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  • #16,461
  • Jan 29, 2013 10:55am Jan 29, 2013 10:55am
Quoting T@rantula
3414 was the low 9 pips above Target price. 3485 broke I guess 3500 will break too. Strong barriers up there at 3490-95 still it might go up.

If 3414 is the retracement we have been looking for thats all for it and 3530 should be reached.


Hi T.,

in my view we have a target zone of 3505 to 3530 right now
  • #16,462
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:03pm Jan 29, 2013 3:03pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi T.,

in my view we have a target zone of 3505 to 3530 right now
Yes as soon as 3460 and 76 got broken it went up, but not much. As we presumed 3495 held. Id like to buy it lower, but lets see what daily close will be.
  • #16,463
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:29pm Jan 29, 2013 3:29pm
3505-35 should be the region where EU will consolidate, but as always we need swing lower in uptrend to buy except when playing breakouts. 3500 is strong, i wont trade a breakout setup nor fade it. Will see daily close and early asia to calculate potential intraday swing retracements.
  • #16,464
  • Jan 29, 2013 7:21pm Jan 29, 2013 7:21pm
ANALYSIS FOR 30th of January 2013.

As we can see EURUSD has broken out of resistance at 3485 but 3495-00 strong resistance still holds. As we can see it on the chart, I have marked potential entry point around 3466 as it stands as 38.2 fib retracement of last upswing. But its not only that. 3461-55 region holds stop orders there as we know 3460 was intraday resistance so stops are place around 3460-55 ( 50.0 fib ret). Below that there will be some stop grabbing and 3430 will be in play ( neutral zone) with 3405 as MAJOR support. 3460-55 region stands as intraday support whereas we have 3466 as a pivot point and 38.2 fib making it a double confluence.

I have manually marked all red lines ( horizontal levels of s/r) and those are VERY important points ( historical and current). Bulls wouldnt like the price below 3432 for sure. Targets stand between 3505-35, lets say 3535 at the moment ( need to see asia) but then again EURUSD can for a BEARISH WEDGE ( rising wedge) up there ( not before 3535-50 I reckon) so we might see shorting opportunities when the price is reached and wedge is formed.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The text can be also read on my Blog.
  • #16,465
  • Jan 30, 2013 3:44am Jan 30, 2013 3:44am
Although EUR failed to retrace to 3466 ( it went to 3480 in early session) 3530 region has been reached. Early birds and those who jumped in even without a retracement are in good profit now. Close above 3540 targets 3570. Remember thou we have ADP release today.
  • #16,466
  • Jan 30, 2013 8:37am Jan 30, 2013 8:37am
I am not able to post much today but as we can see,everything goes as planned. 3540-70 as per analysisa
  • #16,467
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:32pm Jan 30, 2013 4:32pm
ANALYSIS FOR 31th of January 2013 EURUSD

As we can see the price has perfectly followed our technicals. First it came to 3535 meeting our target zone then after the break of 3540 it came to 2nd target 3570 even higher.

There is no bearish wedge, the PA completely erased it. I can see EUR targeting 3615 and 3645 subsequently and it has formed an UPWARD channel, which puts us in the trend on higher TF - H4 particularly.

3535 is interim support, retracement for long entries should be around that level but still we need to pay attention on Asia and London opening to be sure not to miss entry.

3510 will be intraday support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Text also available on my FX Blog.
  • #16,468
  • Jan 31, 2013 12:43am Jan 31, 2013 12:43am
Quoting T@rantula
ANALYSIS FOR 31th of January 2013 EURUSD

As we can see the price has perfectly followed our technicals. First it came to 3535 meeting our target zone then after the break of 3540 it came to 2nd target 3570 even higher.

There is no bearish wedge, the PA completely erased it. I can see EUR targeting 3615 and 3645 subsequently and it has formed an UPWARD channel, which puts us in the trend on higher TF - H4 particularly.

3535 is interim support, retracement for long entries should be around that level but still we need to pay attention on...


take a look daily and weekly 127 is critical around 3585 is due for a retrace 1.326.. may be the target
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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finding A M S
  • #16,469
  • Jan 31, 2013 2:13am Jan 31, 2013 2:13am
Quoting prashant7
take a look daily and weekly 127 is critical around 3585 is due for a retrace 1.326.. may be the target
3600 is the first barrier EUR needs to pass, as always it 00 number psych level. Id go wit 3615 and 45 subsequently but dont forget that retrace can go to 3530-25 intraday if bulls want to be in charge ( intraday). Below 3510 EUR is still bullish but then it opens a door to a possible deeper retracement.
  • #16,470
  • Jan 31, 2013 3:28am Jan 31, 2013 3:28am
I have 3640 as the top for today but only if the pair reaches 3591. In that case 3565 is support and 3604 and 3615 are levels before 3640. This goes for long positions.
  • #16,471
  • Jan 31, 2013 5:16am Jan 31, 2013 5:16am
EU has been bought around 43 and it came to test 3570. Still it needs a lot more momentum to reach that 3591 to further progress to 36+ level.

Break of 3574 will go for a test of DAILY highs and further.

To the downside break of 3530 could retest 3510 as intraday support.
  • #16,472
  • Jan 31, 2013 5:59am Jan 31, 2013 5:59am
Quoting T@rantula
EU has been bought around 43 and it came to test 3570. Still it needs a lot more momentum to reach that 3591 to further progress to 36+ level.

Break of 3574 will go for a test of DAILY highs and further.

To the downside break of 3530 could retest 3510 as intraday support.
yep, agree, break of 3574 will certainly lead to around 3590 (rather weak) to eventually new high

Break of 3530 may lead to accelerated move down
  • #16,473
  • Jan 31, 2013 6:10am Jan 31, 2013 6:10am
Quoting infinitus
yep, agree, break of 3574 will certainly lead to around 3590 (rather weak) to eventually new high

Break of 3530 may lead to accelerated move down
Remember thou NFP is tomorrow. Will you trade it? I may have some setups tomorrow for NFP purely.
  • #16,474
  • Jan 31, 2013 6:15am Jan 31, 2013 6:15am
Quoting T@rantula
Remember thou NFP is tomorrow. Will you trade it? I may have some setups tomorrow for NFP purely.

Do not know yet if able to trade tomorrow due to convention


Catch you later, Markus
  • #16,475
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:15am Jan 31, 2013 8:15am
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  • #16,476
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:22am Jan 31, 2013 8:22am
Quoting T@rantula
Attachment
I am eying 3519 to 3488, but with emphasis to 3519 so far
  • #16,477
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:42am Jan 31, 2013 8:42am
Quoting infinitus
I am eying 3519 to 3488, but with emphasis to 3519 so far
That is deeper retracement yes. And now the question is when will 3600 break? If it breaks today only on VERY STRONG nfp results dollar can benefit, but that would be only temporary effect and pair might drop to that deeper retrace tomorrow. My levels for deeper retracements are 3515-05. Intraday retracement ( on my intraday analysis) has been good so far as 3540 dips have been bought.

I still have a part of long trade in ( I have scaled out) targeting for 3615 today, only because 3540-30 hasnt been taken. Break of 3592 should give us that.
  • #16,478
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:17am Jan 31, 2013 9:17am
Quoting T@rantula
That is deeper retracement yes. And now the question is when will 3600 break? If it breaks today only on VERY STRONG nfp results dollar can benefit, but that would be only temporary effect and pair might drop to that deeper retrace tomorrow. My levels for deeper retracements are 3515-05. Intraday retracement ( on my intraday analysis) has been good so far as 3540 dips have been bought.

I still have a part of long trade in ( I have scaled out) targeting for 3615 today, only because 3540-30 hasnt been taken. Break of 3592 should give us that.
from Market Profile perspective, 3519 is Value area low (VaL) from yesterday. Break to the downside may result in a much deeper correction or outright reversal. In this case the POC's 3457 and 3447 will come into play


From an EW perspective on 1h chart it looks like we have finished an impulse to the downside and are now up in an ABC-flat correction, where we are now in its wave C.

On TF's lower than 1h there are multiple interpretations.
  • #16,479
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:27am Jan 31, 2013 9:27am
Quoting infinitus
from Market Profile perspective, 3519 is Value area low (VaL) from yesterday. Break to the downside may result in a much deeper correction or outright reversal. In this case the POC's 3457 and 3447 will come into play


From an EW perspective on 1h chart it looks like we have finished an impulse to the downside and are now up in an ABC-flat correction, where we are now in its wave C.

On TF's lower than 1h there are multiple interpretations.
maybe this
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  • #16,480
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:46am Jan 31, 2013 9:46am
Quoting infinitus
maybe this
Yes we should stick to that bullish outbreak scenario, would like to see that break from yesterday highs.
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