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  • #26,401
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:25am Jan 31, 2013 8:25am
Quoting chiknthief
The bulls are very stubborn. Struggling to avoid going below trendline. They keep buying when it hits the trendline. And thats a good thing, it give us bears more bulls to run out later adding yet more fuel to the fire. Its coming.
It is bearish unless this goes above 1.0475.
  • #26,402
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:31am Jan 31, 2013 8:31am
Quoting DaddyBear
Daily is moderate weak. There is a downside risk but IMO it will be limited.
The main reason of the bears is that the daily LTL break. The break can be read in two ways. It could be a breakout like the bears are looking for. The other way is by looking at a bigger picture within a weekly context. The TL break is merely a railway switch to a new and steeper uptrend IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,403
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:33am Jan 31, 2013 8:33am
Good day for me today ... Goodnight guys Good Luck!
  • #26,404
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:35am Jan 31, 2013 8:35am
1.042 or so is held 18h so far...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #26,405
  • Edited 8:52am Jan 31, 2013 8:36am | Edited 8:52am
Quoting mry2001
It is bearish unless this goes above 1.0475.
If 1.0475 is indeed a demarcation line, the turning point would be well below that level. Instead of looking at an imaginary line, I'd try to find that turning point instead.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,406
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:37am Jan 31, 2013 8:37am
Quoting DaddyBear
Daily is moderate weak. There is a downside risk but IMO it will be limited.
limited 10380 maybe
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #26,407
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:38am Jan 31, 2013 8:38am
Quoting mima
1.042 or so is held 18h so far...
Welcome, mima. Do you think 1.042 is the new R/S? -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,408
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:39am Jan 31, 2013 8:39am
Quoting forexalien
limited 10380 maybe
In order to make the bears happy, I'd say 1.034xx would cheer them up for a while.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,409
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:48am Jan 31, 2013 8:48am
Weekly is forming a Doji. It may not be the bottom but could be seen as a brake IMO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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daddybearforex. com
  • #26,410
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:49am Jan 31, 2013 8:49am
Quoting DaddyBear
Welcome, mima. Do you think 1.042 is the new R/S? -DB-

It is kind of in the midle of supply and demand...hard to predict market maker's interpretation of next news...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #26,411
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:56am Jan 31, 2013 8:56am
Quoting DaddyBear
Weekly is forming a Doji. It may not be the bottom but could be seen as a brake IMO.
Current double top pattern can be seen as a repetition of the larger double top. My interpretation of such double top is not the same as the conventional reversal view. I see it a continuation pattern.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359643675
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,412
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:59am Jan 31, 2013 8:59am
Quoting DaddyBear
Chik, are you looking for a collapse? What is your target or bottomless at all?
At present we're kinda in a mostly bearish no mans land. Below daily MAC (bear zone) which stands @ 10465 and smack dab in the middle of the weekly MAC (neutral zone) (top @ 10490 - bottom @ 10339) Monthly in neutral zone too. Nothing in bullish zone other than TF's less than one hour -------> record commercial net short (extreme) and prices still near 90% total range suggests this market is overblown/overvalued. MONTHLY CHART - Just a 62% retracement of the prior (most recent) long term leg up comes in @ 9211. The 38% line of the complete bull run (monthly chart) comes in @ 9134. The initial leg down starting back in 7/2011 after which we've gone into a prolonged trading range, projects down to the 1.618 line @ 8339. The bottom could very well drop out of this thing. Those numbers seem unrealistic but I've learned that things that seem unrealistic many times become the reality. My first target would be the 9200 area.
  • #26,413
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:10am Jan 31, 2013 9:10am
The COT setup in the US Dollar index is in a very bullish position. Hasn't kicked in just yet. So when it does, that may well be the trigger. Keep your eyes peeled.
  • #26,414
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:20am Jan 31, 2013 9:20am
As long as the commercials remain in this position, the upside is very limited and the downside is not so limited.
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  • #26,415
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:28am Jan 31, 2013 9:28am
DB - I got june put options - I can wait until june if need be. Or buy even more puts. Its a great way to ride out all the market noise and still accomplish what you set out to do. This market WILL go down, sometime. Every run up is a great opportunity to buy more cheap puts.
  • #26,416
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:42am Jan 31, 2013 9:42am
Quoting Rampage
Hi DB

I see three things right now,

1. I suck at making posts and want to improve it
2.Not enough discussion about current price as I would like to know more about USD-Bear's view regarding price being critical
seems everyone else has a direction without any reason to place a trade

and

3.The number I posted is meaningless to me it was was just to mark H1 bounce and may prove useful later on if price changes
direction on H4

Remember I am trying to trade patiently
Rampage I longed it last night twice live, and felt I gave my reasons. First took 20 pips, then bought it again same level. Closed half today, holding half now. So, another 50 pips, plus still long. Did it live, not after the fact. Will scream bear when I see it.

If not, I would be happy to explain, just ask my friend.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #26,417
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:45am Jan 31, 2013 9:45am
Quoting chiknthief
DB - I got june put options - I can wait until june if need be. Or buy even more puts. Its a great way to ride out all the market noise and still accomplish what you set out to do. This market WILL go down, sometime. Every run up is a great opportunity to buy more cheap puts.
Now there we go guy who steals chickens! I agree long term that is nice trade.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #26,418
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:46am Jan 31, 2013 9:46am
Quoting DaddyBear
The main reason of the bears is that the daily LTL break. The break can be read in two ways. It could be a breakout like the bears are looking for. The other way is by looking at a bigger picture within a weekly context. The TL break is merely a railway switch to a new and steeper uptrend IMO.
DaddyBear, I hinted at this last night. You apparently see it as well.

Go ahead and tell the bears what the weekly target would be.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #26,419
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:53am Jan 31, 2013 9:53am
Long term - this market still looks more 'TOPPY' than it looks bullish. I think this current short term rally is a text book selling opportunity. Buying more puts.
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  • #26,420
  • Jan 31, 2013 10:00am Jan 31, 2013 10:00am
added short @ 1.0440 (prob scalping this one, tight stop)

AU H1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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