I am still here guys 😀
  • #16,500
  • Edited 6:22am Feb 1, 2013 6:04am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting infinitus
LOL That aligning was a hard job - now come on guys and sell the Euro - do not dare to disappoint Murrey
Yes mate, I can say that it might happen. initial spike was long and then it hasnt retraced to 61.8-78.6 It went to 50.0 but my experience is that we always should aim for deeper retracement. And im talking about SPIKE trading on 1m TF.

It went up on 2nd swing again but was stopped at 3670 resistance. What might happen is US stock markets and futures might tank pulling the pair with themselves. A perfect scenario for bulls is to fade in the price by pulling from the stocks and futures ,increasing the cash flow and thus raising the strength to US temporary.

If longs decide to close their positions today it will be an automatic sell into market so the price will go down as a RETRACEMENT on higher TFs just to prepare bulls for buying into support next week.

Im not saying it will happen but it might happen.
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